Desna Bryansk will host Dynamo Grozny in the Super League on 5 November 2026, with the model favouring the visitors at 86% to win over the home side's 14% chance. Desna's season has been difficult, recording 1-5 with 68.8 points scored and 79.2 allowed per game, and they have gone 1-3 at home, averaging 70.5 points and conceding 73.5; their last five games included a 54-81 loss to CSKA Moscow, a 62-88 defeat to Temp Sumz Revda, and a 69-93 loss to Ufa. Dynamo, meanwhile, has posted a strong 6-1 record, averaging 84.1 points and 72.7 allowed, and they are undefeated on the road at 3-0, scoring 86.3 and allowing 73.7; their recent five games feature a 94-76 win over Rusichi Kursk, a 67-69 loss to University-Ugra, and a 93-80 victory over Khimki M. The teams have met once before, with Dynamo winning that encounter. Pythia projects a 70-82 score, a total of 151.8, and a 12.5 point spread in favour of the visitors, with a 50% chance that Dynamo will cover; the 150.5 total line has a 53% probability of going over, and the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The next contest will see Dynamo Grozny extend their winning run against a struggling Desna Bryansk.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Desna Bryansk winLost
13.7%fair 7.30
Best odds6.36
Implied14.4%
Edge-0.7pp
Dynamo Grozny winWon
86.3%fair 1.16
Best odds1.11
Implied85.6%
Edge+0.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Desna BryanskLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#9
W
25-16
25
16
+9
A19/09
Russian Cup
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#31
L
14-18
14
18
-4
A17/09
Russian Cup
Rusichi Kursk
#10
W
29-26
29
26
+3
H18/09
Russian Cup
BC Moscow
#5
L
17-22
17
22
-5
H19/09
Russian Cup
University-Ugra
#9
L
15-18
15
18
-3
H02/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
L
13-20
13
20
-7
H05/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
28-9
28
9
+19
H15/10
Super League
Ufa
#2
L
20-24
20
24
-4
A21/10
Super League
Temp Sumz Revda
#3
W
27-24
27
24
+3
A24/10
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
L
11-22
11
22
-11
H02/11
Super League
39.8Avg total
19.9Scored
19.9Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 38
Last 30 (12)
18.8
19.9
38.7
-1.2
33%
50%
Last 30 at home (7)
17.9
18.6
36.4
-0.7
29%
29%
Last 30 away (5)
20.0
21.8
41.8
-1.8
40%
80%
Last 10 (10)
19.9
19.9
39.8
+0.0
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
19.8
19.8
39.6
+0.0
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)
19.5
22.6
42.1
-3.1
38%
75%
vs Similar (2)
14.5
18.0
32.5
-3.5
0%
0%
vs Weaker (2)
20.0
11.0
31.0
+9.0
50%
0%
This opponent (Dynamo Grozny) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo GroznyLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Novosibirsk
#10
W
27-11
27
11
+16
H21/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
L
12-15
12
15
-3
A23/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
D
15-15
15
15
+0
H25/05
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
L
18-22
18
22
-4
H01/10
Super League
Tambov
#10
W
24-19
24
19
+5
H04/10
Super League
Novosibirsk
#8
L
12-17
12
17
-5
A12/10
Super League
Barnaul
#7
W
24-17
24
17
+7
A15/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
W
27-23
27
23
+4
H22/10
Super League
University-Ugra
#9
L
10-18
10
18
-8
H25/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
21-19
21
19
+2
A02/11
Super League
36.6Avg total
19.0Scored
17.6Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 38
Last 30 (30)
20.3
17.2
37.5
+3.1
70%
50%
Last 30 at home (14)
20.9
17.9
38.8
+2.9
64%
57%
Last 30 away (16)
19.9
16.6
36.4
+3.3
75%
44%
Last 10 (10)
19.0
17.6
36.6
+1.4
50%
50%
Last 5 (5)
18.8
18.8
37.6
+0.0
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
27.0
22.0
49.0
+5.0
100%
100%
vs Similar (13)
20.4
18.2
38.6
+2.2
77%
54%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)
19.9
16.1
35.9
+3.8
62%
44%
This opponent (Desna Bryansk) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
Desna Bryansk 4th quarter total 17 · main lineActual: Desna Bryansk over 17
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Dynamo Grozny 4th quarter total 20 · main lineActual: Dynamo Grozny over 20
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Desna BryanskLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#9
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A19/09
Russian Cup
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#31
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A17/09
Russian Cup
Rusichi Kursk
#10
L
38-49
38
49
-11
H18/09
Russian Cup
BC Moscow
#5
L
22-47
22
47
-25
H19/09
Russian Cup
University-Ugra
#9
L
36-44
36
44
-8
H02/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H05/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
41-31
41
31
+10
H15/10
Super League
Ufa
#2
L
30-40
30
40
-10
A21/10
Super League
Temp Sumz Revda
#3
L
18-45
18
45
-27
A24/10
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H02/11
Super League
71.1Avg total
30.5Scored
40.6Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (12)
31.2
40.4
71.6
-9.2
25%
33%
Last 30 at home (7)
33.7
39.9
73.6
-6.1
29%
43%
Last 30 away (5)
27.6
41.2
68.8
-13.6
20%
20%
Last 10 (10)
30.5
40.6
71.1
-10.1
20%
30%
Last 5 (5)
29.0
37.6
66.6
-8.6
20%
0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)
26.9
42.0
68.9
-15.1
0%
12%
vs Similar (2)
37.5
41.0
78.5
-3.5
50%
100%
vs Weaker (2)
42.0
33.5
75.5
+8.5
100%
50%
This opponent (Dynamo Grozny) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo GroznyLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Novosibirsk
#10
W
42-28
42
28
+14
H21/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
D
36-36
36
36
+0
A23/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
L
21-26
21
26
-5
H25/05
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
W
43-36
43
36
+7
H01/10
Super League
Tambov
#10
W
40-32
40
32
+8
H04/10
Super League
Novosibirsk
#8
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A12/10
Super League
Barnaul
#7
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A15/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H22/10
Super League
University-Ugra
#9
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H25/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A02/11
Super League
74.3Avg total
40.0Scored
34.3Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 74.5
Last 30 (30)
38.9
37.2
76.1
+1.7
53%
53%
Last 30 at home (14)
40.1
35.1
75.2
+4.9
71%
50%
Last 30 away (16)
37.9
39.0
76.9
-1.1
38%
56%
Last 10 (10)
40.0
34.3
74.3
+5.7
80%
50%
Last 5 (5)
43.6
37.0
80.6
+6.6
100%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)
43.0
43.0
86.0
+0.0
0%
100%
vs Similar (13)
40.1
41.5
81.6
-1.5
38%
77%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)
37.8
33.3
71.1
+4.4
69%
31%
This opponent (Desna Bryansk) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half Spread Desna Bryansk +5 · main lineActual: Dynamo Grozny -5
DESN +5
no forecast
@ 1.83
DYNA -5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 74.5 · main lineActual: Over 74.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Desna Bryansk 2nd half total 34.5 · main lineActual: Desna Bryansk over 34.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
Dynamo Grozny 2nd half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Dynamo Grozny over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.86
2nd half Spread Desna Bryansk +6Actual: Dynamo Grozny -6
DESN +6
no forecast
@ 1.84
DYNA -6
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread Desna Bryansk +7Actual: Dynamo Grozny -7
DESN +7
no forecast
@ 1.79
DYNA -7
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Spread Desna Bryansk +8Actual: Dynamo Grozny -8
DESN +8
no forecast
@ 1.75
DYNA -8
no forecast
@ 1.92
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Dynamo Grozny (regulation)
DESN
no forecast
@ 3.02
Draw
no forecast
@ 17.50
DYNA
no forecast
@ 1.40
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Dynamo Grozny (regulation)
84.5%
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Dynamo Grozny win
86.3%
1.10
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.07
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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