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Missouri vs Cleveland State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Projected 83-71
Projected total 154.1
Final 111-50
56-18 55-32
Position#13
Record-
FormWLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Missouri 🏆
USA
Vs
86%
14%
■ MISS 86%■ CLEV 14%
Pythia win probability
Cleveland State
USA
Position#430
Record-
FormLLLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Missouri v Cleveland State
03 Nov 2026
MISS111
CLEV50
28 Nov 2025
MISS86
CLEV59
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Missouri host Cleveland State in the NCAA. Pythia makes Missouri the favourite at 86% and projects 83-71, about 154 points in all (over 159.5: 37%). On the market's main spread (Missouri -23.5) Pythia gives Missouri 17% to cover. Overtime chance: 3%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri winWon
86.4%fair 1.16
Best odds1.01
Implied94.7%
Edge-8.3pp
Cleveland State winLost
13.6%fair 7.38
Best odds34.00
Implied5.3%
Edge+8.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MissouriUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A12/02
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
68-85
68
85
-17
H15/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
81-80
81
80
+1
H19/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
86-94
86
94
-8
A21/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
W
73-69
73
69
+4
H25/02
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
88-64
88
64
+24
A28/02
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
64-80
64
80
-16
A04/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
84-88 OT
84
88
-4
H07/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
72-78
72
78
-6
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
66-80
66
80
-14
A21/03
NCAA
1H
2H
41-46
45-39
31-33
37-52
36-30
45-50
41-47
45-47
26-29
47-40
54-23
34-41
26-35
38-45
36-39
38-35
29-38
43-40
26-27
40-53
157.1Avg total
76.8Scored
80.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)76.880.3157.1-3.540%
Last 5 (5)74.878.0152.8-3.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)72.282.2154.4-10.033%
vs Similar (12)75.777.0152.7-1.350%
vs Weaker (9)86.067.6153.6+18.489%
Cleveland StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oakland
#212
W
91-78
91
78
+13
H05/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
L
74-82
74
82
-8
A07/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
68-85
68
85
-17
H13/02
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
90-102
90
102
-12
H15/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
L
82-106
82
106
-24
A18/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
86-92
86
92
-6
H22/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
70-81
70
81
-11
H26/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
64-83
64
83
-19
A28/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
101-93
101
93
+8
H03/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
61-90
61
90
-29
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
32-42
59-36
24-39
50-43
33-45
35-40
36-51
54-51
38-52
44-54
40-43
46-49
24-42
46-39
39-39
25-44
45-36
56-57
32-37
29-53
167.9Avg total
78.7Scored
89.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.789.2167.9-10.520%
Last 5 (5)76.487.8164.2-11.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)77.287.8165.0-10.626%
vs Similar (5)87.086.0173.0+1.060%
vs Weaker (1)96.052.0148.0+44.0100%
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
48.6%
@ 1.47-14.9pp
Under 154.5
51.4%
@ 2.60+14.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 159.5 · main lineActual: Over 159.5
Over 159.5
36.7%
@ 1.89-13.9pp
Under 159.5
63.3%
@ 1.94+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Under
Marathon Be
1.94
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Under 164.5
Over 164.5
25.9%
@ 2.55-11.6pp
Under 164.5
74.1%
@ 1.50+11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

Missouri total 89Actual: Missouri over 89
Over 89
27.7%
Under 89
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Missouri total 93 · main lineActual: Missouri over 93
Over 93
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 93
no forecast
@ 1.87
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Missouri total 96.5Actual: Missouri over 96.5
Over 96.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 96.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.42
Under
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
Cleveland State total 63Actual: Cleveland State under 63
Over 63
78.4%
Under 63
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State total 67 · main lineActual: Cleveland State under 67
Over 67
64.6%
@ 1.86+14.7pp
Under 67
35.4%
@ 1.85-14.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Cleveland State total 71Actual: Cleveland State under 71
Over 71
48.5%
Under 71
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Missouri -26.5Actual: Missouri -26.5
MISS -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
CLEV +26.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
CLEV
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Missouri -23.5 · main lineActual: Missouri -23.5
MISS -23.5
16.7%
@ 1.83-39.9pp
CLEV +23.5
83.3%
@ 2.25+39.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MISS
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
CLEV
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.12
1xBet
1.83
Spread Missouri -20.5Actual: Missouri -20.5
MISS -20.5
24.0%
@ 1.40-42.9pp
CLEV +20.5
76.0%
@ 2.90+42.9pp
Best 5 market prices
MISS
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.36
CLEV
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.67

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: -8.3-8.32nd half2nd half: -3.0-3.02nd half: -2.2-2.2
-10-5+0+5+101st half1st half: -0.1-0.11st half: -8.3-8.32nd half2nd half: -3.0-3.02nd half: -2.2-2.2
MissouriCleveland State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
MissouriLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas A&M
#82
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A12/02
NCAA
Texas
#135
L
31-33
31
33
-2
H15/02
NCAA
Vanderbilt
#37
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H19/02
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A21/02
NCAA
Tennessee
#67
L
26-29
26
29
-3
H25/02
NCAA
Mississippi St.
#257
W
54-23
54
23
+31
A28/02
NCAA
Oklahoma
#154
L
26-35
26
35
-9
A04/03
NCAA
Arkansas
#36
L
36-39
36
39
-3
H07/03
NCAA
Kentucky
#107
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H12/03
NCAA
Miami (FL)
#38
L
26-27
26
27
-1
A21/03
NCAA
69.3Avg total
34.6Scored
34.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)36.734.170.8+2.647%27%
Last 30 at home (17)39.132.972.1+6.259%29%
Last 30 away (13)33.635.669.2-2.031%23%
Last 10 (10)34.634.769.3-0.120%30%
Last 5 (5)34.232.466.6+1.820%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)31.635.967.4-4.311%22%
vs Similar (12)33.634.968.5-1.333%8%
vs Weaker (9)46.131.277.3+14.9100%56%
Cleveland StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oakland
#212
L
32-42
32
42
-10
H05/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
L
24-39
24
39
-15
A07/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
L
33-45
33
45
-12
H13/02
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
36-51
36
51
-15
H15/02
NCAA
Youngstown State
#227
L
38-52
38
52
-14
A18/02
NCAA
IPFW
#181
L
40-43
40
43
-3
H22/02
NCAA
Northern Kentucky
#130
L
24-42
24
42
-18
H26/02
NCAA
Robert Morris
#74
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A28/02
NCAA
IU Indy
#360
W
45-36
45
36
+9
H03/03
NCAA
Wright State
#94
L
32-37
32
37
-5
A05/03
NCAA
76.9Avg total
34.3Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 76.5
Last 30 (30)36.139.275.2-3.137%50%
Last 30 at home (15)36.937.974.7-1.040%53%
Last 30 away (15)35.340.575.7-5.233%47%
Last 10 (10)34.342.676.9-8.310%60%
Last 5 (5)36.039.475.4-3.420%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)34.340.975.2-6.722%48%
vs Similar (5)39.237.476.6+1.880%60%
vs Weaker (1)45.022.067.0+23.0100%0%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Missouri win
MISS win
no forecast
@ 1.05
CLEV win
no forecast
@ 13.00
1st half Spread Missouri -15 · main lineActual: Missouri -15
MISS -15
no forecast
@ 1.88
CLEV +15
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 76.5 · main lineActual: Under 76.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.05
Under
no forecast
@ 1.93
Missouri 1st half total 46 · main lineActual: Missouri over 46
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Cleveland State 1st half total 30.5 · main lineActual: Cleveland State under 30.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.89
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
1st half: MISS + total 76.5
MISS & over
no forecast
@ 1.86
MISS & under
no forecast
@ 1.86
1st half: Draw + total 76.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 41.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 41.00
1st half: CLEV + total 76.5
CLEV & over
no forecast
@ 26.00
CLEV & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half Over/Under 75Actual: Under 75
Over
no forecast
@ 1.74
Under
no forecast
@ 2.16
1st half Over/Under 78Actual: Under 78
Over
no forecast
@ 2.12
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Missouri -16Actual: Missouri -16
MISS -16
no forecast
@ 2.06
CLEV +16
no forecast
@ 1.84
1st half Spread Missouri -14Actual: Missouri -14
MISS -14
no forecast
@ 1.71
CLEV +14
no forecast
@ 2.15
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.62
Under
no forecast
@ 2.62
1st half Over/Under 79.5Actual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.60
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Missouri -17Actual: Missouri -17
MISS -17
no forecast
@ 2.21
CLEV +17
no forecast
@ 1.74
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Missouri (regulation)
MISS
no forecast
@ 1.06
Draw
no forecast
@ 41.00
CLEV
no forecast
@ 13.50

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
MISS win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
CLEV win + total 159.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: MISS leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: CLEV leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Cleveland State +2075.4%3.15
Bet365
3.15		----+45.8ppLost
Cleveland State +1972.4%3.45
Bet365
3.45		----+45.5ppLost
Cleveland State +2178.1%2.80
Bet365
2.80		----+45.1ppLost
Cleveland State +2280.6%2.60
Bet365
2.60		----+44.8ppLost
Cleveland State +2382.9%2.35
Bet365
2.35		----+43.3ppLost
Cleveland State +20.576.0%2.79
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.67		---+42.9ppLost
Cleveland State +2485.0%2.20
Bet365
2.20		----+42.9ppLost
Cleveland State +18.570.3%3.38
Bet365
3.65
Betano
3.10		---+42.7ppLost
Cleveland State +19.573.3%3.04
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.87		---+42.7ppLost
Cleveland State +21.578.6%2.56
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.47		---+42.5ppLost
Cleveland State +22.581.0%2.38
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.27		---+42.0ppLost
Cleveland State +2586.9%1.98
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.92		---+40.2ppLost
Cleveland State +24.585.3%2.08
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05		---+40.2ppLost
Cleveland State +23.583.3%2.07
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.12
1xBet
1.83		--+39.9ppLost
Missouri under 90.576.5%2.33
1xBet
2.50
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.18		--+36.2ppLost
Missouri under 89.573.3%2.45
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40		---+35.7ppLost
Missouri under 91.579.5%2.02
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.07
WilliamHill
1.91		--+33.9ppLost
Cleveland State over 64.572.9%1.53
Betano
1.53		----+13.9ppLost
Cleveland State over 62.579.1%1.37
Betano
1.37		----+13.2ppLost
Under 16371.5%1.57
Bet365
1.57		----+12.6ppWon
Under 163.572.0%1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54		---+12.2ppWon
Cleveland State over 63.576.1%1.45
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.44		--+11.9ppLost
Cleveland State over 61.581.8%1.31
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.31		---+11.7ppLost
Under 164.574.1%1.48
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47		---+11.6ppWon
Under 16575.5%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+11.3ppWon
Under 165.576.0%1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41		---+11.2ppWon
Under 16677.4%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+11.1ppWon
Under 166.577.8%1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37		---+11.0ppWon
Under 16473.5%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+11.0ppWon
Under 16779.2%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+9.7ppWon
Cleveland State over 60.584.4%1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22		---+9.4ppLost
Under 167.579.6%1.32
Bet365
1.32		----+9.1ppWon
Under 170.584.3%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+9.0ppWon
Cleveland State over 59.586.6%1.20
Bet365
1.20		----+8.8ppLost
Under 169.582.8%1.23
Bet365
1.23		----+7.5ppWon
Cleveland State over 57.590.5%1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12		---+7.4ppLost
Cleveland State over 58.588.7%1.14
Bet365
1.14		----+7.2ppLost
Under 175.590.4%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+6.0ppWon
Cleveland State over 55.593.4%1.07
Bet365
1.07		----+5.9ppLost
Under 174.589.3%1.11
Bet365
1.11		----+5.5ppWon
Cleveland State over 56.592.0%1.08
Bet365
1.08		----+5.4ppLost
Over 134.588.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----3.7ppWon
Cleveland State under 83.589.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----4.5ppWon
Over 135.587.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----4.9ppWon
Missouri (regulation)84.7%1.01
Betano
1.01		-----5.4ppWon
Cleveland State under 81.585.3%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----5.8ppWon
Missouri over 72.586.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----7.5ppWon
Over 139.581.4%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----8.0ppWon
Missouri win86.4%1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01		----8.3ppWon
Cleveland State under 79.580.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----8.8ppWon
Missouri over 73.583.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----8.9ppWon
Over 140.579.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----9.7ppWon
Missouri over 74.581.3%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----10.9ppWon
Cleveland State under 77.574.9%1.07
Bet365
1.07		-----12.2ppWon
Missouri over 75.578.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----12.6ppWon
Over 144.572.0%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----13.0ppWon
Cleveland State under 76.571.8%1.10
Bet365
1.10		-----13.8ppWon
Missouri over 76.575.5%1.02
Bet365
1.02		-----15.6ppWon
Missouri over 77.572.2%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----17.1ppWon
Missouri -6.570.9%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----21.3ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Missouri wins
0
Cleveland State wins
DateGameScore
28/11/25Missouri v Cleveland State86-59
Missourilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/26AMiami (FL)66-80
12/03/26HKentucky72-78
07/03/26HArkansas84-88 OT
04/03/26AOklahoma64-80
28/02/26AMississippi St.88-64
25/02/26HTennessee73-69
21/02/26AArkansas86-94
19/02/26HVanderbilt81-80
15/02/26HTexas68-85
12/02/26ATexas A&M86-85
Cleveland Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26AWright State61-90
03/03/26HIU Indy101-93
28/02/26ARobert Morris64-83
26/02/26HNorthern Kentucky70-81
22/02/26HIPFW86-92
18/02/26AYoungstown State82-106
15/02/26HWright State90-102
13/02/26HRobert Morris68-85
07/02/26AIU Indy74-82
05/02/26HOakland91-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 159.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Cleveland State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 159.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Southeastern conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Texas110100%109.059.0+50.0
2 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
3 Ole Miss110100%99.058.0+41.0
4 Tennessee110100%90.059.0+31.0
5 Kentucky110100%85.057.0+28.0
6 South Carolina110100%81.055.0+26.0
7 Alabama110100%96.074.0+22.0
8 Mississippi St.110100%106.088.0+18.0
9 Georgia110100%78.062.0+16.0
10 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
11 Oklahoma1010%64.068.0-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Horizon League conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Wisc. Green Bay110100%94.051.0+43.0
2 Wright State110100%102.071.0+31.0
3 Northern Kentucky110100%84.076.0+8.0
4 Youngstown State110100%79.071.0+8.0
5 IPFW1010%71.078.0-7.0
6 Oakland1010%68.084.0-16.0
7 Wisc. Milwaukee1010%63.095.0-32.0
8 Robert Morris1010%49.086.0-37.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri5655111
Cleveland State183250
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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