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Leonesa vs Algeciras Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:30
Projected 82-79
Projected total 161.8
Scheduled
Position#8
Record4-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game84.8
Allowed / game80.7
Vs
61%
39%
■ LEON 61%■ ALGE 39%
Pythia win probability
Position#13
Record3-3
FormLLWLW
Points / game81.7
Allowed / game80.3
SpainSegunda FEBRound 7
Other2026-27
Meetings · Leonesa v Algeciras
15 Nov 2026
LEON v ALGE
upcoming
06 Oct 2024
LEON83
ALGE68
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Leonesa host Algeciras on 15 November 2026 in the Segunda FEB, with the Pythia model designating Leonesa as the favourite and forecasting a 61% chance of victory over Algeciras' 39% probability, a projected score of 82-79 and a total of 161.8 points; the home line is -6.5 with a 39% chance of covering and the over/under 162.5 carries a 47% probability of exceeding the line, while the chance of overtime is 5%. Leonesa finish the season 4-2, 84.8 points per game and 80.7 points allowed, positioned 8th in the league, and at home they are 2-1 with 86.0 points per game and 80.3 allowed; their last five games include a 83-72 win over Badajoz and a 86-83 win over CB Getafe, but a recent 81-83 loss to Caceres on 7 November. Algeciras are 3-3 overall, 81.7 points per game and 80.3 allowed, ranked 13th, yet they are 0-3 on the road, scoring 80.0 and conceding 93.0; their last five feature a 92-68 win over Ponferrada, a 90-93 loss to CBC Valladolid, and a 71-66 win over Jaen Paraiso. In their two previous meetings, each side has won once, with Algeciras' last win over Leonesa coming 72-67 on 11 January 2025.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Leonesa win
60.7%fair 1.65
Best odds1.50
Implied63.5%
Edge-2.8pp
Algeciras win
39.3%fair 2.55
Best odds2.55
Implied36.5%
Edge+2.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

LeonesaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Logrono
#24
W
68-56
68
56
+12
A29/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
83-93
83
93
-10
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
W
85-73
85
73
+12
A11/04
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
L
88-91
88
91
-3
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
W
83-73
83
73
+10
H04/10
Segunda FEB
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
W
84-77 OT
84
77
+7
A11/10
Segunda FEB
Melilla
#1
L
92-96
92
96
-4
H18/10
Segunda FEB
CB Getafe
#23
W
86-83 OT
86
83
+3
A24/10
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
W
83-72
83
72
+11
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
L
81-83
81
83
-2
A07/11
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
21-10
14-22
13-5
18-16
23-29
15-20
27-28
26-25
13-17
21-14
25-17
27-18
22-21
16-31
23-21
14-16
28-18
17-19
24-20
20-17
13-22
16-7
18-21
25-14
19-29
17-21
31-32
14-22
22-13
19-20
16-16
16-24
18-18
23-17
26-13
14-27
21-16
21-27
25-13
163.0Avg total
83.3Scored
79.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)84.880.7165.5+4.267%
Season at home (3)86.080.3166.3+5.767%
Season away (3)83.781.0164.7+2.767%
Last 10 (10)83.379.7163.0+3.660%
Last 5 (5)85.282.2167.4+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)80.888.1168.9-7.321%
vs Similar ◀ (6)82.783.2165.8-0.550%
vs Weaker (10)86.481.1167.5+5.380%
This opponent (Algeciras) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlgecirasSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraurgi SB
#14
W
78-63
78
63
+15
A30/03
Segunda FEB
Huesca
#5
L
86-88 OT
86
88
-2
A05/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#10
W
81-71
81
71
+10
H10/04
Segunda FEB
Caja 87
#12
W
74-69
74
69
+5
A19/04
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
W
87-69
87
69
+18
H03/10
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
L
71-86
71
86
-15
A10/10
Segunda FEB
Toledo
#15
L
79-100
79
100
-21
A18/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
71-66
71
66
+5
H25/10
Segunda FEB
CBC Valladolid
#6
L
90-93
90
93
-3
A31/10
Segunda FEB
Ponferrada
#14
W
92-68
92
68
+24
H08/11
Segunda FEB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-15
12-19
20-8
20-21
18-12
20-25
20-21
21-21
19-16
25-17
24-23
13-15
22-19
20-15
16-13
16-22
15-20
20-20
24-10
28-19
22-19
11-21
22-24
16-22
15-26
25-19
22-25
17-30
21-22
26-13
12-19
12-12
22-22
23-28
24-22
21-21
20-20
28-18
23-12
21-18
158.2Avg total
80.9Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)81.780.3162.0+1.350%
Season at home (3)83.367.7151.0+15.7100%
Season away (3)80.093.0173.0-13.00%
Last 10 (10)80.977.3158.2+3.660%
Last 5 (5)80.682.6163.2-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)73.578.6152.1-5.130%
vs Similar ◀ (19)75.676.3151.8-0.747%
vs Weaker (1)87.069.0156.0+18.0100%
This opponent (Leonesa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 157.5
Over 157.5
59.4%
Under 157.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162.5 · main line
Over 162.5
47.4%
@ 1.85-2.6pp
Under 162.5
52.6%
@ 1.85+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 167.5
Over 167.5
35.7%
Under 167.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Leonesa total 80.5
Over 80.5
57.3%
@ 1.48-1.4pp
Under 80.5
42.7%
@ 2.10+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.10
Leonesa total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
41.8%
@ 1.91-7.4pp
Under 84.5
58.2%
@ 1.82+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.58
Leonesa total 88.5
Over 88.5
27.5%
Under 88.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Algeciras total 74.5
Over 74.5
67.6%
Under 74.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Algeciras total 78.5 · main line
Over 78.5
52.7%
@ 1.83+2.3pp
Under 78.5
47.3%
@ 1.83-2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Algeciras total 82.5
Over 82.5
37.6%
@ 2.21-1.8pp
Under 82.5
62.4%
@ 1.44+1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Under
1xBet
1.44

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Leonesa -9.5
LEON -9.5
28.7%
ALGE +9.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
LEON
No market prices yet.
ALGE
No market prices yet.
Spread Leonesa -6.5 · main line
LEON -6.5
38.8%
@ 2.13-11.2pp
ALGE +6.5
61.2%
@ 1.83+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
ALGE
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.51
Spread Leonesa -3.5
LEON -3.5
50.2%
@ 1.69-2.0pp
ALGE +3.5
49.8%
@ 1.84+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
1.69
ALGE
1xBet
1.84

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -1.6-1.6
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.4-0.4Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: -1.9-1.9Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -1.6-1.6
LeonesaAlgeciras
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LeonesaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Logrono
#24
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A29/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
41-45
41
45
-4
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
L
39-42
39
42
-3
A11/04
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H04/10
Segunda FEB
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A11/10
Segunda FEB
Melilla
#1
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H18/10
Segunda FEB
CB Getafe
#23
W
36-35
36
35
+1
A24/10
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A07/11
Segunda FEB
78.5Avg total
39.4Scored
39.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80.5
Last 30 (30)40.741.982.6-1.240%57%
Last 30 at home (15)42.141.984.0+0.340%67%
Last 30 away (15)39.341.981.1-2.640%47%
Last 10 (10)39.439.178.5+0.350%40%
Last 5 (5)36.440.476.8-4.040%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)40.543.684.1-3.136%71%
vs Similar ◀ (6)41.840.282.0+1.750%50%
vs Weaker (10)40.340.480.7-0.140%40%
This opponent (Algeciras) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlgecirasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraurgi SB
#14
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A30/03
Segunda FEB
Huesca
#5
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A05/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#10
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H10/04
Segunda FEB
Caja 87
#12
W
42-34
42
34
+8
A19/04
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
L
35-40
35
40
-5
H03/10
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A10/10
Segunda FEB
Toledo
#15
L
40-45
40
45
-5
A18/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
47-35
47
35
+12
H25/10
Segunda FEB
CBC Valladolid
#6
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A31/10
Segunda FEB
Ponferrada
#14
W
48-38
48
38
+10
H08/11
Segunda FEB
79.6Avg total
41.0Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 80.5
Last 30 (30)38.737.576.2+1.157%33%
Last 30 at home (15)38.036.574.5+1.560%27%
Last 30 away (15)39.338.677.9+0.753%40%
Last 10 (10)41.038.679.6+2.460%40%
Last 5 (5)42.641.684.2+1.040%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)35.437.472.8-2.030%20%
vs Similar ◀ (19)40.637.578.1+3.174%42%
vs Weaker (1)35.040.075.0-5.00%0%
This opponent (Leonesa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
LEON win
no forecast
@ 1.55
ALGE win
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half Spread Leonesa -3.5 · main line
LEON -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.96
ALGE +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 80.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
Leonesa 1st half total 41.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Algeciras 1st half total 39.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
1st half: LEON + total 80.5
LEON & over
no forecast
@ 3.10
LEON & under
no forecast
@ 3.20
1st half: Draw + total 80.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 29.00
1st half: ALGE + total 80.5
ALGE & over
no forecast
@ 4.50
ALGE & under
no forecast
@ 4.50
1st half Over/Under 81.75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Leonesa -4.5
LEON -4.5
no forecast
@ 2.12
ALGE +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.52
1st half Spread Leonesa -2.5
LEON -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
ALGE +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
LEON
no forecast
@ 1.67
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
ALGE
no forecast
@ 2.51

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
LEON win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
ALGE win + total 162.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LEON leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ALGE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 1 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Leonesa wins
1
Algeciras wins
DateGameScore
11/01/25Algeciras v Leonesa72-67
06/10/24Leonesa v Algeciras83-68
Leonesalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26ACaceres81-83
01/11/26HBadajoz83-72
24/10/26ACB Getafe86-83 OT
18/10/26HMelilla92-96
11/10/26ASpanish Basketball Academy84-77 OT
04/10/26HMoron83-73
18/04/26HClavijo88-91
11/04/26AGijon85-73
05/04/26HMoron83-93
29/03/26ALogrono68-56
Algeciraslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HPonferrada92-68
31/10/26ACBC Valladolid90-93
25/10/26HJaen Paraiso71-66
18/10/26AToledo79-100
10/10/26ACaceres71-86
03/10/26HBadajoz87-69
19/04/25ACaja 8774-69
10/04/25HCaceres81-71
05/04/25AHuesca86-88 OT
30/03/25AIraurgi SB78-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Leonesa
Segunda FEB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL67%
HomeWLW67%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game84.886.083.7
Allowed / game80.780.381.0
Point differential+4.2+5.7+2.7
Avg total165.5166.3164.7
Over 162.550%33%67%
Win by 10+33%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %33%0%67%
Algeciras
Segunda FEB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW50%
HomeWWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game81.783.380.0
Allowed / game80.367.793.0
Point differential+1.3+15.7-13.0
Avg total162.0151.0173.0
Over 162.533%0%67%
Win by 10+33%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Melilla660100%84.370.0+14.3
2 Benicarlo550100%77.868.2+9.6
3 Caceres76186%85.376.4+8.9
4 Sant Antoni65183%80.063.8+16.2
5 CB Zaragoza65183%86.374.5+11.8
6 CBC Valladolid75271%84.776.1+8.6
7 Prat Joventut75271%80.474.4+6.0
8 Leonesa64267%84.880.7+4.2
9 Huesca74357%86.783.6+3.1
10 Gandia74357%80.679.9+0.7
11 Moron74357%76.976.9+0.0
12 Lliria74357%70.772.6-1.9
13 Algeciras63350%81.780.3+1.3
14 Ponferrada63350%79.381.3-2.0
15 Toledo73443%83.383.3+0.0
16 Cartagena73443%82.484.9-2.4
17 Clavijo73443%72.976.1-3.3
18 Tres Cantos73443%71.779.4-7.7
19 Logrono62433%81.081.2-0.2
20 Spanish Basketball Academy62433%78.078.8-0.8
21 Jaen Paraiso62433%77.780.3-2.7
22 Iraurgi SB62433%77.882.5-4.7
23 CB Getafe72529%74.978.3-3.4
24 Castello72529%74.479.6-5.1
25 Estudiantes B72529%75.081.4-6.4
26 Sol Girones Bisbal72529%72.682.9-10.3
27 Badajoz71614%73.085.1-12.1
28 Molina Basket7070%63.376.9-13.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 28 teams: scroll the table.
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