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UMass W vs Marshall Thundering W Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 02 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 23:00
Projected 68-68
Projected total 135.9
Final 70-74
13-21 16-19 24-8 17-26
Position#246
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
UMass W
USA
Vs
50%
50%
■ UMAS 50%■ MARS 50%
Pythia win probability
Marshall Thundering W 🏆
USA
Position#203
Record-
FormWWWWW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA Women
Women2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

UMass Women face Marshall Thundering Women in a tightly contested NCAA Women matchup on 2 November 2026, with neither side clearly ahead as the balance of power sits squarely at 50% for each. The Thundering Women arrive with an unblemished five-game stretch, winning all five of their most recent contests, including a 66-41 home victory over Illinois State, a 69-62 road win against Arkansas State, and an 82-65 home triumph over Army, while UMass Women have slipped one loss in their last five, dropping 56-67 to Toledo W at home but securing wins over Buffalo W 73-55 at home and Akron W 74-64 away. Pythia projects a 68-68 tie with a combined total of 135.9 points, assigning equal 50% probabilities to each team, and designates Marshall Thundering Women as the model favourite; the projected score reflects a perfectly balanced contest. The game carries a 5% chance of overtime, underscoring how evenly matched the squads appear.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMass W winLost
49.9%fair 2.01
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Marshall Thundering W winWon
50.1%fair 1.99
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMass WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison W
#54
L
57-71
57
71
-14
H08/02
NCAA Women
Northern Illinois W
#342
W
75-54
75
54
+21
A11/02
NCAA Women
Miami (Ohio) W
#32
W
65-64
65
64
+1
H14/02
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H18/02
NCAA Women
Central Michigan W
#141
W
69-50
69
50
+19
A21/02
NCAA Women
Kent State W
#211
W
66-56
66
56
+10
H25/02
NCAA Women
Western Michigan W
#310
W
64-48
64
48
+16
A28/02
NCAA Women
Akron W
#344
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A04/03
NCAA Women
Buffalo W
#363
W
73-55
73
55
+18
H07/03
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
L
56-67
56
67
-11
H11/03
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-22
13-13
8-20
17-16
19-9
14-16
18-11
24-18
7-8
16-10
17-25
25-21
10-14
9-12
17-16
16-18
18-8
24-15
8-13
19-14
17-13
10-12
18-16
21-15
11-16
21-7
18-13
14-12
14-7
17-10
19-29
24-18
17-18
22-8
22-18
12-11
12-21
12-15
14-8
18-23
124.0Avg total
65.1Scored
58.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)65.158.9124.0+6.270%
Last 5 (5)66.658.0124.6+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.574.5133.0-16.00%
vs Similar (5)64.665.4130.0-0.840%
vs Weaker (23)70.758.0128.7+12.691%
Marshall Thundering WUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State W
#62
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H14/02
NCAA Women
Georgia Southern W
#56
L
55-76
55
76
-21
A19/02
NCAA Women
Georgia State W
#302
W
82-75
82
75
+7
A21/02
NCAA Women
Georgia Southern W
#56
L
72-78 OT
72
78
-6
H27/02
NCAA Women
South Alabama W
#215
L
58-73
58
73
-15
H06/03
NCAA Women
UMBC Retrievers W
#183
W
66-53
66
53
+13
H23/03
NCAA Women
Youngstown State W
#69
W
72-46
72
46
+26
A27/03
NCAA Women
Army W
#45
W
82-65
82
65
+17
H30/03
NCAA Women
Arkansas State W
#62
W
69-62
69
62
+7
A02/04
NCAA Women
Illinois State W
#122
W
66-41
66
41
+25
H04/04
NCAA Women
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-10
20-20
14-11
12-13
10-26
23-20
8-8
14-22
20-23
22-20
17-17
23-15
15-15
23-18
18-24
14-13
10-16
14-20
22-20
12-17
12-12
14-11
20-14
20-16
16-13
20-11
17-9
19-13
17-22
20-22
24-21
21-0
17-6
15-19
16-17
21-20
21-10
10-11
19-13
16-7
130.7Avg total
68.4Scored
62.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)68.462.3130.7+6.170%
Last 5 (5)71.053.4124.4+17.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)69.567.0136.5+2.560%
vs Weaker (20)74.963.2138.1+11.785%
Over/Under 126Actual: Over 126
Over 126
72.7%
Under 126
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 131Actual: Over 131
Over 131
61.5%
Under 131
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 136Actual: Over 136
Over 136
49.2%
Under 136
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

UMass W total 66.5Actual: UMass W over 66.5
Over 66.5
55.4%
Under 66.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass W total 70.5Actual: UMass W under 70.5
Over 70.5
40.0%
Under 70.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UMass W total 74.5Actual: UMass W under 74.5
Over 74.5
26.1%
Under 74.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall Thundering W total 56.5Actual: Marshall Thundering W over 56.5
Over 56.5
86.8%
Under 56.5
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall Thundering W total 60.5Actual: Marshall Thundering W over 60.5
Over 60.5
76.7%
Under 60.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Marshall Thundering W total 64.5Actual: Marshall Thundering W over 64.5
Over 64.5
63.2%
Under 64.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread UMass W -3Actual: Marshall Thundering W +3
UMAS -3
40.7%
MARS +3
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
No market prices yet.
MARS
No market prices yet.
Spread UMass W 0Actual: Marshall Thundering W 0
UMAS 0
49.9%
MARS 0
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
No market prices yet.
MARS
No market prices yet.
Spread UMass W +3Actual: Marshall Thundering W -3
UMAS +3
59.0%
MARS -3
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
UMAS
No market prices yet.
MARS
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +4.0+4.0Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +3.6+3.6
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +4.0+4.0Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -1.0-1.0Q3: +2.1+2.1Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +3.6+3.6
UMass WMarshall Thundering W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
UMass WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
James Madison W
#54
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H08/02
NCAA Women
Northern Illinois W
#342
W
33-25
33
25
+8
A11/02
NCAA Women
Miami (Ohio) W
#32
W
23-18
23
18
+5
H14/02
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
L
19-26
19
26
-7
H18/02
NCAA Women
Central Michigan W
#141
W
42-23
42
23
+19
A21/02
NCAA Women
Kent State W
#211
W
27-25
27
25
+2
H25/02
NCAA Women
Western Michigan W
#310
W
32-23
32
23
+9
A28/02
NCAA Women
Akron W
#344
W
31-17
31
17
+14
A04/03
NCAA Women
Buffalo W
#363
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H07/03
NCAA Women
Toledo W
#184
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H11/03
NCAA Women
55.6Avg total
30.2Scored
25.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.827.060.8+6.873%-
Last 30 at home (15)34.426.761.1+7.773%-
Last 30 away (15)33.127.360.5+5.873%-
Last 10 (10)30.225.455.6+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)30.625.456.0+5.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)35.534.069.5+1.550%-
vs Similar (5)27.631.258.8-3.640%-
vs Weaker (23)35.025.560.4+9.583%-
Marshall Thundering WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State W
#62
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H14/02
NCAA Women
Georgia Southern W
#56
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A19/02
NCAA Women
Georgia State W
#302
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A21/02
NCAA Women
Georgia Southern W
#56
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H27/02
NCAA Women
South Alabama W
#215
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H06/03
NCAA Women
UMBC Retrievers W
#183
W
26-23
26
23
+3
H23/03
NCAA Women
Youngstown State W
#69
W
36-24
36
24
+12
A27/03
NCAA Women
Army W
#45
L
37-44
37
44
-7
H30/03
NCAA Women
Arkansas State W
#62
W
32-25
32
25
+7
A02/04
NCAA Women
Illinois State W
#122
W
31-21
31
21
+10
H04/04
NCAA Women
66.0Avg total
33.5Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.832.567.3+2.357%-
Last 30 at home (15)36.831.968.7+4.967%-
Last 30 away (15)32.833.266.0-0.447%-
Last 10 (10)33.532.566.0+1.060%-
Last 5 (5)32.427.459.8+5.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)35.935.371.2+0.660%-
vs Weaker (20)34.231.165.4+3.155%-
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
UMass W wins
0
Marshall Thundering W wins
No previous meetings.
UMass Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HToledo W56-67
07/03/26HBuffalo W73-55
04/03/26AAkron W74-64
28/02/26AWestern Michigan W64-48
25/02/26HKent State W66-56
21/02/26ACentral Michigan W69-50
18/02/26HToledo W52-60
14/02/26HMiami (Ohio) W65-64
11/02/26ANorthern Illinois W75-54
08/02/26HJames Madison W57-71
Marshall Thundering Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/26HIllinois State W66-41
02/04/26AArkansas State W69-62
30/03/26HArmy W82-65
27/03/26AYoungstown State W72-46
23/03/26HUMBC Retrievers W66-53
06/03/26HSouth Alabama W58-73
27/02/26HGeorgia Southern W72-78 OT
21/02/26AGeorgia State W82-75
19/02/26AGeorgia Southern W55-76
14/02/26HArkansas State W62-54

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMass W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Marshall Thundering W
NCAA Women 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMKC W110100%120.040.0+80.0
2 Yale Bulldogs W110100%111.038.0+73.0
3 Louisville W110100%119.047.0+72.0
4 Oakland W110100%104.032.0+72.0
5 South Carolina State W110100%112.042.0+70.0
6 Longwood W110100%96.027.0+69.0
7 Utah Tech W110100%107.039.0+68.0
8 UConn W110100%100.035.0+65.0
9 Detroit Titans W110100%94.030.0+64.0
10 George Washington W110100%84.023.0+61.0
11 Samford Bulldogs W110100%102.042.0+60.0
12 Vanderbilt W110100%112.053.0+59.0
13 St. John's (N.Y.) W110100%95.037.0+58.0
14 Morgan State W110100%103.047.0+56.0
15 Tulane Green Wave W110100%92.038.0+54.0
16 Bryant University W110100%75.025.0+50.0
17 Charleston W110100%92.043.0+49.0
18 Montana State W110100%82.038.0+44.0
19 Ole Miss W110100%80.038.0+42.0
20 East Texas A&M Lions W110100%81.040.0+41.0
21 William & Mary W110100%89.048.0+41.0
22 Georgia W110100%92.053.0+39.0
23 Butler W110100%108.071.0+37.0
24 Boise State W110100%84.048.0+36.0
25 Stony Brook W110100%73.039.0+34.0
26 USC Trojans W110100%100.068.0+32.0
27 Kennesaw State W110100%72.042.0+30.0
28 NC State W110100%80.050.0+30.0
29 Nebraska Cornhuskers W110100%81.054.0+27.0
30 South Florida W110100%80.054.0+26.0
31 Southern Mississippi W110100%85.059.0+26.0
32 Idaho Vandals W110100%71.047.0+24.0
33 Notre Dame W110100%99.075.0+24.0
34 UMass Lowell W110100%77.053.0+24.0
35 Iona W110100%76.054.0+22.0
36 Clemson W110100%68.047.0+21.0
37 UCLA W110100%73.053.0+20.0
38 Washington W110100%79.063.0+16.0
39 Georgia Tech W110100%80.065.0+15.0
40 Stanford Cardinal W110100%84.069.0+15.0
41 Coastal Carolina W110100%68.054.0+14.0
42 Mcneese State W110100%65.053.0+12.0
43 Oklahoma Sooners W110100%91.079.0+12.0
44 Houston Cougars W110100%73.065.0+8.0
45 South Carolina W110100%101.093.0+8.0
46 Wake Forest W110100%65.058.0+7.0
47 Columbia W110100%71.065.0+6.0
48 Old Dominion W110100%62.058.0+4.0
49 Cleveland State W110100%62.061.0+1.0
50 Seattle U Redhawks W110100%63.062.0+1.0
51 Virginia State W110100%63.062.0+1.0
52 New Mexico W1010%62.063.0-1.0
53 Norfolk State W1010%62.063.0-1.0
54 Penn State W1010%61.062.0-1.0
55 Central Michigan W1010%58.062.0-4.0
56 Davidson W1010%65.071.0-6.0
57 South Carolina Upstate W1010%58.065.0-7.0
58 Hampton W1010%65.073.0-8.0
59 Maryland W1010%93.0101.0-8.0
60 North Carolina W1010%79.091.0-12.0
61 Texas A&M-Kingsville W1010%53.065.0-12.0
62 Western Michigan W1010%54.068.0-14.0
63 Arizona Wildcats W1010%69.084.0-15.0
64 Hofstra W1010%65.080.0-15.0
65 UC San Diego Tritons W1010%63.079.0-16.0
66 Lehigh W1010%53.073.0-20.0
67 Radford W1010%47.068.0-21.0
68 Dominican Chargers W1010%54.076.0-22.0
69 St. Anselm Hawks W1010%53.077.0-24.0
70 St. Martin's W1010%47.071.0-24.0
71 Villanova W1010%75.099.0-24.0
72 Furman Paladins W1010%54.080.0-26.0
73 Mississippi Christian W1010%59.085.0-26.0
74 San Jose State W1010%54.081.0-27.0
75 Shorter W1010%42.072.0-30.0
76 Wofford W1010%50.080.0-30.0
77 UNLV Lady Rebels W1010%68.0100.0-32.0
78 Molloy W1010%39.073.0-34.0
79 Bushnell W1010%48.084.0-36.0
80 Tennessee Tech W1010%71.0108.0-37.0
81 West Georgia W1010%53.092.0-39.0
82 Chowan W1010%48.089.0-41.0
83 Oklahoma Christian W1010%40.081.0-41.0
84 Alcorn State W1010%38.080.0-42.0
85 Black Hills W1010%38.082.0-44.0
86 Berry Vikings W1010%43.092.0-49.0
87 MIT Engineers W1010%25.075.0-50.0
88 Texas W1010%38.092.0-54.0
89 Washington Adventist W1010%47.0103.0-56.0
90 Lafayette W1010%37.095.0-58.0
91 Lipscomb Bisons W1010%53.0112.0-59.0
92 Montevallo Falcons W1010%42.0102.0-60.0
93 District of Columbia W1010%23.084.0-61.0
94 Michigan-Dearborn W1010%30.094.0-64.0
95 Cornell W1010%35.0100.0-65.0
96 Life Pacific W1010%39.0107.0-68.0
97 Apprentice Builders W1010%27.096.0-69.0
98 Trinity College of Jacksonville W1010%42.0112.0-70.0
99 Bellarmine W1010%47.0119.0-72.0
100 Cleary University W1010%32.0104.0-72.0
101 Elms College W1010%38.0111.0-73.0
102 Baker Wildcats W1010%40.0120.0-80.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 102 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
UMass W1316241770
Marshall Thundering W211982674
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