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Loyola Marymount vs Chicago State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 15 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 21:00
Projected 80-66
Projected total 146.1
In play
Position#300
Record1-3
FormLLWLL
Points / game84.5
Allowed / game74.8
Loyola Marymount
USA
Vs
88%
■ LOYO 88%■ CHIC 12%
Pythia win probability
Chicago State
USA
Position#272
Record2-3
FormLWLWL
Points / game68.0
Allowed / game78.8
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Loyola Marymount faces Chicago State on 15 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup, with the model favouring Loyola Marymount at 88% versus 12% for Chicago State, reflecting the Cardinals' 1-3 season record, 84.5 points per game and 74.8 allowed, and their 1-1 home record with 98.5 points per game and 73.0 allowed, while the Crusaders sit 2-3 overall, 68.0 points per game and 78.8 allowed, and 2-2 on the road with 68.2 points per game and 78.0 allowed; Loyola Marymount's last five games include a 102-50 home win over Lincoln University (CA) and two recent losses to South Alabama and Troy, whereas Chicago State's recent results feature a 81-62 away win over California Baptist and losses to San Diego Toreros and South Carolina St; the projected score is 80-66, with a total of 146.1 points, and the Cardinals are set to cover the home line of -14.0 with a 48% chance, while the over on the 142.0 line has a 60% probability, and the game has a 3% overtime likelihood, ending with Loyola Marymount's 102-50 victory over Lincoln University (CA) as a concrete highlight.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Loyola Marymount win
88.1%fair 1.14
Best odds1.04
Implied92.7%
Edge-4.7pp
Chicago State win
11.9%fair 8.38
Best odds16.00
Implied7.3%
Edge+4.7pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 14 Nov 15:19 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Loyola MarymountUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pacific
#165
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A12/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
L
89-90
89
90
-1
A14/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
77-65
77
65
+12
A21/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H26/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
66-71
66
71
-5
H01/03
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
L
62-66
62
66
-4
H06/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#185
L
95-96
95
96
-1
H05/11
NCAA
Lincoln University (CA)
#446
W
102-50
102
50
+52
H07/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
L
69-74 OT
69
74
-5
A11/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#261
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A13/11
NCAA
1H
2H
31-25
28-40
56-54
33-36
38-32
39-33
24-39
43-27
32-29
34-42
31-42
31-24
53-50
42-46
54-19
48-31
37-29
28-36
34-39
38-40
148.0Avg total
75.8Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)84.574.8159.2+9.825%
Season at home (2)98.573.0171.5+25.550%
Season away (2)70.576.5147.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)75.872.2148.0+3.630%
Last 5 (5)80.073.0153.0+7.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)67.091.6158.6-24.60%
vs Similar (12)69.670.8140.3-1.242%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)78.570.4148.8+8.138%
This opponent (Chicago State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
70-51
70
51
+19
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
56-73
56
73
-17
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
61-80
61
80
-19
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
75-79
75
79
-4
A05/03
NCAA
Texas
#1
L
59-109
59
109
-50
A03/11
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#379
W
66-54
66
54
+12
A06/11
NCAA
South Carolina St
#180
L
67-82
67
82
-15
H10/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#322
W
81-62
81
62
+19
A12/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
L
67-87
67
87
-20
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
26-28
33-32
28-25
42-26
31-32
25-41
24-42
37-38
33-40
42-39
30-56
29-53
34-22
32-32
33-53
34-29
39-26
42-36
29-46
38-41
139.8Avg total
66.1Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)68.078.8146.8-10.840%
Season at home (1)67.082.0149.0-15.00%
Season away (4)68.278.0146.2-9.850%
Last 10 (10)66.173.7139.8-7.630%
Last 5 (5)68.078.8146.8-10.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)63.675.2138.8-11.617%
vs Similar (4)76.273.2149.5+3.075%
vs Weaker (2)75.558.0133.5+17.5100%
This opponent (Loyola Marymount) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 135
Over 135
75.6%
@ 1.47+12.2pp
Under 135
24.4%
@ 2.55-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 140 · main line
Over 140
64.7%
@ 1.95+14.7pp
Under 140
35.3%
@ 1.90-14.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 145
Over 145
52.5%
@ 2.70+18.2pp
Under 145
47.5%
@ 1.41-18.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.70
Under
Bet365
1.41

📊 3. Team Totals

Loyola Marymount total 74
Over 74
72.9%
Under 74
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loyola Marymount total 78 · main line
Over 78
57.6%
@ 1.85+7.6pp
Under 78
42.4%
@ 1.85-7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Loyola Marymount total 82
Over 82
40.9%
Under 82
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 58
Over 58
80.1%
Under 58
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 62 · main line
Over 62
66.8%
@ 1.87+16.8pp
Under 62
33.2%
@ 1.85-16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Chicago State total 66
Over 66
50.7%
Under 66
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Loyola Marymount -17
LOYO -17
37.1%
@ 1.92-18.3pp
CHIC +17
62.9%
@ 2.15+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
LOYO
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Be
1.80
SBO
1.78
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.71
CHIC
Pinnacle
2.15
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.79
Spread Loyola Marymount -14 · main line
LOYO -14
47.9%
@ 1.86-2.1pp
CHIC +14
52.1%
@ 2.55+2.1pp
Best 5 market prices
LOYO
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Bet365
1.47
CHIC
Bet365
2.55
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Spread Loyola Marymount -11
LOYO -11
59.0%
@ 1.27-13.8pp
CHIC +11
41.0%
@ 3.40+13.8pp
Best 5 market prices
LOYO
Bet365
1.27
CHIC
Bet365
3.40

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.2+3.21st half: -6.3-6.32nd half2nd half: +0.9+0.92nd half: -1.3-1.3
-8-4+0+4+81st half1st half: +3.2+3.21st half: -6.3-6.32nd half2nd half: +0.9+0.92nd half: -1.3-1.3
Loyola MarymountChicago State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Loyola MarymountLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pacific
#165
W
31-25
31
25
+6
A12/02
NCAA
Pepperdine
#347
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A14/02
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A21/02
NCAA
Washington State
#291
L
24-39
24
39
-15
H26/02
NCAA
Seattle
#108
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H01/03
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#301
L
31-42
31
42
-11
H06/03
NCAA
Queens Royals
#185
W
53-50
53
50
+3
H05/11
NCAA
Lincoln University (CA)
#446
W
54-19
54
19
+35
H07/11
NCAA
Troy
#325
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A11/11
NCAA
South Alabama
#261
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A13/11
NCAA
74.8Avg total
39.0Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67.5
Last 30 (30)34.035.069.0-1.040%47%
Last 30 at home (18)34.434.769.2-0.333%44%
Last 30 away (12)33.335.568.8-2.250%50%
Last 10 (10)39.035.874.8+3.270%60%
Last 5 (5)41.835.877.6+6.060%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)27.439.066.4-11.60%40%
vs Similar (12)30.234.564.8-4.225%33%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)40.034.074.0+6.069%62%
This opponent (Chicago State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
28-25
28
25
+3
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
24-42
24
42
-18
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A05/03
NCAA
Texas
#1
L
30-56
30
56
-26
A03/11
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#379
W
34-22
34
22
+12
A06/11
NCAA
South Carolina St
#180
L
33-53
33
53
-20
H10/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#322
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A12/11
NCAA
San Diego Toreros
#129
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A14/11
NCAA
67.7Avg total
30.7Scored
37.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 67.5
Last 30 (30)30.935.866.7-4.840%43%
Last 30 at home (11)34.032.766.7+1.364%36%
Last 30 away (19)29.237.566.7-8.426%47%
Last 10 (10)30.737.067.7-6.330%40%
Last 5 (5)33.040.673.6-7.640%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)29.436.866.2-7.429%42%
vs Similar (4)35.533.569.0+2.075%50%
vs Weaker (2)40.528.068.5+12.5100%50%
This opponent (Loyola Marymount) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winner
LOYO win
no forecast
@ 1.13
CHIC win
no forecast
@ 6.90
1st half Spread Loyola Marymount -9 · main line
LOYO -9
no forecast
@ 1.85
CHIC +9
no forecast
@ 1.96
1st half Over/Under 67.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
Loyola Marymount 1st half total 38 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
Chicago State 1st half total 27.5 · main line
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half: LOYO + total 67.5
LOYO & over
no forecast
@ 2.15
LOYO & under
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half: Draw + total 67.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 36.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 34.00
1st half: CHIC + total 67.5
CHIC & over
no forecast
@ 14.00
CHIC & under
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Over/Under 66
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Loyola Marymount -10
LOYO -10
no forecast
@ 1.93
CHIC +10
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread Loyola Marymount -8
LOYO -8
no forecast
@ 1.83
CHIC +8
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Over/Under 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under
no forecast
@ 1.62
1st half Over/Under 64.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Loyola Marymount -7
LOYO -7
no forecast
@ 1.85
CHIC +7
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.00
Under
no forecast
@ 1.44
1st half 3-way (draw possible)
LOYO
no forecast
@ 1.14
Draw
no forecast
@ 29.00
CHIC
no forecast
@ 7.10

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
LOYO win + total 140.5
🔒 Pro
CHIC win + total 140.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: LOYO leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CHIC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds PRO1.20
Edge PRO
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Chicago State over 60.571.5%1.84
BetVictor
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80		+20.8pp
Chicago State over 6170.4%1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85		----+20.4pp
Chicago State +21.576.2%1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52		---+15.5pp
Over 13771.5%1.62
Bet365
1.62		----+14.5pp
Loyola Marymount under 86.575.1%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+3.5pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%■■%
🔒 65 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Loyola Marymount wins
0
Chicago State wins
No previous meetings.
Loyola Marymountlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/11/26ASouth Alabama72-79
11/11/26ATroy69-74 OT
07/11/26HLincoln University (CA)102-50
05/11/26HQueens Royals95-96
06/03/26HSan Diego Toreros62-66
01/03/26HSeattle66-71
26/02/26HWashington State67-66
21/02/26ASan Diego Toreros77-65
14/02/26APepperdine89-90
12/02/26APacific59-65
Chicago Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ASan Diego Toreros67-87
12/11/26ACalifornia Baptist81-62
10/11/26HSouth Carolina St67-82
06/11/26AIncarnate Word66-54
03/11/26ATexas59-109
05/03/26ALIU Sharks75-79
28/02/26AWagner61-80
27/02/26ALIU Sharks56-73
21/02/26HCentral Connecticut State70-51
20/02/26HFairleigh Dickinson59-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Loyola Marymount
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLL25%
HomeLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %25%50%0%
Points / game84.598.570.5
Allowed / game74.873.076.5
Point differential+9.8+25.5-6.0
Avg total159.2171.5147.0
Over 140100%100%100%
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %25%0%50%
Chicago State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL40%
HomeL0%
AwayLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games514
Win %40%0%50%
Points / game68.067.068.2
Allowed / game78.882.078.0
Point differential-10.8-15.0-9.8
Avg total146.8149.0146.2
Over 14080%100%75%
Win by 10+40%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

West Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oregon State440100%93.269.5+23.8
2 Santa Clara550100%86.675.0+11.6
3 St. Marys (CA)43175%93.576.5+17.0
4 San Diego Toreros43175%84.275.5+8.8
5 San Francisco43175%71.568.5+3.0
6 Pacific32167%74.753.7+21.0
7 Pepperdine42250%96.070.0+26.0
8 Portland52340%87.093.6-6.6
9 Gonzaga31233%87.075.7+11.3
10 Seattle31233%70.373.3-3.0
11 Loyola Marymount41325%84.574.8+9.8
12 Washington State41325%81.579.5+2.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Central Connecticut State53260%66.876.6-9.8
2 Le Moyne42250%76.072.5+3.5
3 Chicago State52340%68.078.8-10.8
4 Fairleigh Dickinson52340%68.285.0-16.8
5 New Haven Chargers31233%58.370.0-11.7
6 Wagner41325%66.273.2-7.0
7 Mercyhurst Lakers41325%61.270.8-9.5
8 Stonehill41325%59.875.5-15.8
9 LIU Sharks5050%60.875.0-14.2
10 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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