Leonesa host Algeciras on 15 November 2026 in the Segunda FEB, with the Pythia model designating Leonesa as the favourite and forecasting a 61% chance of victory over Algeciras' 39% probability, a projected score of 82-79 and a total of 161.8 points; the home line is -6.5 with a 39% chance of covering and the over/under 162.5 carries a 47% probability of exceeding the line, while the chance of overtime is 5%. Leonesa finish the season 4-2, 84.8 points per game and 80.7 points allowed, positioned 8th in the league, and at home they are 2-1 with 86.0 points per game and 80.3 allowed; their last five games include a 83-72 win over Badajoz and a 86-83 win over CB Getafe, but a recent 81-83 loss to Caceres on 7 November. Algeciras are 3-3 overall, 81.7 points per game and 80.3 allowed, ranked 13th, yet they are 0-3 on the road, scoring 80.0 and conceding 93.0; their last five feature a 92-68 win over Ponferrada, a 90-93 loss to CBC Valladolid, and a 71-66 win over Jaen Paraiso. In their two previous meetings, each side has won once, with Algeciras' last win over Leonesa coming 72-67 on 11 January 2025.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leonesa win
60.7%fair 1.65
Best odds1.50
Implied63.5%
Edge-2.8pp
Algeciras win
39.3%fair 2.55
Best odds2.55
Implied36.5%
Edge+2.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 22:22 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Leonesa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 157.5
Over 157.5
59.4%
Under 157.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 162.5 · main line
Over 162.5
47.4%
@ 1.85-2.6pp
Under 162.5
52.6%
@ 1.85+2.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Over/Under 167.5
Over 167.5
35.7%
Under 167.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
📊 3. Team Totals
Leonesa total 80.5
Over 80.5
57.3%
@ 1.48-1.4pp
Under 80.5
42.7%
@ 2.10+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Under
1xBet
2.10
Leonesa total 84.5 · main line
Over 84.5
41.8%
@ 1.91-7.4pp
Under 84.5
58.2%
@ 1.82+7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Betano
1.82
Under
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.58
Leonesa total 88.5
Over 88.5
27.5%
Under 88.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Algeciras total 74.5
Over 74.5
67.6%
Under 74.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Algeciras total 78.5 · main line
Over 78.5
52.7%
@ 1.83+2.3pp
Under 78.5
47.3%
@ 1.83-2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Algeciras total 82.5
Over 82.5
37.6%
@ 2.21-1.8pp
Under 82.5
62.4%
@ 1.44+1.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.21
Under
1xBet
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Leonesa -9.5
LEON -9.5
28.7%
ALGE +9.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
LEON
No market prices yet.
ALGE
No market prices yet.
Spread Leonesa -6.5 · main line
LEON -6.5
38.8%
@ 2.13-11.2pp
ALGE +6.5
61.2%
@ 1.83+11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
2.13
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
ALGE
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.51
Spread Leonesa -3.5
LEON -3.5
50.2%
@ 1.69-2.0pp
ALGE +3.5
49.8%
@ 1.84+2.0pp
Best 5 market prices
LEON
1xBet
1.69
ALGE
1xBet
1.84
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
LeonesaAlgeciras
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
LELeonesaLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Logrono
#24
W
20-19
20
19
+1
A29/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
W
18-16
18
16
+2
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
W
26-25
26
25
+1
A11/04
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
27-18
27
18
+9
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
14-16
14
16
-2
H04/10
Segunda FEB
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
W
20-17
20
17
+3
A11/10
Segunda FEB
Melilla
#1
W
25-14
25
14
+11
H18/10
Segunda FEB
CB Getafe
#23
L
14-22
14
22
-8
A24/10
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
L
16-24
16
24
-8
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
L
14-27
14
27
-13
A07/11
Segunda FEB
39.2Avg total
19.4Scored
19.8Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)
20.8
21.8
42.6
-1.0
47%
60%
Last 30 at home (15)
20.8
20.8
41.6
+0.0
40%
53%
Last 30 away (15)
20.8
22.7
43.5
-1.9
53%
67%
Last 10 (10)
19.4
19.8
39.2
-0.4
60%
30%
Last 5 (5)
17.8
20.8
38.6
-3.0
40%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)
21.5
22.9
44.4
-1.4
43%
79%
vs Similar ◀ (6)
19.8
19.7
39.5
+0.2
67%
33%
vs Weaker (10)
20.4
21.5
41.9
-1.1
40%
50%
This opponent (Algeciras) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlgecirasLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraurgi SB
#14
W
26-15
26
15
+11
A30/03
Segunda FEB
Huesca
#5
W
18-12
18
12
+6
A05/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#10
W
19-16
19
16
+3
H10/04
Segunda FEB
Caja 87
#12
W
22-19
22
19
+3
A19/04
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
L
15-20
15
20
-5
H03/10
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
W
22-19
22
19
+3
A10/10
Segunda FEB
Toledo
#15
L
15-26
15
26
-11
A18/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
L
21-22
21
22
-1
H25/10
Segunda FEB
CBC Valladolid
#6
D
22-22
22
22
+0
A31/10
Segunda FEB
Ponferrada
#14
D
20-20
20
20
+0
H08/11
Segunda FEB
39.1Avg total
20.0Scored
19.1Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)
18.9
19.7
38.6
-0.8
37%
43%
Last 30 at home (15)
18.3
19.7
37.9
-1.4
33%
20%
Last 30 away (15)
19.5
19.8
39.3
-0.3
40%
67%
Last 10 (10)
20.0
19.1
39.1
+0.9
50%
60%
Last 5 (5)
20.0
21.8
41.8
-1.8
20%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)
17.9
18.6
36.5
-0.7
40%
30%
vs Similar ◀ (19)
19.6
20.3
39.9
-0.7
37%
53%
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
20.0
35.0
-5.0
0%
0%
This opponent (Leonesa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st quarter winner
LEON win
no forecast
@ 1.64
ALGE win
no forecast
@ 2.15
Q1 Spread Leonesa -1.5 · main line
LEON -1.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
ALGE +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
Q1 Over/Under 40.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Leonesa 1st quarter total 20.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.75
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
Algeciras 1st quarter total 19.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Q1 Spread Leonesa -2.5
LEON -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
ALGE +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.61
1st quarter 3-way (draw possible)
LEON
no forecast
@ 1.76
Draw
no forecast
@ 15.00
ALGE
no forecast
@ 2.33
1st quarter double chance
LEON or draw
no forecast
@ 1.57
LEON or ALGE
no forecast
@ 1.04
Draw or ALGE
no forecast
@ 1.99
LELeonesaLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Logrono
#24
W
21-10
21
10
+11
A29/03
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
L
23-29
23
29
-6
H05/04
Segunda FEB
Gijon
#27
L
13-17
13
17
-4
A11/04
Segunda FEB
Clavijo
#10
W
22-21
22
21
+1
H18/04
Segunda FEB
Moron
#11
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H04/10
Segunda FEB
Spanish Basketball Academy
#20
L
13-22
13
22
-9
A11/10
Segunda FEB
Melilla
#1
L
19-29
19
29
-10
H18/10
Segunda FEB
CB Getafe
#23
W
22-13
22
13
+9
A24/10
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
D
18-18
18
18
+0
H01/11
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
W
21-16
21
16
+5
A07/11
Segunda FEB
39.3Avg total
20.0Scored
19.3Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over main line
Last 30 (30)
19.9
20.1
40.0
-0.2
43%
-
Last 30 at home (15)
21.3
21.1
42.4
+0.3
47%
-
Last 30 away (15)
18.5
19.1
37.6
-0.7
40%
-
Last 10 (10)
20.0
19.3
39.3
+0.7
50%
-
Last 5 (5)
18.6
19.6
38.2
-1.0
40%
-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)
19.0
20.8
39.8
-1.8
36%
-
vs Similar ◀ (6)
22.0
20.5
42.5
+1.5
67%
-
vs Weaker (10)
19.9
18.9
38.8
+1.0
40%
-
This opponent (Algeciras) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AlgecirasLast 10 – 2nd quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraurgi SB
#14
L
12-19
12
19
-7
A30/03
Segunda FEB
Huesca
#5
L
20-25
20
25
-5
A05/04
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#10
W
25-17
25
17
+8
H10/04
Segunda FEB
Caja 87
#12
W
20-15
20
15
+5
A19/04
Segunda FEB
Badajoz
#27
D
20-20
20
20
+0
H03/10
Segunda FEB
Caceres
#3
L
11-21
11
21
-10
A10/10
Segunda FEB
Toledo
#15
W
25-19
25
19
+6
A18/10
Segunda FEB
Jaen Paraiso
#21
W
26-13
26
13
+13
H25/10
Segunda FEB
CBC Valladolid
#6
L
23-28
23
28
-5
A31/10
Segunda FEB
Ponferrada
#14
W
28-18
28
18
+10
H08/11
Segunda FEB
40.5Avg total
21.0Scored
19.5Allowed
2nd quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over main line
Last 30 (30)
19.8
17.8
37.6
+2.0
57%
-
Last 30 at home (15)
19.7
16.8
36.5
+2.9
67%
-
Last 30 away (15)
19.8
18.8
38.6
+1.0
47%
-
Last 10 (10)
21.0
19.5
40.5
+1.5
50%
-
Last 5 (5)
22.6
19.8
42.4
+2.8
60%
-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)
17.5
18.8
36.3
-1.3
30%
-
vs Similar ◀ (19)
20.9
17.2
38.1
+3.8
74%
-
vs Weaker (1)
20.0
20.0
40.0
+0.0
0%
-
This opponent (Leonesa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
This opponent (Leonesa) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 2nd half markets priced for this game yet.
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 28 teams: scroll the table.
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.