Arkansas hosts Arkansas-Pine Bluff on 3 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Razorbacks the clear favourite, rating them 96% to win, a reflection of their dominant season performance and high scoring output. Arkansas has finished the season with a 4-1 record over the last five games, including victories over High Point 94-88 at home and Hawaii 97-78 at home, and a recent loss to Arizona 88-109 away on 26 March 2026, showing a consistent ability to win at home. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, meanwhile, has a 2-3 record in their last five outings, with a win over Alcorn State 83-48 away on 5 March 2026 but losses to Southern Univ. 81-84 away on 12 March 2026 and Jackson State 78-81 away on 3 March 2026, indicating a more uneven form. The model projects a 90-70 scoreline, with 90 points for Arkansas and 70 for Arkansas-Pine Bluff, totaling 160.4 points, and assigns a 1% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arkansas winWon
95.5%fair 1.05
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas-Pine Bluff winLost
4.5%fair 22.29
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Arkansas total 101.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas over 101.5
Over 101.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 101.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.57
Under
Bet365
2.30
1xBet
2.25
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Arkansas total 105.5Actual: Arkansas over 105.5
Over 105.5
no forecast
@ 2.47
Under 105.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.47
Pinnacle
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Betano
1.42
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 57.5Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 57.5
Over 57.5
89.7%
@ 1.35+21.2pp
Under 57.5
10.3%
@ 3.10-21.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.75
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 61.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 61.5
Over 61.5
80.7%
@ 1.94+30.7pp
Under 61.5
19.3%
@ 1.91-30.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.77
Arkansas-Pine Bluff total 65.5Actual: Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 65.5
Over 65.5
67.9%
@ 2.65+32.4pp
Under 65.5
32.1%
@ 1.44-32.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Betano
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.44
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.42
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Arkansas -42.5Actual: Arkansas -42.5
ARKA -42.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
ARKA +42.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
1xBet
2.07
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.95
Betfair
1.80
ARKA
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Marathon Be
1.77
1xBet
1.67
Spread Arkansas -39.5 · main lineActual: Arkansas -39.5
ARKA -39.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ARKA +39.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Marathon Be
1.68
Bet365
1.64
ARKA
Bet365
2.12
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.83
Betfair
1.83
Spread Arkansas -36.5Actual: Arkansas -36.5
ARKA -36.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
ARKA +36.5
no forecast
@ 2.65
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.43
ARKA
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ArkansasArkansas-Pine Bluff
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Arkansas over 62
99.8%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+49.8pp
Won
Arkansas over 63
99.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+49.7pp
Won
Arkansas over 62.5
99.7%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+48.9pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 64.5
71.4%
2.27
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
-
+31.6pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 62.5
77.8%
1.89
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
+31.4pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 61.5
80.7%
1.85
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+30.7pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 60.5
83.3%
1.80
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Bet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.74
Betano
1.65
-
+29.7pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 62
80.1%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+29.6pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 63.5
74.7%
1.95
Betano
2.07
Bet365
1.83
-
-
-
+27.9pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 63
77.1%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+27.7pp
Lost
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 58.5
87.8%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 59.5
85.7%
1.51
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 57.5
89.7%
1.34
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 56.5
91.4%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Betano
1.28
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Arkansas -14
70.8%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff over 55.5
92.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Under 169
70.9%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.68
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+16.2pp
Won
Under 169.5
71.5%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.63
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.44
-
+15.8pp
Won
Arkansas -13
73.8%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Arkansas -13.5
71.7%
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Arkansas -12.5
74.6%
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Under 170
73.0%
1.60
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Under 175
82.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 171
75.1%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.6pp
Won
Under 172
77.0%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Under 175.5
82.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Under 171.5
75.6%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
Under 173
78.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 172.5
77.5%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 173.5
79.3%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Under 174
80.6%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
Under 174.5
81.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 170.5
73.6%
1.46
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+10.3pp
Won
Under 176.5
84.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Won
Over 139.5
90.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Over 141.5
87.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Over 142.5
86.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Over 144.5
83.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.6pp
Won
Over 146.5
80.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Over 149.5
74.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Arkansas over 80.5
83.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Over 147.5
78.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.3pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 79.5
82.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Arkansas over 81.5
81.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Won
Over 151.5
70.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 77.5
76.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Won
Arkansas over 82.5
78.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
Arkansas over 83.5
75.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-17.7pp
Won
Arkansas-Pine Bluff under 75.5
70.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-20.0pp
Won
Arkansas over 84.5
71.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-20.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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