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El Bigua W vs Penarol W Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 06 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Projected 71-61
Projected total 132.5
Final 54-69
15-15 11-19 17-17 11-18
Position#15
Record1-4
FormLLWLL
Points / game59.4
Allowed / game67.2
El Bigua W
Argentina
Vs
82%
18%
■ EL B 82%■ PENA 18%
Pythia win probability
Penarol W 🏆
Argentina
Position#17
Record0-4
FormLLLL
Points / game48.0
Allowed / game67.2
ArgentinaLiga Femenina Women
Women2027
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

El Bigua W will host Penarol W in the Liga Femenina Women on 5 November 2026, and the Pythia model names El Bigua W the clear favourite, assigning them an 82% chance of victory largely because of their 1-4 record and 59.4 points scored per game compared with Penarol W's 0-4 record and 48.0 points per game. El Bigua W have played five games this season, winning one and losing four, with an average of 59.4 points scored and 67.2 points allowed, while Penarol W have also played four games, losing all, averaging 48.0 points scored and 67.2 points allowed. In the last five games El Bigua W won once and lost four, with recent results including a 66-62 home win over Union Bahia W on 22 October 2026 and two away losses to Velez Sarsfield W 45-62 and Boca W 59-69; Penarol W's last five were all defeats, with a 58-71 away loss to Union Bahia W on 16 October 2026 and two home defeats to Boca W 47-76 and Velez Sarsfield W 35-53. The model projects a 71-61 score for El Bigua W, a total of 132.5 points, and a 4% chance of overtime, with El Bigua W covering the spread. The game will be played at El Bigua W's home venue.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

El Bigua W winLost
81.6%fair 1.23
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Penarol W winWon
18.4%fair 5.42
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

El Bigua WArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Union Florida W
#10
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A29/03
Liga Femenina Women
Berazategui W
#7
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A30/03
Liga Femenina Women
Ferro W
#4
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H05/04
Liga Femenina Women
Ferro W
#4
L
68-81
68
81
-13
A11/04
Liga Femenina Women
Ferro W
#4
L
65-70
65
70
-5
A12/04
Liga Femenina Women
Independiente Neuquen W
#4
L
63-68
63
68
-5
A11/10
Liga Femenina Women
Quilmes W
#7
L
64-75
64
75
-11
H17/10
Liga Femenina Women
Union Bahia W
#19
W
66-62 OT
66
62
+4
H23/10
Liga Femenina Women
Boca W
#2
L
59-69
59
69
-10
A29/10
Liga Femenina Women
Velez Sarsfield W
#8
L
45-62
45
62
-17
A30/10
Liga Femenina Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-13
14-12
14-23
18-21
22-16
17-10
12-11
11-18
23-11
15-21
16-10
19-19
18-25
10-15
19-20
21-21
14-17
19-18
17-20
15-15
15-11
16-21
16-20
16-16
20-18
10-16
19-16
15-25
13-16
9-17
20-10
16-15
17-20
13-21
20-12
9-16
16-12
5-12
11-18
13-20
129.6Avg total
62.4Scored
67.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)59.467.2126.6-7.820%
Season at home (2)65.068.5133.5-3.550%
Season away (3)55.766.3122.0-10.70%
Last 10 (10)62.467.2129.6-4.830%
Last 5 (5)59.467.2126.6-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)63.573.6137.1-10.114%
vs Similar ◀ (5)65.665.8131.4-0.240%
vs Weaker (4)73.064.0137.0+9.0100%
This opponent (Penarol W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Penarol WArgentinaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quilmes W
#7
L
52-69
52
69
-17
A10/10
Liga Femenina Women
Union Bahia W
#19
L
58-71
58
71
-13
A17/10
Liga Femenina Women
Velez Sarsfield W
#8
L
35-53
35
53
-18
H25/10
Liga Femenina Women
Boca W
#2
L
47-76
47
76
-29
H25/10
Liga Femenina Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-14
10-18
12-22
19-15
19-21
14-18
17-14
8-18
14-15
10-17
10-9
1-12
8-18
9-16
15-24
15-18
115.2Avg total
48.0Scored
67.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)48.067.2115.2-19.20%
Season at home (2)41.064.5105.5-23.50%
Season away (2)55.070.0125.0-15.00%
Last 10 (4)48.067.2115.2-19.20%
Last 5 (4)48.067.2115.2-19.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)44.766.0110.7-21.30%
vs Similar ◀no games
vs Weaker (1)58.071.0129.0-13.00%
This opponent (El Bigua W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 121.5Actual: Over 121.5
Over 121.5
74.8%
Under 121.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 126.5Actual: Under 126.5
Over 126.5
64.1%
Under 126.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 131.5Actual: Under 131.5
Over 131.5
52.1%
Under 131.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

El Bigua W total 60.5Actual: El Bigua W under 60.5
Over 60.5
86.1%
Under 60.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
El Bigua W total 64.5Actual: El Bigua W under 64.5
Over 64.5
75.5%
Under 64.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
El Bigua W total 68.5Actual: El Bigua W under 68.5
Over 68.5
61.4%
Under 68.5
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol W total 58Actual: Penarol W over 58
Over 58
62.2%
Under 58
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol W total 62Actual: Penarol W over 62
Over 62
46.0%
Under 62
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penarol W total 66Actual: Penarol W over 66
Over 66
30.7%
Under 66
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread El Bigua W -3Actual: Penarol W +3
EL B -3
75.6%
PENA +3
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
EL B
No market prices yet.
PENA
No market prices yet.
Spread El Bigua W 0Actual: Penarol W 0
EL B 0
81.6%
PENA 0
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
EL B
No market prices yet.
PENA
No market prices yet.
Spread El Bigua W +3Actual: Penarol W -3
EL B +3
87.1%
PENA -3
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
EL B
No market prices yet.
PENA
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -6.5-6.5Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: -5.0-5.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -4.0-4.0Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -6.5-6.5Q3Q3: +0.4+0.4Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: -5.0-5.0
El Bigua WPenarol W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
El Bigua WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Union Florida W
#10
W
27-25
27
25
+2
A29/03
Liga Femenina Women
Berazategui W
#7
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A30/03
Liga Femenina Women
Ferro W
#4
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H05/04
Liga Femenina Women
Ferro W
#4
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A11/04
Liga Femenina Women
Ferro W
#4
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A12/04
Liga Femenina Women
Independiente Neuquen W
#4
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A11/10
Liga Femenina Women
Quilmes W
#7
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H17/10
Liga Femenina Women
Union Bahia W
#19
L
22-33
22
33
-11
H23/10
Liga Femenina Women
Boca W
#2
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A29/10
Liga Femenina Women
Velez Sarsfield W
#8
L
21-24
21
24
-3
A30/10
Liga Femenina Women
62.1Avg total
29.9Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)30.937.167.9-6.220%-
Last 30 at home (11)31.036.967.9-5.918%-
Last 30 away (19)30.837.267.9-6.421%-
Last 10 (10)29.932.262.1-2.330%-
Last 5 (5)26.832.859.6-6.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)30.938.068.9-7.119%-
vs Similar ◀ (5)31.434.065.4-2.640%-
vs Weaker (4)30.036.066.0-6.00%-
This opponent (Penarol W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Penarol WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Quilmes W
#7
L
21-32
21
32
-11
A10/10
Liga Femenina Women
Union Bahia W
#19
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A17/10
Liga Femenina Women
Velez Sarsfield W
#8
L
24-32
24
32
-8
H25/10
Liga Femenina Women
Boca W
#2
L
17-34
17
34
-17
H25/10
Liga Femenina Women
58.0Avg total
23.8Scored
34.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (4)23.834.258.0-10.50%-
Last 30 at home (2)20.533.053.5-12.50%-
Last 30 away (2)27.035.562.5-8.50%-
Last 10 (4)23.834.258.0-10.50%-
Last 5 (4)23.834.258.0-10.50%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)20.732.753.3-12.00%-
vs Similar ◀no games
vs Weaker (1)33.039.072.0-6.00%-
This opponent (El Bigua W) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
El Bigua Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

El Bigua W: 67.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 64.0 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.615.6
54.5%
42.6%31.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.88.2
31.8%
27.2%24.6
🏀 Free throws18.411.9
64.7%
63.8%11.9
They take 54.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Penarol Wtheir own shots, last 10 games
No box scores for this team yet.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
El Bigua W wins
0
Penarol W wins
No previous meetings.
El Bigua Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26AVelez Sarsfield W45-62
29/10/26ABoca W59-69
23/10/26HUnion Bahia W66-62 OT
17/10/26HQuilmes W64-75
11/10/26AIndependiente Neuquen W63-68
12/04/26AFerro W65-70
11/04/26AFerro W68-81
05/04/26HFerro W73-61
30/03/26ABerazategui W62-55
29/03/26AUnion Florida W59-69
Penarol Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/10/26HBoca W47-76
25/10/26HVelez Sarsfield W35-53
17/10/26AUnion Bahia W58-71
10/10/26AQuilmes W52-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

El Bigua W
Liga Femenina Women 2027
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL20%
HomeLW50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %20%50%0%
Points / game59.465.055.7
Allowed / game67.268.566.3
Point differential-7.8-3.5-10.7
Avg total126.6133.5122.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %20%50%0%
Penarol W
Liga Femenina Women 2027
Recent: 0 Wins / 4 Losses (last 4)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLL0%
HomeLL0%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game48.041.055.0
Allowed / game67.264.570.0
Point differential-19.2-23.5-15.0
Avg total115.2105.5125.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rocamora W550100%74.254.8+19.4
2 Boca W65183%75.058.8+16.2
3 Obras Sanitarias W65183%71.267.2+4.0
4 Independiente Neuquen W54180%62.659.2+3.4
5 El Talar W43175%72.560.2+12.2
6 Hindu W64267%69.853.3+16.5
7 Quilmes W64267%67.260.0+7.2
8 Velez Sarsfield W64267%60.254.8+5.3
9 Ferro W74357%73.961.4+12.4
10 Berazategui W42250%72.067.2+4.8
11 San Jose W42250%54.549.8+4.8
12 Instituto W42250%65.063.8+1.2
13 Union Florida W52340%64.667.2-2.6
14 Avellaneda W41325%59.564.8-5.2
15 Deportivo Chanares W51420%63.062.4+0.6
16 El Bigua W51420%59.467.2-7.8
17 Union Bahia W61517%52.764.8-12.2
18 Regatas San Nicolas W61517%54.778.8-24.2
19 Penarol W4040%48.067.2-19.2
20 Sociedad Espanola W4040%26.582.2-55.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
El Bigua W1511171154
Penarol W1519171869
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