The San Diego Toreros host Chicago State on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names the Toreros the clear favourite, rating them 82% to win largely because of their 2-1 record and an average of 83.3 points per game while allowing 78.3, placing them 181st in the league. Chicago State sits 2-2 overall, scoring 68.2 and conceding 76.8, a 235th position, and has a 2-1 road record with 68.7 points per game and 75.0 allowed. The Toreros have won both home games, 2-0, averaging 87.5 points and 76.0 allowed, and their last five games show three wins and two losses, including a 96-90 win over Tarleton and a 79-62 victory over Biola. Chicago State's last five contain two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 81-62 win over California Baptist and a 66-54 win over Incarnate Word. The Pythia projection is 80-69, with a 148.7 total, and the Toreros cover the -13.5 line with a 39% chance; the over on the 147.5 line has a 53% probability, and the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The Toreros' recent home dominance suggests they will finish strong.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
San Diego Toreros winWon
80.9%fair 1.24
Best odds1.07
Implied91.5%
Edge-10.6pp
Chicago State winLost
19.1%fair 5.24
Best odds11.35
Implied8.5%
Edge+10.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 14:24 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (San Diego Toreros) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 143Actual: Over 143
Over 143
66.5%
@ 2.02+19.5pp
Under 143
33.5%
@ 1.80-19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Be
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Under
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Marathon Be
1.65
Over/Under 148 · main lineActual: Over 148
Over 148
54.4%
@ 2.65+4.1pp
Under 148
45.6%
@ 1.92-4.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Marathon Be
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.88
Marathon Be
1.81
Bet365
1.43
Over/Under 153Actual: Over 153
Over 153
42.0%
@ 2.65+6.9pp
Under 153
58.0%
@ 1.43-6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Under
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
San Diego Toreros total 77Actual: San Diego Toreros over 77
Over 77
62.1%
Under 77
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
San Diego Toreros total 81 · main lineActual: San Diego Toreros over 81
Over 81
45.7%
@ 1.85-4.3pp
Under 81
54.3%
@ 1.87+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.85
San Diego Toreros total 85Actual: San Diego Toreros over 85
Over 85
29.9%
Under 85
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chicago State total 62.5Actual: Chicago State over 62.5
Over 62.5
76.7%
@ 1.91+27.1pp
Under 62.5
23.3%
@ 1.88-27.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Chicago State total 66.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State over 66.5
Over 66.5
63.0%
@ 2.62+13.0pp
Under 66.5
37.0%
@ 1.89-13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Chicago State total 70.5Actual: Chicago State under 70.5
Over 70.5
47.5%
@ 2.65+13.3pp
Under 70.5
52.5%
@ 1.38-13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Under
Betano
1.38
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread San Diego Toreros -19.5Actual: San Diego Toreros -19.5
SAN -19.5
19.8%
@ 2.50-19.2pp
CHIC +19.5
80.2%
@ 1.55+19.2pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.27
CHIC
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
Spread San Diego Toreros -16.5 · main lineActual: San Diego Toreros -16.5
SAN -16.5
27.8%
@ 1.90-22.7pp
CHIC +16.5
72.2%
@ 1.94+22.7pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
BetVictor
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
CHIC
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Spread San Diego Toreros -13.5Actual: San Diego Toreros -13.5
SAN -13.5
37.3%
@ 1.78-19.6pp
CHIC +13.5
62.7%
@ 2.25+19.6pp
Best 5 market prices
SAN
BetVictor
1.78
1xBet
1.76
Marathon Be
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.60
CHIC
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Marathon Be
1.98
1xBet
1.98
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
San Diego TorerosChicago State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Chicago State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Chicago StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Le Moyne
#240
L
34-39
34
39
-5
A14/02
NCAA
Fairleigh Dickinson
#315
W
33-32
33
32
+1
H20/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H21/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
25-41
25
41
-16
A27/02
NCAA
Wagner
#249
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A28/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A05/03
NCAA
Texas
#2
L
29-53
29
53
-24
A03/11
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#378
D
32-32
32
32
+0
A06/11
NCAA
South Carolina St
#136
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H10/11
NCAA
California Baptist
#321
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A12/11
NCAA
71.5Avg total
35.0Scored
36.5Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 73.5
Last 30 (30)
34.9
38.0
72.9
-3.0
37%
47%
Last 30 at home (11)
33.9
35.1
69.0
-1.2
45%
27%
Last 30 away (19)
35.5
39.6
75.2
-4.1
32%
58%
Last 10 (10)
35.0
36.5
71.5
-1.5
50%
40%
Last 5 (5)
35.8
37.8
73.6
-2.0
60%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)
34.0
38.3
72.3
-4.4
29%
46%
vs Similar (4)
40.8
39.8
80.5
+1.0
75%
75%
vs Weaker (2)
35.0
30.0
65.0
+5.0
50%
0%
This opponent (San Diego Toreros) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: San Diego Toreros win
SAN win
no forecast
@ 1.24
CHIC win
no forecast
@ 4.15
2nd half Spread San Diego Toreros -6.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State +6.5
SAN -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
CHIC +6.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 73.5 · main lineActual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
San Diego Toreros 2nd half total 40.5 · main lineActual: San Diego Toreros over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Chicago State 2nd half total 33.5 · main lineActual: Chicago State over 33.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Spread San Diego Toreros -7.5Actual: Chicago State +7.5
SAN -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
CHIC +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 75.5Actual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: San Diego Toreros (regulation)
SAN
no forecast
@ 1.26
Draw
no forecast
@ 22.00
CHIC
no forecast
@ 4.10
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Chicago State over 62
79.0%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+29.0pp
Won
Chicago State over 63.5
73.6%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.03
Betano
2.02
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
+27.1pp
Won
Chicago State over 62.5
76.7%
1.86
BetVictor
1.91
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+27.1pp
Won
Chicago State over 61.5
79.6%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.72
Bet365
1.47
-
-
+27.0pp
Won
Chicago State over 63
76.0%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+26.0pp
Won
Chicago State over 64.5
70.2%
1.94
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.12
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
+25.9pp
Won
Chicago State over 60.5
82.3%
1.57
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
-
+24.5pp
Won
Chicago State +16
71.3%
1.92
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathon Bet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.80
-
+24.3pp
Lost
Chicago State +16.5
72.2%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
+22.7pp
Lost
Chicago State +17
74.3%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Bet365
1.71
-
+22.5pp
Lost
Chicago State over 64
72.6%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
-
-
-
+22.1pp
Won
Chicago State over 59.5
84.8%
1.46
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+21.8pp
Won
Chicago State +17.5
75.1%
1.73
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72
Bet365
1.66
-
+20.9pp
Lost
Chicago State +18
77.1%
1.65
Pinnacle
1.70
Bet365
1.60
-
-
-
+20.8pp
Lost
Over 139
75.1%
1.66
Pinnacle
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.55
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Over 140
73.0%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
Bet365
1.62
-
+20.2pp
Won
Over 141
70.9%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.87
Bet365
1.71
-
+20.1pp
Won
Over 138.5
75.6%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.66
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
+20.0pp
Won
Over 139.5
73.6%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.57
+19.8pp
Won
Chicago State +18.5
77.7%
1.61
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.57
-
-
+19.7pp
Lost
Over 140.5
71.5%
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
+19.7pp
Won
Chicago State +19.5
80.2%
1.52
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+19.2pp
Lost
Chicago State over 57.5
89.0%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+18.9pp
Won
Chicago State +19
79.7%
1.52
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Chicago State +20.5
82.5%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Chicago State over 58.5
87.0%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Chicago State +20
82.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Push
Chicago State +21.5
84.6%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Won
Chicago State +21
84.2%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+16.7pp
Won
Chicago State +22.5
86.5%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
77.5%
1.50
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Won
Chicago State +23.5
88.2%
1.27
Betano
1.30
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Chicago State +22
86.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+15.3pp
Won
Chicago State over 56.5
90.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
Over 136.5
79.3%
1.42
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Chicago State over 55.5
92.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+14.5pp
Won
Over 135.5
81.0%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Chicago State +23
88.0%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Over 138
77.0%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Over 137
78.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Over 134.5
82.6%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+13.2pp
Won
Over 136
80.7%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Over 135
82.3%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Chicago State over 54.5
93.6%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Chicago State over 53.5
94.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Chicago State over 52.5
95.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Chicago State over 51.5
96.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+8.6pp
Won
Chicago State +24.5
89.7%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Chicago State over 49.5
97.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 86.5
74.5%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros over 74.5
70.8%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 73.5
74.1%
1.31
Bet365
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 63.5
94.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 90.5
85.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 71.5
80.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 65.5
92.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 69.5
85.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 70.5
82.7%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 97.5
96.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 67.5
89.2%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.4%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 95.5
94.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 93.5
91.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
San Diego Toreros over 72.5
77.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros +6.5
91.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 91.5
87.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 85.5
71.1%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Lost
San Diego Toreros under 89.5
83.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
San Diego Toreros under 87.5
77.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Chicago State under 81.5
86.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
San Diego Toreros (regulation)
78.8%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-10.2pp
Won
Chicago State under 76.5
74.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Won
San Diego Toreros win
80.9%
1.04
BetVictor
1.07
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Pinnacle
1.05
WilliamHill
1.04
-10.6pp
Won
Chicago State under 79.5
82.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Chicago State under 77.5
77.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Chicago State under 75.5
70.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-18.8pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.