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Stephen F. Austin vs Lyon Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 120-61
62-26 58-35
Position#15
Record-
FormLWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Stephen F. Austin 🏆
USA
Vs
99%
■ STEP 99%■ LYON 1%
Pythia win probability
Projected 85-57
Projected total 141.9
Lyon
USA
Position#428
Record-
FormLLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off
Stephen F. Austin host Lyon in the NCAA. Pythia makes Stephen F. Austin the favourite at 99% and projects 85-57, about 142 points in all. Overtime chance: 0%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Stephen F. Austin winWon
98.9%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Lyon winLost
1.1%fair 87.41
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Stephen F. AustinUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#286
W
84-74
84
74
+10
H07/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
W
74-70
74
70
+4
H10/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
W
66-57
66
57
+9
A14/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
78-68
78
68
+10
A17/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
81-78
81
78
+3
H21/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
73-77
73
77
-4
H24/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
77-56
77
56
+21
A28/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
W
76-68
76
68
+8
A03/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H10/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
59-76
59
76
-17
H11/03
NCAA
1H
2H
46-34
38-40
36-34
38-36
25-19
41-38
37-16
41-52
39-34
42-44
23-31
50-46
42-16
35-40
28-26
48-42
32-39
28-19
25-42
34-34
141.0Avg total
72.8Scored
68.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)72.868.2141.0+4.680%
Last 5 (5)69.067.0136.0+2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)63.367.3130.7-4.033%
vs Weaker (27)76.165.3141.5+10.889%
LyonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#101
L
66-88
66
88
-22
A21/12
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#187
L
46-83
46
83
-37
A12/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#278
L
58-82
58
82
-24
A15/11
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#54
L
43-100
43
100
-57
A14/11
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
35-93
35
93
-58
A09/11
NCAA
1H
2H
35-45
31-43
13-34
33-49
34-44
24-38
21-45
22-55
22-48
13-45
138.8Avg total
49.6Scored
89.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (5)49.689.2138.8-39.60%
Last 5 (5)49.689.2138.8-39.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)52.082.5134.5-30.50%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
Over/Under 142Actual: Over 142
Over 142
49.7%
Under 142
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 147Actual: Over 147
Over 147
37.2%
Under 147
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 152Actual: Over 152
Over 152
25.9%
Under 152
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Stephen F. Austin total 73Actual: Stephen F. Austin over 73
Over 73
89.5%
Under 73
10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stephen F. Austin total 77Actual: Stephen F. Austin over 77
Over 77
80.0%
Under 77
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stephen F. Austin total 81Actual: Stephen F. Austin over 81
Over 81
66.4%
Under 81
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon total 66Actual: Lyon under 66
Over 66
17.1%
Under 66
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon total 70Actual: Lyon under 70
Over 70
8.8%
Under 70
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon total 74Actual: Lyon under 74
Over 74
4.0%
Under 74
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Stephen F. Austin -3Actual: Stephen F. Austin -3
STEP -3
98.3%
LYON +3
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
STEP
No market prices yet.
LYON
No market prices yet.
Spread Stephen F. Austin 0Actual: Stephen F. Austin 0
STEP 0
98.9%
LYON 0
1.1%
Best 5 market prices
STEP
No market prices yet.
LYON
No market prices yet.
Spread Stephen F. Austin +3Actual: Stephen F. Austin +3
STEP +3
99.3%
LYON -3
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
STEP
No market prices yet.
LYON
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-27-13+0+13+271st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: -18.2-18.22nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: -21.4-21.4
-27-13+0+13+271st half1st half: +4.2+4.21st half: -18.2-18.22nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: -21.4-21.4
Stephen F. AustinLyon
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Stephen F. AustinLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lamar
#286
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H07/02
NCAA
East Texas A&M
#316
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H10/02
NCAA
UTRGV
#137
W
25-19
25
19
+6
A14/02
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
W
37-16
37
16
+21
A17/02
NCAA
Nicholls State
#265
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H21/02
NCAA
New Orleans
#226
L
23-31
23
31
-8
H24/02
NCAA
Houston Christian
#297
W
42-16
42
16
+26
A28/02
NCAA
Incarnate Word
#287
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A03/03
NCAA
Texas A&M-CC
#163
L
32-39
32
39
-7
H10/03
NCAA
McNeese State
#15
L
25-42
25
42
-17
H11/03
NCAA
62.4Avg total
33.3Scored
29.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.229.866.0+6.480%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.930.466.4+5.575%-
Last 30 away (14)36.529.065.5+7.586%-
Last 10 (10)33.329.162.4+4.270%-
Last 5 (5)30.030.860.8-0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)31.331.763.0-0.367%-
vs Weaker (27)36.729.666.3+7.281%-
LyonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#101
L
35-45
35
45
-10
A21/12
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#187
L
13-34
13
34
-21
A12/11
NCAA
Arkansas State
#278
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A15/11
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#54
L
21-45
21
45
-24
A14/11
NCAA
Louisiana Tech
#131
L
22-48
22
48
-26
A09/11
NCAA
68.2Avg total
25.0Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (5)25.043.268.2-18.20%-
Last 30 at homeno games
Last 30 away (5)25.043.268.2-18.20%-
Last 10 (5)25.043.268.2-18.20%-
Last 5 (5)25.043.268.2-18.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)23.539.062.5-15.50%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Stephen F. Austin wins
0
Lyon wins
No previous meetings.
Stephen F. Austinlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HMcNeese State59-76
10/03/26HTexas A&M-CC60-58
03/03/26AIncarnate Word76-68
28/02/26AHouston Christian77-56
24/02/26HNew Orleans73-77
21/02/26HNicholls State81-78
17/02/26ATexas A&M-CC78-68
14/02/26AUTRGV66-57
10/02/26HEast Texas A&M74-70
07/02/26HLamar84-74
Lyonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/11/25ALouisiana Tech35-93
14/11/23ALouisiana Tech43-100
15/11/22AArkansas State58-82
12/11/22ASoutheast Missouri State46-83
21/12/21AArkansas State66-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Stephen F. Austin
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Lyon
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 5 Losses (last 5)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 West Florida Argonauts110100%127.042.0+85.0
2 Sacred Heart110100%111.044.0+67.0
3 UMass Lowell110100%121.057.0+64.0
4 Delaware110100%105.044.0+61.0
5 Kennesaw State110100%116.057.0+59.0
6 Nicholls State110100%110.056.0+54.0
7 Siu Edwardsville110100%91.039.0+52.0
8 Eastern Kentucky110100%105.054.0+51.0
9 Morgan State110100%103.052.0+51.0
10 Stony Brook110100%97.047.0+50.0
11 Illinois (Chi.)110100%96.047.0+49.0
12 Hofstra110100%97.051.0+46.0
13 Vanderbilt110100%93.047.0+46.0
14 Rice110100%100.055.0+45.0
15 West Virginia110100%91.046.0+45.0
16 Xavier110100%97.052.0+45.0
17 Jacksonville Dolphins110100%105.061.0+44.0
18 Middle Tenn. St.110100%117.073.0+44.0
19 Florida International110100%101.058.0+43.0
20 South Carolina St110100%94.055.0+39.0
21 Pittsburgh110100%95.057.0+38.0
22 South Dakota Coyotes110100%95.057.0+38.0
23 IU Indy110100%113.076.0+37.0
24 Mercer110100%90.053.0+37.0
25 Michigan State110100%96.059.0+37.0
26 Butler110100%96.060.0+36.0
27 NC Wilmington110100%101.065.0+36.0
28 Delaware State110100%86.052.0+34.0
29 Duke110100%84.050.0+34.0
30 Indiana110100%91.057.0+34.0
31 Texas Tech110100%76.042.0+34.0
32 Princeton110100%78.046.0+32.0
33 VMI110100%115.083.0+32.0
34 Dayton110100%89.058.0+31.0
35 Wright State110100%102.071.0+31.0
36 Murray State110100%94.064.0+30.0
37 Maryland110100%96.067.0+29.0
38 George Mason110100%82.054.0+28.0
39 Harvard110100%73.045.0+28.0
40 Stonehill110100%84.056.0+28.0
41 Marshall110100%92.065.0+27.0
42 Providence110100%83.056.0+27.0
43 South Florida110100%98.071.0+27.0
44 Cincinnati110100%79.053.0+26.0
45 Richmond Spiders110100%100.077.0+23.0
46 Georgetown110100%80.058.0+22.0
47 McNeese State110100%99.078.0+21.0
48 Prairie View A&M110100%86.065.0+21.0
49 San Jose State110100%95.074.0+21.0
50 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
51 Syracuse110100%74.058.0+16.0
52 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
53 St. John's (N.Y.)110100%78.063.0+15.0
54 Florida Atlantic110100%74.060.0+14.0
55 Merrimack Warriors110100%63.049.0+14.0
56 William & Mary110100%80.066.0+14.0
57 Clemson110100%85.072.0+13.0
58 East Carolina110100%83.070.0+13.0
59 Elon110100%84.071.0+13.0
60 Georgia Southern110100%67.055.0+12.0
61 Old Dominion110100%61.049.0+12.0
62 Temple110100%68.056.0+12.0
63 UMass110100%71.060.0+11.0
64 Florida110100%77.067.0+10.0
65 VCU Rams110100%82.072.0+10.0
66 Yale110100%72.062.0+10.0
67 Miami (Ohio)110100%86.077.0+9.0
68 St. Thomas (Minn.)110100%87.078.0+9.0
69 Boston University110100%93.085.0+8.0
70 Charlotte110100%78.070.0+8.0
71 North Carolina110100%80.072.0+8.0
72 Northern Kentucky110100%84.076.0+8.0
73 Youngstown State110100%79.071.0+8.0
74 Albany Great Danes110100%74.067.0+7.0
75 Dartmouth110100%69.062.0+7.0
76 Queens Royals110100%103.098.0+5.0
77 Memphis110100%80.076.0+4.0
78 New Hampshire Wildcats110100%59.055.0+4.0
79 Bowling Green110100%76.073.0+3.0
80 Grambling St.110100%89.087.0+2.0
81 Notre Dame110100%74.072.0+2.0
82 Cornell110100%86.085.0+1.0
83 Eastern Michigan110100%71.070.0+1.0
84 Iona110100%56.055.0+1.0
85 UCF Knights110100%96.095.0+1.0
86 Coastal Carolina1010%70.071.0-1.0
87 Florida Gulf Coast1010%95.096.0-1.0
88 Pepperdine1010%85.086.0-1.0
89 Vermont1010%55.056.0-1.0
90 Northern Illinois1010%87.089.0-2.0
91 Villanova1010%72.074.0-2.0
92 Georgia State1010%73.076.0-3.0
93 Brown1010%55.059.0-4.0
94 Iowa State1010%76.080.0-4.0
95 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
96 Marist1010%62.069.0-7.0
97 Rhode Island Anchormen1010%67.074.0-7.0
98 Indiana State1010%70.078.0-8.0
99 Northeastern1010%85.093.0-8.0
100 St. Bonaventure1010%71.079.0-8.0
101 UTEP1010%76.084.0-8.0
102 Western Carolina1010%72.080.0-8.0
103 James Madison1010%77.086.0-9.0
104 Presbyterian1010%78.087.0-9.0
105 Howard1010%62.072.0-10.0
106 Miami (FL)1010%67.077.0-10.0
107 UALR1010%72.082.0-10.0
108 Troy1010%60.071.0-11.0
109 Ball State1010%55.067.0-12.0
110 Central Connecticut State1010%56.068.0-12.0
111 Western Michigan1010%49.061.0-12.0
112 Columbia1010%71.084.0-13.0
113 Stetson1010%72.085.0-13.0
114 USC Upstate1010%70.083.0-13.0
115 Appalachian State1010%49.063.0-14.0
116 Bridgewater College (VA)1010%66.080.0-14.0
117 LIU Sharks1010%60.074.0-14.0
118 Liberty1010%57.072.0-15.0
119 Monmouth1010%63.078.0-15.0
120 New Haven Chargers1010%58.074.0-16.0
121 Oakland1010%68.084.0-16.0
122 Paul Quinn1010%65.086.0-21.0
123 UAB1010%78.099.0-21.0
124 UTSA Roadrunners1010%74.095.0-21.0
125 Loyola Maryland1010%58.080.0-22.0
126 UNC Asheville1010%77.0100.0-23.0
127 American University1010%53.079.0-26.0
128 Buffalo1010%65.092.0-27.0
129 Charleston Southern1010%71.098.0-27.0
130 Maine Black Bears1010%56.083.0-27.0
131 Curry1010%56.084.0-28.0
132 MIT1010%45.073.0-28.0
133 UMBC Retrievers1010%54.082.0-28.0
134 Bucknell1010%67.096.0-29.0
135 Tennessee State1010%64.094.0-30.0
136 Air Force1010%71.0102.0-31.0
137 NJIT1010%58.089.0-31.0
138 Carnegie Mellon1010%46.078.0-32.0
139 Virginia-Lynchburg1010%83.0115.0-32.0
140 Army1010%50.084.0-34.0
141 Eastern Illinois1010%57.091.0-34.0
142 Jackson State1010%42.076.0-34.0
143 St. Vincent1010%52.086.0-34.0
144 Lafayette1010%60.096.0-36.0
145 Mount Olive Trojans1010%65.0101.0-36.0
146 Miami (OH) - Middletown1010%76.0113.0-37.0
147 Quinnipiac1010%59.096.0-37.0
148 Reinhardt1010%53.090.0-37.0
149 Mount Marty1010%57.095.0-38.0
150 Rider1010%57.095.0-38.0
151 Morris College1010%55.094.0-39.0
152 New College (FL)1010%58.0101.0-43.0
153 Fisk1010%73.0117.0-44.0
154 Trinity Baptist1010%61.0105.0-44.0
155 Dallas Christian1010%55.0100.0-45.0
156 Mount St. Mary's1010%52.097.0-45.0
157 Niagara1010%46.091.0-45.0
158 Bellarmine1010%47.093.0-46.0
159 St. Joseph's (Brooklyn)1010%51.097.0-46.0
160 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
161 Old Westbury1010%47.097.0-50.0
162 Cheyney Wolves1010%52.0103.0-51.0
163 Kentucky Christian1010%54.0105.0-51.0
164 Eureka1010%39.091.0-52.0
165 North American Stallions1010%56.0110.0-54.0
166 Midway1010%57.0116.0-59.0
167 Notre Dame MD1010%44.0105.0-61.0
168 Rivier1010%57.0121.0-64.0
169 Coast Guard1010%44.0111.0-67.0
170 Southeastern Baptist College1010%42.0127.0-85.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 170 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Stephen F. Austin6258120
Lyon263561
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