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Desna Bryansk vs Dynamo Grozny Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 05 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 70-82
Projected total 151.8
Final 73-80
20-14 16-18 16-26 21-22
Position#13
Record1-5
FormLWLLL
Points / game68.8
Allowed / game79.2
Vs
14%
86%
■ DESN 14%■ DYNA 86%
Pythia win probability
Position#1
Record6-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game84.1
Allowed / game72.7
RussiaSuper League
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Desna Bryansk will host Dynamo Grozny in the Super League on 5 November 2026, with the model favouring the visitors at 86% to win over the home side's 14% chance. Desna's season has been difficult, recording 1-5 with 68.8 points scored and 79.2 allowed per game, and they have gone 1-3 at home, averaging 70.5 points and conceding 73.5; their last five games included a 54-81 loss to CSKA Moscow, a 62-88 defeat to Temp Sumz Revda, and a 69-93 loss to Ufa. Dynamo, meanwhile, has posted a strong 6-1 record, averaging 84.1 points and 72.7 allowed, and they are undefeated on the road at 3-0, scoring 86.3 and allowing 73.7; their recent five games feature a 94-76 win over Rusichi Kursk, a 67-69 loss to University-Ugra, and a 93-80 victory over Khimki M. The teams have met once before, with Dynamo winning that encounter. Pythia projects a 70-82 score, a total of 151.8, and a 12.5 point spread in favour of the visitors, with a 50% chance that Dynamo will cover; the 150.5 total line has a 53% probability of going over, and the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The next contest will see Dynamo Grozny extend their winning run against a struggling Desna Bryansk.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Desna Bryansk winLost
13.7%fair 7.30
Best odds6.36
Implied14.4%
Edge-0.7pp
Dynamo Grozny winWon
86.3%fair 1.16
Best odds1.11
Implied85.6%
Edge+0.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Desna BryanskRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#9
L
69-85
69
85
-16
A19/09
Russian Cup
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#31
W
71-65
71
65
+6
A17/09
Russian Cup
Rusichi Kursk
#10
L
85-98
85
98
-13
H18/09
Russian Cup
BC Moscow
#5
L
56-95
56
95
-39
H19/09
Russian Cup
University-Ugra
#9
L
76-78
76
78
-2
H02/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
L
63-73
63
73
-10
H05/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
89-62
89
62
+27
H15/10
Super League
Ufa
#2
L
69-93
69
93
-24
A21/10
Super League
Temp Sumz Revda
#3
L
62-88
62
88
-26
A24/10
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
L
54-81
54
81
-27
H02/11
Super League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-16
19-29
16-19
9-21
14-18
18-9
16-16
23-22
29-26
18-23
18-22
20-27
17-22
17-26
9-22
13-25
15-18
25-16
18-22
18-22
13-20
23-21
13-18
14-14
28-9
20-22
14-15
27-16
20-24
19-29
15-24
15-16
27-24
17-19
4-22
14-23
11-22
14-19
14-21
15-19
151.2Avg total
69.4Scored
81.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)68.879.2148.0-10.317%
Season at home (4)70.573.5144.0-3.025%
Season away (2)65.590.5156.0-25.00%
Last 10 (10)69.481.8151.2-12.420%
Last 5 (5)67.479.4146.8-12.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)64.487.5151.9-23.10%
vs Similar (2)73.571.5145.0+2.050%
vs Weaker (2)82.060.5142.5+21.5100%
This opponent (Dynamo Grozny) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo GroznyRussiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Novosibirsk
#10
W
83-57
83
57
+26
H21/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
W
66-62
66
62
+4
A23/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H25/05
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
W
87-75
87
75
+12
H01/10
Super League
Tambov
#10
W
83-64
83
64
+19
H04/10
Super League
Novosibirsk
#8
W
83-75
83
75
+8
A12/10
Super League
Barnaul
#7
W
82-70
82
70
+12
A15/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
W
93-80
93
80
+13
H22/10
Super League
University-Ugra
#9
L
67-69
67
69
-2
H25/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
94-76
94
76
+18
A02/11
Super League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-11
14-18
15-16
27-12
12-15
18-11
21-17
15-19
15-15
24-16
14-12
7-14
18-22
26-17
17-13
26-23
24-19
19-13
20-22
20-10
12-17
27-16
26-17
18-25
24-17
14-17
31-21
13-15
27-23
17-18
20-15
29-24
10-18
23-24
14-11
20-16
21-19
26-16
19-23
28-18
148.3Avg total
79.8Scored
68.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)84.172.7156.9+11.486%
Season at home (4)82.572.0154.5+10.575%
Season away (3)86.373.7160.0+12.7100%
Last 10 (10)79.868.5148.3+11.390%
Last 5 (5)83.874.0157.8+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)80.084.0164.0-4.00%
vs Similar (13)78.077.9155.9+0.154%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)76.666.5143.1+10.181%
This opponent (Desna Bryansk) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 145.5Actual: Over 145.5
Over 145.5
64.8%
Under 145.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 150.5 · main lineActual: Over 150.5
Over 150.5
52.8%
@ 1.86+2.5pp
Under 150.5
47.2%
@ 1.89-2.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.83
Marathon Be
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Under
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.85
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
40.7%
@ 2.13-2.4pp
Under 155.5
59.3%
@ 1.62+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathon Be
2.06
1xBet
2.06
Under
Marathon Be
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61

📊 3. Team Totals

Desna Bryansk total 65.5Actual: Desna Bryansk over 65.5
Over 65.5
65.5%
Under 65.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Desna Bryansk total 69 · main lineActual: Desna Bryansk over 69
Over 69
52.1%
@ 1.82+1.8pp
Under 69
47.9%
@ 1.84-1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Desna Bryansk total 73Push
Over 73
36.1%
Under 73
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Grozny total 78Actual: Dynamo Grozny over 78
Over 78
66.9%
Under 78
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dynamo Grozny total 82 · main lineActual: Dynamo Grozny under 82
Over 82
50.7%
@ 1.83+0.7pp
Under 82
49.3%
@ 1.83-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Dynamo Grozny total 86Actual: Dynamo Grozny under 86
Over 86
34.3%
Under 86
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Desna Bryansk +9.5Actual: Desna Bryansk +9.5
DESN +9.5
39.5%
@ 2.36+0.3pp
DYNA -9.5
60.5%
@ 1.52-0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DESN
Pinnacle
2.36
DYNA
Marathon Be
1.52
Pinnacle
1.52
Spread Desna Bryansk +12.5 · main lineActual: Desna Bryansk +12.5
DESN +12.5
50.2%
@ 1.86-0.2pp
DYNA -12.5
49.8%
@ 1.88+0.2pp
Best 5 market prices
DESN
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.83
DYNA
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Spread Desna Bryansk +15.5Actual: Desna Bryansk +15.5
DESN +15.5
60.8%
@ 1.72+3.3pp
DYNA -15.5
39.2%
@ 2.14-3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DESN
1xBet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathon Be
1.56
DYNA
Pinnacle
2.14
Marathon Be
1.92
1xBet
1.92

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: -6.4-6.4Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +2.7+2.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: -6.4-6.4Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: -3.7-3.7Q4: +2.7+2.7
Desna BryanskDynamo Grozny
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Desna BryanskLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#9
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A19/09
Russian Cup
Khimki-Podmoskovie
#31
W
32-27
32
27
+5
A17/09
Russian Cup
Rusichi Kursk
#10
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H18/09
Russian Cup
BC Moscow
#5
L
34-48
34
48
-14
H19/09
Russian Cup
University-Ugra
#9
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H02/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H05/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
48-31
48
31
+17
H15/10
Super League
Ufa
#2
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A21/10
Super League
Temp Sumz Revda
#3
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A24/10
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
L
25-41
25
41
-16
H02/11
Super League
80.1Avg total
38.9Scored
41.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (12)37.739.977.6-2.242%58%
Last 30 at home (7)37.438.175.6-0.743%57%
Last 30 away (5)38.042.480.4-4.440%60%
Last 10 (10)38.941.280.1-2.340%70%
Last 5 (5)38.441.880.2-3.440%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)37.545.583.0-8.012%75%
vs Similar (2)36.030.566.5+5.5100%0%
vs Weaker (2)40.027.067.0+13.0100%50%
This opponent (Dynamo Grozny) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dynamo GroznyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Novosibirsk
#10
W
41-29
41
29
+12
H21/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
W
30-26
30
26
+4
A23/05
Super League
Novosibirsk
#10
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H25/05
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H01/10
Super League
Tambov
#10
W
43-32
43
32
+11
H04/10
Super League
Novosibirsk
#8
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A12/10
Super League
Barnaul
#7
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A15/10
Super League
Khimki M.
#6
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H22/10
Super League
University-Ugra
#9
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H25/10
Super League
Rusichi Kursk
#14
W
47-35
47
35
+12
A02/11
Super League
74.0Avg total
39.8Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76
Last 30 (30)38.434.873.2+3.563%37%
Last 30 at home (14)39.134.673.7+4.664%36%
Last 30 away (16)37.735.172.8+2.662%38%
Last 10 (10)39.834.274.0+5.690%30%
Last 5 (5)40.237.077.2+3.280%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)37.041.078.0-4.00%100%
vs Similar (13)37.936.474.3+1.554%54%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)38.833.272.0+5.675%19%
This opponent (Desna Bryansk) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Desna Bryansk +7.5 · main lineActual: Desna Bryansk +7.5
DESN +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
DYNA -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 76 · main lineActual: Under 76
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Desna Bryansk 1st half total 34 · main lineActual: Desna Bryansk over 34
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Dynamo Grozny (regulation)
DESN
no forecast
@ 4.42
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.25
DYNA
no forecast
@ 1.22

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Double chance (regulation)
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Dynamo Grozny (regulation)84.5%1.11
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
---+4.6ppWon
Dynamo Grozny win86.3%1.10
Marathon Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Pinnacle
1.07
--+0.7ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Desna Bryansk wins
0
Dynamo Grozny wins
No previous meetings.
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26HCSKA Moscow 254-81
24/10/26ATemp Sumz Revda62-88
21/10/26AUfa69-93
15/10/26HRusichi Kursk89-62
05/10/26HKhimki M.63-73
02/10/26HUniversity-Ugra76-78
19/09/25HBC Moscow56-95
18/09/25HRusichi Kursk85-98
17/09/25AKhimki-Podmoskovie71-65
19/09/24AKhimki-Podmoskovie69-85
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/11/26ARusichi Kursk94-76
25/10/26HUniversity-Ugra67-69
22/10/26HKhimki M.93-80
15/10/26ABarnaul82-70
12/10/26ANovosibirsk83-75
04/10/26HTambov83-64
01/10/26HIzhevsk87-75
25/05/26HNovosibirsk60-57
23/05/26ANovosibirsk66-62
21/05/26HNovosibirsk83-57

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Desna Bryansk
Super League 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL17%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %17%25%0%
Points / game68.870.565.5
Allowed / game79.273.590.5
Point differential-10.3-3.0-25.0
Avg total148.0144.0156.0
Over 150.550%50%50%
Win by 10+17%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Dynamo Grozny
Super League 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW86%
HomeWWWL75%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %86%75%100%
Points / game84.182.586.3
Allowed / game72.772.073.7
Point differential+11.4+10.5+12.7
Avg total156.9154.5160.0
Over 150.571%50%100%
Win by 10+71%75%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Ufa76186%89.171.4+17.7
2 Temp Sumz Revda76186%91.177.9+13.3
3 Dynamo Grozny76186%84.172.7+11.4
4 Chelyabinsk76186%92.089.4+2.6
5 CSKA Moscow 275271%73.166.7+6.4
6 Khimki M.74357%83.777.3+6.4
7 Barnaul83538%80.082.6-2.6
8 Novosibirsk83538%82.089.0-7.0
9 University-Ugra83538%73.481.9-8.5
10 Metallurg62433%76.281.2-5.0
11 Tambov72529%73.776.1-2.4
12 Desna Bryansk61517%68.879.2-10.3
13 Rusichi Kursk61517%71.386.7-15.3
14 Izhevsk71614%78.787.1-8.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Desna Bryansk2016162173
Dynamo Grozny1418262280
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