Princeton will host Hofstra on 5 November 2026 in a match that feels almost evenly matched, with only a slim edge for the visitors; the Pythia model gives Hofstra a 55% chance to win against Princeton's 45%. Princeton, 1-0 this season, has averaged 78.0 points per game while allowing 46.0, and has won its sole home outing 78-46 over Carnegie Mellon, though it fell 53-78 at Yale and edged Dartmouth 82-61. Hofstra, also 1-0, has posted 97.0 points per game and 51.0 allowed, winning four of its last five games, including a 97-51 victory over St. Joseph's (Brooklyn) and a 75-69 win over Monmouth, but losing 70-90 to Alabama. Their head-to-head record stands 3-1 in Hofstra's favour, with Princeton's lone win coming 74-67 in 2023. Pythia projects a 69-70 score and a total of 139.5 points, with the home line at -2.5 and a 38% chance that Princeton covers, while the over line of 140.5 carries a 47% probability; the game has a 5% chance of overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Princeton winWon
45.1%fair 2.22
Best odds1.65
Implied58.7%
Edge-13.6pp
Hofstra winLost
54.9%fair 1.82
Best odds2.33
Implied41.3%
Edge+13.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Princeton) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 135Actual: Under 135
Over 135
60.5%
@ 1.47-3.0pp
Under 135
39.5%
@ 2.55+3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Over/Under 140 · main lineActual: Under 140
Over 140
48.2%
@ 1.91-2.4pp
Under 140
51.8%
@ 1.93+2.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 145Actual: Under 145
Over 145
36.1%
@ 2.62+0.7pp
Under 145
63.9%
@ 1.44-0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
Princeton total 67.5Actual: Princeton under 67.5
Over 67.5
no forecast
@ 1.44
Under 67.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.42
Princeton total 72 · main lineActual: Princeton under 72
Over 72
38.2%
@ 1.85-11.8pp
Under 72
61.8%
@ 1.85+11.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Princeton total 76Actual: Princeton under 76
Over 76
24.2%
Under 76
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hofstra total 66Actual: Hofstra under 66
Over 66
67.3%
Under 66
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hofstra total 70 · main lineActual: Hofstra under 70
Over 70
51.7%
@ 1.85+1.7pp
Under 70
48.3%
@ 1.85-1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Hofstra total 74Actual: Hofstra under 74
Over 74
35.9%
Under 74
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Princeton -6Actual: Hofstra +6
PRIN -6
25.9%
@ 2.35-13.7pp
HOFS +6
74.1%
@ 1.54+13.7pp
Best 5 market prices
PRIN
Bet365
2.35
HOFS
Bet365
1.54
Spread Princeton -3 · main lineActual: Hofstra +3
PRIN -3
36.1%
@ 1.92-14.1pp
HOFS +3
63.9%
@ 1.93+14.1pp
Best 5 market prices
PRIN
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.89
Marathon Be
1.83
HOFS
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Spread Princeton 0Actual: Princeton 0
PRIN 0
45.1%
HOFS 0
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
PRIN
No market prices yet.
HOFS
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
PrincetonHofstra
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Hofstra +6
74.1%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+13.7pp
Won
Hofstra +7
77.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Hofstra +8
79.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+13.5pp
Won
Hofstra +5.5
71.8%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Hofstra +6.5
74.9%
1.50
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Hofstra +7.5
77.7%
1.43
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Hofstra +10
84.4%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Hofstra +8.5
80.3%
1.37
Bet365
1.38
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Hofstra +9
82.2%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Hofstra +5
70.9%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+12.5pp
Won
Hofstra +9.5
82.6%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
Hofstra +10.5
84.7%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Hofstra +12.5
88.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Hofstra +11.5
86.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Hofstra +17.5
94.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Hofstra +22.5
97.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Princeton under 74.5
70.2%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Hofstra +16.5
93.5%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Hofstra +21.5
97.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+7.4pp
Won
Princeton under 76.5
76.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Princeton under 75.5
73.5%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Won
Hofstra over 64.5
71.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Princeton under 77.5
79.4%
1.27
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Princeton under 78.5
82.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Hofstra over 63.5
75.1%
1.32
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Lost
Princeton under 80.5
86.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Won
Princeton under 79.5
84.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.06
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
+4.8pp
-
Hofstra over 61.5
80.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Lost
Princeton under 87.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Princeton under 88.5
96.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Princeton under 86.5
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Princeton under 81.5
88.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Princeton under 84.5
93.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Princeton under 85.5
94.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Hofstra over 53.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Princeton +23.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Hofstra over 59.5
85.7%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Princeton under 89.5
97.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Princeton under 82.5
90.3%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Princeton under 83.5
91.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Hofstra over 55.5
92.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Princeton +22.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Won
Hofstra over 62.5
78.1%
1.23
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Princeton +18.5
92.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Hofstra over 57.5
89.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Hofstra over 54.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Hofstra over 58.5
87.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Lost
Princeton +17.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Hofstra over 56.5
91.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Won
Under 148.5
71.1%
1.34
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
93.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Hofstra over 60.5
83.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Under 164.5
93.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9pp
Won
Under 148
70.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+0.5pp
Won
Under 160.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Princeton +13.5
85.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Under 159.5
88.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Under 155.5
83.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Under 150.5
75.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Under 149.5
73.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Under 154.5
81.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Princeton +12.5
83.3%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Hofstra under 81.5
85.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Over 129.5
72.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Lost
Over 124.5
81.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Lost
Princeton +8.5
73.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Hofstra under 77.5
75.5%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Hofstra under 79.5
81.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-4.9pp
Won
Over 125.5
80.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Lost
Over 130.5
70.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Lost
Hofstra under 78.5
78.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.0pp
Won
Princeton +7.5
70.0%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-7.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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