McNeese State will host UAB on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names McNeese State the clear favourite, giving it a 78% chance to win because the model rates the home side 78% versus UAB's 22%. McNeese State has won 4 of its last 5 games, including a 84-80 home victory over UTRGV on 10 March 2026 and a 76-59 away win over Stephen F. Austin on 11 March 2026, while UAB has won 3 of its last 5, with a 90-83 home win over East Carolina on 8 March 2026 and a 80-74 away win over Charlotte on 4 March 2026. Their only prior meeting ended with McNeese State beating UAB 81-60 on 28 November 2023. Pythia projects a 78-69 score, with McNeese State covering the 3.5-point line 84% of the time, and an over probability of 39% on the 151.5-point total; the game has a 4% chance of going to overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 75.9 | 65.4 | 141.3 | +10.5 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 73.8 | 69.0 | 142.8 | +4.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 71.0 | 112.0 | 183.0 | -41.0 | 0% |
| vs Similar (4) | 67.5 | 67.0 | 134.5 | +0.5 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (25) | 78.2 | 65.4 | 143.6 | +12.8 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 73.3 | 71.3 | 144.6 | +2.0 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.8 | 73.8 | 150.6 | +3.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 82.8 | 84.8 | 167.6 | -2.0 | 60% |
| vs Similar (9) | 72.7 | 73.2 | 145.9 | -0.6 | 44% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 80.7 | 70.6 | 151.2 | +10.1 | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.0 | 31.2 | 68.3 | +5.8 | 67% | 20% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 38.1 | 27.6 | 65.7 | +10.4 | 79% | 21% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 36.1 | 34.4 | 70.5 | +1.8 | 56% | 19% |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.0 | 28.2 | 65.2 | +8.8 | 90% | 0% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.4 | 29.2 | 66.6 | +8.2 | 80% | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (1) | 29.0 | 60.0 | 89.0 | -31.0 | 0% | 100% |
| vs Similar (4) | 32.5 | 33.0 | 65.5 | -0.5 | 25% | 0% |
| vs Weaker (25) | 38.1 | 29.8 | 67.9 | +8.3 | 76% | 20% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.8 | 34.6 | 71.4 | +2.2 | 60% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 37.2 | 35.3 | 72.4 | +1.9 | 56% | 33% |
| Last 30 away (12) | 36.2 | 33.6 | 69.8 | +2.6 | 67% | 17% |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.4 | 33.6 | 68.0 | +0.8 | 50% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.2 | 32.2 | 68.4 | +4.0 | 60% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 34.2 | 39.2 | 73.4 | -5.0 | 0% | 40% |
| vs Similar (9) | 35.6 | 32.0 | 67.6 | +3.6 | 78% | 0% |
| vs Weaker (16) | 38.2 | 34.6 | 72.9 | +3.6 | 69% | 38% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McNeese State +23.5 | 99.4% | 9.50 | 9.50 | - | - | - | - | +89.6pp | Won |
| McNeese State +18.5 | 98.5% | 6.75 | 6.75 | - | - | - | - | +84.6pp | Won |
| UAB +21.5 | 86.9% | 13.00 | 13.00 | - | - | - | - | +79.7pp | Won |
| McNeese State +13.5 | 96.6% | 4.20 | 4.20 | - | - | - | - | +74.4pp | Won |
| McNeese State +12 | 96.0% | 3.70 | 3.70 | - | - | - | - | +70.8pp | Won |
| McNeese State +12.5 | 96.0% | 3.52 | 3.75 | 3.30 | - | - | - | +69.6pp | Won |
| McNeese State +11 | 95.3% | 3.25 | 3.25 | - | - | - | - | +66.7pp | Won |
| McNeese State +11.5 | 95.3% | 3.22 | 3.30 | 3.15 | - | - | - | +66.7pp | Won |
| UAB +16.5 | 75.7% | 9.50 | 9.50 | - | - | - | - | +65.9pp | Lost |
| McNeese State +10.5 | 94.5% | 2.98 | 3.05 | 2.92 | - | - | - | +63.5pp | Won |
| McNeese State +10 | 94.5% | 3.00 | 3.00 | - | - | - | - | +63.5pp | Won |
| McNeese State +9.5 | 93.6% | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.70 | - | - | - | +60.0pp | Won |
| McNeese State +9 | 93.6% | 2.72 | 2.72 | - | - | - | - | +59.6pp | Won |
| McNeese State +8.5 | 92.5% | 2.55 | 2.60 | 2.50 | - | - | - | +56.3pp | Won |
| McNeese State +8 | 92.5% | 2.55 | 2.55 | - | - | - | - | +55.9pp | Won |
| McNeese State +7.5 | 91.3% | 2.36 | 2.40 | 2.32 | - | - | - | +52.1pp | Won |
| McNeese State +7 | 91.2% | 2.30 | 2.30 | - | - | - | - | +50.9pp | Won |
| McNeese State +6 | 89.7% | 2.20 | 2.27 | 2.12 | - | - | - | +47.9pp | Won |
| McNeese State +6.5 | 89.9% | 2.19 | 2.20 | 2.18 | - | - | - | +47.7pp | Won |
| McNeese State +5.5 | 88.3% | 2.10 | 2.18 | 2.07 | 2.05 | - | - | +44.8pp | Won |
| McNeese State +5 | 88.1% | 1.99 | 2.08 | 1.90 | - | - | - | +42.4pp | Won |
| McNeese State +4.5 | 86.5% | 1.97 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.99 | 1.95 | 1.93 | +38.7pp | Won |
| McNeese State +4 | 86.2% | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | - | - | +36.0pp | Won |
| McNeese State +3.5 | 84.5% | 1.82 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.82 | 1.80 | 1.80 | +31.7pp | Won |
| UAB under 75.5 | 73.0% | 2.18 | 2.18 | - | - | - | - | +31.4pp | Lost |
| UAB under 78 | 81.0% | 1.83 | 1.83 | - | - | - | - | +30.4pp | Push |
| McNeese State +3 | 84.2% | 1.75 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 1.73 | - | - | +29.2pp | Won |
| UAB under 77.5 | 78.8% | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | +29.1pp | Lost |
| UAB under 76.5 | 76.0% | 1.92 | 2.05 | 1.97 | 1.85 | 1.80 | - | +28.8pp | Lost |
| UAB under 78.5 | 81.5% | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.77 | - | - | - | +28.8pp | Won |
| UAB under 79.5 | 83.9% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +28.0pp | Won |
| UAB under 80.5 | 86.0% | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.53 | - | - | - | +26.0pp | Won |
| McNeese State +2.5 | 82.6% | 1.71 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 1.67 | +25.7pp | Won |
| UAB under 81.5 | 88.0% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +25.3pp | Won |
| UAB under 82.5 | 89.7% | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | - | - | +23.8pp | Won |
| McNeese State +2 | 82.1% | 1.62 | 1.64 | 1.61 | - | - | - | +23.2pp | Won |
| McNeese State +1.5 | 79.8% | 1.62 | 1.65 | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | +22.2pp | Won |
| UAB under 83.5 | 91.2% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +20.1pp | Won |
| McNeese State +1 | 79.4% | 1.58 | 1.58 | - | - | - | - | +20.1pp | Won |
| McNeese State (regulation) | 75.6% | 1.58 | 1.59 | 1.57 | - | - | - | +18.8pp | Won |
| McNeese State win | 77.9% | 1.54 | 1.58 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.54 | +16.0pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 72.5 | 70.9% | 1.67 | 1.67 | - | - | - | - | +15.6pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 70.5 | 77.3% | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | - | +15.0pp | Won |
| McNeese State -1 | 77.4% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +14.9pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 69.5 | 80.2% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 71.5 | 74.2% | 1.52 | 1.55 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +13.8pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 68.5 | 82.8% | 1.31 | 1.32 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +12.8pp | Won |
| McNeese State -1.5 | 75.7% | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | - | - | - | +12.0pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 66.5 | 87.4% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +11.2pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 67.5 | 85.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +10.5pp | Won |
| McNeese State over 64.5 | 91.0% | 1.14 | 1.14 | - | - | - | - | +9.6pp | Won |
| McNeese State -2 | 74.7% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Won |
| Under 156.5 | 71.6% | 1.48 | 1.50 | 1.47 | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Lost |
| McNeese State over 65.5 | 89.3% | 1.15 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +8.8pp | Won |
| Under 157.5 | 73.6% | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +8.7pp | Lost |
| Under 158.5 | 75.5% | 1.38 | 1.40 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Lost |
| Under 157 | 73.0% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Lost |
| Under 156 | 70.9% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +8.4pp | Lost |
| Under 158 | 75.0% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +8.0pp | Lost |
| McNeese State over 62.5 | 93.8% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +7.7pp | Won |
| Under 159 | 76.9% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +7.4pp | Lost |
| McNeese State over 63.5 | 92.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Won |
| Under 159.5 | 77.3% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +6.9pp | Lost |
| Under 161.5 | 80.8% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +6.0pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 96.1% | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.02 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | - |
| McNeese State -2.5 | 72.0% | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +5.5pp | Won |
| Under 176.5 | 95.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +4.3pp | Lost |
| Under 171.5 | 92.7% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Lost |
| Under 166.5 | 87.8% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | +4.0pp | Lost |
| McNeese State -3 | 71.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Won |
| Over 126.5 | 89.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -3.0pp | Won |
| Over 131.5 | 83.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -6.2pp | Won |
| UAB over 58.5 | 85.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.2pp | Won |
| Over 136.5 | 74.3% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -10.7pp | Won |
| McNeese State under 83.5 | 70.8% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | - | -11.0pp | Lost |
| UAB over 60.5 | 80.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -11.8pp | Won |
| UAB over 62.5 | 74.5% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -16.0pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 | A | Vanderbilt | 68-78 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Stephen F. Austin | 76-59 |
| 11/03/26 | H | UTRGV | 84-80 OT |
| 03/03/26 | A | Nicholls State | 75-65 |
| 28/02/26 | A | New Orleans | 66-63 |
| 24/02/26 | H | UTRGV | 75-68 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Texas A&M-CC | 70-54 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Northwestern St. | 75-64 |
| 14/02/26 | A | East Texas A&M | 97-54 |
| 10/02/26 | H | Houston Christian | 73-69 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 151.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 151.5 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicholls State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 110.0 | 56.0 | +54.0 |
| 2 | Illinois (Chi.) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 47.0 | +49.0 |
| 3 | Hofstra | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 51.0 | +46.0 |
| 4 | Middle Tenn. St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 117.0 | 73.0 | +44.0 |
| 5 | South Carolina St | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 55.0 | +39.0 |
| 6 | IU Indy | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 113.0 | 76.0 | +37.0 |
| 7 | Mercer | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 90.0 | 53.0 | +37.0 |
| 8 | Princeton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 46.0 | +32.0 |
| 9 | Murray State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 94.0 | 64.0 | +30.0 |
| 10 | George Mason | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 82.0 | 54.0 | +28.0 |
| 11 | San Jose State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 74.0 | +21.0 |
| 12 | High Point | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 72.0 | 57.0 | +15.0 |
| 13 | Merrimack Warriors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 63.0 | 49.0 | +14.0 |
| 14 | Northern Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 76.0 | +8.0 |
| 15 | Queens Royals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 103.0 | 98.0 | +5.0 |
| 16 | Grambling St. | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 89.0 | 87.0 | +2.0 |
| 17 | Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 74.0 | 72.0 | +2.0 |
| 18 | Northern Illinois | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 87.0 | 89.0 | -2.0 |
| 19 | Villanova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 72.0 | 74.0 | -2.0 |
| 20 | Winthrop | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 98.0 | 103.0 | -5.0 |
| 21 | UTEP | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 84.0 | -8.0 |
| 22 | Appalachian State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 49.0 | 63.0 | -14.0 |
| 23 | Liberty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 57.0 | 72.0 | -15.0 |
| 24 | UTSA Roadrunners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 74.0 | 95.0 | -21.0 |
| 25 | UMBC Retrievers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 54.0 | 82.0 | -28.0 |
| 26 | Tennessee State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 64.0 | 94.0 | -30.0 |
| 27 | Carnegie Mellon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 46.0 | 78.0 | -32.0 |
| 28 | Miami (OH) - Middletown | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 113.0 | -37.0 |
| 29 | Reinhardt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 53.0 | 90.0 | -37.0 |
| 30 | Morris College | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 55.0 | 94.0 | -39.0 |
| 31 | Fisk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 73.0 | 117.0 | -44.0 |
| 32 | St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 51.0 | 97.0 | -46.0 |
| 33 | St. Francis (ILL) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 47.0 | 96.0 | -49.0 |
| 34 | North American Stallions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 56.0 | 110.0 | -54.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| McNeese State | 44 | 55 | 99 |
| UAB | 35 | 43 | 78 |
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