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Liege W vs Waregem W Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 14:00
Projected 78-61
Projected total 139.9
Final 86-58
19-13 15-9 30-18 22-18
Position#6
Record3-3
FormLWWLW
Points / game67.7
Allowed / game68.2
Liege W 🏆
Belgium
Vs
93%
■ LIEG 93%■ WARE 7%
Pythia win probability
Waregem W
Belgium
Position#10
Record0-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game62.8
Allowed / game88.5
BelgiumTop Division Women· Salle du Bois Saint-Jean
Women2026-27
Meetings · Liege W v Waregem W
08 Nov 2026
LIEG86
WARE58
25 Oct 2025
LIEG70
WARE45
01 Mar 2025
LIEG63
WARE67
30 Sep 2023
LIEG75
WARE60
21 Jan 2023
LIEG94
WARE72
02 Mar 2022
LIEG90
WARE60
20 Feb 2021
LIEG76
WARE49
03 Mar 2018
LIEG71
WARE66
20 Jan 2018
LIEG59
WARE79
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Liege W will host Waregem W on 8 November 2026 in the Top Division Women, and the Pythia model rates Liege W the clear favourite, giving them a 93% chance of winning largely because of their 3-3 record and 67.7 points scored per game versus Waregem W's 0-6 record and 62.8 points per game. Liege W has been solid at home, going 2-0 with 83.0 points per game and 56.5 allowed, while Waregem W has struggled on the road, going 0-3 with 55.7 points per game and 93.7 allowed. The last five games for Liege W show three wins and two losses, including a 77-59 win over Donza W at home, whereas Waregem W has lost all five recent matches, most notably a 60-92 defeat to Phantoms W away. In their ten meetings, Liege W has won seven times, with the most recent encounter on 7 February 2026 ending 69-65 in Liege W's favour. Pythia projects a 78-61 score, a total of 139.9 points, and a 52% chance that Liege W will cover the -16.5 line, while the over on the 137.5 total has a 56% probability; overtime is unlikely at 2%. The game will hinge on whether Waregem W can stop Liege W's high-scoring home offense.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Liege W winWon
92.9%fair 1.08
Best odds1.10
Implied85.9%
Edge+7.0pp
Waregem W winLost
7.1%fair 14.04
Best odds8.75
Implied14.1%
Edge-7.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Liege WBelgiumLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Spirou Basket W
#9
W
53-43
53
43
+10
48avg 58
H28/03
Top Division Women
Phantoms W
#6
W
89-87 OT
89
87
+2
74avg 58
A04/04
Top Division Women
Namur W
#3
L
50-66
50
66
-16
43avg 58
H10/04
Top Division Women
Namur W
#3
L
39-96
39
96
-57
18avg 58
A12/04
Top Division Women
Phantoms W
#4
L
53-58
53
58
-5
39avg 58
A27/09
Top Division Women
Mechelen W
#1
L
50-92
50
92
-42
36avg 58
A03/10
Top Division Women
Spirou Basket W
#8
W
68-50
68
50
+18
63avg 58
A11/10
Top Division Women
Lummen W
#11
W
89-54
89
54
+35
97avg 58
H16/10
Top Division Women
Braine W
#2
L
69-96
69
96
-27
55avg 58
A24/10
Top Division Women
Donza W
#9
W
77-59
77
59
+18
67avg 58
H31/10
Top Division Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-10
14-8
13-9
15-16
18-23
19-13
11-17
25-20
11-15
9-19
18-12
12-20
6-30
7-22
13-23
13-21
8-10
16-20
15-12
14-16
11-24
20-21
10-27
9-20
12-13
17-13
19-18
20-6
22-11
22-7
27-16
18-20
13-22
10-26
22-23
24-25
24-14
19-17
13-20
21-8
133.8Avg total
63.7Scored
70.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)67.768.2135.8-0.550%
Season at home (2)83.056.5139.5+26.5100%
Season away (4)60.074.0134.0-14.025%
Last 10 (10)63.770.1133.8-6.450%
Last 5 (5)70.670.2140.8+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)56.678.7135.3-22.18%
vs Similar (4)75.578.8154.2-3.250%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)74.852.7127.5+22.192%
This opponent (Waregem W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Waregem WBelgiumLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Charleroi W
#11
W
20-0
20
0
+20
no box
A18/04
Top Division Women
Lummen W
#12
W
78-54
78
54
+24
76avg 52
A25/04
Top Division Women
Spirou Basket W
#9
W
72-46
72
46
+26
73avg 52
H29/04
Top Division Women
Charleroi W
#11
W
20-0
20
0
+20
no box
H02/05
Top Division Women
Braine W
#2
L
64-94
64
94
-30
45avg 52
A26/09
Top Division Women
Donza W
#9
L
60-85
60
85
-25
54avg 52
H03/10
Top Division Women
Jeugd Gentson W
#7
L
83-86 OT
83
86
-3
70avg 52
H10/10
Top Division Women
Namur W
#3
L
43-95
43
95
-52
25avg 52
A17/10
Top Division Women
Kortrijk W
#5
L
67-79
67
79
-12
56avg 52
H24/10
Top Division Women
Phantoms W
#4
L
60-92
60
92
-32
43avg 52
A31/10
Top Division Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
–
–
–
–
17-5
22-16
15-18
24-15
14-12
20-13
16-10
22-11
–
–
–
–
20-23
13-29
13-18
18-24
12-24
12-18
22-17
14-26
27-20
18-19
17-25
15-13
4-23
16-25
12-23
11-24
19-22
19-19
20-21
9-17
13-24
19-23
13-25
15-20
119.8Avg total
56.7Scored
63.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)62.888.5151.3-25.70%
Season at home (3)70.083.3153.3-13.30%
Season away (3)55.793.7149.3-38.00%
Last 10 (10)56.763.1119.8-6.440%
Last 5 (5)62.687.4150.0-24.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)57.680.0137.6-22.46%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (13)59.649.1108.7+10.577%
This opponent (Liege W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 132.5Actual: Over 132.5
Over 132.5
67.4%
Under 132.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 137.5 · main lineActual: Over 137.5
Over 137.5
55.6%
@ 1.91+6.2pp
Under 137.5
44.4%
@ 1.83-6.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
1xBet
1.75
Over/Under 142.5Actual: Over 142.5
Over 142.5
43.3%
Under 142.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Liege W total 71.5Actual: Liege W over 71.5
Over 71.5
75.9%
@ 1.36+11.4pp
Under 71.5
24.1%
@ 2.48-11.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Under
1xBet
2.48
Liege W total 75.5 · main lineActual: Liege W over 75.5
Over 75.5
61.8%
@ 1.70+11.2pp
Under 75.5
38.2%
@ 1.74-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Under
1xBet
1.74
Liege W total 79.5Actual: Liege W over 79.5
Over 79.5
45.7%
@ 2.38+9.0pp
Under 79.5
54.3%
@ 1.38-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.38
Waregem W total 56.5Actual: Waregem W over 56.5
Over 56.5
68.6%
@ 1.32+1.7pp
Under 56.5
31.4%
@ 2.66-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
2.66
Waregem W total 60.5 · main lineActual: Waregem W under 60.5
Over 60.5
53.3%
@ 1.85+3.3pp
Under 60.5
46.7%
@ 1.83-3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.65
Under
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.81
Betano
1.80
Waregem W total 64.5Actual: Waregem W under 64.5
Over 64.5
37.5%
@ 2.30-0.5pp
Under 64.5
62.5%
@ 1.41+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.30
Under
1xBet
1.41

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Liege W -19.5Actual: Liege W -19.5
LIEG -19.5
41.1%
@ 2.76+8.9pp
WARE +19.5
58.9%
@ 1.31-8.9pp
Best 5 market prices
LIEG
1xBet
2.76
WARE
1xBet
1.31
Spread Liege W -16.5 · main lineActual: Liege W -16.5
LIEG -16.5
51.7%
@ 2.07+1.7pp
WARE +16.5
48.3%
@ 1.83-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
LIEG
1xBet
2.07
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
WARE
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.54
Spread Liege W -13.5Actual: Liege W -13.5
LIEG -13.5
62.2%
@ 1.66+9.0pp
WARE +13.5
37.8%
@ 1.89-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
LIEG
1xBet
1.66
WARE
1xBet
1.89

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -2.8-2.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.6-3.6Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -2.8-2.8
Liege WWaregem W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Liege WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Spirou Basket W
#9
W
25-18
25
18
+7
H28/03
Top Division Women
Phantoms W
#6
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A04/04
Top Division Women
Namur W
#3
L
20-34
20
34
-14
H10/04
Top Division Women
Namur W
#3
L
13-52
13
52
-39
A12/04
Top Division Women
Phantoms W
#4
L
24-30
24
30
-6
A27/09
Top Division Women
Mechelen W
#1
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A03/10
Top Division Women
Spirou Basket W
#8
W
29-26
29
26
+3
A11/10
Top Division Women
Lummen W
#11
W
44-18
44
18
+26
H16/10
Top Division Women
Braine W
#2
L
23-48
23
48
-25
A24/10
Top Division Women
Donza W
#9
W
43-31
43
31
+12
H31/10
Top Division Women
62.7Avg total
28.9Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (29)32.633.566.1-1.052%45%
Last 30 at home (14)35.929.965.7+6.064%43%
Last 30 away (15)29.536.966.4-7.540%47%
Last 10 (10)28.933.862.7-4.950%40%
Last 5 (5)34.033.667.6+0.460%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)26.438.965.3-12.515%38%
vs Similar (3)37.338.375.7-1.067%100%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)37.627.064.6+10.685%38%
This opponent (Waregem W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Waregem WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lummen W
#12
W
39-21
39
21
+18
A25/04
Top Division Women
Spirou Basket W
#9
W
34-25
34
25
+9
H29/04
Top Division Women
Braine W
#2
L
33-52
33
52
-19
A26/09
Top Division Women
Donza W
#9
L
24-42
24
42
-18
H03/10
Top Division Women
Jeugd Gentson W
#7
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H10/10
Top Division Women
Namur W
#3
L
20-48
20
48
-28
A17/10
Top Division Women
Kortrijk W
#5
L
38-41
38
41
-3
H24/10
Top Division Women
Phantoms W
#4
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A31/10
Top Division Women
72.5Avg total
33.1Scored
39.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 68.5
Last 30 (28)30.535.766.2-5.232%39%
Last 30 at home (14)31.935.667.4-3.736%43%
Last 30 away (14)29.135.965.0-6.729%36%
Last 10 (8)33.139.472.5-6.238%50%
Last 5 (5)31.843.475.2-11.620%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (17)29.041.370.3-12.312%53%
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker (11)32.827.159.9+5.764%18%
This opponent (Liege W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Liege W win
LIEG win
no forecast
@ 1.18
WARE win
no forecast
@ 4.93
1st half Spread Liege W -8.5 · main lineActual: Liege W -8.5
LIEG -8.5
no forecast
@ 1.86
WARE +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 68.5 · main lineActual: Under 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.81
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Liege W 1st half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Liege W under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Waregem W 1st half total 29.5 · main lineActual: Waregem W under 29.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half: LIEG + total 68.5
LIEG & over
no forecast
@ 2.30
LIEG & under
no forecast
@ 2.40
1st half: Draw + total 68.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 36.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Liege W (regulation)
LIEG
no forecast
@ 1.22
Draw
no forecast
@ 21.00
WARE
no forecast
@ 4.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
LIEG win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
WARE win + total 137.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LIEG leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: WARE leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
Quarters won (LIEG:WARE): LIEG wins more
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Liege W over 72.572.7%1.42
1xBet
1.42		----+11.4ppWon
Liege W over 71.575.9%1.36
1xBet
1.36		----+11.4ppWon
Liege W over 70.579.0%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+11.0ppWon
Liege W (regulation)91.8%1.06
1xBet
1.06		----+10.7ppWon
Liege W -10.571.9%1.39
1xBet
1.39		----+8.1ppWon
Liege W -9.574.8%1.32
1xBet
1.32		----+7.5ppWon
Liege W win92.9%1.07
WilliamHill
1.10
Betano
1.09
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.04		+7.0ppWon
Waregem W over 55.572.0%1.24
1xBet
1.24		----+1.4ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Liege Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Liege W: 63.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀71%
🏀🏀🏀11%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.6 pts a game · 71% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers6.9 pts a game · 11% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.0 points a game
53%
28%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.822.3
47.6%
46.8%44.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers14.42.3
16.0%
31.5%6.9
🏀 Free throws18.911.7
61.9%
71.8%11.7
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 14.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 24% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Waregem Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Waregem W: 63.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.0 points a game
53%
28%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.615.9
42.3%
46.8%31.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.27.2
31.0%
31.5%21.6
🏀 Free throws14.510.0
69.0%
71.8%10.0
They take 60.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Liege W
WLWWLLLLWW
Waregem W
LLLLLLWWWW
#6
League position
#10
-13.2
Net rating
-13.3
66.0
Offensive rating
72.0
79.2
Defensive rating
85.3
42.1%
Effective FG%
43.9%
45.4%
Opp. effective FG%
46.8%
21.2%
Turnover %
22.9%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.24
16.0%
3-point %
31.0%
57.7%
Assist %
61.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence66.0 · 72.0Defence79.2 · 85.3Shooting42.1% · 43.9%3-point %16.0% · 31.0%Ball care21.2% · 22.9%Free throws0.31 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Liege W   ■ Waregem W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Liege W wins
3
Waregem W wins
DateGameScore
07/02/26Waregem W v Liege W65-69
25/10/25Liege W v Waregem W70-45
01/03/25Liege W v Waregem W63-67
16/11/24Waregem W v Liege W83-68
13/01/24Waregem W v Liege W79-60
30/09/23Liege W v Waregem W75-60
21/01/23Liege W v Waregem W94-72
05/11/22Waregem W v Liege W83-89
02/03/22Liege W v Waregem W90-60
02/10/21Waregem W v Liege W65-72
Liege Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HDonza W77-59
24/10/26ABraine W69-96
16/10/26HLummen W89-54
11/10/26ASpirou Basket W68-50
03/10/26AMechelen W50-92
27/09/26APhantoms W53-58
12/04/26ANamur W39-96
10/04/26HNamur W50-66
04/04/26APhantoms W89-87 OT
28/03/26HSpirou Basket W53-43
Waregem Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26APhantoms W60-92
24/10/26HKortrijk W67-79
17/10/26ANamur W43-95
10/10/26HJeugd Gentson W83-86 OT
03/10/26HDonza W60-85
26/09/26ABraine W64-94
02/05/26HCharleroi W20-0
29/04/26HSpirou Basket W72-46
25/04/26ALummen W78-54
18/04/26ACharleroi W20-0

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Liege W
Top Division Women 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games624
Win %50%100%25%
Points / game67.783.060.0
Allowed / game68.256.574.0
Point differential-0.5+26.5-14.0
Avg total135.8139.5134.0
Over 137.550%50%50%
Win by 10+50%100%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Waregem W
Top Division Women 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL0%
HomeLLL0%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %0%0%0%
Points / game62.870.055.7
Allowed / game88.583.393.7
Point differential-25.7-13.3-38.0
Avg total151.3153.3149.3
Over 137.5100%100%100%
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %17%33%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Mechelen W440100%90.561.8+28.8
2 Braine W550100%88.673.2+15.4
3 Namur W54180%88.658.4+30.2
4 Phantoms W54180%77.664.2+13.4
5 Kortrijk W64267%82.064.0+18.0
6 Liege W63350%67.768.2-0.5
7 Jeugd Gentson W52340%74.682.0-7.4
8 Spirou Basket W41325%50.275.8-25.5
9 Donza W51420%69.674.8-5.2
10 Waregem W6060%62.888.5-25.7
11 Lummen W5050%49.889.0-39.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Liege W1915302286
Waregem W139181858
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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