PythiaBasketballBETA
Liga LeumitRound 6
Otef Darom host Elitzur Ashkelon in the Liga Leumit on 14 November 2026, with the Pythia model naming Otef Darom the favourite and predicting a 67% chance of victory and a projected score of 86-81. Otef Darom finished the season 3-2 with an average of 82.4 points scored and 78.2 points allowed, ranking seventh, and they are unbeaten at home with a 2-0 record, averaging 92.5 points and conceding 75.0; their last five games included two wins and one loss, highlighted by a 98-67 home victory over Migdal Haemek. Elitzur Ashkelon sits 2-3, averaging 84.6 points scored and 89.2 points allowed, and they have gone 0-2 on the road, scoring 80.0 points and allowing 91.0; their recent five games contain two wins and three losses, with a notable 109-104 home win over Ironi Nahariya. In head-to-head history the teams have met five times, with Elitzur Ashkelon winning four and Otef Darom one, the last encounter ending 95-63 in favour of Otef Darom on 24 April 2026. The spread is set at -3.0 with a 58% probability that Otef Darom covers, the total is 164.0 with a 55% chance of the over, and the model estimates a 5% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 82.4 | 78.2 | 160.6 | +4.2 | 60% |
| Season at home (2) | 92.5 | 75.0 | 167.5 | +17.5 | 100% |
| Season away (3) | 75.7 | 80.3 | 156.0 | -4.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.2 | 81.1 | 161.3 | -0.9 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 82.4 | 78.2 | 160.6 | +4.2 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 79.9 | 86.7 | 166.6 | -6.8 | 25% |
| vs Similar (13) | 82.3 | 81.1 | 163.4 | +1.2 | 31% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 95.2 | 79.2 | 174.4 | +16.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 84.6 | 89.2 | 173.8 | -4.6 | 40% |
| Season at home (3) | 87.7 | 88.0 | 175.7 | -0.3 | 67% |
| Season away (2) | 80.0 | 91.0 | 171.0 | -11.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.1 | 86.6 | 164.7 | -8.5 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 84.6 | 89.2 | 173.8 | -4.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 77.7 | 88.2 | 165.9 | -10.5 | 21% |
| vs Similar (13) | 80.7 | 79.5 | 160.2 | +1.2 | 62% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 92.0 | 82.7 | 174.7 | +9.3 | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 81.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.4 | 40.2 | 81.6 | +1.2 | 50% | 57% |
| Last 30 at home (12) | 44.5 | 38.6 | 83.1 | +5.9 | 58% | 67% |
| Last 30 away (18) | 39.3 | 41.3 | 80.6 | -2.0 | 44% | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 40.1 | 39.2 | 79.3 | +0.9 | 40% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 45.2 | 36.2 | 81.4 | +9.0 | 60% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 37.2 | 41.8 | 79.1 | -4.6 | 33% | 50% |
| vs Similar (13) | 40.0 | 39.8 | 79.8 | +0.2 | 46% | 46% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 54.8 | 37.4 | 92.2 | +17.4 | 100% | 100% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 81.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 41.4 | 41.5 | 82.9 | -0.1 | 47% | 53% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 41.6 | 41.1 | 82.8 | +0.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 41.1 | 42.0 | 83.1 | -0.9 | 43% | 57% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.8 | 43.4 | 83.2 | -3.6 | 20% | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 41.2 | 44.4 | 85.6 | -3.2 | 20% | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 39.4 | 44.3 | 83.7 | -4.9 | 29% | 71% |
| vs Similar (13) | 41.2 | 38.8 | 80.0 | +2.3 | 62% | 23% |
| vs Weaker (3) | 51.7 | 40.3 | 92.0 | +11.3 | 67% | 100% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otef Darom +5.5 | 80.8% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +10.3pp | Won |
| Otef Darom +4.5 | 78.2% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +10.2pp | Won |
| Otef Darom over 78.5 | 75.4% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +9.3pp | Lost |
| Otef Darom over 77.5 | 78.4% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +9.1pp | Lost |
| Otef Darom over 79.5 | 72.2% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.39 | - | - | - | +8.8pp | Lost |
| Otef Darom +2.5 | 72.7% | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +8.1pp | Won |
| Otef Darom +3.5 | 75.3% | 1.34 | 1.40 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +7.8pp | Won |
| Over 156.5 | 71.7% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +5.1pp | Lost |
| Overtime: no | 95.1% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +3.6pp | Won |
| Elitzur Ashkelon under 86.5 | 71.5% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | +2.9pp | Won |
| Elitzur Ashkelon over 74.5 | 72.2% | 1.27 | 1.27 | - | - | - | - | +2.1pp | Lost |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 | Elitzur Ashkelon v Otef Darom | 63-95 |
| 19/12/25 | Otef Darom v Elitzur Ashkelon | 80-91 |
| 01/04/25 | Elitzur Ashkelon v Otef Darom | 83-68 |
| 21/03/25 | Elitzur Ashkelon v Otef Darom | 93-69 |
| 28/12/24 | Otef Darom v Elitzur Ashkelon | 72-94 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | A | Elitzur Yavne | 88-81 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Migdal Haemek | 98-67 |
| 30/10/26 | A | Elitzur Shomron | 61-74 |
| 23/10/26 | H | Maccabi Kiryat Motzkin | 87-83 |
| 16/10/26 | A | Ramat Hasharon | 78-86 |
| 27/05/26 | H | Maccabi Ashdod | 79-82 |
| 24/05/26 | A | Maccabi Ashdod | 84-110 |
| 19/05/26 | H | Maccabi Ashdod | 71-67 |
| 15/05/26 | A | Maccabi Ashdod | 79-103 |
| 12/05/26 | A | Maccabi Rehovot | 77-58 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/26 | H | Maccabi Rehovot | 66-92 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Elitzur Maccabi Netanya | 83-88 |
| 30/10/26 | H | Ironi Nahariya | 109-104 OT |
| 20/10/26 | A | Hapoel Haifa | 77-94 |
| 16/10/26 | H | Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 88-68 |
| 09/05/26 | H | Maccabi Ashdod | 74-76 |
| 05/05/26 | A | Maccabi Ashdod | 73-91 |
| 28/04/26 | A | Elitzur Yavne | 80-68 |
| 24/04/26 | H | Otef Darom | 63-95 |
| 17/04/26 | H | Ironi Nahariya | 68-90 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLWW | 60% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LLW | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 60% | 100% | 33% |
| Points / game | 82.4 | 92.5 | 75.7 |
| Allowed / game | 78.2 | 75.0 | 80.3 |
| Point differential | +4.2 | +17.5 | -4.7 |
| Avg total | 160.6 | 167.5 | 156.0 |
| Over 164 | 60% | 100% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | 100% (1) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWLL | 40% |
| Home | WWL | 67% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 40% | 67% | 0% |
| Points / game | 84.6 | 87.7 | 80.0 |
| Allowed / game | 89.2 | 88.0 | 91.0 |
| Point differential | -4.6 | -0.3 | -11.0 |
| Avg total | 173.8 | 175.7 | 171.0 |
| Over 164 | 60% | 33% | 100% |
| Win by 10+ | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 20% | 33% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Elitzur Maccabi Netanya | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 86.7 | 71.2 | +15.5 |
| 2 |  Maccabi Raanana | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 80.7 | 75.0 | +5.7 |
| 3 |  Ironi Nahariya | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 84.4 | 74.2 | +10.2 |
| 4 |  Ramat Hasharon | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 83.0 | 80.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 |  Maccabi Rehovot | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 85.2 | 73.7 | +11.5 |
| 6 |  Hapoel Haifa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 83.6 | 73.2 | +10.4 |
| 7 | Otef Darom | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 82.4 | 78.2 | +4.2 |
| 8 | Elitzur Shomron | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 78.8 | 76.8 | +2.0 |
| 9 |  Maccabi Petah Tikva | 5 | 3 | 2 | 60% | 91.4 | 91.0 | +0.4 |
| 10 | Elitzur Ashkelon | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 84.6 | 89.2 | -4.6 |
| 11 |  Maccabi Kiryat Motzkin | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 87.5 | 90.0 | -2.5 |
| 12 |  Maccabi Kiryat Gat | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 76.8 | 85.5 | -8.8 |
| 13 | H. Hevel Modiin | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 70.2 | 81.2 | -11.0 |
| 14 |  Elitzur Yavne | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 69.3 | 87.3 | -18.0 |
| 15 |  Migdal Haemek | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 72.2 | 94.4 | -22.2 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Otef Darom | 23 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 77 |
| Elitzur Ashkelon | 21 | 13 | 14 | 22 | 70 |
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