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Charleston vs Southern W. Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 111-55
0-0 52-26 0-0 59-29
Position#15
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Charleston 🏆
USA
Vs
96%
■ CHAR 96%■ SOUT 4%
Pythia win probability
Projected 87-66
Projected total 152.7
Southern W.
USA
Position#409
Record-
FormLLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Charleston faces Southern W. on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Charleston as the clear favourite because it rates them 96% to win, a stark contrast to Southern W.'s 4% chance; the model's confidence stems from Charleston's strong recent form, winning four of their last five games, while Southern W. has lost all five of theirs, including defeats to USC Upstate 63-98, Citadel 73-98 and Kennesaw State 66-121, all on the road; Charleston's last five include a loss to Towson 56-81 at home on 8 March 2026, a win over NC Wilmington 79-76 away on 1 March 2026 and a win over Hampton 85-71 away on 26 February 2026; the Pythia projection sets the score at 87-66, a total of 152.7 points, with a 1% chance of overtime, and gives Charleston a 96% probability of covering the home line; Southern W. is projected to score 66 points, and the game ends with Charleston's 87-point performance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Charleston winWon
96.1%fair 1.04
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Southern W. winLost
3.9%fair 25.53
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CharlestonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northeastern
#358
W
89-84
89
84
+5
A31/01
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
78-62
78
62
+16
H06/02
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
64-76
64
76
-12
H10/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
L
62-66
62
66
-4
H13/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
62-57
62
57
+5
A15/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
74-61
74
61
+13
A20/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H21/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
85-71
85
71
+14
A26/02
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
W
79-76
79
76
+3
A02/03
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
56-81
56
81
-25
H08/03
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
38-40
0-0
51-44
0-0
41-37
0-0
37-25
0-0
32-42
0-0
32-34
0-0
30-37
0-0
32-29
0-0
36-28
0-0
26-29
0-0
41-26
0-0
33-35
0-0
39-35
0-0
35-28
0-0
42-30
0-0
43-41
0-0
23-35
0-0
56-41
0-0
32-43
0-0
24-38
142.0Avg total
72.3Scored
69.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.369.7142.0+2.670%
Last 5 (5)73.670.4144.0+3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)68.976.1145.0-7.329%
vs Similar (17)75.874.2150.0+1.571%
vs Weaker (6)81.567.5149.0+14.0100%
Southern W.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USC Upstate
#326
W
82-72
82
72
+10
A25/11
NCAA
Furman
#98
L
49-89
49
89
-40
A03/12
NCAA
Mercer
#106
L
85-96
85
96
-11
A06/12
NCAA
Wofford
#183
L
55-75
55
75
-20
A29/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#357
L
63-95
63
95
-32
A20/11
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
66-121
66
121
-55
A08/12
NCAA
Citadel
#302
L
73-98
73
98
-25
A10/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
63-98
63
98
-35
A18/12
NCAA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0-0
39-30
0-0
43-42
0-0
26-37
0-0
23-52
0-0
36-47
0-0
49-49
0-0
34-20
0-0
21-55
0-0
39-43
0-0
24-52
0-0
22-65
0-0
44-56
0-0
40-54
0-0
33-44
0-0
18-49
0-0
45-49
160.0Avg total
67.0Scored
93.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (8)67.093.0160.0-26.012%
Last 5 (5)64.097.4161.4-33.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)69.795.7165.3-26.017%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
Over/Under 142Actual: Over 142
Over 142
75.1%
Under 142
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
64.0%
Under 147
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
51.6%
Under 152
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Charleston total 73Actual: Charleston over 73
Over 73
92.4%
Under 73
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleston total 77Actual: Charleston over 77
Over 77
84.7%
Under 77
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Charleston total 81Actual: Charleston over 81
Over 81
72.8%
Under 81
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern W. total 66Actual: Southern W. under 66
Over 66
49.4%
Under 66
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern W. total 70Actual: Southern W. under 70
Over 70
33.3%
Under 70
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern W. total 74Actual: Southern W. under 74
Over 74
20.0%
Under 74
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Charleston -3Actual: Charleston -3
CHAR -3
94.4%
SOUT +3
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
CHAR
No market prices yet.
SOUT
No market prices yet.
Spread Charleston 0Actual: Charleston 0
CHAR 0
96.1%
SOUT 0
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
CHAR
No market prices yet.
SOUT
No market prices yet.
Spread Charleston +3Actual: Charleston +3
CHAR +3
97.5%
SOUT -3
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
CHAR
No market prices yet.
SOUT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-18-9+0+9+18Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -11.4-11.4Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -14.6-14.6
-18-9+0+9+18Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -11.4-11.4Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -14.6-14.6
CharlestonSouthern W.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CharlestonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Northeastern
#358
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A31/01
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H06/02
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H10/02
NCAA
Hofstra
#54
L
30-37
30
37
-7
H13/02
NCAA
Campbell
#222
W
36-28
36
28
+8
A15/02
NCAA
N. Carolina A&T
#299
W
41-26
41
26
+15
A20/02
NCAA
Monmouth
#159
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H21/02
NCAA
Hampton
#276
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A26/02
NCAA
NC Wilmington
#17
L
23-35
23
35
-12
A02/03
NCAA
Towson
#157
L
32-43
32
43
-11
H08/03
NCAA
70.7Avg total
35.4Scored
35.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.735.269.8-0.547%-
Last 30 at home (18)34.436.070.4-1.644%-
Last 30 away (12)35.133.969.0+1.250%-
Last 10 (10)35.435.370.7+0.150%-
Last 5 (5)35.433.869.2+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)30.740.070.7-9.30%-
vs Similar (17)34.133.567.6+0.659%-
vs Weaker (6)40.834.275.0+6.767%-
Southern W.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
USC Upstate
#326
W
39-30
39
30
+9
A25/11
NCAA
Furman
#98
L
26-37
26
37
-11
A03/12
NCAA
Mercer
#106
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A06/12
NCAA
Wofford
#183
W
34-20
34
20
+14
A29/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#357
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A20/11
NCAA
Kennesaw State
#113
L
22-65
22
65
-43
A08/12
NCAA
Citadel
#302
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/12
NCAA
USC Upstate
#274
L
18-49
18
49
-31
A18/12
NCAA
74.9Avg total
31.8Scored
43.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (8)31.843.174.9-11.425%-
Last 30 at homeno games
Last 30 away (8)31.843.174.9-11.425%-
Last 10 (8)31.843.174.9-11.425%-
Last 5 (5)30.646.276.8-15.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)30.247.077.2-16.817%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Charleston wins
0
Southern W. wins
No previous meetings.
Charlestonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HTowson56-81
02/03/26ANC Wilmington79-76
26/02/26AHampton85-71
21/02/26HMonmouth74-63
20/02/26AN. Carolina A&T74-61
15/02/26ACampbell62-57
13/02/26HHofstra62-66
10/02/26HNC Wilmington64-76
06/02/26HN. Carolina A&T78-62
31/01/26ANortheastern89-84
Southern W.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/12/25AUSC Upstate63-98
10/12/25ACitadel73-98
08/12/25AKennesaw State66-121
20/11/24AUSC Upstate63-95
29/12/23AWofford55-75
06/12/20AMercer85-96
03/12/20AFurman49-89
25/11/20AUSC Upstate82-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Charleston
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Southern W.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 7 Losses (last 8)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 West Florida Argonauts110100%127.042.0+85.0
2 Sacred Heart110100%111.044.0+67.0
3 UMass Lowell110100%121.057.0+64.0
4 Delaware110100%105.044.0+61.0
5 Kennesaw State110100%116.057.0+59.0
6 Nicholls State110100%110.056.0+54.0
7 Siu Edwardsville110100%91.039.0+52.0
8 Eastern Kentucky110100%105.054.0+51.0
9 Morgan State110100%103.052.0+51.0
10 Stony Brook110100%97.047.0+50.0
11 Illinois (Chi.)110100%96.047.0+49.0
12 Hofstra110100%97.051.0+46.0
13 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
14 Rice110100%100.055.0+45.0
15 West Virginia110100%91.046.0+45.0
16 Xavier110100%97.052.0+45.0
17 Jacksonville Dolphins110100%105.061.0+44.0
18 Middle Tenn. St.110100%117.073.0+44.0
19 Florida International110100%101.058.0+43.0
20 South Carolina St110100%94.055.0+39.0
21 Pittsburgh110100%95.057.0+38.0
22 South Dakota Coyotes110100%95.057.0+38.0
23 IU Indy110100%113.076.0+37.0
24 Mercer110100%90.053.0+37.0
25 Michigan State110100%96.059.0+37.0
26 Butler110100%96.060.0+36.0
27 NC Wilmington110100%101.065.0+36.0
28 Delaware State110100%86.052.0+34.0
29 Duke110100%84.050.0+34.0
30 Indiana110100%91.057.0+34.0
31 Texas Tech110100%76.042.0+34.0
32 Princeton110100%78.046.0+32.0
33 VMI110100%115.083.0+32.0
34 Dayton110100%89.058.0+31.0
35 Wright State110100%102.071.0+31.0
36 Murray State110100%94.064.0+30.0
37 Maryland110100%96.067.0+29.0
38 George Mason110100%82.054.0+28.0
39 Harvard110100%73.045.0+28.0
40 Stonehill110100%84.056.0+28.0
41 Marshall110100%92.065.0+27.0
42 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
43 South Florida110100%98.071.0+27.0
44 Cincinnati110100%79.053.0+26.0
45 Richmond Spiders110100%100.077.0+23.0
46 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
47 McNeese State110100%99.078.0+21.0
48 Prairie View A&M110100%86.065.0+21.0
49 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
50 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
51 Syracuse110100%74.058.0+16.0
52 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
53 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
54 Florida Atlantic110100%74.060.0+14.0
55 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
56 William & Mary110100%80.066.0+14.0
57 Clemson110100%85.072.0+13.0
58 East Carolina110100%83.070.0+13.0
59 Elon110100%84.071.0+13.0
60 Georgia Southern110100%67.055.0+12.0
61 Old Dominion110100%61.049.0+12.0
62 Temple110100%68.056.0+12.0
63 UMass110100%71.060.0+11.0
64 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
65 VCU Rams110100%82.072.0+10.0
66 Yale110100%72.062.0+10.0
67 Miami (Ohio)110100%86.077.0+9.0
68 St. Thomas (Minn.)110100%87.078.0+9.0
69 Boston University110100%93.085.0+8.0
70 Charlotte110100%78.070.0+8.0
71 North Carolina110100%80.072.0+8.0
72 Northern Kentucky110100%84.076.0+8.0
73 Youngstown State110100%79.071.0+8.0
74 Albany Great Danes110100%74.067.0+7.0
75 Dartmouth110100%69.062.0+7.0
76 Queens Royals110100%103.098.0+5.0
77 Memphis110100%80.076.0+4.0
78 New Hampshire Wildcats110100%59.055.0+4.0
79 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
80 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
81 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
82 Cornell110100%86.085.0+1.0
83 Eastern Michigan110100%71.070.0+1.0
84 Iona110100%56.055.0+1.0
85 UCF Knights110100%96.095.0+1.0
86 Coastal Carolina1010%70.071.0-1.0
87 Florida Gulf Coast1010%95.096.0-1.0
88 Pepperdine1010%85.086.0-1.0
89 Vermont1010%55.056.0-1.0
90 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
91 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
92 Georgia State1010%73.076.0-3.0
93 Brown1010%55.059.0-4.0
94 Iowa State1010%76.080.0-4.0
95 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
96 Marist1010%62.069.0-7.0
97 Rhode Island Anchormen1010%67.074.0-7.0
98 Indiana State1010%70.078.0-8.0
99 Northeastern1010%85.093.0-8.0
100 St. Bonaventure1010%71.079.0-8.0
101 UTEP1010%76.084.0-8.0
102 Western Carolina1010%72.080.0-8.0
103 James Madison1010%77.086.0-9.0
104 Presbyterian1010%78.087.0-9.0
105 Howard1010%62.072.0-10.0
106 Miami (FL)1010%67.077.0-10.0
107 UALR1010%72.082.0-10.0
108 Troy1010%60.071.0-11.0
109 Ball State1010%55.067.0-12.0
110 Central Connecticut State1010%56.068.0-12.0
111 Western Michigan1010%49.061.0-12.0
112 Columbia1010%71.084.0-13.0
113 Stetson1010%72.085.0-13.0
114 USC Upstate1010%70.083.0-13.0
115 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
116 Bridgewater College (VA)1010%66.080.0-14.0
117 LIU Sharks1010%60.074.0-14.0
118 Liberty1010%57.072.0-15.0
119 Monmouth1010%63.078.0-15.0
120 New Haven Chargers1010%58.074.0-16.0
121 Oakland1010%68.084.0-16.0
122 Paul Quinn1010%65.086.0-21.0
123 UAB1010%78.099.0-21.0
124 UTSA Roadrunners1010%74.095.0-21.0
125 Loyola Maryland1010%58.080.0-22.0
126 UNC Asheville1010%77.0100.0-23.0
127 American University1010%53.079.0-26.0
128 Buffalo1010%65.092.0-27.0
129 Charleston Southern1010%71.098.0-27.0
130 Maine Black Bears1010%56.083.0-27.0
131 Curry1010%56.084.0-28.0
132 MIT1010%45.073.0-28.0
133 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
134 Bucknell1010%67.096.0-29.0
135 Tennessee State1010%64.094.0-30.0
136 Air Force1010%71.0102.0-31.0
137 NJIT1010%58.089.0-31.0
138 Carnegie Mellon1010%46.078.0-32.0
139 Virginia-Lynchburg1010%83.0115.0-32.0
140 Army1010%50.084.0-34.0
141 Eastern Illinois1010%57.091.0-34.0
142 Jackson State1010%42.076.0-34.0
143 St. Vincent1010%52.086.0-34.0
144 Lafayette1010%60.096.0-36.0
145 Mount Olive Trojans1010%65.0101.0-36.0
146 Miami (OH) - Middletown1010%76.0113.0-37.0
147 Quinnipiac1010%59.096.0-37.0
148 Reinhardt1010%53.090.0-37.0
149 Mount Marty1010%57.095.0-38.0
150 Rider1010%57.095.0-38.0
151 Morris College1010%55.094.0-39.0
152 New College (FL)1010%58.0101.0-43.0
153 Fisk1010%73.0117.0-44.0
154 Trinity Baptist1010%61.0105.0-44.0
155 Dallas Christian1010%55.0100.0-45.0
156 Mount St. Mary's1010%52.097.0-45.0
157 Niagara1010%46.091.0-45.0
158 Bellarmine1010%47.093.0-46.0
159 St. Joseph's (Brooklyn)1010%51.097.0-46.0
160 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
161 Old Westbury1010%47.097.0-50.0
162 Cheyney Wolves1010%52.0103.0-51.0
163 Kentucky Christian1010%54.0105.0-51.0
164 Eureka1010%39.091.0-52.0
165 North American Stallions1010%56.0110.0-54.0
166 Midway1010%57.0116.0-59.0
167 Notre Dame MD1010%44.0105.0-61.0
168 Rivier1010%57.0121.0-64.0
169 Coast Guard1010%44.0111.0-67.0
170 Southeastern Baptist College1010%42.0127.0-85.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 170 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Charleston052059111
Southern W.02602955
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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