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Penn State W vs Cleveland State W Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 22:00
Projected 72-72
Projected total 144.2
Final 61-62
10-9 15-18 19-17 17-18
Position#350
Record-
FormLWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Penn State W
USA
Vs
51%
49%
■ PENN 51%■ CLEV 49%
Pythia win probability
Cleveland State W 🏆
USA
Position#265
Record-
FormWLWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA Women
Women2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Penn State W will host Cleveland State W in a tightly contested NCAA Women match on 2 November 2026, a contest where neither side holds a clear edge. Penn State's recent five outings have yielded three wins and two losses, with a notable victory over USC Trojans W 85-82 at home on 25 February 2026, while a loss to Indiana W 59-93 away on 28 February 2026 shows the team can be vulnerable. Cleveland State's last five games mirror that pattern, three wins and two defeats, highlighted by a win over Middle Tennessee W 66-56 away on 26 March 2026 and a loss to Arkansas State W 53-71 away on 30 March 2026. Pythia assigns a 51% chance to Penn State and a 49% chance to Cleveland State, making the former the model favourite, and projects a 72-72 scoreline with a total of 144.2 points, suggesting a high likelihood of an overtime finish at 5%. The projected spread is 0, and the model predicts a 50% probability that the home team covers, reflecting the evenly matched nature of the matchup. The game will be decided by the teams' ability to convert the tight margins seen in their recent performances.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Penn State W winLost
50.7%fair 1.97
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Cleveland State W winWon
49.3%fair 2.03
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Penn State WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington W
#96
L
65-81
65
81
-16
A22/01
NCAA Women
Oregon W
#113
L
59-89
59
89
-30
A24/01
NCAA Women
Minnesota W
#64
L
66-87
66
87
-21
H28/01
NCAA Women
Purdue W
#247
W
85-82 OT
85
82
+3
A05/02
NCAA Women
Michigan State W
#68
L
70-81
70
81
-11
H07/02
NCAA Women
Maryland W
#63
L
62-81
62
81
-19
A13/02
NCAA Women
Northwestern W
#322
W
81-71
81
71
+10
H15/02
NCAA Women
Rutgers W
#311
W
87-78
87
78
+9
A21/02
NCAA Women
USC Trojans W
#164
W
85-82
85
82
+3
H25/02
NCAA Women
Indiana W
#171
L
59-93
59
93
-34
A28/02
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-21
26-17
14-22
14-21
12-16
22-24
11-34
14-15
12-19
26-23
17-25
11-20
18-15
18-19
14-18
24-22
28-13
17-20
7-21
18-27
17-16
17-22
16-20
12-23
22-13
14-9
22-27
23-22
21-18
17-14
25-21
24-25
24-26
15-20
19-13
27-23
8-31
15-26
20-15
16-21
154.4Avg total
71.9Scored
82.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.982.5154.4-10.640%
Last 5 (5)74.881.0155.8-6.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)72.087.5159.5-15.524%
vs Similar (9)79.669.0148.6+10.667%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cleveland State W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Cleveland State WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wisc. Green Bay W
#60
W
83-82 OT
83
82
+1
H12/02
NCAA Women
Robert Morris W
#142
W
57-52
57
52
+5
A14/02
NCAA Women
IU Indy W
#233
W
74-45
74
45
+29
H20/02
NCAA Women
Wright State W
#306
W
81-55
81
55
+26
A26/02
NCAA Women
Oakland W
#305
W
73-59
73
59
+14
H28/02
NCAA Women
Oakland W
#305
W
81-80 OT
81
80
+1
H05/03
NCAA Women
Youngstown State W
#69
L
55-60
55
60
-5
A09/03
NCAA Women
Monmouth W
#119
W
74-68
74
68
+6
H23/03
NCAA Women
Middle Tennessee W
#194
W
66-56
66
56
+10
A26/03
NCAA Women
Arkansas State W
#62
L
53-71
53
71
-18
A31/03
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
16-12
18-22
24-24
10-13
13-10
21-11
13-18
24-5
10-10
19-14
21-16
20-4
19-22
19-16
23-13
18-21
18-7
12-13
25-18
8-19
21-12
24-20
19-21
12-14
11-10
17-11
15-25
19-16
14-15
15-16
26-21
14-14
17-15
11-9
24-18
7-19
16-11
10-25
20-16
132.5Avg total
69.7Scored
62.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)69.762.8132.5+6.980%
Last 5 (5)65.867.0132.8-1.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)67.061.0128.0+6.0100%
vs Similar (10)62.666.5129.1-3.940%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)70.660.4131.0+10.279%
This opponent (Penn State W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 126Actual: Under 126
Over 126
86.9%
Under 126
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 131Actual: Under 131
Over 131
79.0%
Under 131
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 136Actual: Under 136
Over 136
68.9%
Under 136
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Penn State W total 66.5Actual: Penn State W under 66.5
Over 66.5
70.9%
Under 66.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn State W total 70.5Actual: Penn State W under 70.5
Over 70.5
56.4%
Under 70.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penn State W total 74.5Actual: Penn State W under 74.5
Over 74.5
41.0%
Under 74.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State W total 56.5Actual: Cleveland State W over 56.5
Over 56.5
93.4%
Under 56.5
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State W total 60.5Actual: Cleveland State W over 60.5
Over 60.5
86.8%
Under 60.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cleveland State W total 64.5Actual: Cleveland State W under 64.5
Over 64.5
76.6%
Under 64.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Penn State W -3Actual: Cleveland State W +3
PENN -3
41.5%
CLEV +3
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
PENN
No market prices yet.
CLEV
No market prices yet.
Spread Penn State W 0Actual: Cleveland State W 0
PENN 0
50.7%
CLEV 0
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
PENN
No market prices yet.
CLEV
No market prices yet.
Spread Penn State W +3Actual: Penn State W +3
PENN +3
59.8%
CLEV -3
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
PENN
No market prices yet.
CLEV
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: +2.0+2.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +3.1+3.1Q3Q3: -5.1-5.1Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -3.6-3.6Q4: +2.0+2.0
Penn State WCleveland State W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Penn State WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington W
#96
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A22/01
NCAA Women
Oregon W
#113
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A24/01
NCAA Women
Minnesota W
#64
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H28/01
NCAA Women
Purdue W
#247
W
36-34
36
34
+2
A05/02
NCAA Women
Michigan State W
#68
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H07/02
NCAA Women
Maryland W
#63
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A13/02
NCAA Women
Northwestern W
#322
W
36-22
36
22
+14
H15/02
NCAA Women
Rutgers W
#311
W
38-32
38
32
+6
A21/02
NCAA Women
USC Trojans W
#164
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H25/02
NCAA Women
Indiana W
#171
L
23-57
23
57
-34
A28/02
NCAA Women
74.2Avg total
36.0Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.838.874.6-2.940%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.637.272.8-1.647%-
Last 30 away (15)36.140.376.4-4.333%-
Last 10 (10)36.038.274.2-2.240%-
Last 5 (5)34.039.073.0-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)35.341.777.0-6.329%-
vs Similar (9)37.032.069.0+5.067%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cleveland State W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Cleveland State WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wisc. Green Bay W
#60
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H12/02
NCAA Women
Robert Morris W
#142
D
23-23
23
23
+0
A14/02
NCAA Women
IU Indy W
#233
W
34-15
34
15
+19
H20/02
NCAA Women
Wright State W
#306
W
39-26
39
26
+13
A26/02
NCAA Women
Oakland W
#305
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H28/02
NCAA Women
Oakland W
#305
L
29-31
29
31
-2
H05/03
NCAA Women
Youngstown State W
#69
L
23-24
23
24
-1
A09/03
NCAA Women
Monmouth W
#119
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H23/03
NCAA Women
Middle Tennessee W
#194
W
31-29
31
29
+2
A26/03
NCAA Women
Arkansas State W
#62
L
23-30
23
30
-7
A31/03
NCAA Women
57.2Avg total
30.5Scored
26.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)31.427.859.2+3.660%-
Last 30 at home (15)33.525.759.1+7.873%-
Last 30 away (15)29.329.959.3-0.647%-
Last 10 (10)30.526.757.2+3.860%-
Last 5 (5)27.829.056.8-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)34.030.064.0+4.0100%-
vs Similar (10)26.329.956.2-3.640%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)33.926.660.5+7.468%-
This opponent (Penn State W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Penn State W wins
0
Cleveland State W wins
No previous meetings.
Penn State Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26AIndiana W59-93
25/02/26HUSC Trojans W85-82
21/02/26ARutgers W87-78
15/02/26HNorthwestern W81-71
13/02/26AMaryland W62-81
07/02/26HMichigan State W70-81
05/02/26APurdue W85-82 OT
28/01/26HMinnesota W66-87
24/01/26AOregon W59-89
22/01/26AWashington W65-81
Cleveland State Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/03/26AArkansas State W53-71
26/03/26AMiddle Tennessee W66-56
23/03/26HMonmouth W74-68
09/03/26AYoungstown State W55-60
05/03/26HOakland W81-80 OT
28/02/26HOakland W73-59
26/02/26AWright State W81-55
20/02/26HIU Indy W74-45
14/02/26ARobert Morris W57-52
12/02/26HWisc. Green Bay W83-82 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Penn State W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Cleveland State W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMKC W110100%120.040.0+80.0
2 Yale Bulldogs W110100%111.038.0+73.0
3 Oakland W110100%104.032.0+72.0
4 South Carolina State W110100%112.042.0+70.0
5 Utah Tech W110100%107.039.0+68.0
6 Detroit Titans W110100%94.030.0+64.0
7 Vanderbilt W110100%112.053.0+59.0
8 St. John's (N.Y.) W110100%95.037.0+58.0
9 Morgan State W110100%103.047.0+56.0
10 Montana State W110100%82.038.0+44.0
11 Ole Miss W110100%80.038.0+42.0
12 East Texas A&M Lions W110100%81.040.0+41.0
13 William & Mary W110100%89.048.0+41.0
14 Butler W110100%108.071.0+37.0
15 Boise State W110100%84.048.0+36.0
16 Stony Brook W110100%73.039.0+34.0
17 USC Trojans W110100%100.068.0+32.0
18 Kennesaw State W110100%72.042.0+30.0
19 Nebraska Cornhuskers W110100%81.054.0+27.0
20 Southern Mississippi W110100%85.059.0+26.0
21 Idaho Vandals W110100%71.047.0+24.0
22 Notre Dame W110100%99.075.0+24.0
23 UMass Lowell W110100%77.053.0+24.0
24 Iona W110100%76.054.0+22.0
25 Clemson W110100%68.047.0+21.0
26 UCLA W110100%73.053.0+20.0
27 Washington W110100%79.063.0+16.0
28 Georgia Tech W110100%80.065.0+15.0
29 Stanford Cardinal W110100%84.069.0+15.0
30 Coastal Carolina W110100%68.054.0+14.0
31 Mcneese State W110100%65.053.0+12.0
32 Oklahoma Sooners W110100%91.079.0+12.0
33 Houston Cougars W110100%73.065.0+8.0
34 South Carolina W110100%101.093.0+8.0
35 Columbia W110100%71.065.0+6.0
36 Old Dominion W110100%62.058.0+4.0
37 Seattle U Redhawks W110100%63.062.0+1.0
38 New Mexico W1010%62.063.0-1.0
39 Central Michigan W1010%58.062.0-4.0
40 Davidson W1010%65.071.0-6.0
41 Hampton W1010%65.073.0-8.0
42 Maryland W1010%93.0101.0-8.0
43 North Carolina W1010%79.091.0-12.0
44 Texas A&M-Kingsville W1010%53.065.0-12.0
45 Western Michigan W1010%54.068.0-14.0
46 Arizona Wildcats W1010%69.084.0-15.0
47 Hofstra W1010%65.080.0-15.0
48 UC San Diego Tritons W1010%63.079.0-16.0
49 Lehigh W1010%53.073.0-20.0
50 Radford W1010%47.068.0-21.0
51 Dominican Chargers W1010%54.076.0-22.0
52 St. Anselm Hawks W1010%53.077.0-24.0
53 St. Martin's W1010%47.071.0-24.0
54 Villanova W1010%75.099.0-24.0
55 Mississippi Christian W1010%59.085.0-26.0
56 San Jose State W1010%54.081.0-27.0
57 Shorter W1010%42.072.0-30.0
58 UNLV Lady Rebels W1010%68.0100.0-32.0
59 Molloy W1010%39.073.0-34.0
60 Bushnell W1010%48.084.0-36.0
61 Tennessee Tech W1010%71.0108.0-37.0
62 Chowan W1010%48.089.0-41.0
63 Oklahoma Christian W1010%40.081.0-41.0
64 Alcorn State W1010%38.080.0-42.0
65 Black Hills W1010%38.082.0-44.0
66 Washington Adventist W1010%47.0103.0-56.0
67 Lafayette W1010%37.095.0-58.0
68 Lipscomb Bisons W1010%53.0112.0-59.0
69 Michigan-Dearborn W1010%30.094.0-64.0
70 Life Pacific W1010%39.0107.0-68.0
71 Trinity College of Jacksonville W1010%42.0112.0-70.0
72 Cleary University W1010%32.0104.0-72.0
73 Elms College W1010%38.0111.0-73.0
74 Baker Wildcats W1010%40.0120.0-80.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 74 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Penn State W1015191761
Cleveland State W918171862
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