On 3 November 2026 the Sichuan team will host Fujian in the CBA, with the model designating Fujian as the clear favourite thanks to a 4-3 record, 91.7 points per game and 88.3 allowed, placing them 7th, versus Sichuan's 2-5 record, 80.6 points per game and 95.6 allowed, 18th; Fujian's 94% win probability reflects that advantage. Sichuan has struggled all season, winning only two of seven games, scoring 80.6 and conceding 95.6 points, while at home they are 1-2, 75.7 points and 89.0 allowed; their last five games have been a winless streak, including losses to Shanxi Zhongyu 89-95, Beijing Royal Fighters 64-115 and Nanjing Tongxi 81-91. Fujian, meanwhile, has won three of five recent games, with victories over Qingdao 95-86, Shandong 102-90 and a loss to Jiangsu Dragons 78-88, and their road record is 1-2, 85.3 points and 89.0 allowed. Historically Fujian has dominated the rivalry, winning seven of ten meetings and most recently 118-82 on 25 January 2026. The Pythia model gives Fujian a 94% chance to win, Sichuan 6%, projects a 81-101 score and 182.8 total points, with an 8.0-point line favouring Sichuan and a 15% chance they cover; the 181.5 total line has a 52% over probability and a 2% chance of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Sichuan can reverse its recent slump and keep the deficit below the spread.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 80.6 | 95.6 | 176.1 | -15.0 | 29% |
| Season at home (3) | 75.7 | 89.0 | 164.7 | -13.3 | 33% |
| Season away (4) | 84.2 | 100.5 | 184.8 | -16.2 | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 80.1 | 96.7 | 176.8 | -16.6 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 75.2 | 99.2 | 174.4 | -24.0 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (30) | 75.0 | 100.8 | 175.8 | -25.8 | 7% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (7) | 91.7 | 88.3 | 180.0 | +3.4 | 57% |
| Season at home (4) | 96.5 | 87.8 | 184.2 | +8.8 | 75% |
| Season away (3) | 85.3 | 89.0 | 174.3 | -3.7 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 92.4 | 89.3 | 181.7 | +3.1 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 91.8 | 86.8 | 178.6 | +5.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (15) | 93.9 | 97.8 | 191.7 | -3.9 | 40% |
| vs Similar (8) | 91.0 | 92.4 | 183.4 | -1.4 | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 91.0 | 85.7 | 176.7 | +5.3 | 71% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 94.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.3 | 51.4 | 88.7 | -14.1 | 13% | 27% |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 36.2 | 52.4 | 88.7 | -16.2 | 12% | 25% |
| Last 30 away (14) | 38.5 | 50.3 | 88.8 | -11.8 | 14% | 29% |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.9 | 52.5 | 92.4 | -12.6 | 20% | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.4 | 54.8 | 91.2 | -18.4 | 0% | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (30) | 37.3 | 51.4 | 88.7 | -14.1 | 13% | 27% |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 94.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 46.5 | 49.9 | 96.3 | -3.4 | 30% | 47% |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 47.7 | 50.9 | 98.6 | -3.2 | 29% | 57% |
| Last 30 away (16) | 45.4 | 48.9 | 94.3 | -3.6 | 31% | 38% |
| Last 10 (10) | 45.4 | 47.2 | 92.6 | -1.8 | 30% | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 46.6 | 47.6 | 94.2 | -1.0 | 40% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (15) | 45.9 | 53.4 | 99.3 | -7.5 | 13% | 60% |
| vs Similar (8) | 46.6 | 48.0 | 94.6 | -1.4 | 38% | 38% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (7) | 47.6 | 44.4 | 92.0 | +3.1 | 57% | 29% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fujian -12.5 | 73.2% | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.66 | 2.10 | - | - | +39.8pp | Lost |
| Fujian -11.5 | 75.9% | 2.32 | 2.55 | 2.42 | 1.98 | - | - | +39.2pp | Lost |
| Fujian -10.5 | 78.4% | 2.24 | 2.30 | 2.21 | 2.21 | - | - | +38.4pp | Lost |
| Fujian -10 | 80.3% | 2.15 | 2.16 | 2.14 | - | - | - | +37.7pp | Lost |
| Fujian -4.5 | 90.2% | 1.61 | 1.74 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.52 | 1.50 | +37.3pp | Won |
| Fujian -9 | 82.5% | 2.01 | 2.02 | 2.01 | - | - | - | +37.1pp | Lost |
| Fujian -4 | 91.6% | 1.62 | 1.71 | 1.68 | 1.47 | - | - | +36.9pp | Won |
| Fujian -9.5 | 80.7% | 2.09 | 2.15 | 2.09 | 2.07 | 2.04 | - | +36.8pp | Lost |
| Fujian -13.5 | 70.4% | 2.58 | 2.93 | 2.24 | - | - | - | +36.6pp | Lost |
| Fujian -8.5 | 82.9% | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.96 | 1.95 | 1.89 | - | +35.8pp | Lost |
| Fujian -8 | 84.7% | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.88 | 1.83 | - | - | +35.6pp | Push |
| Fujian -3.5 | 91.7% | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.40 | - | +35.3pp | Won |
| Fujian -3 | 92.8% | 1.49 | 1.58 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +34.7pp | Won |
| Fujian -12 | 75.2% | 2.06 | 2.06 | - | - | - | - | +34.6pp | Lost |
| Fujian -11 | 77.8% | 1.93 | 1.93 | - | - | - | - | +34.3pp | Lost |
| Fujian -13 | 72.4% | 2.18 | 2.18 | - | - | - | - | +34.2pp | Lost |
| Fujian -7.5 | 85.0% | 1.84 | 1.86 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.82 | +34.0pp | Won |
| Fujian -7 | 86.6% | 1.80 | 1.86 | 1.79 | 1.74 | - | - | +33.6pp | Won |
| Fujian -2.5 | 92.9% | 1.41 | 1.55 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | +33.5pp | Won |
| Fujian -6.5 | 86.9% | 1.78 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.68 | +32.2pp | Won |
| Fujian -6 | 88.4% | 1.78 | 1.95 | 1.86 | 1.67 | 1.63 | - | +32.0pp | Won |
| Fujian -2 | 93.7% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +31.1pp | Won |
| Fujian -5 | 90.1% | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.80 | 1.56 | 1.55 | - | +30.8pp | Won |
| Fujian -5.5 | 88.6% | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.62 | 1.62 | +30.5pp | Won |
| Fujian -1.5 | 93.7% | 1.35 | 1.39 | 1.32 | - | - | - | +30.1pp | Won |
| Fujian over 92 | 80.3% | 1.63 | 1.63 | - | - | - | - | +27.3pp | Lost |
| Fujian over 93 | 77.7% | 1.70 | 1.77 | 1.62 | - | - | - | +25.1pp | Lost |
| Fujian (regulation) | 93.2% | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.31 | - | - | - | +24.1pp | Won |
| Fujian over 92.5 | 78.3% | 1.65 | 1.76 | 1.54 | - | - | - | +24.1pp | Lost |
| Fujian over 93.5 | 75.7% | 1.74 | 1.83 | 1.76 | 1.63 | - | - | +23.4pp | Lost |
| Fujian over 95 | 72.0% | 1.83 | 1.87 | 1.78 | - | - | - | +23.3pp | Lost |
| Sichuan under 89 | 75.4% | 1.70 | 1.78 | 1.62 | - | - | - | +23.0pp | Won |
| Fujian over 94 | 74.9% | 1.71 | 1.76 | 1.67 | - | - | - | +23.0pp | Lost |
| Fujian over 94.5 | 72.8% | 1.81 | 1.86 | 1.85 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.72 | +22.8pp | Lost |
| Sichuan under 88.5 | 73.4% | 1.76 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.79 | 1.58 | - | +22.7pp | Won |
| Fujian win | 94.4% | 1.31 | 1.40 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.30 | 1.30 | +22.2pp | Won |
| Fujian over 91.5 | 80.8% | 1.46 | 1.46 | - | - | - | - | +21.4pp | Lost |
| Fujian over 90.5 | 83.1% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +20.8pp | Lost |
| Sichuan under 88 | 72.6% | 1.70 | 1.77 | 1.62 | - | - | - | +20.0pp | Won |
| Fujian over 89.5 | 85.2% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +19.8pp | Lost |
| Sichuan under 87.5 | 70.5% | 1.77 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.68 | - | +19.3pp | Won |
| Fujian over 88.5 | 87.2% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +18.9pp | Lost |
| Sichuan under 89.5 | 76.1% | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | - | +18.4pp | Won |
| Sichuan under 90.5 | 78.7% | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | - | - | +18.0pp | Won |
| Sichuan under 91.5 | 81.0% | 1.38 | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | +17.4pp | Won |
| Sichuan under 92.5 | 83.2% | 1.32 | 1.32 | - | - | - | - | +16.6pp | Won |
| Sichuan under 93.5 | 85.2% | 1.28 | 1.28 | - | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 98.2% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | - |
| Fujian +3 | 96.0% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Fujian +2.5 | 95.5% | 1.29 | 1.29 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Fujian +2 | 95.5% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Fujian +1.5 | 94.9% | 1.24 | 1.24 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Fujian +1 | 94.9% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
| Fujian -1 | 94.4% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | - | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 37.7 | 19.4 | 53.8% | 38.8 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 26.3 | 9.0 | 35.0% | 27.0 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.9 | 14.0 | 74.8% | 14.0 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 38.5 | 20.5 | 53.8% | 41.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 25.7 | 10.4 | 35.0% | 31.2 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 23.7 | 19.1 | 74.8% | 19.1 |
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 | Fujian v Sichuan | 118-82 |
| 01/01/26 | Sichuan v Fujian | 88-104 |
| 16/01/25 | Fujian v Sichuan | 121-117 |
| 05/01/25 | Sichuan v Fujian | 127-132 OT |
| 31/01/24 | Fujian v Sichuan | 115-109 |
| 08/11/23 | Sichuan v Fujian | 129-140 |
| 18/01/23 | Sichuan v Fujian | 105-122 |
| 29/12/22 | Fujian v Sichuan | 81-101 |
| 28/10/22 | Sichuan v Fujian | 102-93 |
| 11/11/21 | Sichuan v Fujian | 100-90 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/26 | A | Shanxi Zhongyu | 89-95 |
| 29/10/26 | A | Beijing Royal Fighters | 64-115 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Nanjing Tongxi | 81-91 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Zhejiang Chouzhou | 49-91 |
| 23/10/26 | A | Liaoning | 93-104 |
| 20/10/26 | A | Jilin | 91-88 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Tianjin | 97-85 |
| 24/04/26 | H | Zhejiang Chouzhou | 81-104 |
| 20/04/26 | A | Jiangsu Dragons | 85-101 |
| 17/04/26 | A | Beijing Royal Fighters | 71-93 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/26 | H | Qingdao | 95-86 |
| 29/10/26 | H | Shandong | 102-90 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Jiangsu Dragons | 78-88 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Shanghai | 89-94 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Ningbo Rockets | 95-76 |
| 20/10/26 | H | Zhejiang Guangsha | 94-99 |
| 17/10/26 | A | Jiangsu Dragons | 89-85 |
| 24/04/26 | H | Guangdong | 93-91 |
| 20/04/26 | A | Guangzhou | 94-101 |
| 18/04/26 | A | Guangdong | 95-83 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 29% |
| Home | WLL | 33% |
| Away | WLLL | 25% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Win % | 29% | 33% | 25% |
| Points / game | 80.6 | 75.7 | 84.2 |
| Allowed / game | 95.6 | 89.0 | 100.5 |
| Point differential | -15.0 | -13.3 | -16.2 |
| Avg total | 176.1 | 164.7 | 184.8 |
| Over 181.75 | 43% | 33% | 50% |
| Win by 10+ | 14% | 33% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLWW | 57% |
| Home | LWWW | 75% |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Win % | 57% | 75% | 33% |
| Points / game | 91.7 | 96.5 | 85.3 |
| Allowed / game | 88.3 | 87.8 | 89.0 |
| Point differential | +3.4 | +8.8 | -3.7 |
| Avg total | 180.0 | 184.2 | 174.3 |
| Over 181.75 | 43% | 50% | 33% |
| Win by 10+ | 29% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 33% (3) | 0% (1) | 50% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing | 7 | 7 | 0 | 100% | 105.6 | 78.4 | +27.1 |
| 2 | Shanghai | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 97.1 | 86.3 | +10.9 |
| 3 | Liaoning | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 96.6 | 87.0 | +9.6 |
| 4 | Beijing Royal Fighters | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 99.1 | 83.0 | +16.1 |
| 5 | Shanxi Zhongyu | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 101.0 | 90.9 | +10.1 |
| 6 | Zhejiang Chouzhou | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 82.7 | 74.1 | +8.6 |
| 7 | Fujian | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 91.7 | 88.3 | +3.4 |
| 8 | Guangzhou | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 91.0 | 94.4 | -3.4 |
| 9 | Zhejiang Guangsha | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 90.6 | 95.9 | -5.3 |
| 10 | Jilin | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 83.7 | 83.9 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Xinjiang | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 86.0 | 89.9 | -3.9 |
| 12 | Shenzhen | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 76.7 | 94.4 | -17.7 |
| 13 | Guangdong | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 88.6 | 90.4 | -1.8 |
| 14 | Qingdao | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 91.5 | 93.2 | -1.8 |
| 15 | Shandong | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 91.8 | 94.2 | -2.5 |
| 16 | Tianjin | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 92.7 | 95.0 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Nanjing Tongxi | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 87.4 | 97.3 | -9.9 |
| 18 | Sichuan | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 80.6 | 95.6 | -15.0 |
| 19 | Jiangsu Dragons | 7 | 1 | 6 | 14% | 79.6 | 86.0 | -6.4 |
| 20 | Ningbo Rockets | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0% | 77.9 | 95.1 | -17.3 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sichuan | 19 | 23 | 23 | 9 | 74 |
| Fujian | 14 | 20 | 32 | 16 | 82 |
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