Texas A&M will host Alabama State in the NCAA on 3 November 2026, with the Pythia model designating Texas A&M as the clear favourite, assigning it a 94% chance of victory versus Alabama State's 6% chance, a disparity that reflects the former's dominant season performance and the latter's recent struggles. Texas A&M is projected to outscore Alabama State 85-67, a margin that yields a projected total of 152.4 points, and the model gives a 2% probability that the game will go into overtime. The home team's spread line is not listed, but the model's confidence in a Texas A&M win is overwhelming. Alabama State's last five outings have yielded only one win, with losses to Alcorn State, Grambling St. and Southern Univ. in consecutive home games, while Texas A&M's recent results include a loss to Houston, a win over St. Marys (CA) and a home defeat to Oklahoma, yet the overall odds still favour the Aggies. The game will be played at Texas A&M's home venue, where the team has historically performed strongly.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Texas A&M winWon
93.5%fair 1.07
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Alabama State winLost
6.5%fair 15.46
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Texas A&M) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158Actual: Over 158
Over 158
36.0%
@ 1.68-19.4pp
Under 158
64.0%
@ 2.62+19.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Pinnacle
2.09
Over/Under 163 · main linePush
Over 163
25.1%
@ 1.88-24.5pp
Under 163
74.9%
@ 1.95+24.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Over/Under 168Actual: Under 168
Over 168
16.2%
@ 2.50-21.3pp
Under 168
83.8%
@ 1.50+21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Under
Bet365
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Texas A&M total 91Actual: Texas A&M over 91
Over 91
26.5%
Under 91
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas A&M total 95 · main lineActual: Texas A&M over 95
Over 95
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 95
no forecast
@ 1.87
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Texas A&M total 98.5Actual: Texas A&M under 98.5
Over 98.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under 98.5
no forecast
@ 1.81
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
Alabama State total 63.5Actual: Alabama State over 63.5
Over 63.5
64.8%
@ 1.80+8.5pp
Under 63.5
35.2%
@ 2.13-8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
1.91
Alabama State total 67.5 · main lineActual: Alabama State under 67.5
Over 67.5
49.2%
@ 2.55-0.3pp
Under 67.5
50.8%
@ 1.85+0.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
1xBet
2.38
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.53
Alabama State total 71.5Actual: Alabama State under 71.5
Over 71.5
33.7%
@ 4.20+7.4pp
Under 71.5
66.3%
@ 1.39-7.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.20
1xBet
3.50
Betano
2.60
Under
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.20
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Texas A&M -32.5Actual: Alabama State +32.5
TEXA -32.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
ALAB +32.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
ALAB
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Spread Texas A&M -29.5 · main lineActual: Texas A&M -29.5
TEXA -29.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
ALAB +29.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
2.05
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.69
Bet365
1.58
ALAB
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.67
Spread Texas A&M -26.5Actual: Texas A&M -26.5
TEXA -26.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
ALAB +26.5
no forecast
@ 2.80
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.75
Marathon Be
1.69
Bet365
1.38
ALAB
Bet365
2.80
Betano
2.05
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Texas A&MAlabama State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Alabama State +25
75.1%
3.35
Bet365
3.35
-
-
-
-
+47.4pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 90.5
71.0%
3.07
Bet365
3.30
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.72
-
-
+42.1pp
Lost
Texas A&M under 91.5
74.4%
2.83
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
+41.7pp
Lost
Alabama State +24.5
73.0%
2.88
Bet365
3.45
Betano
2.30
-
-
-
+39.5pp
Lost
Alabama State +24
72.1%
2.35
Bet365
2.35
-
-
-
-
+32.5pp
Lost
Under 166
80.5%
1.67
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
+25.3pp
Won
Under 161
70.8%
1.98
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.92
SBO
1.82
-
+25.1pp
Lost
Under 162
72.9%
1.97
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
+24.8pp
Lost
Under 163
74.9%
1.89
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.92
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
+24.5pp
Push
Under 161.5
71.4%
1.90
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Betano
1.88
+24.3pp
Lost
Under 162.5
73.5%
1.89
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.96
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.88
+24.3pp
Lost
Under 164
76.9%
1.79
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
-
+24.0pp
Won
Under 163.5
75.4%
1.84
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.83
+23.7pp
Won
Under 165
78.8%
1.70
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.71
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathon Bet
1.67
-
+23.6pp
Won
Under 165.5
79.1%
1.67
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.63
Betano
1.62
-
+23.3pp
Won
Under 164.5
77.3%
1.73
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
+23.2pp
Won
Under 167
82.2%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
80.9%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
-
+22.2pp
Won
Under 167.5
82.5%
1.52
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+21.5pp
Won
Under 168
83.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Under 169
85.2%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Under 168.5
84.0%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Under 170
86.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+19.6pp
Won
Under 169.5
85.4%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+19.3pp
Won
Under 170.5
86.8%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+18.7pp
Won
Under 171
87.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Under 171.5
88.0%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
Under 172.5
89.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Under 176.5
93.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.7pp
Won
Alabama State over 61.5
72.0%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
1xBet
1.44
-
-
-
+8.0pp
Won
Alabama State over 59.5
78.3%
1.30
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Alabama State over 57.5
83.7%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Alabama State over 58.5
81.1%
1.21
1xBet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Alabama State over 55.5
88.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Alabama State over 56.5
86.1%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Alabama State under 82.5
93.0%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Alabama State under 84.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Texas A&M (regulation)
92.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Alabama State under 80.5
90.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Alabama State under 76.5
81.9%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Alabama State under 78.5
86.5%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Alabama State under 81.5
91.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Alabama State over 60.5
75.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Won
Alabama State under 79.5
88.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Alabama State under 77.5
84.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Texas A&M over 74.5
85.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.0pp
Won
Alabama State under 74.5
76.3%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Alabama State under 75.5
79.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Won
Over 136.5
83.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Alabama State under 73.5
73.2%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-9.1pp
Won
Texas A&M over 75.5
83.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
Over 137.5
82.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-10.1pp
Won
Texas A&M over 76.5
80.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-13.0pp
Won
Over 141.5
75.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-14.4pp
Won
Texas A&M over 77.5
77.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-15.9pp
Won
Over 142.5
72.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-16.4pp
Won
Texas A&M over 78.5
74.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-16.8pp
Won
Texas A&M over 79.5
71.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-20.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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