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Drake vs Southern Univ. Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Projected 88-65
Projected total 153.5
Final 75-68
33-27 42-41
Position#27
Record1-0
FormLWWLW
Points / game101.0
Allowed / game48.0
Drake 🏆
USA
Vs
97%
■ DRAK 97%■ SOUT 3%
Pythia win probability
Southern Univ.
USA
Position#399
Record0-2
FormWWLLL
Points / game63.0
Allowed / game95.5
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

On 8 November 2026 the NCAA matchup pits Drake against Southern Univ., with Drake the clear favourite as the Pythia model assigns a 97% chance of victory, reflecting Drake's 1-0 record, 101.0 points per game and only 48.0 points allowed, placing them 5th in the league, while Southern Univ. sits 391st with a 0-2 record, 63.0 points per game and 95.5 allowed; Drake's sole home game saw a 101-48 win over Central College, and their last five games include three wins and two losses, whereas Southern Univ.'s last five feature two wins and three losses, with recent defeats to TCU, SMU Mustangs and Prairie View A&M; the projected score is 88-65, giving a total of 153.5 points, and the home line is -13.5 with a 79% probability of covering, while the over/under line of 151.0 has a 56% chance of exceeding; the model also estimates a 1% chance of overtime, underscoring Drake's dominant statistical advantage.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Drake winWon
97.1%fair 1.03
Best odds1.10
Implied88.1%
Edge+9.0pp
Southern Univ. winLost
2.9%fair 34.13
Best odds8.50
Implied11.9%
Edge-9.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 14:18 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

DrakeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
L
76-81
76
81
-5
H10/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
70-80
70
80
-10
H13/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
62-86
62
86
-24
A15/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
61-66
61
66
-5
H19/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
L
71-74
71
74
-3
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
53-75
53
75
-22
H01/03
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
67-63
67
63
+4
A05/03
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
100-79
100
79
+21
A06/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
51-72
51
72
-21
A07/03
NCAA
Central College
#480
W
101-48
101
48
+53
H05/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-38
36-43
38-40
32-40
29-38
33-48
36-31
25-35
37-36
34-38
24-39
29-36
27-31
40-32
48-41
52-38
27-34
24-38
50-22
51-26
143.6Avg total
71.2Scored
72.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)101.048.0149.0+53.0100%
Season at home (1)101.048.0149.0+53.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.272.4143.6-1.230%
Last 5 (5)74.467.4141.8+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)72.081.6153.6-9.68%
vs Similar (13)73.875.9149.7-2.246%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)85.366.7152.0+18.7100%
This opponent (Southern Univ.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern Univ.USALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grambling St.
#260
W
87-73
87
73
+14
H21/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
71-82
71
82
-11
H27/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
79-82
79
82
-3
H28/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
71-64
71
64
+7
A04/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A06/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
84-81
84
81
+3
H13/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
73-70
73
70
+3
A14/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
66-72
66
72
-6
H14/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#48
L
72-85
72
85
-13
A03/11
NCAA
TCU
#17
L
54-106
54
106
-52
A07/11
NCAA
1H
2H
48-24
39-49
33-32
38-50
39-49
40-33
28-34
43-30
43-30
45-55
39-37
45-44
43-37
30-33
28-41
38-31
38-40
34-45
28-49
26-57
154.5Avg total
74.5Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)63.095.5158.5-32.50%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)63.095.5158.5-32.50%
Last 10 (10)74.580.0154.5-5.550%
Last 5 (5)69.882.8152.6-13.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)62.594.0156.5-31.50%
vs Similar (12)78.279.1157.2-0.950%
vs Weaker (13)75.574.2149.8+1.362%
This opponent (Drake) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 146Actual: Under 146
Over 146
68.3%
Under 146
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 151 · main lineActual: Under 151
Over 151
56.2%
@ 1.92+6.5pp
Under 151
43.8%
@ 1.90-6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.92
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.82
Over/Under 156Actual: Under 156
Over 156
43.5%
Under 156
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Drake total 78Actual: Drake under 78
Over 78
85.3%
Under 78
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drake total 82 · main lineActual: Drake under 82
Over 82
73.7%
@ 1.85+23.7pp
Under 82
26.3%
@ 1.85-23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Drake total 86Actual: Drake under 86
Over 86
58.5%
Under 86
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 65Actual: Southern Univ. over 65
Over 65
51.6%
Under 65
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southern Univ. total 69 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. under 69
Over 69
35.3%
@ 1.85-14.7pp
Under 69
64.7%
@ 1.85+14.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Southern Univ. total 73Actual: Southern Univ. under 73
Over 73
21.5%
Under 73
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Drake -16.5Actual: Southern Univ. +16.5
DRAK -16.5
70.5%
@ 2.32+30.8pp
SOUT +16.5
29.5%
@ 1.67-30.8pp
Best 5 market prices
DRAK
Betano
2.32
SOUT
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.53
Spread Drake -13.5 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. +13.5
DRAK -13.5
78.8%
@ 1.95+28.4pp
SOUT +13.5
21.2%
@ 1.94-28.4pp
Best 5 market prices
DRAK
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.87
SOUT
Pinnacle
1.94
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.83
Spread Drake -10.5Actual: Southern Univ. +10.5
DRAK -10.5
85.5%
@ 1.62+26.7pp
SOUT +10.5
14.5%
@ 2.31-26.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DRAK
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.55
SOUT
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: -1.8-1.82nd half: -4.9-4.9
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +0.6+0.61st half: -0.6-0.62nd half2nd half: -1.8-1.82nd half: -4.9-4.9
DrakeSouthern Univ.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
DrakeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Valparaiso
#170
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/02
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H13/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A15/02
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H19/02
NCAA
Valparaiso
#170
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A26/02
NCAA
Northern Iowa
#88
L
24-39
24
39
-15
H01/03
NCAA
Southern Illinois
#203
L
27-31
27
31
-4
A05/03
NCAA
Belmont
#25
W
48-41
48
41
+7
A06/03
NCAA
Illinois (Chi.)
#155
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A07/03
NCAA
Central College
#480
W
50-22
50
22
+28
H05/11
NCAA
70.6Avg total
35.6Scored
35.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)34.436.070.4-1.640%43%
Last 30 at home (16)37.135.272.3+1.844%50%
Last 30 away (14)31.336.968.1-5.636%36%
Last 10 (10)35.635.070.6+0.650%50%
Last 5 (5)35.233.468.6+1.840%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)33.939.072.9-5.117%42%
vs Similar (13)32.336.368.6-4.046%46%
vs Weaker ◀ (3)37.730.368.0+7.367%33%
This opponent (Southern Univ.) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Southern Univ.Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Grambling St.
#260
W
48-24
48
24
+24
H21/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H27/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
39-49
39
49
-10
H28/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
L
28-34
28
34
-6
A04/03
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
W
43-30
43
30
+13
A06/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H13/03
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A14/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
28-41
28
41
-13
H14/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#48
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A03/11
NCAA
TCU
#17
L
28-49
28
49
-21
A07/11
NCAA
74.0Avg total
36.7Scored
37.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)36.835.572.3+1.343%57%
Last 30 at home (12)39.133.872.8+5.358%58%
Last 30 away (18)35.336.771.9-1.433%56%
Last 10 (10)36.737.374.0-0.650%70%
Last 5 (5)35.240.876.0-5.640%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)29.545.274.8-15.80%75%
vs Similar (12)36.836.773.4+0.133%58%
vs Weaker (13)37.433.070.4+4.462%46%
This opponent (Drake) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Drake win
DRAK win
no forecast
@ 1.19
SOUT win
no forecast
@ 4.75
1st half Spread Drake -6.5 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. +6.5
DRAK -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
SOUT +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
Drake 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: Drake under 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Southern Univ. 1st half total 32.5 · main lineActual: Southern Univ. under 32.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Drake -7.5Actual: Southern Univ. +7.5
DRAK -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
SOUT +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Drake -5.5Actual: Drake -5.5
DRAK -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
SOUT +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.55
Under
no forecast
@ 2.27
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Under 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.10
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Drake -8.5Actual: Southern Univ. +8.5
DRAK -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.02
SOUT +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
1st half Spread Drake -4.5Actual: Drake -4.5
DRAK -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
SOUT +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
1st half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Under 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread Drake -9.5Actual: Southern Univ. +9.5
DRAK -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
SOUT +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Drake -3.5Actual: Drake -3.5
DRAK -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
SOUT +3.5
no forecast
@ 2.77
1st half Over/Under 65.5Actual: Under 65.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.29
Under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Drake (regulation)
DRAK
no forecast
@ 1.24
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
SOUT
no forecast
@ 4.70

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
DRAK win + total 150.5
🔒 Pro
SOUT win + total 150.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: DRAK leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Drake -1575.5%2.07
Pinnacle
2.19
1xBet
2.02
Marathon Bet
2.01		--+31.8ppLost
Drake -15.573.4%2.08
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.15
Marathon Bet
1.93
1xBet
1.93		-+31.6ppLost
Drake -16.570.5%2.32
Betano
2.32		----+30.8ppLost
Drake -14.576.2%2.01
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95		-+30.6ppLost
Drake -1478.3%1.95
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.96
SBO
1.96
1xBet
1.87		-+30.3ppLost
Drake -13.578.8%1.88
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.90
Betano
1.90
SBO
1.87		+28.4ppLost
Drake -1185.2%1.68
Pinnacle
1.68		----+28.4ppLost
Drake -1380.8%1.81
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
SBO
1.78		--+27.8ppLost
Drake -10.585.5%1.58
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.55		---+26.7ppLost
Drake -1672.6%2.00
Marathon Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00		---+26.3ppLost
Drake -12.581.2%1.77
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.74		+26.1ppLost
Drake -1283.1%1.73
Marathon Bet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.68		---+25.9ppLost
Drake over 79.580.7%1.54
Pinnacle
1.69
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.44		--+25.1ppLost
Drake -9.587.3%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+24.6ppLost
Drake -11.583.4%1.66
Marathon Bet
1.71
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62		--+24.4ppLost
Drake over 8273.7%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		---+23.7ppLost
Drake -8.589.0%1.40
Betano
1.40		----+23.1ppLost
Drake over 80.577.8%1.66
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.60		---+23.0ppLost
Drake over 81.574.6%1.81
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.75		-+22.7ppLost
Drake over 82.571.3%1.87
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.88
1xBet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85		+22.2ppLost
Drake -7.590.5%1.34
Betano
1.34		----+21.7ppLost
Drake -5.593.1%1.27
Betano
1.27		----+20.0ppWon
Drake -6.591.9%1.28
Betano
1.28		----+19.8ppWon
Drake over 78.583.3%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+19.5ppLost
Drake over 77.585.7%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+18.5ppLost
Drake over 76.587.8%1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.25		---+16.1ppLost
Southern Univ. under 75.584.4%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+12.8ppWon
Drake (regulation)96.5%1.08
Betano
1.11
Marathon Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06		--+11.9ppWon
Southern Univ. under 72.576.2%1.42
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.40		---+11.6ppWon
Southern Univ. under 73.579.2%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+11.2ppWon
Southern Univ. under 71.573.0%1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47		---+11.0ppWon
Southern Univ. under 74.581.9%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+10.3ppWon
Drake win97.1%1.08
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Marathon Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07		+9.0ppWon
Southern Univ. under 78.590.4%1.14
1xBet
1.14		----+8.9ppWon
Southern Univ. under 77.588.6%1.14
1xBet
1.14		----+7.2ppWon
Overtime: no99.2%1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01		---+6.2pp-
Over 144.571.1%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+6.0ppLost
Over 143.573.2%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+5.9ppLost
Southern Univ. over 59.572.4%1.14
1xBet
1.14		-----9.1ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Drake wins
0
Southern Univ. wins
No previous meetings.
Drakelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/26HCentral College101-48
07/03/26AIllinois (Chi.)51-72
06/03/26ABelmont100-79
05/03/26ASouthern Illinois67-63
01/03/26HNorthern Iowa53-75
26/02/26AValparaiso71-74
19/02/26HSouthern Illinois61-66
15/02/26ANorthern Iowa62-86
13/02/26HIllinois (Chi.)70-80
10/02/26HValparaiso76-81
Southern Univ.last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ATCU54-106
03/11/26ASMU Mustangs72-85
14/03/26HPrairie View A&M66-72
14/03/26AFlorida A&M73-70
13/03/26HArkansas-Pine Bluff84-81
06/03/26AAlabama A&M Bulldogs88-85
04/03/26AAlabama State71-64
28/02/26HBethune-Cookman79-82
27/02/26HFlorida A&M71-82
21/02/26HGrambling St.87-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Drake
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
HomeW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games11-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game101.0101.0-
Allowed / game48.048.0-
Point differential+53.0+53.0-
Avg total149.0149.0-
Over 1510%0%-
Win by 10+100%100%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
Southern Univ.
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLL0%
Home--
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %0%-0%
Points / game63.0-63.0
Allowed / game95.5-95.5
Point differential-32.5--32.5
Avg total158.5-158.5
Over 151100%-100%
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake110100%101.048.0+53.0
2 Illinois (Chi.)220100%87.551.5+36.0
3 Murray State220100%93.567.5+26.0
4 Belmont220100%73.549.5+24.0
5 Valparaiso220100%81.569.0+12.5
6 Evansville220100%79.073.0+6.0
7 Illinois State21150%92.572.5+20.0
8 Southern Illinois21150%87.570.0+17.5
9 Bradley21150%68.552.0+16.5
10 Northern Iowa21150%94.584.0+10.5
11 Indiana State21150%69.572.0-2.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Southwestern Athletic conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Alabama A&M Bulldogs220100%96.552.0+44.5
2 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
3 Prairie View A&M32167%84.074.3+9.7
4 Florida A&M21150%91.072.0+19.0
5 Jackson State21150%64.580.5-16.0
6 Bethune-Cookman3030%69.784.7-15.0
7 Alcorn State2020%70.596.5-26.0
8 Miss. Valley St.1010%57.084.0-27.0
9 Alabama State1010%66.097.0-31.0
10 Southern Univ.2020%63.095.5-32.5
11 Texas Southern2020%65.097.5-32.5
12 Arkansas-Pine Bluff2020%57.0107.5-50.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Drake334275
Southern Univ.274168
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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