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Ball State W vs Arkansas State W Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 84-74
18-17 18-15 25-21 23-21
Position#167
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Ball State W 🏆
USA
Vs
66%
34%
■ BALL 66%■ ARKA 34%
Pythia win probability
Projected 73-69
Projected total 142.3
Arkansas State W
USA
Position#243
Record-
FormLWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA Women
Women2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Ball State W hosts Arkansas State W on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA Women competition, with the Pythia model designating Ball State as the favourite and predicting a 66% chance of a home win. Ball State has a 4-1 record in its last five games, including a 75-63 win over Bowling Green and a 78-71 victory away at Toledo, while Arkansas State sits at 3-2 in its recent five, highlighted by a 71-53 win over Cleveland State and an 83-72 win over IPFW; the teams have met once before, with Ball State winning 68-66 in the 3 November 2025 encounter. The model projects a 73-69 scoreline for the contest, giving Ball State a 66% probability of covering the spread and a 34% chance that Arkansas State will win, with a 5% likelihood of overtime and a projected total of 142.3 points. The game will likely see Ball State's offensive output slightly outpace Arkansas State's, as the projected points suggest a close but decisive contest. The next game will hinge on whether Arkansas State can replicate its recent high-scoring performances against Ball State's defensive resilience.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ball State W winWon
66.1%fair 1.51
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State W winLost
33.9%fair 2.95
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ball State WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy W
#49
W
87-86
87
86
+1
H07/02
NCAA Women
Eastern Michigan W
#234
W
83-68
83
68
+15
A10/02
NCAA Women
Bowling Green W
#174
W
82-67
82
67
+15
H14/02
NCAA Women
Buffalo W
#363
W
88-55
88
55
+33
A18/02
NCAA Women
Miami (Ohio) W
#32
L
64-68
64
68
-4
A21/02
NCAA Women
Akron W
#344
W
88-55
88
55
+33
H25/02
NCAA Women
Ohio Bobcats W
#167
W
86-85
86
85
+1
H28/02
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
W
78-71
78
71
+7
A07/03
NCAA Women
Bowling Green W
#174
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H11/03
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
L
65-69
65
69
-4
H13/03
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
26-18
22-28
21-18
19-11
23-21
21-10
20-26
17-19
19-9
20-19
26-20
20-11
21-16
24-15
23-13
11-10
13-17
26-27
14-14
17-12
25-14
23-18
23-11
22-17
16-20
22-15
26-33
16-18
19-8
21-13
22-32
19-15
23-13
11-15
22-20
19-10
10-20
20-22
16-17
148.3Avg total
79.6Scored
68.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)79.668.7148.3+10.980%
Last 5 (5)78.468.6147.0+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)64.879.4144.2-14.620%
vs Weaker (24)79.664.4144.0+15.288%
Arkansas State WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas State Bobcats W
#271
W
75-61
75
61
+14
A19/02
NCAA Women
Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns W
#360
W
92-66
92
66
+26
A21/02
NCAA Women
Troy W
#49
L
54-61
54
61
-7
H24/02
NCAA Women
Texas State Bobcats W
#271
W
87-53
87
53
+34
H27/02
NCAA Women
Louisiana Monroe W
#202
W
76-68
76
68
+8
H07/03
NCAA Women
Troy W
#49
L
73-83
73
83
-10
A08/03
NCAA Women
Radford W
#114
W
83-52
83
52
+31
H24/03
NCAA Women
IPFW W
#139
W
83-72
83
72
+11
H27/03
NCAA Women
Cleveland State W
#82
W
71-53
71
53
+18
H31/03
NCAA Women
Marshall Thundering W
#52
L
62-69
62
69
-7
H02/04
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-13
28-20
10-12
11-16
15-7
29-18
30-28
18-13
12-20
14-17
17-9
11-15
26-9
22-14
24-8
15-22
20-13
25-17
19-18
12-20
25-23
7-20
21-21
20-19
16-6
26-16
19-22
22-8
32-22
23-10
17-17
11-23
19-7
11-16
25-10
16-20
6-17
19-15
17-16
20-21
139.4Avg total
75.6Scored
63.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)75.663.8139.4+11.870%
Last 5 (5)74.465.8140.2+8.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)67.867.4135.2+0.440%
vs Weaker (19)80.663.4144.0+17.295%
Over/Under 126Actual: Over 126
Over 126
84.2%
Under 126
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 131Actual: Over 131
Over 131
75.5%
Under 131
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 136Actual: Over 136
Over 136
64.7%
Under 136
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Ball State W total 66.5Actual: Ball State W over 66.5
Over 66.5
75.4%
Under 66.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ball State W total 70.5Actual: Ball State W over 70.5
Over 70.5
61.5%
Under 70.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ball State W total 74.5Actual: Ball State W over 74.5
Over 74.5
46.0%
Under 74.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State W total 56.5Actual: Arkansas State W over 56.5
Over 56.5
88.4%
Under 56.5
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State W total 60.5Actual: Arkansas State W over 60.5
Over 60.5
78.9%
Under 60.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas State W total 64.5Actual: Arkansas State W over 64.5
Over 64.5
65.9%
Under 64.5
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Ball State W -3Actual: Ball State W -3
BALL -3
57.7%
ARKA +3
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
BALL
No market prices yet.
ARKA
No market prices yet.
Spread Ball State W 0Actual: Ball State W 0
BALL 0
66.1%
ARKA 0
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
BALL
No market prices yet.
ARKA
No market prices yet.
Spread Ball State W +3Actual: Ball State W +3
BALL +3
74.2%
ARKA -3
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
BALL
No market prices yet.
ARKA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: +6.0+6.0Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +4.1+4.1Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -2.1-2.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: +6.0+6.0Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: +4.1+4.1Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +0.9+0.9Q4: -2.1-2.1
Ball State WArkansas State W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Ball State WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Troy W
#49
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H07/02
NCAA Women
Eastern Michigan W
#234
W
42-32
42
32
+10
A10/02
NCAA Women
Bowling Green W
#174
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H14/02
NCAA Women
Buffalo W
#363
W
41-27
41
27
+14
A18/02
NCAA Women
Miami (Ohio) W
#32
L
24-27
24
27
-3
A21/02
NCAA Women
Akron W
#344
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H25/02
NCAA Women
Ohio Bobcats W
#167
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H28/02
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
W
35-26
35
26
+9
A07/03
NCAA Women
Bowling Green W
#174
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H11/03
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H13/03
NCAA Women
67.4Avg total
37.3Scored
30.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.329.767.0+7.673%-
Last 30 at home (15)38.429.768.1+8.773%-
Last 30 away (15)36.229.765.9+6.573%-
Last 10 (10)37.330.167.4+7.280%-
Last 5 (5)37.229.466.6+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)30.237.467.6-7.220%-
vs Weaker (24)38.228.566.7+9.883%-
Arkansas State WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas State Bobcats W
#271
W
54-33
54
33
+21
A19/02
NCAA Women
Louisiana's Ragin' Cajuns W
#360
W
44-25
44
25
+19
A21/02
NCAA Women
Troy W
#49
L
26-37
26
37
-11
H24/02
NCAA Women
Texas State Bobcats W
#271
W
48-23
48
23
+25
H27/02
NCAA Women
Louisiana Monroe W
#202
W
45-30
45
30
+15
H07/03
NCAA Women
Troy W
#49
L
32-43
32
43
-11
A08/03
NCAA Women
Radford W
#114
W
42-22
42
22
+20
H24/03
NCAA Women
IPFW W
#139
W
55-32
55
32
+23
H27/03
NCAA Women
Cleveland State W
#82
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H31/03
NCAA Women
Marshall Thundering W
#52
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H02/04
NCAA Women
70.1Avg total
40.1Scored
30.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.832.171.0+6.770%-
Last 30 at home (17)37.429.266.5+8.276%-
Last 30 away (13)40.836.076.8+4.862%-
Last 10 (10)40.130.070.1+10.170%-
Last 5 (5)36.830.467.2+6.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)31.734.366.0-2.630%-
vs Weaker (19)42.431.173.5+11.389%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Ball State W wins
0
Arkansas State W wins
DateGameScore
04/11/25Arkansas State W v Ball State W66-68
Ball State Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/26HToledo W65-69
11/03/26HBowling Green W75-63
07/03/26AToledo W78-71
28/02/26HOhio Bobcats W86-85
25/02/26HAkron W88-55
21/02/26AMiami (Ohio) W64-68
18/02/26ABuffalo W88-55
14/02/26HBowling Green W82-67
10/02/26AEastern Michigan W83-68
07/02/26HTroy W87-86
Arkansas State Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/04/26HMarshall Thundering W62-69
31/03/26HCleveland State W71-53
27/03/26HIPFW W83-72
24/03/26HRadford W83-52
08/03/26ATroy W73-83
07/03/26HLouisiana Monroe W76-68
27/02/26HTexas State Bobcats W87-53
24/02/26HTroy W54-61
21/02/26ALouisiana's Ragin' Cajuns W92-66
19/02/26ATexas State Bobcats W75-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ball State W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Arkansas State W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMKC W110100%120.040.0+80.0
2 Yale Bulldogs W110100%111.038.0+73.0
3 Louisville W110100%119.047.0+72.0
4 Oakland W110100%104.032.0+72.0
5 South Carolina State W110100%112.042.0+70.0
6 Longwood W110100%96.027.0+69.0
7 Utah Tech W110100%107.039.0+68.0
8 UTRGV W110100%114.047.0+67.0
9 UConn W110100%100.035.0+65.0
10 Western Carolina W110100%96.031.0+65.0
11 Detroit Titans W110100%94.030.0+64.0
12 UMBC Retrievers W110100%92.029.0+63.0
13 George Washington W110100%84.023.0+61.0
14 Samford Bulldogs W110100%102.042.0+60.0
15 New Haven Chargers W110100%103.044.0+59.0
16 Vanderbilt W110100%112.053.0+59.0
17 Vermont W110100%96.037.0+59.0
18 St. John's (N.Y.) W110100%95.037.0+58.0
19 Central Arkansas W110100%97.040.0+57.0
20 Morgan State W110100%103.047.0+56.0
21 Tulane Green Wave W110100%92.038.0+54.0
22 Army W110100%81.028.0+53.0
23 Bryant University W110100%75.025.0+50.0
24 Charleston W110100%92.043.0+49.0
25 New Hampshire Wildcats W110100%87.041.0+46.0
26 Virginia Tech W110100%85.039.0+46.0
27 Montana State W110100%82.038.0+44.0
28 Oklahoma State W110100%81.039.0+42.0
29 Ole Miss W110100%80.038.0+42.0
30 Virginia Cavaliers W110100%87.045.0+42.0
31 Chattanooga Mocs W110100%85.044.0+41.0
32 East Texas A&M Lions W110100%81.040.0+41.0
33 William & Mary W110100%89.048.0+41.0
34 Georgia W110100%92.053.0+39.0
35 Butler W110100%108.071.0+37.0
36 Boise State W110100%84.048.0+36.0
37 Jacksonville St. W110100%75.039.0+36.0
38 Northern Kentucky Norse W110100%84.049.0+35.0
39 Stony Brook W110100%73.039.0+34.0
40 Oregon W110100%87.054.0+33.0
41 USC Trojans W110100%100.068.0+32.0
42 Florida State W110100%81.051.0+30.0
43 Fordham W110100%70.040.0+30.0
44 Kennesaw State W110100%72.042.0+30.0
45 NC State W110100%80.050.0+30.0
46 Nebraska Cornhuskers W110100%81.054.0+27.0
47 South Florida W110100%80.054.0+26.0
48 Southern Mississippi W110100%85.059.0+26.0
49 Idaho Vandals W110100%71.047.0+24.0
50 Notre Dame W110100%99.075.0+24.0
51 UMass Lowell W110100%77.053.0+24.0
52 Florida Gators W110100%83.060.0+23.0
53 Monmouth W110100%63.040.0+23.0
54 Iona W110100%76.054.0+22.0
55 Clemson W110100%68.047.0+21.0
56 Minnesota W110100%82.062.0+20.0
57 UCLA W110100%73.053.0+20.0
58 Utah State W110100%61.045.0+16.0
59 Washington W110100%79.063.0+16.0
60 Austin Peay W110100%62.047.0+15.0
61 Drexel W110100%62.047.0+15.0
62 Georgia Tech W110100%80.065.0+15.0
63 Stanford Cardinal W110100%84.069.0+15.0
64 Coastal Carolina W110100%68.054.0+14.0
65 Mcneese State W110100%65.053.0+12.0
66 Oklahoma Sooners W110100%91.079.0+12.0
67 Coppin State W110100%80.069.0+11.0
68 Siena W110100%82.071.0+11.0
69 Winthrop W110100%57.046.0+11.0
70 Holy Cross W110100%64.054.0+10.0
71 Houston Cougars W110100%73.065.0+8.0
72 South Carolina W110100%101.093.0+8.0
73 Wake Forest W110100%65.058.0+7.0
74 Columbia W110100%71.065.0+6.0
75 NJIT W110100%50.045.0+5.0
76 Marshall Thundering W110100%74.070.0+4.0
77 Old Dominion W110100%62.058.0+4.0
78 Buffalo W110100%82.081.0+1.0
79 Cleveland State W110100%62.061.0+1.0
80 Seattle U Redhawks W110100%63.062.0+1.0
81 South Alabama W110100%75.074.0+1.0
82 Virginia State W110100%63.062.0+1.0
83 Akron W1010%74.075.0-1.0
84 Georgia State W1010%81.082.0-1.0
85 New Mexico W1010%62.063.0-1.0
86 Norfolk State W1010%62.063.0-1.0
87 Penn State W1010%61.062.0-1.0
88 Central Michigan W1010%58.062.0-4.0
89 UMass W1010%70.074.0-4.0
90 Rider Broncs W1010%45.050.0-5.0
91 Davidson W1010%65.071.0-6.0
92 South Carolina Upstate W1010%58.065.0-7.0
93 Hampton W1010%65.073.0-8.0
94 Maryland W1010%93.0101.0-8.0
95 Boston College W1010%54.064.0-10.0
96 Brown Bears W1010%71.082.0-11.0
97 Cheyney Wolves W1010%69.080.0-11.0
98 Newberry W1010%46.057.0-11.0
99 North Carolina W1010%79.091.0-12.0
100 Texas A&M-Kingsville W1010%53.065.0-12.0
101 Western Michigan W1010%54.068.0-14.0
102 Arizona Wildcats W1010%69.084.0-15.0
103 Campbell Fighting Camels W1010%47.062.0-15.0
104 Hofstra W1010%65.080.0-15.0
105 Marist W1010%47.062.0-15.0
106 UC San Diego Tritons W1010%63.079.0-16.0
107 Westminster UT W1010%45.061.0-16.0
108 Harvard Crimson W1010%62.082.0-20.0
109 Lehigh W1010%53.073.0-20.0
110 Radford W1010%47.068.0-21.0
111 Dominican Chargers W1010%54.076.0-22.0
112 Binghamton W1010%40.063.0-23.0
113 Bucknell W1010%60.083.0-23.0
114 St. Anselm Hawks W1010%53.077.0-24.0
115 St. Martin's W1010%47.071.0-24.0
116 Villanova W1010%75.099.0-24.0
117 Furman Paladins W1010%54.080.0-26.0
118 Mississippi Christian W1010%59.085.0-26.0
119 San Jose State W1010%54.081.0-27.0
120 Merrimack Warriors W1010%51.081.0-30.0
121 Niagara W1010%40.070.0-30.0
122 Shorter W1010%42.072.0-30.0
123 Wofford W1010%50.080.0-30.0
124 UNLV Lady Rebels W1010%68.0100.0-32.0
125 Hawaii W1010%54.087.0-33.0
126 Molloy W1010%39.073.0-34.0
127 Defiance College1010%49.084.0-35.0
128 Bushnell W1010%48.084.0-36.0
129 Oglethorpe W1010%39.075.0-36.0
130 Tennessee Tech W1010%71.0108.0-37.0
131 West Georgia W1010%53.092.0-39.0
132 Chowan W1010%48.089.0-41.0
133 Oklahoma Christian W1010%40.081.0-41.0
134 Virginia-Wise W1010%44.085.0-41.0
135 Alcorn State W1010%38.080.0-42.0
136 Md.-East. Shore W1010%45.087.0-42.0
137 Southern Jaguars W1010%39.081.0-42.0
138 Black Hills W1010%38.082.0-44.0
139 N. Carolina Central W1010%39.085.0-46.0
140 New England Pilgrims W1010%41.087.0-46.0
141 Berry Vikings W1010%43.092.0-49.0
142 MIT Engineers W1010%25.075.0-50.0
143 St. Thomas Aquinas W1010%28.081.0-53.0
144 Texas W1010%38.092.0-54.0
145 Washington Adventist W1010%47.0103.0-56.0
146 Hendrix College W1010%40.097.0-57.0
147 Lafayette W1010%37.095.0-58.0
148 Keene State W1010%37.096.0-59.0
149 Lipscomb Bisons W1010%53.0112.0-59.0
150 Mitchell W1010%44.0103.0-59.0
151 Montevallo Falcons W1010%42.0102.0-60.0
152 District of Columbia W1010%23.084.0-61.0
153 Stevenson W1010%29.092.0-63.0
154 Michigan-Dearborn W1010%30.094.0-64.0
155 Carolina University W1010%31.096.0-65.0
156 Cornell W1010%35.0100.0-65.0
157 Arlington Baptist Patriots W1010%47.0114.0-67.0
158 Life Pacific W1010%39.0107.0-68.0
159 Apprentice Builders W1010%27.096.0-69.0
160 Trinity College of Jacksonville W1010%42.0112.0-70.0
161 Bellarmine W1010%47.0119.0-72.0
162 Cleary University W1010%32.0104.0-72.0
163 Elms College W1010%38.0111.0-73.0
164 Baker Wildcats W1010%40.0120.0-80.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 164 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ball State W1818252384
Arkansas State W1715212174
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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