PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Team FOG Naestved vs Gladsaxe Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 17 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 18:00
Projected 104-75
Projected total 179.2
Scheduled
Position#1
Record10-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game99.0
Allowed / game72.6
Team FOG Naestved
Denmark
Vs
99%
■ TEAM 99%■ GLAD 1%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
5.5/10
Above normal
4.4/10
Below normal
Gladsaxe
Denmark
Position#9
Record3-7
FormWLLLW
Points / game79.4
Allowed / game88.9
DenmarkBasketligaen· Arena Naestved
Other2026-27
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Team FOG Naestved will host Gladsaxe on 17 November 2026 in the Basketligaen, and the Pythia model names Naestved as the clear favourite with a 99% chance of winning, a reflection of their 10-1 record, 99.0 points per game and 72.6 allowed per game, the best in the league. Naestved has gone undefeated at home, 5-0, scoring 97.2 points and allowing 72.4, while Gladsaxe has struggled on the road, 2-2, with 86.5 points and 91.0 allowed, and a 3-7 overall record. Naestved's last five games included a narrow loss to Randers 84-98 away but otherwise four wins, including a 95-62 victory over Vaerlose and a 80-77 win at home over Bakken Bears. Gladsaxe's recent five feature two wins, one over Bears Academy 90-85 at home, and three losses, including an 81-84 defeat to Holbaek-Stenhus and a 80-110 loss to Randers. In their only prior meeting, Naestved prevailed 99-67 on 24 October. Pythia projects a 104-75 score, 179.2 total points, and a 99% probability that Naestved will cover the home line, with a 0% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Naestved's dominant offense overpower Gladsaxe's weaker defence.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Team FOG Naestved win
99.0%fair 1.01
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Gladsaxe win
1.0%fair 96.80
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 08 Nov 07:34 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Team FOG NaestvedDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNaestved
Date
Competition
Horsens
#3
W
101-73
101
73
+28
88avg 93
A27/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
W
90-66
90
66
+24
91avg 93
H30/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
117-55
117
55
+62
123avg 93
A10/10
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
W
86-83
86
83
+3
79avg 93
H15/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
W
107-82
107
82
+25
103avg 93
A19/10
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
W
99-67
99
67
+32
96avg 93
A24/10
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
113-80
113
80
+33
113avg 93
H28/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
95-62
95
62
+33
no box
A04/11
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
W
80-77
80
77
+3
no box
H08/11
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
84-98
84
98
-14
no box
A12/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-15
28-21
24-15
18-22
25-12
24-12
18-24
23-18
27-17
35-12
30-11
25-15
28-18
22-16
15-21
21-28
22-20
26-23
31-15
28-24
19-16
27-12
30-14
23-25
35-15
21-20
25-26
32-19
16-22
21-8
27-14
31-18
20-19
21-19
17-24
22-15
25-24
19-23
14-28
26-23
171.5Avg total
97.2Scored
74.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)99.072.6171.6+26.491%
Season at home (5)97.272.4169.6+24.8100%
Season away (6)100.572.8173.3+27.783%
Last 10 (10)97.274.3171.5+22.990%
Last 5 (5)94.276.8171.0+17.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)81.896.3178.2-14.517%
vs Similar (9)91.889.7181.4+2.178%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)100.579.4179.9+21.187%
This opponent (Gladsaxe) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GladsaxeDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGladsaxe
Date
Competition
Vaerlose
#10
L
78-88
78
88
-10
69avg 69
H19/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
102-70
102
70
+32
105avg 69
A23/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
L
62-77
62
77
-15
42avg 69
H26/09
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
75-112
75
112
-37
64avg 69
A30/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
70-92
70
92
-22
62avg 69
H07/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
W
89-72
89
72
+17
87avg 69
A16/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
67-99
67
99
-32
51avg 69
H24/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
80-110
80
110
-30
73avg 69
A30/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H04/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
90-85
90
85
+5
no box
H07/11
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-24
11-18
28-17
16-29
21-22
33-10
21-13
27-25
17-21
13-23
16-13
16-20
19-29
16-32
20-26
20-25
23-27
12-22
22-20
13-23
18-24
25-19
23-12
23-17
16-19
12-27
14-30
25-23
16-30
17-27
27-17
20-36
18-24
24-19
19-21
20-20
35-16
21-27
16-16
18-26
168.3Avg total
79.4Scored
88.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)79.488.9168.3-9.530%
Season at home (6)74.787.5162.2-12.817%
Season away (4)86.591.0177.5-4.550%
Last 10 (10)79.488.9168.3-9.530%
Last 5 (5)81.490.0171.4-8.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)70.898.0168.8-27.20%
vs Similar (2)85.078.0163.0+7.050%
vs Weaker (3)90.081.0171.0+9.067%
This opponent (Team FOG Naestved) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
78.5%
Under 166.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171.5
Over 171.5
68.4%
Under 171.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 176.5
Over 176.5
56.6%
Under 176.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Team FOG Naestved total 82
Over 82
98.8%
Under 82
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Team FOG Naestved total 86
Over 86
96.8%
Under 86
3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Team FOG Naestved total 90
Over 90
92.6%
Under 90
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gladsaxe total 81.5
Over 81.5
26.3%
Under 81.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gladsaxe total 85.5
Over 85.5
15.0%
Under 85.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gladsaxe total 89.5
Over 89.5
7.6%
Under 89.5
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Team FOG Naestved -3
TEAM -3
98.5%
GLAD +3
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
TEAM
No market prices yet.
GLAD
No market prices yet.
Spread Team FOG Naestved 0
TEAM 0
99.0%
GLAD 0
1.0%
Best 5 market prices
TEAM
No market prices yet.
GLAD
No market prices yet.
Spread Team FOG Naestved +3
TEAM +3
99.4%
GLAD -3
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
TEAM
No market prices yet.
GLAD
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +7.0+7.0Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +7.8+7.8Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -4.6-4.6
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +7.0+7.0Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +7.8+7.8Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +3.9+3.9Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -4.6-4.6
Team FOG NaestvedGladsaxe
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Team FOG NaestvedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Horsens
#3
W
59-36
59
36
+23
A27/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
W
49-24
49
24
+25
H30/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
62-29
62
29
+33
A10/10
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
W
50-34
50
34
+16
H15/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A19/10
Basketligaen
Gladsaxe
#9
W
46-28
46
28
+18
A24/10
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
56-35
56
35
+21
H28/10
Basketligaen
Vaerlose
#10
W
37-30
37
30
+7
A04/11
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H08/11
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A12/11
Basketligaen
83.6Avg total
49.2Scored
34.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.542.989.5+3.657%-
Last 30 at home (15)47.543.190.5+4.460%-
Last 30 away (15)45.642.888.4+2.853%-
Last 10 (10)49.234.483.6+14.890%-
Last 5 (5)44.835.680.4+9.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)39.749.889.5-10.217%-
vs Similar (9)43.847.691.3-3.844%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)50.937.488.3+13.580%-
This opponent (Gladsaxe) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
GladsaxeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vaerlose
#10
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H19/09
Basketligaen
BMS Herlev
#12
W
54-32
54
32
+22
A23/09
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#6
L
30-44
30
44
-14
H26/09
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#2
L
35-61
35
61
-26
A30/09
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#4
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H07/10
Basketligaen
Vejen
#8
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A16/10
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#1
L
28-46
28
46
-18
H24/10
Basketligaen
Randers
#5
L
33-57
33
57
-24
A30/10
Basketligaen
Holbaek-Stenhus
#7
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H04/11
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#11
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H07/11
Basketligaen
85.0Avg total
39.0Scored
46.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (10)39.046.085.0-7.020%-
Last 30 at home (6)37.544.582.0-7.017%-
Last 30 away (4)41.248.289.5-7.025%-
Last 10 (10)39.046.085.0-7.020%-
Last 5 (5)40.446.486.8-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)32.251.483.6-19.20%-
vs Similar (2)42.543.085.5-0.50%-
vs Weaker (3)48.039.087.0+9.067%-
This opponent (Team FOG Naestved) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Team FOG Naestvedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Team FOG Naestved: 99.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀21%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.130.1
61.3%
55.2%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.37.1
28.1%
31.2%21.3
🏀 Free throws25.117.9
71.3%
68.0%17.9
They take 74.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Gladsaxetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gladsaxe: 77.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game
52%
31%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.520.0
51.9%
55.2%40.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.58.0
25.4%
31.2%24.0
🏀 Free throws21.413.9
64.9%
68.0%13.9
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/8 games with a box score before 17 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Team FOG Naestved
LWWWWWWWWW
Gladsaxe
WLLLWLLLWL
#1
League position
#9
+25.3
Net rating
-12.4
100.9
Offensive rating
79.7
75.6
Defensive rating
92.1
54.8%
Effective FG%
45.7%
45.8%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
14.3%
Turnover %
19.0%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.31
28.1%
3-point %
25.4%
57.3%
Assist %
71.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence100.9 · 79.7Defence75.6 · 92.1Shooting54.8% · 45.7%3-point %28.1% · 25.4%Ball care14.3% · 19.0%Free throws0.34 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)90% · 30%
■ Team FOG Naestved   ■ Gladsaxe
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Team FOG Naestved wins
0
Gladsaxe wins
DateGameScore
24/10/26Gladsaxe v Team FOG Naestved67-99
Team FOG Naestvedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26ARanders84-98
08/11/26HBakken Bears80-77
04/11/26AVaerlose95-62
28/10/26HBears Academy113-80
24/10/26AGladsaxe99-67
19/10/26AVejen107-82
15/10/26HSvendborg86-83
10/10/26ABMS Herlev117-55
30/09/26HCopenhagen90-66
27/09/26AHorsens101-73
Gladsaxelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HBears Academy90-85
04/11/26HHolbaek-Stenhus81-84
30/10/26ARanders80-110
24/10/26HTeam FOG Naestved67-99
16/10/26AVejen89-72
07/10/26HSvendborg70-92
30/09/26ABakken Bears75-112
26/09/26HCopenhagen62-77
23/09/26ABMS Herlev102-70
19/09/26HVaerlose78-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Team FOG Naestved
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL91%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayWWWWL83%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %91%100%83%
Points / game99.097.2100.5
Allowed / game72.672.472.8
Point differential+26.4+24.8+27.7
Avg total171.6169.6173.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+73%60%83%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Gladsaxe
Basketligaen 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW30%
HomeLLLLW17%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %30%17%50%
Points / game79.474.786.5
Allowed / game88.987.591.0
Point differential-9.5-12.8-4.5
Avg total168.3162.2177.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Team FOG Naestved1110191%99.072.6+26.4
2 Bakken Bears87188%102.076.6+25.4
3 Horsens108280%89.277.6+11.6
4 Svendborg108280%90.679.7+10.9
5 Randers107370%95.686.0+9.6
6 Copenhagen95456%84.081.6+2.4
7 Holbaek-Stenhus104640%77.187.4-10.3
8 Vejen93633%80.993.6-12.7
9 Gladsaxe103730%79.488.9-9.5
10 Vaerlose102820%78.091.7-13.7
11 Bears Academy101910%78.892.6-13.8
12 BMS Herlev111109%74.497.0-22.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.