Florida State faces Florida A&M in an NCAA contest on 2 November 2026, with the Pythia model clearly favouring the Seminoles at 86% to win over the Aggies' 14% chance; the high probability reflects Florida State's dominant scoring trend, projected at 81 points to Florida A&M's 69, and a projected total of 149.8 points that sits well below the 158.0 line, giving only a 30% chance of the over. Florida State's last five games show four wins and one loss, highlighted by a 95-89 home victory over California and a 91-78 win over SMU Mustangs, while Florida A&M also finished five games with four wins and one loss, including a 70-60 win over Jackson State and an 81-77 win over Bethune-Cookman; the Aggies' recent loss to Southern Univ. 70-73 at home is the only defeat in that span. The two teams have met once before, with the most recent encounter recorded as a 81-69 projected score in favour of Florida State. The model assigns a 3% probability that the game will go into overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Florida State winLost
85.9%fair 1.16
Best odds1.01
Implied95.4%
Edge-9.5pp
Florida A&M winWon
14.1%fair 7.11
Best odds50.00
Implied4.6%
Edge+9.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Florida State total 86.5Actual: Florida State under 86.5
Over 86.5
29.1%
@ 1.32-42.4pp
Under 86.5
70.9%
@ 3.65+42.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.65
Betano
2.87
Florida State total 90.5 · main lineActual: Florida State under 90.5
Over 90.5
17.0%
@ 1.85-33.8pp
Under 90.5
83.0%
@ 2.50+33.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.25
Marathon Be
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Florida State total 94.5Actual: Florida State under 94.5
Over 94.5
no forecast
@ 2.40
Under 94.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.02
Under
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.52
Florida A&M total 61Actual: Florida A&M over 61
Over 61
78.4%
Under 61
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Florida A&M total 65 · main lineActual: Florida A&M over 65
Over 65
64.5%
@ 1.87+14.8pp
Under 65
35.5%
@ 1.85-14.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Florida A&M total 69Actual: Florida A&M over 69
Over 69
48.4%
Under 69
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Florida State -31.5Actual: Florida A&M +31.5
FLOR -31.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
FLOR +31.5
no forecast
@ 1.58
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.22
FLOR
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.55
Spread Florida State -28.5 · main lineActual: Florida A&M +28.5
FLOR -28.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
FLOR +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.83
FLOR
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.79
Spread Florida State -25.5Actual: Florida A&M +25.5
FLOR -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.78
FLOR +25.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
Best 5 market prices
FLOR
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Be
1.72
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.58
FLOR
Bet365
2.22
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.00
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Florida StateFlorida A&M
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Florida StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virginia
#19
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H11/02
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Boston College
#308
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Clemson
#56
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A21/02
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
32-38
32
38
-6
H25/02
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A28/02
NCAA
Pittsburgh
#282
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A05/03
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
45-27
45
27
+18
H07/03
NCAA
California
#79
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/03
NCAA
Duke
#8
W
44-43
44
43
+1
A12/03
NCAA
74.8Avg total
39.0Scored
35.8Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73.5
Last 30 (30)
38.0
36.6
74.7
+1.4
53%
60%
Last 30 at home (18)
38.2
35.1
73.2
+3.1
61%
50%
Last 30 away (12)
37.8
39.0
76.8
-1.2
42%
75%
Last 10 (10)
39.0
35.8
74.8
+3.2
50%
60%
Last 5 (5)
44.4
33.6
78.0
+10.8
100%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)
34.7
42.2
76.8
-7.5
25%
75%
vs Similar (14)
40.2
33.9
74.1
+6.4
71%
50%
vs Weaker (4)
40.5
29.8
70.2
+10.8
75%
50%
Florida A&MLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
56-34
56
34
+22
H10/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
23-37
23
37
-14
A14/02
NCAA
Alcorn State
#348
W
39-29
39
29
+10
A17/02
NCAA
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
#172
D
31-31
31
31
+0
H20/02
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H21/02
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
32-33
32
33
-1
A27/02
NCAA
Grambling St.
#260
W
30-17
30
17
+13
A28/02
NCAA
Bethune-Cookman
#185
W
34-31
34
31
+3
H06/03
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H12/03
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
L
37-43
37
43
-6
H14/03
NCAA
67.5Avg total
35.5Scored
32.0Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73.5
Last 30 (30)
33.2
34.3
67.5
-1.1
50%
30%
Last 30 at home (14)
36.7
33.4
70.1
+3.4
64%
36%
Last 30 away (16)
30.1
35.1
65.2
-4.9
38%
25%
Last 10 (10)
35.5
32.0
67.5
+3.5
50%
20%
Last 5 (5)
33.2
31.6
64.8
+1.6
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)
33.6
36.1
69.6
-2.5
44%
50%
vs Similar (7)
32.4
34.7
67.1
-2.3
57%
14%
vs Weaker (6)
33.3
29.8
63.2
+3.5
50%
0%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Florida A&M win
FLOR win
no forecast
@ 1.04
FLOR win
no forecast
@ 11.75
1st half Spread Florida State -14.5 · main lineActual: Florida A&M +14.5
FLOR -14.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
FLOR +14.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.05
Florida State 1st half total 44 · main lineActual: Florida State under 44
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Florida A&M 1st half total 30 · main lineActual: Florida A&M over 30
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 75Actual: Over 75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Florida State -15.5Actual: Florida A&M +15.5
FLOR -15.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
FLOR +15.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
1st half Spread Florida State -13.5Actual: Florida A&M +13.5
FLOR -13.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
FLOR +13.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
1st half Over/Under 71.5Actual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.52
Under
no forecast
@ 2.35
1st half Over/Under 76.5Actual: Over 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Spread Florida State -16.5Actual: Florida A&M +16.5
FLOR -16.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
FLOR +16.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Spread Florida State -12.5Actual: Florida A&M +12.5
FLOR -12.5
no forecast
@ 1.53
FLOR +12.5
no forecast
@ 2.30
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.40
Under
no forecast
@ 2.67
1st half Spread Florida State -17.5Actual: Florida A&M +17.5
FLOR -17.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
FLOR +17.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
1st half Spread Florida State -11.5Actual: Florida A&M +11.5
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Florida A&M +21
78.8%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+51.6pp
Won
Florida A&M +22
81.2%
3.10
Bet365
3.10
-
-
-
-
+51.2pp
Won
Florida A&M +23
83.5%
2.75
Bet365
2.75
-
-
-
-
+49.7pp
Won
Florida A&M +24
85.5%
2.55
Bet365
2.55
-
-
-
-
+48.9pp
Won
Florida A&M +20.5
76.8%
3.30
Bet365
3.55
Betano
3.05
-
-
-
+48.6pp
Won
Florida A&M +21.5
79.3%
3.00
Bet365
3.15
Betano
2.85
-
-
-
+48.4pp
Won
Florida A&M +22.5
81.7%
2.75
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
+48.0pp
Won
Florida A&M +23.5
83.8%
2.54
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Won
Florida A&M +18
70.2%
3.75
Bet365
3.75
-
-
-
-
+45.5pp
Won
Florida A&M +19
73.3%
3.30
Bet365
3.30
-
-
-
-
+45.2pp
Won
Florida A&M +20
76.1%
3.00
Bet365
3.00
-
-
-
-
+45.1pp
Won
Florida State under 88.5
77.4%
2.80
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.70
-
-
-
+44.7pp
Won
Florida A&M +19.5
74.1%
3.08
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.05
-
-
-
+43.9pp
Won
Florida A&M +25
87.4%
2.13
Bet365
2.35
Marathon Bet
1.92
-
-
-
+43.4pp
Won
Florida A&M +18.5
71.1%
3.22
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.05
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Won
Florida State under 86.5
70.9%
3.26
Bet365
3.65
Betano
2.87
-
-
-
+42.4pp
Won
Florida A&M +24.5
85.8%
2.09
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.30
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
-
+41.3pp
Won
Florida State under 91.5
85.4%
1.93
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
+40.2pp
Won
Florida State under 87.5
74.2%
2.58
Betano
2.82
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
+38.4pp
Won
Florida State under 92
87.3%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+37.4pp
Won
Florida State under 91
85.0%
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
-
-
-
-
+35.6pp
Won
Florida State under 90.5
83.0%
2.07
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.25
Marathon Bet
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
+33.8pp
Won
Florida State under 90
82.5%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Won
Florida State under 89.5
80.3%
2.07
Betano
2.45
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+31.8pp
Won
Under 160
74.2%
1.69
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.66
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Lost
Under 159
72.1%
1.77
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.75
-
-
+19.4pp
Lost
Under 158.5
70.6%
1.84
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
+19.2pp
Lost
Under 161
76.1%
1.62
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Under 160.5
74.7%
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Lost
Under 159.5
72.7%
1.74
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.70
+18.8pp
Lost
Under 161.5
76.6%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Under 162
78.0%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+18.2pp
Lost
Under 162.5
78.4%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Under 163
79.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+17.3pp
Lost
Under 163.5
80.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Lost
Under 164
81.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Lost
Under 164.5
81.7%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+16.3pp
Lost
Under 165
83.0%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Lost
Under 165.5
83.3%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Lost
Under 166
84.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Lost
Under 166.5
84.7%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+13.8pp
Lost
Under 168.5
87.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 62.5
72.8%
1.51
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Florida A&M over 59.5
81.8%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Florida A&M over 60.5
79.0%
1.35
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+10.8pp
Won
Florida A&M over 61.5
76.0%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Florida A&M over 58.5
84.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Won
Under 173.5
92.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 57.5
86.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Florida A&M over 56.5
88.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Under 171.5
90.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M over 55.5
90.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Under 176.5
94.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 81.5
89.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 82.5
90.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 80.5
87.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 79.5
85.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Lost
Over 131.5
86.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Florida State (regulation)
84.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
-6.8pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 78.5
83.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 77.5
80.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Lost
Over 133.5
84.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Won
Florida A&M under 75.5
75.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Lost
Florida State win
85.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 76.5
77.9%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Lost
Over 136.5
79.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Florida State over 71.5
83.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.5pp
Lost
Florida A&M under 74.5
71.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-12.6pp
Lost
Florida State over 72.5
80.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.2pp
Lost
Over 138.5
75.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.0pp
Won
Florida State over 73.5
77.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-16.0pp
Lost
Florida State over 74.5
74.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-17.7pp
Lost
Florida State over 75.5
71.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.1pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.