The UTSA Roadrunners host VMI on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names UTSA as the favourite, assigning an 83% chance of victory largely because of their higher points per game and the model's confidence in their offensive output. UTSA's single game this season is a 0-1 record, 74.0 points scored and 95.0 points allowed, while VMI has a 1-1 record, 92.5 points scored and 89.0 points allowed. UTSA's five-game stretch has been 0-5, with losses to San Jose State 74-95, Rice 71-80, and Wichita State 67-84, and VMI's last five games are 1-4, including a 115-83 win over Virginia-Lynchburg and defeats to SMU Mustangs 70-95 and NC Greensboro 70-84. The teams have not met before, so no head-to-head history is available. Pythia projects a 82-72 score, a total of 154.0 points, and gives UTSA a 72% chance to cover the home line of -4.5; the over on the 161.5 total has a 32% probability, and the game has a 3% chance of overtime. The Roadrunners' recent struggles contrast with VMI's lone win, setting the stage for a decisive contest.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
UTSA Roadrunners winWon
82.5%fair 1.21
Best odds1.48
Implied65.0%
Edge+17.5pp
VMI winLost
17.5%fair 5.72
Best odds2.85
Implied35.0%
Edge-17.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (UTSA Roadrunners) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Under 158.5
Over 158.5
38.7%
@ 1.50-23.7pp
Under 158.5
61.3%
@ 2.55+23.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 163.5 · main lineActual: Under 163.5
Over 163.5
27.8%
@ 1.90-22.7pp
Under 163.5
72.2%
@ 1.93+22.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Over/Under 168.5Actual: Under 168.5
Over 168.5
18.7%
@ 2.55-18.3pp
Under 168.5
81.3%
@ 1.47+18.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
UTSA Roadrunners total 80Actual: UTSA Roadrunners under 80
Over 80
59.7%
Under 80
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
UTSA Roadrunners total 84 · main lineActual: UTSA Roadrunners under 84
Over 84
43.1%
@ 1.85-6.9pp
Under 84
56.9%
@ 1.86+6.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
UTSA Roadrunners total 88Actual: UTSA Roadrunners under 88
Over 88
27.7%
Under 88
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VMI total 76Actual: VMI under 76
Over 76
32.6%
Under 76
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
VMI total 80 · main lineActual: VMI under 80
Over 80
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 80
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
1xBet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
VMI total 83.5Actual: VMI under 83.5
Over 83.5
no forecast
@ 2.57
Under 83.5
no forecast
@ 1.40
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.40
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread UTSA Roadrunners -8Actual: VMI +8
UTSA -8
59.8%
@ 2.35+20.2pp
VMI +8
40.2%
@ 1.54-20.2pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Bet365
2.35
VMI
Bet365
1.54
Spread UTSA Roadrunners -5 · main lineActual: VMI +5
UTSA -5
70.6%
@ 1.94+19.5pp
VMI +5
29.4%
@ 1.96-19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.82
VMI
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.92
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.86
1xBet
1.78
Spread UTSA Roadrunners -2Push
UTSA -2
80.0%
@ 1.54+19.5pp
VMI +2
20.0%
@ 2.35-19.5pp
Best 5 market prices
UTSA
Bet365
1.54
VMI
Bet365
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
UTSA RoadrunnersVMI
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
VMI under 77.5
71.9%
1.92
Betano
2.10
Pinnacle
1.95
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
+23.6pp
Won
Under 163
71.6%
1.94
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.96
SBO
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.90
-
+23.5pp
Won
Under 162.5
70.2%
1.94
Pinnacle
2.03
Bet365
2.01
Betano
1.98
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.93
+23.3pp
Won
Under 164
73.7%
1.83
Pinnacle
1.87
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.83
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
+22.9pp
Won
Under 163.5
72.2%
1.87
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.87
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
+22.7pp
Won
Under 165
75.6%
1.75
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.74
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.71
+22.1pp
Won
Under 164.5
74.2%
1.79
Pinnacle
1.82
1xBet
1.81
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.78
+22.0pp
Won
Under 165.5
76.1%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.74
WilliamHill
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.67
+21.4pp
Won
Under 166
77.5%
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners (regulation)
80.5%
1.50
1xBet
1.52
Betano
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.47
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Under 167
79.3%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.66
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
+20.4pp
Won
Under 166.5
77.9%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.64
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+20.1pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners -2
80.0%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Push
UTSA Roadrunners -5
70.6%
1.86
1xBet
1.94
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.82
+19.5pp
Lost
Under 167.5
79.7%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+19.4pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners -4
74.0%
1.75
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.75
SBO
1.74
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.71
+18.6pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners -1.5
80.6%
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
+18.6pp
Won
Under 168
81.0%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Won
Under 169
82.6%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+18.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
81.3%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners -3
76.8%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.64
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners -4.5
71.6%
1.78
Betano
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
+18.1pp
Lost
Under 169.5
82.9%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners -1
82.2%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+18.0pp
Won
Under 170
84.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+17.8pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners -3.5
74.8%
1.69
Betano
1.70
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
-
+17.5pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners win
82.5%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.48
Betano
1.47
Marathon Bet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.43
+17.5pp
Won
Under 170.5
84.3%
1.38
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+17.4pp
Won
Under 171.5
85.7%
1.35
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners -2.5
77.4%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
-
-
+17.0pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners +1
83.9%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+16.9pp
Won
Under 171
85.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +1.5
84.1%
1.37
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +2.5
86.4%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +2
86.1%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +3
87.8%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +3.5
88.0%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Under 174.5
89.3%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+14.6pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +4.5
89.6%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Under 173.5
88.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+14.1pp
Won
Under 178.5
93.0%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Under 179.5
93.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +9.5
95.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +14.5
97.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 89.5
76.4%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 88.5
73.2%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 90.5
79.4%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 93.5
86.9%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners +19.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
96.6%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+6.1pp
-
UTSA Roadrunners under 94.5
88.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 92.5
84.6%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 100.5
96.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 98.5
94.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 96.5
92.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners under 102.5
97.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
UTSA Roadrunners over 74.5
78.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners over 73.5
81.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.7pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners over 75.5
75.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Lost
UTSA Roadrunners over 76.5
72.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Lost
VMI +20.5
80.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.2pp
Won
VMI over 60.5
86.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Over 138.5
82.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Lost
VMI over 61.5
84.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.6pp
Won
VMI over 62.5
81.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
Over 139.5
81.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.4pp
Lost
VMI over 63.5
78.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-12.8pp
Won
VMI over 64.5
75.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-14.5pp
Won
Over 143.5
73.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.3pp
Lost
VMI over 65.5
72.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-17.1pp
Won
Over 144.5
71.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.3pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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