Marist hosts Dartmouth on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Marist as the favourite and predicting a decisive tilt in favour of the home side. Marist's recent slate shows a 3-2 run in their last five outings, highlighted by a 77-75 win over Quinnipiac and a 58-57 loss to Merrimack, while Dartmouth has struggled, winning only one of five games, including a 71-80 defeat to Penn. The two teams have faced each other three times, Marist winning all encounters, most recently 75-56 on 9 November 2025. Pythia assigns a 67% chance to Marist and 33% to Dartmouth, projecting a 73-68 finish for the contest. The home line of -6.5 carries a 45% probability that Marist will cover, and the over/under set at 140.0 carries a 52% chance of exceeding the line, with a 5% likelihood of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Marist winLost
66.8%fair 1.50
Best odds1.37
Implied70.1%
Edge-3.3pp
Dartmouth winWon
33.2%fair 3.01
Best odds3.30
Implied29.9%
Edge+3.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Marist) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 135Actual: Under 135
Over 135
63.8%
@ 1.72+8.6pp
Under 135
36.2%
@ 2.15-8.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.72
Marathon Be
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Over/Under 140 · main lineActual: Under 140
Over 140
51.6%
@ 2.15+1.6pp
Under 140
48.4%
@ 1.90-1.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.66
Bet365
1.62
Over/Under 145Actual: Under 145
Over 145
39.3%
@ 3.10+9.3pp
Under 145
60.7%
@ 1.33-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.10
Under
Bet365
1.33
📊 3. Team Totals
Marist total 68Actual: Marist under 68
Over 68
69.2%
Under 68
30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marist total 72 · main lineActual: Marist under 72
Over 72
53.6%
@ 1.87+3.9pp
Under 72
46.4%
@ 1.85-3.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Marist total 76Actual: Marist under 76
Over 76
37.5%
Under 76
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dartmouth total 61.5Actual: Dartmouth over 61.5
Over 61.5
73.4%
@ 1.42+3.8pp
Under 61.5
26.6%
@ 3.75-3.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.23
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
2.50
Dartmouth total 65.5 · main lineActual: Dartmouth over 65.5
Over 65.5
59.2%
@ 1.90+9.2pp
Under 65.5
40.8%
@ 1.85-9.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.82
Dartmouth total 69.5Actual: Dartmouth under 69.5
Over 69.5
43.8%
@ 2.62+9.3pp
Under 69.5
56.2%
@ 1.38-9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Under
Betano
1.38
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Marist -9.5Actual: Dartmouth +9.5
MARI -9.5
34.3%
@ 2.40-5.0pp
DART +9.5
65.7%
@ 1.53+5.0pp
Best 5 market prices
MARI
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
DART
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Spread Marist -6.5 · main lineActual: Dartmouth +6.5
MARI -6.5
45.0%
@ 1.95-4.4pp
DART +6.5
55.0%
@ 1.90+4.4pp
Best 5 market prices
MARI
Pinnacle
1.95
Bet365
1.94
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
DART
Pinnacle
1.90
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.82
Spread Marist -3.5Actual: Dartmouth +3.5
MARI -3.5
56.6%
@ 1.55-3.3pp
DART +3.5
43.4%
@ 2.30+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
MARI
Bet365
1.55
Betano
1.53
DART
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
MaristDartmouth
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Dartmouth over 62.5
70.0%
1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Dartmouth over 60.5
76.5%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
Over 131.5
71.2%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Lost
Dartmouth +14.5
80.1%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Won
Over 130.5
73.2%
1.37
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Dartmouth +11.5
72.1%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
75.2%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Won
Dartmouth +12.5
74.9%
1.33
Betano
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Dartmouth +13.5
77.6%
1.27
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Won
Over 131
72.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Push
Dartmouth +13
77.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Dartmouth +16.5
84.5%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Dartmouth +11
71.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Dartmouth +14
79.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Over 132
70.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
Dartmouth +21.5
92.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Dartmouth +12
74.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Dartmouth over 58.5
82.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Marist under 90.5
95.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Over 130
74.7%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.1%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Dartmouth over 61.5
73.4%
1.32
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Marist over 67.5
70.3%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 56.5
86.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Marist under 88.5
93.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Marist +13.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Over 127.5
79.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Marist under 86.5
91.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Marist under 89.5
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Marist over 62.5
84.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
Marist under 80.5
77.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Under 167.5
94.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 117.5
92.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Marist over 65.5
76.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
Marist under 84.5
87.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Marist over 64.5
79.6%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Lost
Marist under 87.5
92.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Marist over 63.5
82.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
Marist under 78.5
71.1%
1.33
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 166.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Dartmouth under 84.5
94.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.4pp
Won
Marist over 66.5
73.6%
1.27
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Dartmouth over 55.5
88.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Dartmouth over 57.5
84.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Under 165.5
92.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Marist +8.5
87.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Over 122.5
86.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Dartmouth over 59.5
79.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+0.6pp
Won
Marist under 85.5
89.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Under 161.5
89.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Under 164.5
92.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Over 119.5
90.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.1pp
Won
Marist under 82.5
82.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Over 120.5
89.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Dartmouth under 82.5
91.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 160.5
88.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Marist under 83.5
85.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Marist +2.5
72.9%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Lost
Over 121.5
88.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Won
Under 151.5
74.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.8pp
Won
Under 162.5
90.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Marist under 81.5
80.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Under 156.5
82.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Over 124.5
83.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Marist +3.5
75.5%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Lost
Under 159.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Dartmouth under 80.5
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Under 150.5
72.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
Under 155.5
81.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Marist under 79.5
74.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Over 125.5
82.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Over 126.5
80.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Under 154.5
79.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-4.6pp
Won
Dartmouth under 78.5
84.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Under 149.5
70.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Under 157.5
84.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
Dartmouth under 76.5
79.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-7.1pp
Won
Dartmouth under 74.5
73.8%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Under 152.5
76.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-8.7pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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