PythiaBasketballBETA
NKLRound 15· Sport Center
The NKL clash on 19 November 2026 pits Kedainiai BC against Alytaus Patriotai, with Kedainiai arriving on a starkly different run than the more buoyant Patriotai; Kedainiai are 4-10, averaging 76.8 points while allowing 85.0, whereas Patriotai sit 8-6, scoring 83.8 and conceding 84.9, a league position of 8. Kedainiai's home record is 3-5, 75.9 points for and 78.6 against, and they have lost all five of their last games, including a 80-97 defeat to Vilkaviskis, a 71-77 loss to Neptunas, and a 90-98 loss to Vytis VDU. Patriotai, meanwhile, are 3-3 on the road, 78.5 points for and 83.7 against, and have won four of their last five, with a 85-81 win over Mazeikiai, a 73-58 victory over Ukmerges Stekas, and a 67-91 loss to Telsiai. The Pythia model favours Patriotai with a 69% chance of victory versus Kedainiai's 31%, projecting a 80-85 score and 164.5 total points; the home team line is 5-point spread, and the model assigns a 5% probability that Kedainiai will cover; the over line is 164.5 with a 5% chance of overtime. The game will likely hinge on whether Kedainiai can reverse their recent slump and keep the score within the spread.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (14) | 76.8 | 85.0 | 161.8 | -8.2 | 29% |
| Season at home (8) | 75.9 | 78.6 | 154.5 | -2.8 | 38% |
| Season away (6) | 78.0 | 93.5 | 171.5 | -15.5 | 17% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.7 | 83.6 | 161.3 | -5.9 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.2 | 90.0 | 164.2 | -15.8 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 73.7 | 88.0 | 161.7 | -14.3 | 10% |
| vs Similar (3) | 90.7 | 76.7 | 167.3 | +14.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 66.0 | 80.0 | 146.0 | -14.0 | 0% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (14) | 83.8 | 84.9 | 168.6 | -1.1 | 57% |
| Season at home (8) | 87.8 | 85.8 | 173.5 | +2.0 | 62% |
| Season away (6) | 78.5 | 83.7 | 162.2 | -5.2 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 85.6 | 82.2 | 167.8 | +3.4 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.6 | 79.4 | 162.0 | +3.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 81.8 | 89.5 | 171.3 | -7.7 | 33% |
| vs Similar (3) | 82.3 | 92.0 | 174.3 | -9.7 | 33% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 87.0 | 75.0 | 162.0 | +12.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (14) | 37.3 | 41.1 | 78.4 | -3.9 | 29% | - |
| Last 30 at home (8) | 37.0 | 38.6 | 75.6 | -1.6 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (6) | 37.7 | 44.5 | 82.2 | -6.8 | 17% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.4 | 40.4 | 76.8 | -4.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 33.6 | 45.4 | 79.0 | -11.8 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 35.1 | 42.2 | 77.3 | -7.1 | 20% | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 46.3 | 35.7 | 82.0 | +10.7 | 67% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 32.0 | 47.0 | 79.0 | -15.0 | 0% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (14) | 40.6 | 40.6 | 81.3 | +0.0 | 64% | - |
| Last 30 at home (8) | 42.0 | 40.8 | 82.8 | +1.2 | 75% | - |
| Last 30 away (6) | 38.8 | 40.5 | 79.3 | -1.7 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 42.7 | 38.5 | 81.2 | +4.2 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.2 | 38.2 | 80.4 | +4.0 | 80% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (6) | 37.5 | 41.2 | 78.7 | -3.7 | 50% | - |
| vs Similar (3) | 38.7 | 44.0 | 82.7 | -5.3 | 33% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 45.6 | 38.0 | 83.6 | +7.6 | 100% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.4 | 20.6 | 54.5% | 41.2 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 24.7 | 7.1 | 31.3% | 21.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.9 | 14.0 | 67.1% | 14.0 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 47.6 | 25.8 | 54.5% | 51.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.4 | 6.3 | 31.3% | 19.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 24.6 | 15.9 | 67.1% | 15.9 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | A | Vilkaviskis | 80-97 |
| 12/11/26 | H | Neptunas 2 | 71-77 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Vytis VDU | 90-98 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Kauno Atletas | 66-80 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Suduva-Mantinga | 64-98 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Ukmerges Stekas | 97-76 |
| 24/10/26 | H | Plunges Olimpas | 62-75 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Rytas 2 | 83-69 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Jurbarkas | 72-81 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Mazeikiai | 92-85 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Mazeikiai | 85-81 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Telsiai | 67-91 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Ukmerges Stekas | 73-58 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Plunges Olimpas | 87-76 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Rytas 2 | 101-91 |
| 29/10/26 | H | BC Olimpas Palanga | 81-84 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Omega-Tauras | 85-74 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Kretinga | 90-70 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Silute | 77-92 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Vytis VDU | 110-105 OT |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 29% |
| Home | WLWLL | 38% |
| Away | WLLLL | 17% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Win % | 29% | 38% | 17% |
| Points / game | 76.8 | 75.9 | 78.0 |
| Allowed / game | 85.0 | 78.6 | 93.5 |
| Point differential | -8.2 | -2.8 | -15.5 |
| Avg total | 161.8 | 154.5 | 171.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 21% | 25% | 17% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLW | 57% |
| Home | WWLWW | 62% |
| Away | LWWWL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 14 | 8 | 6 |
| Win % | 57% | 62% | 50% |
| Points / game | 83.8 | 87.8 | 78.5 |
| Allowed / game | 84.9 | 85.8 | 83.7 |
| Point differential | -1.1 | +2.0 | -5.2 |
| Avg total | 168.6 | 173.5 | 162.2 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 43% | 38% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | 67% (3) | - |
| Overtime % | 14% | 25% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Telsiai | 13 | 12 | 1 | 92% | 90.5 | 73.6 | +16.9 |
| 2 | Jurbarkas | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 88.6 | 78.3 | +10.3 |
| 3 |  BC Olimpas Palanga | 14 | 11 | 3 | 79% | 96.3 | 84.6 | +11.6 |
| 4 |  Suduva-Mantinga | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 91.5 | 77.8 | +13.8 |
| 5 |  Vytis VDU | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 96.1 | 89.1 | +7.0 |
| 6 |  Neptunas 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 71% | 78.4 | 74.1 | +4.2 |
| 7 |  Silute | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 84.3 | 82.2 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Alytaus Patriotai | 14 | 8 | 6 | 57% | 83.8 | 84.9 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Omega-Tauras | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 89.4 | 85.9 | +3.4 |
| 10 | Plunges Olimpas | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 83.1 | 81.1 | +2.1 |
| 11 |  Vilkaviskis | 14 | 6 | 8 | 43% | 83.1 | 86.1 | -3.0 |
| 12 |  Zalgiris Kaunas 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 94.2 | 96.8 | -2.7 |
| 13 | Ukmerges Stekas | 14 | 5 | 9 | 36% | 78.9 | 88.1 | -9.2 |
| 14 | Kedainiai BC | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 76.8 | 85.0 | -8.2 |
| 15 |  Mazeikiai | 14 | 3 | 11 | 21% | 78.9 | 88.9 | -10.0 |
| 16 | Kretinga | 13 | 2 | 11 | 15% | 81.5 | 90.7 | -9.2 |
| 17 |  Kauno Atletas | 14 | 2 | 12 | 14% | 79.1 | 94.4 | -15.3 |
| 18 |  Rytas 2 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 7% | 77.1 | 86.9 | -9.7 |
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