PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
The NCAA matchup on 8 November 2026 pits the Maine Black Bears against Manhattan, with Maine the clear favourite as the Pythia model rates them 87% to win, reflecting their 1-1 record and 65.0 points per game against 77.5 allowed, a better offensive-defensive balance than Manhattan's 0-2 record, 62.5 points per game and 78.5 allowed. Maine's season to date shows a 1-1 record, 65.0 points scored and 77.5 allowed, while Manhattan's 0-2 record comes from 62.5 points scored and 78.5 allowed. Maine's last five games include one win and four losses, with a recent 74-72 win over Sacred Heart and a 56-83 loss to Providence; Manhattan's last five are all losses, including a 68-72 defeat to Albany Great Danes, a 57-85 loss to Kentucky and a 60-71 loss to Fairfield. The teams have not met before. Pythia projects a 78-65 score for Maine, a total of 143.4 points, and a 3% chance of overtime; the home team's line is 78-65 and the probability of covering is 87%. The game ends with Maine's 78 points, Manhattan's 65.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 65.0 | 77.5 | 142.5 | -12.5 | 50% |
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away (2) | 65.0 | 77.5 | 142.5 | -12.5 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 62.9 | 69.1 | 132.0 | -6.2 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.2 | 71.2 | 133.4 | -9.0 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 62.6 | 70.7 | 133.3 | -8.1 | 26% |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 60.6 | 65.6 | 126.2 | -5.0 | 30% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (2) | 62.5 | 78.5 | 141.0 | -16.0 | 0% |
| Season at home (1) | 68.0 | 72.0 | 140.0 | -4.0 | 0% |
| Season away (1) | 57.0 | 85.0 | 142.0 | -28.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 68.5 | 73.8 | 142.3 | -5.3 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 63.0 | 74.4 | 137.4 | -11.4 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 68.6 | 81.0 | 149.6 | -12.4 | 11% |
| vs Similar ◀ (8) | 74.8 | 72.0 | 146.8 | +2.8 | 62% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 83.0 | 78.0 | 161.0 | +5.0 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 28.4 | 33.2 | 61.6 | -4.8 | 27% | - |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 28.4 | 33.0 | 61.4 | -4.6 | 33% | - |
| Last 30 away (18) | 28.3 | 33.3 | 61.7 | -5.0 | 22% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 28.6 | 31.8 | 60.4 | -3.2 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 26.6 | 32.4 | 59.0 | -5.8 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 27.4 | 34.0 | 61.4 | -6.6 | 16% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (10) | 27.7 | 31.8 | 59.5 | -4.1 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 32.3 | 37.0 | 69.4 | -4.7 | 27% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 35.9 | 37.5 | 73.5 | -1.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 28.7 | 36.5 | 65.3 | -7.8 | 13% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 31.0 | 36.9 | 67.9 | -5.9 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 26.2 | 37.2 | 63.4 | -11.0 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (19) | 30.1 | 38.6 | 68.7 | -8.5 | 11% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (8) | 34.9 | 33.1 | 68.0 | +1.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (3) | 39.7 | 37.3 | 77.0 | +2.3 | 67% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | A | Sacred Heart | 74-72 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Providence | 56-83 |
| 07/03/26 | A | NJIT | 58-60 |
| 03/03/26 | H | UMass Lowell | 56-67 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Binghamton | 67-74 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Albany Great Danes | 70-59 |
| 21/02/26 | A | New Hampshire Wildcats | 61-58 |
| 14/02/26 | H | NJIT | 58-67 |
| 12/02/26 | H | UMBC Retrievers | 62-78 |
| 07/02/26 | A | Bryant University | 67-73 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/26 | H | Albany Great Danes | 68-72 |
| 04/11/26 | A | Kentucky | 57-85 |
| 06/03/26 | A | Fairfield | 60-71 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Iona | 65-69 |
| 28/02/26 | A | St. Peters | 65-75 |
| 21/02/26 | H | Marist | 70-84 |
| 15/02/26 | A | Canisius | 69-65 |
| 13/02/26 | A | Niagara | 76-69 |
| 07/02/26 | H | Sacred Heart | 80-68 |
| 06/02/26 | H | St. Peters | 75-80 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LW | 50% |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | - | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | - | 50% |
| Points / game | 65.0 | - | 65.0 |
| Allowed / game | 77.5 | - | 77.5 |
| Point differential | -12.5 | - | -12.5 |
| Avg total | 142.5 | - | 142.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | - | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | - | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LL | 0% |
| Home | L | 0% |
| Away | L | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 62.5 | 68.0 | 57.0 |
| Allowed / game | 78.5 | 72.0 | 85.0 |
| Point differential | -16.0 | -4.0 | -28.0 |
| Avg total | 141.0 | 140.0 | 142.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 0% (1) | 0% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UMass Lowell | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 59.0 | +37.0 |
| 2 |  Vermont | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 67.0 | 61.5 | +5.5 |
| 3 |  Bryant University | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 68.0 | 70.5 | -2.5 |
| 4 |  Binghamton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 59.0 | 70.5 | -11.5 |
| 5 | Maine Black Bears | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 65.0 | 77.5 | -12.5 |
| 6 |  UMBC Retrievers | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 67.0 | 85.0 | -18.0 |
| 7 |  NJIT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 53.5 | 80.5 | -27.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Iona | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 64.3 | 69.3 | -5.0 |
| 2 |  Sacred Heart | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 91.5 | 59.0 | +32.5 |
| 3 |  Merrimack Warriors | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 62.0 | 60.0 | +2.0 |
| 4 |  Marist | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 75.0 | 74.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 |  Quinnipiac | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 62.5 | 76.0 | -13.5 |
| 6 |  Mount St. Mary's | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 60.0 | 77.0 | -17.0 |
| 7 |  Siena | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 75.0 | 80.0 | -5.0 |
| 8 |  Fairfield | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 67.0 | 79.0 | -12.0 |
| 9 |  St. Peters | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 48.5 | 62.0 | -13.5 |
| 10 | Manhattan | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 62.5 | 78.5 | -16.0 |
| 11 |  Rider | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 56.0 | 80.5 | -24.5 |
| 12 |  Niagara | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 56.5 | 82.0 | -25.5 |
| 13 |  Canisius | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 53.0 | 92.5 | -39.5 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Black Bears | 29 | 33 | 62 |
| Manhattan | 27 | 41 | 68 |
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