PythiaBasketballBETA
PythiaBasketball is a probabilistic model for professional basketball, NBA and European. Rather than pick a winner, Pythia estimates the range of outcomes for a game: who wins, by how much, and how many points are scored, and where those probabilities differ from the market at the line the market offers.
A basketball game is about a hundred possessions a side, so the outcome is a distribution: a projected score with a spread of likely margins and totals around it. Every game is expressed as calibrated probabilities: the chance each team wins, covers a given spread, or the game goes over a given total.
A spread or total probability only means something at a specific line. We compare our probability with the price on offer at that exact line, after removing the bookmaker margin, and publish a pick only when the edge is large enough. No price means no pick.
Every published pick freezes its line and its price before tip-off and is graded against that line, never re-graded. Voids (pushes, postponements) are shown, never deleted. The full record is on the Validation page.
Today's games are on Games, competitions on Leagues, and each club's form on Teams. How we settle every pick is on Grading rules.
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