UAB hosts Nicholls State on 6 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UAB the clear favourite, assigning it an 83% chance to win, driven by its 0-1 record and an average of 78.0 points scored against 99.0 allowed, the lowest offensive output in the league. Nicholls State, with a 1-0 record and 110.0 points per game while allowing 56.0, has a 17% chance of victory. UAB's single game shows a 78-99 loss to McNeese State away, a 78-83 defeat at home to Charlotte, and a 90-83 win over East Carolina, while Nicholls State's lone outing was a 110-56 win at home over North American Stallions, a 68-86 loss to UTRGV away, and a 61-47 home victory over Northwestern St. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. The model projects a 84-74 score, 157.7 total points, and gives UAB a 33% probability of covering the home line of -15.5; the over on the 156.0 line has a 54% chance. With a 3% overtime probability, the game is expected to finish within regulation.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UAB winWon
82.6%fair 1.21
Best odds1.07
Implied91.0%
Edge-8.4pp
Nicholls State winLost
17.4%fair 5.76
Best odds11.00
Implied9.0%
Edge+8.4pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 05 Nov 07:14 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UAB) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 151Actual: Under 151
Over 151
65.8%
@ 1.50+3.3pp
Under 151
34.2%
@ 2.50-3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
Over/Under 156 · main lineActual: Under 156
Over 156
53.7%
@ 1.95+3.7pp
Under 156
46.3%
@ 1.90-3.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161
Over 161
41.3%
@ 2.62+5.8pp
Under 161
58.7%
@ 1.44-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.44
📊 3. Team Totals
UAB total 81Actual: UAB under 81
Over 81
63.1%
Under 81
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UAB total 85 · main lineActual: UAB under 85
Over 85
46.7%
@ 1.85-3.6pp
Under 85
53.3%
@ 1.87+3.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
UAB total 89Actual: UAB under 89
Over 89
30.8%
Under 89
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nicholls State total 66Actual: Nicholls State under 66
Over 66
77.5%
Under 66
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nicholls State total 70 · main lineActual: Nicholls State under 70
Over 70
63.4%
@ 1.85+13.3pp
Under 70
36.6%
@ 1.86-13.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Nicholls State total 74Actual: Nicholls State under 74
Over 74
47.3%
Under 74
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UAB -18.5Actual: Nicholls State +18.5
UAB -18.5
24.3%
@ 3.10-10.0pp
NICH +18.5
75.7%
@ 1.50+10.0pp
Best 5 market prices
UAB
Bet365
3.10
Betano
2.40
NICH
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.33
Spread UAB -15.5 · main lineActual: Nicholls State +15.5
UAB -15.5
33.2%
@ 2.35-16.8pp
NICH +15.5
66.8%
@ 1.92+16.8pp
Best 5 market prices
UAB
Bet365
2.35
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.83
NICH
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Spread UAB -12.5Actual: Nicholls State +12.5
UAB -12.5
43.4%
@ 1.92-9.3pp
NICH +12.5
56.6%
@ 2.30+9.3pp
Best 5 market prices
UAB
SBO
1.92
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.73
Bet365
1.71
Betano
1.60
NICH
Betano
2.30
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Be
1.93
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UABNicholls State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (UAB) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: UAB win
UAB win
no forecast
@ 1.30
NICH win
no forecast
@ 3.55
2nd half Spread UAB -5.5 · main lineActual: Nicholls State +5.5
UAB -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
NICH +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.90
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: UAB (regulation)
UAB
no forecast
@ 1.34
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
NICH
no forecast
@ 3.55
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Nicholls State over 66.5
75.1%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Lost
Nicholls State over 67.5
71.8%
1.54
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Lost
Nicholls State +22.5
85.0%
1.26
Betano
1.26
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
Nicholls State +17.5
72.9%
1.48
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+10.1pp
Won
Nicholls State +18.5
75.7%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
Nicholls State +21.5
83.0%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Nicholls State over 63.5
83.6%
1.25
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Nicholls State +19.5
78.3%
1.34
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+9.6pp
Won
Nicholls State over 64.5
81.0%
1.28
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.22
-
-
+9.4pp
Lost
Nicholls State +20.5
80.8%
1.29
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Nicholls State +21
82.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+7.9pp
Won
Over 146.5
75.0%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Nicholls State over 65.5
78.1%
1.31
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.23
-
-
+7.0pp
Lost
Nicholls State +17
72.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Nicholls State +23.5
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Nicholls State over 61.5
88.0%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Nicholls State +19
77.8%
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
Nicholls State over 60.5
89.9%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
Nicholls State +18
75.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Nicholls State +20
80.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
UAB under 91.5
76.9%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Nicholls State over 55.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Over 147.5
73.0%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Over 148.5
70.9%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Nicholls State over 59.5
91.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Nicholls State over 57.5
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Won
Nicholls State over 53.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Nicholls State over 62.5
85.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
UAB under 92.5
79.8%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Nicholls State over 56.5
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Nicholls State over 54.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
UAB under 95.5
87.2%
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Nicholls State over 58.5
93.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
UAB under 89.5
70.3%
1.39
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.6%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
UAB under 94.5
85.0%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Over 149
70.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+3.3pp
Lost
Over 130.5
95.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Over 148
72.5%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
UAB under 90.5
73.7%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Over 135.5
91.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.9pp
Lost
Over 145.5
77.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Lost
UAB under 93.5
82.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Over 140.5
85.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Lost
UAB +6.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.2pp
Won
Under 180.5
91.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
UAB over 78.5
71.6%
1.27
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
UAB over 75.5
80.8%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Lost
Under 175.5
86.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Won
UAB -4.5
71.8%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
UAB (regulation)
80.6%
1.06
Betano
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.06
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Won
UAB over 76.5
78.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Lost
UAB -5
70.8%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
UAB +1.5
84.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.7pp
Won
Under 170.5
78.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-5.3pp
Won
Nicholls State under 80.5
75.6%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
UAB -3.5
75.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-6.4pp
Won
UAB over 77.5
74.9%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Lost
UAB win
82.6%
1.06
Betano
1.07
BetVictor
1.07
Marathon Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Pinnacle
1.05
-8.4pp
Won
Nicholls State under 79.5
72.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-8.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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