Colorado faces Abilene Christian in the NCAA on 2 November 2026, with the model designating Colorado as the favourite and predicting a decisive outing. Colorado has won 74% of its games this season, while Abilene Christian has a 26% win rate, and the projected score is 78-71, giving a projected total of 149.4 points. The spread of -19.0 points favours Colorado, but the model estimates only a 15% chance that Colorado will cover, and the over/under line of 154.0 points carries a 38% probability of an over. Colorado's last five games include two wins and three losses, with recent defeats to Oklahoma State 83-92 and Arizona 79-89 at home, and a win over Utah Utes 92-78 away. Abilene Christian's recent five games show one win and four losses, including a loss to Utah Tech 74-80 away, a win over Tarleton 84-78 at home, and a loss to UT Arlington 57-64 at home. The overtime probability is 4%. Colorado's strong season record and higher projected points suggest a comfortable win, but the slim cover probability indicates the margin may be narrower than the spread implies.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Colorado winWon
74.2%fair 1.35
Best odds1.03
Implied92.7%
Edge-18.5pp
Abilene Christian winLost
25.8%fair 3.87
Best odds17.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+18.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Colorado total 85 · main lineActual: Colorado over 85
Over 85
24.7%
@ 1.85-25.3pp
Under 85
75.3%
@ 1.85+25.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Colorado total 89Actual: Colorado over 89
Over 89
13.7%
Under 89
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abilene Christian total 63Actual: Abilene Christian under 63
Over 63
78.9%
Under 63
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Abilene Christian total 67 · main lineActual: Abilene Christian under 67
Over 67
65.3%
@ 1.85+15.1pp
Under 67
34.7%
@ 1.87-15.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Abilene Christian total 71Actual: Abilene Christian under 71
Over 71
49.5%
Under 71
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Colorado -22Actual: Colorado -22
COLO -22
9.6%
@ 2.40-29.1pp
ABIL +22
90.4%
@ 1.52+29.1pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Bet365
2.40
ABIL
Bet365
1.52
Spread Colorado -19 · main lineActual: Colorado -19
COLO -19
14.6%
@ 1.95-34.5pp
ABIL +19
85.4%
@ 1.88+34.5pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
ABIL
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Spread Colorado -16Actual: Colorado -16
COLO -16
21.4%
@ 1.59-38.9pp
ABIL +16
78.6%
@ 2.41+38.9pp
Best 5 market prices
COLO
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
ABIL
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ColoradoAbilene Christian
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Abilene Christian +17
81.1%
2.20
Pinnacle
2.30
Bet365
2.10
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +16.5
79.2%
2.24
Pinnacle
2.40
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
-
-
+39.3pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +16
78.6%
2.33
Pinnacle
2.41
Bet365
2.25
-
-
-
+38.9pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +14
73.1%
2.70
Bet365
2.70
-
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +15
75.9%
2.50
Bet365
2.50
-
-
-
-
+38.4pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +17.5
81.5%
2.07
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
-
+37.8pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +14.5
73.8%
2.55
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
+37.5pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +13.5
70.9%
2.76
Betano
2.77
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
+37.4pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +18
83.3%
2.00
Pinnacle
2.09
Marathon Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
-
-
+37.3pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +15.5
76.6%
2.35
Betano
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+37.2pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +18.5
83.7%
1.90
Pinnacle
1.99
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.89
+35.3pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +19
85.4%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+34.5pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +19.5
85.7%
1.79
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
Marathon Bet
1.77
Bet365
1.74
-
+32.6pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +20
87.2%
1.71
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.68
-
-
-
+32.1pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +21
88.9%
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
-
+31.0pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +20.5
87.5%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.64
-
-
+30.4pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +21.5
89.1%
1.56
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
Colorado under 85.5
76.1%
1.91
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
+29.3pp
Lost
Colorado under 86.5
79.1%
1.88
BetVictor
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
Marathon Bet
1.85
+29.2pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +22
90.4%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+29.1pp
Lost
Colorado under 84.5
72.9%
2.16
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.14
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Lost
Colorado under 87.5
81.8%
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
-
+28.8pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +22.5
90.5%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+28.5pp
Lost
Colorado under 86
78.5%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.84
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +23
91.7%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +23.5
91.8%
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+26.5pp
Lost
Colorado under 85
75.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +24
92.8%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+25.3pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +24.5
92.9%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+24.6pp
Lost
Colorado under 89.5
86.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Colorado under 88.5
84.3%
1.54
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+23.1pp
Lost
Abilene Christian +25
93.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Lost
Colorado under 90.5
88.6%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Colorado under 91.5
90.4%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+20.9pp
Lost
Abilene Christian over 65.5
70.1%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Lost
Abilene Christian over 61.5
82.2%
1.30
Betano
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Abilene Christian over 63.5
76.6%
1.41
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Lost
Abilene Christian over 64.5
73.5%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
+11.0pp
Lost
Under 158.5
71.5%
1.50
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
Under 158
70.8%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Abilene Christian over 62.5
79.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Under 159.5
73.4%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
75.4%
1.40
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Abilene Christian over 60.5
84.7%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Lost
Under 159
72.9%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Under 160
74.9%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
77.2%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
Under 161
76.8%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Won
Abilene Christian over 57.5
90.6%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Abilene Christian over 58.5
88.9%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Abilene Christian over 56.5
92.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Under 168.5
87.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
79.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Under 173.5
92.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 172.5
91.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 167.5
86.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Over 127.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 84.5
90.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Won
Over 128.5
89.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 82.5
86.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Over 132.5
84.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Colorado over 66.5
88.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Over 133.5
83.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
Colorado over 67.5
85.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.9pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 80.5
82.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Colorado over 68.5
83.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.9pp
Won
Over 137.5
76.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.8pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 78.5
76.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-9.8pp
Won
Colorado over 69.5
81.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 76.5
70.6%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Over 138.5
74.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
Colorado over 70.5
78.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Abilene Christian under 77.5
73.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Colorado over 71.5
75.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.2pp
Won
Colorado over 72.5
72.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-16.0pp
Won
Colorado (regulation)
71.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.02
-
-
-
-16.2pp
Won
Colorado win
74.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Marathon Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betfair
1.02
-18.5pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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