Texas faces Gardner Webb on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Texas the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because of their 1-0 record, 109.0 points per game and 59.0 allowed per game, the best in the competition, while Gardner Webb sits 0-1 with 46.0 points per game and 86.0 allowed per game. Texas has won 1 of 1 games overall, 1-0 at home, and has a 4-1 record in the last five games, including a 109-59 victory over Chicago State at home on 2 November 2026; Gardner Webb is 0-1 overall, 0-1 on the road, and 1-4 in the last five games, with a 65-64 win over USC Upstate on 4 March 2026. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 95-63 score, a 158.0 total, and gives Texas a 99% chance to win, while Gardner Webb has 1%. The home line is 153.5, with a 61% probability of the over, and the game is not expected to go into overtime. The projected score of 95-63 reflects Texas's dominant offensive output and Gardner Webb's defensive struggles.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Texas winWon
99.5%fair 1.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Gardner Webb winLost
0.5%fair 188.14
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Texas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Under 148.5
Over 148.5
72.3%
@ 1.45+8.2pp
Under 148.5
27.7%
@ 2.60-8.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Under 153.5
Over 153.5
61.0%
@ 1.90+10.0pp
Under 153.5
39.0%
@ 1.95-10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
48.7%
@ 2.60+11.2pp
Under 158.5
51.3%
@ 1.65-11.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.35
Under
Marathon Be
1.65
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.45
📊 3. Team Totals
Texas total 92Actual: Texas over 92
Over 92
63.5%
Under 92
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Texas total 96 · main lineActual: Texas over 96
Over 96
46.9%
@ 1.85-3.1pp
Under 96
53.1%
@ 1.85+3.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Texas total 99.5Actual: Texas under 99.5
Over 99.5
33.5%
@ 2.55-13.9pp
Under 99.5
66.5%
@ 1.79+13.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
Gardner Webb total 53Actual: Gardner Webb under 53
Over 53
84.4%
Under 53
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gardner Webb total 57 · main lineActual: Gardner Webb under 57
Over 57
72.5%
@ 1.85+22.5pp
Under 57
27.5%
@ 1.85-22.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.85
Gardner Webb total 61Actual: Gardner Webb under 61
Over 61
57.1%
Under 61
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Texas -41.5Actual: Texas -41.5
TEXA -41.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
GARD +41.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
GARD
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Spread Texas -38.5 · main lineActual: Texas -38.5
TEXA -38.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
GARD +38.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
GARD
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Spread Texas -35.5Actual: Texas -35.5
TEXA -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
GARD +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.32
Best 5 market prices
TEXA
Bet365
1.60
Betano
1.53
GARD
Betano
2.32
Bet365
2.20
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
TexasGardner Webb
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Gardner Webb over 56
75.8%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.86
-
-
-
-
+26.1pp
Lost
Gardner Webb over 56.5
73.4%
1.88
Pinnacle
1.97
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
+25.4pp
Lost
Gardner Webb over 55.5
76.6%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.82
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+24.7pp
Lost
Gardner Webb over 57
72.5%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Lost
Gardner Webb over 53.5
82.3%
1.43
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
+17.5pp
Lost
Gardner Webb over 54.5
79.6%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+15.7pp
Lost
Over 149
71.7%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Lost
Over 148
73.8%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Push
Over 147
75.8%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
Over 149.5
70.2%
1.51
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+8.8pp
Lost
Over 148.5
72.3%
1.44
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
Over 147.5
74.4%
1.39
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 146
77.8%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Over 146.5
76.3%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Won
Over 145.5
78.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Over 143.5
81.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Texas over 76.5
97.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 133.5
93.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Over 128.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Texas over 75.5
97.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Over 138.5
88.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Texas over 78.5
95.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Won
Texas over 79.5
94.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Texas over 77.5
96.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Won
Texas over 80.5
93.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Texas over 81.5
91.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Texas over 82.5
90.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Texas over 89.5
72.0%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Texas over 83.5
88.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Texas over 84.5
86.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Texas over 86.5
81.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
Texas over 85.5
83.8%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Under 178.5
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Texas over 87.5
78.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Texas over 88.5
75.3%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-3.8pp
Won
Texas -18.5
88.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Under 173.5
83.4%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Won
Gardner Webb under 72.5
83.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.0pp
Won
Texas -23.5
78.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Under 168.5
74.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-10.6pp
Won
Gardner Webb under 70.5
78.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.3pp
Won
Gardner Webb under 68.5
72.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-16.6pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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