PythiaBasketballBETA
Super League· Arena Ugra
On 2 November 2026 the Super League will see University-Ugra host Metallurg, with the model designating University-Ugra as the favourite and predicting a 68% chance of a home win. University-Ugra, 2-4 this season, averages 71.7 points scored and 80.8 points allowed per game, sitting in ninth place, while Metallurg, 2-3, averages 76.2 points scored and 81.8 points allowed, positioned eighth; Metallurg's last five games include a 83-79 win over Novosibirsk and a 89-86 win over Izhevsk, whereas University-Ugra's recent slate features a 69-67 win against Dynamo Grozny and a 76-92 loss to Temp Sumz Revda. Their head-to-head record stands at six meetings with each side winning three, the most recent encounter ending 77-72 in favour of Metallurg on 21 February 2026. The model projects a final score of 82-77 for University-Ugra, a total of 158.3 points, and a 5% chance of overtime. The probability that University-Ugra will win is 68%, while Metallurg's chance of victory is 32%. The game will likely hinge on the teams' defensive performances, with University-Ugra's defense having allowed more points than Metallurg's, a factor that could swing the outcome.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (6) | 71.7 | 80.8 | 152.5 | -9.2 | 33% |
| Season at home (2) | 76.0 | 91.5 | 167.5 | -15.5 | 0% |
| Season away (4) | 69.5 | 75.5 | 145.0 | -6.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 75.5 | 81.8 | 157.3 | -6.3 | 30% |
| Last 5 (5) | 70.4 | 81.8 | 152.2 | -11.4 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 74.2 | 85.7 | 159.9 | -11.4 | 17% |
| vs Similar ◀ (13) | 83.2 | 78.8 | 162.0 | +4.3 | 69% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 86.6 | 84.0 | 170.6 | +2.6 | 60% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 76.2 | 81.8 | 158.0 | -5.6 | 40% |
| Season at home (3) | 78.7 | 83.3 | 162.0 | -4.7 | 33% |
| Season away (2) | 72.5 | 79.5 | 152.0 | -7.0 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 78.9 | 80.8 | 159.7 | -1.9 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.2 | 81.8 | 158.0 | -5.6 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 76.4 | 85.6 | 162.0 | -9.3 | 18% |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 70.1 | 76.1 | 146.1 | -6.0 | 36% |
| vs Weaker (5) | 80.0 | 72.0 | 152.0 | +8.0 | 80% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 39.7 | 41.5 | 81.1 | -1.8 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 42.0 | 42.1 | 84.1 | -0.1 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 37.9 | 41.0 | 78.9 | -3.1 | 24% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 38.8 | 42.9 | 81.7 | -4.1 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.6 | 44.4 | 84.0 | -4.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (12) | 38.6 | 43.9 | 82.5 | -5.3 | 17% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (13) | 39.4 | 39.2 | 78.5 | +0.2 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 43.0 | 41.6 | 84.6 | +1.4 | 40% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.2 | 40.0 | 77.2 | -2.9 | 30% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 36.7 | 38.5 | 75.2 | -1.8 | 29% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 37.6 | 41.4 | 78.9 | -3.8 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 39.1 | 39.7 | 78.8 | -0.6 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 42.8 | 41.2 | 84.0 | +1.6 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (11) | 37.3 | 43.8 | 81.1 | -6.5 | 9% | - |
| vs Similar ◀ (14) | 37.3 | 37.1 | 74.4 | +0.2 | 43% | - |
| vs Weaker (5) | 36.6 | 40.0 | 76.6 | -3.4 | 40% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | Metallurg v University-Ugra | 77-72 |
| 19/11/25 | University-Ugra v Metallurg | 79-63 |
| 12/02/25 | University-Ugra v Metallurg | 71-64 |
| 10/11/24 | Metallurg v University-Ugra | 77-72 |
| 30/10/23 | University-Ugra v Metallurg | 121-60 |
| 10/10/23 | Metallurg v University-Ugra | 101-92 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/26 | A | Dynamo Grozny | 69-67 |
| 22/10/26 | A | CSKA Moscow 2 | 63-78 |
| 15/10/26 | H | Temp Sumz Revda | 76-92 |
| 12/10/26 | H | Ufa | 76-91 |
| 05/10/26 | A | Rusichi Kursk | 68-81 |
| 02/10/26 | A | Desna Bryansk | 78-76 |
| 29/04/26 | A | Ufa | 79-90 |
| 28/04/26 | H | Temp Sumz Revda | 84-87 |
| 27/04/26 | A | Dynamo Vladivostok | 98-77 |
| 13/04/26 | H | Chelyabinsk | 64-79 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/26 | H | Novosibirsk | 83-79 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Barnaul | 74-78 |
| 15/10/26 | A | Izhevsk | 89-86 |
| 12/10/26 | A | Tambov | 56-73 |
| 04/10/26 | H | Chelyabinsk | 79-93 |
| 16/04/26 | H | Izhevsk | 81-83 |
| 15/04/26 | A | Tambov | 84-90 |
| 14/04/26 | H | Barnaul | 77-55 |
| 28/03/26 | H | Chelyabinsk | 91-89 |
| 22/03/26 | H | Zenit Petersburg 2 | 75-82 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLW | 33% |
| Home | LL | 0% |
| Away | WLLW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Win % | 33% | 0% | 50% |
| Points / game | 71.7 | 76.0 | 69.5 |
| Allowed / game | 80.8 | 91.5 | 75.5 |
| Point differential | -9.2 | -15.5 | -6.0 |
| Avg total | 152.5 | 167.5 | 145.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (2) | - | 100% (2) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLWLW | 40% |
| Home | LLW | 33% |
| Away | LW | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Win % | 40% | 33% | 50% |
| Points / game | 76.2 | 78.7 | 72.5 |
| Allowed / game | 81.8 | 83.3 | 79.5 |
| Point differential | -5.6 | -4.7 | -7.0 |
| Avg total | 158.0 | 162.0 | 152.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | 50% (2) | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelyabinsk | 5 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 93.6 | 86.0 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Ufa | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 89.1 | 71.4 | +17.7 |
| 3 | Temp Sumz Revda | 7 | 6 | 1 | 86% | 91.1 | 77.9 | +13.3 |
| 4 | Dynamo Grozny | 6 | 5 | 1 | 83% | 82.5 | 72.2 | +10.3 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 67% | 71.8 | 68.8 | +3.0 |
| 6 | Khimki M. | 6 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 78.2 | 76.5 | +1.7 |
| 7 | Metallurg | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 76.2 | 81.8 | -5.6 |
| 8 | Tambov | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 71.3 | 73.8 | -2.5 |
| 9 | University-Ugra | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 71.7 | 80.8 | -9.2 |
| 10 | Barnaul | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 78.6 | 83.9 | -5.3 |
| 11 | Novosibirsk | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 80.9 | 89.1 | -8.3 |
| 12 | Desna Bryansk | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 71.8 | 78.8 | -7.0 |
| 13 | Rusichi Kursk | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20% | 70.4 | 85.2 | -14.8 |
| 14 | Izhevsk | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 79.5 | 86.7 | -7.2 |
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University-Ugra | 22 | 9 | 28 | 19 | 78 |
| Metallurg | 18 | 27 | 17 | 14 | 76 |
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