William & Mary host Norfolk State on 8 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names William & Mary the clear favourite, assigning them a 95% chance to win because of their undefeated 1-0 record, 80.0 points per game, and 66.0 allowed per game, while Norfolk State is 2-0 with 73.0 points per game and 58.0 allowed per game. William & Mary's single game has been a 80-66 victory at home, and they have won 4 of their last 5, with a recent 80-66 win over Bridgewater College (VA) and a 72-62 win over Elon; Norfolk State's two games have both been wins, 78-71 over Randolph and 68-45 over Regent University, but they have lost three of their last five, including an 82-88 loss to South Carolina St. In their five previous meetings, Norfolk State leads 3-2, most recently beating William & Mary 81-78 on 8 November 2025. Pythia projects a 87-68 score for William & Mary, a total of 155.3 points, and a 81% probability that the home team covers the -9.5 spread; the over on the 157.5 total has a 44% chance, and there is a 1% chance of overtime. The game will finish with William & Mary winning 87-68.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
William & Mary winWon
95.2%fair 1.05
Best odds1.26
Implied80.2%
Edge+15.0pp
Norfolk State winLost
4.8%fair 20.71
Best odds5.00
Implied19.8%
Edge-15.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 07 Nov 07:12 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (William & Mary) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152.5Actual: Over 152.5
Over 152.5
56.8%
@ 1.44-7.3pp
Under 152.5
43.2%
@ 2.57+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.57
Over/Under 157.5 · main lineActual: Over 157.5
Over 157.5
44.5%
@ 1.89-6.1pp
Under 157.5
55.5%
@ 1.98+6.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.87
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
1xBet
1.87
Over/Under 162.5Actual: Over 162.5
Over 162.5
32.7%
@ 2.27-7.9pp
Under 162.5
67.3%
@ 1.55+7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.55
📊 3. Team Totals
William & Mary total 78Actual: William & Mary over 78
Over 78
83.8%
Under 78
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
William & Mary total 82 · main lineActual: William & Mary over 82
Over 82
71.6%
@ 1.85+21.4pp
Under 82
28.4%
@ 1.87-21.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
William & Mary total 86Actual: William & Mary over 86
Over 86
56.0%
Under 86
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norfolk State total 69Actual: Norfolk State over 69
Over 69
45.1%
Under 69
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Norfolk State total 73 · main linePush
Over 73
29.5%
@ 1.85-20.7pp
Under 73
70.5%
@ 1.87+20.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Norfolk State total 77Actual: Norfolk State under 77
Over 77
17.3%
Under 77
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread William & Mary -12.5Actual: William & Mary -12.5
WILL -12.5
73.3%
@ 2.27+32.7pp
NORF +12.5
26.7%
@ 1.55-32.7pp
Best 5 market prices
WILL
Betano
2.27
NORF
Betano
1.55
Spread William & Mary -9.5 · main lineActual: William & Mary -9.5
WILL -9.5
81.2%
@ 1.93+31.3pp
NORF +9.5
18.8%
@ 1.92-31.3pp
Best 5 market prices
WILL
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
NORF
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.90
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Spread William & Mary -6.5Actual: William & Mary -6.5
WILL -6.5
87.4%
@ 1.70+26.7pp
NORF +6.5
12.6%
@ 2.35-26.7pp
Best 5 market prices
WILL
Marathon Be
1.70
Betano
1.52
NORF
Betano
2.35
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
William & MaryNorfolk State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Norfolk State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Norfolk StateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
N. Carolina Central
#258
W
39-37
39
37
+2
H07/02
NCAA
Delaware State
#353
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H14/02
NCAA
Md.-East. Shore
#345
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A17/02
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H21/02
NCAA
Coppin State
#354
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A28/02
NCAA
Morgan State
#244
W
55-45
55
45
+10
A02/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
37-45
37
45
-8
H06/03
NCAA
South Carolina St
#336
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H12/03
NCAA
Regent University
#408
W
33-30
33
30
+3
H03/11
NCAA
Randolph
#322
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H05/11
NCAA
80.2Avg total
41.3Scored
38.9Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 83.5
Last 30 (30)
39.7
38.7
78.3
+1.0
60%
27%
Last 30 at home (14)
43.2
37.7
80.9
+5.5
79%
29%
Last 30 away (16)
36.6
39.5
76.1
-2.9
44%
25%
Last 10 (10)
41.3
38.9
80.2
+2.4
80%
20%
Last 5 (5)
44.0
41.2
85.2
+2.8
80%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)
35.8
46.2
82.0
-10.5
25%
25%
vs Similar (6)
34.8
36.7
71.5
-1.8
67%
33%
vs Weaker (19)
41.8
37.8
79.6
+4.1
63%
26%
This opponent (William & Mary) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: William & Mary win
WILL win
no forecast
@ 1.42
NORF win
no forecast
@ 2.87
2nd half Spread William & Mary -3.5 · main lineActual: William & Mary -3.5
WILL -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
NORF +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Over/Under 83.5 · main lineActual: Over 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
William & Mary 2nd half total 42.5 · main lineActual: William & Mary over 42.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Norfolk State 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: Norfolk State under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
2nd half Spread William & Mary -4.5Actual: William & Mary -4.5
WILL -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
NORF +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Over 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: William & Mary (regulation)
WILL
no forecast
@ 1.47
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
NORF
no forecast
@ 2.90
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
William & Mary -11
78.1%
2.12
Pinnacle
2.23
Marathon Bet
2.00
-
-
-
+35.2pp
Won
William & Mary -7
87.2%
1.78
1xBet
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.77
-
-
-
+35.1pp
Won
William & Mary -11.5
76.1%
2.21
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.10
-
-
-
+34.8pp
Won
William & Mary -10.5
78.7%
1.99
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.02
Marathon Bet
1.93
BetVictor
1.88
-
+33.6pp
Won
William & Mary -10
80.7%
1.97
Pinnacle
2.03
SBO
1.96
Marathon Bet
1.91
-
-
+33.4pp
Won
William & Mary -13.5
70.3%
2.47
Betano
2.47
-
-
-
-
+33.0pp
Won
William & Mary -12.5
73.3%
2.27
Betano
2.27
-
-
-
-
+32.7pp
Won
William & Mary -9.5
81.2%
1.86
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.86
+31.3pp
Won
William & Mary -9
83.0%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.79
SBO
1.78
-
-
+30.7pp
Won
William & Mary -8.5
83.4%
1.74
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.72
-
-
+28.9pp
Won
William & Mary -8
85.2%
1.83
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Bet
1.89
Pinnacle
1.69
-
-
+28.7pp
Won
William & Mary -7.5
85.5%
1.75
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.84
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.64
+27.1pp
Won
Norfolk State under 75
77.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
-
-
-
+27.1pp
Won
William & Mary -6.5
87.4%
1.61
Marathon Bet
1.70
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
William & Mary -1.5
94.5%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
William & Mary -5.5
89.2%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+25.1pp
Won
Norfolk State under 74
73.9%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Won
Norfolk State under 74.5
74.8%
1.85
WilliamHill
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
Betano
1.83
+23.7pp
Won
William & Mary -4.5
90.7%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+23.6pp
Won
Norfolk State under 75.5
77.8%
1.70
Betano
1.70
-
-
-
-
+23.5pp
Won
Norfolk State under 73.5
71.5%
1.91
Betano
1.98
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
+23.5pp
Won
William & Mary -3.5
92.1%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Won
William & Mary over 82
71.6%
1.84
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
+21.4pp
Won
Norfolk State under 77.5
83.2%
1.48
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
+21.2pp
Won
William & Mary (regulation)
94.3%
1.22
1xBet
1.27
Betano
1.22
Marathon Bet
1.18
-
-
+21.1pp
Won
Norfolk State under 73
70.5%
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Push
William & Mary -2.5
93.2%
1.27
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Won
Norfolk State under 78.5
85.5%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Won
Norfolk State under 76.5
80.6%
1.54
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.50
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Won
William & Mary over 81.5
72.6%
1.57
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
-
-
+17.2pp
Won
William & Mary win
95.2%
1.19
SBO
1.26
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+15.0pp
Won
William & Mary over 77.5
84.3%
1.31
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+14.0pp
Won
William & Mary over 80.5
75.9%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
+12.9pp
Won
William & Mary over 79.5
78.9%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+12.1pp
Won
William & Mary over 78.5
81.7%
1.31
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
William & Mary over 74.5
90.4%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+9.0pp
Won
William & Mary over 75.5
88.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+8.5pp
Won
William & Mary over 73.5
92.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.8%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.6pp
-
Under 164.5
71.7%
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
-
+7.6pp
Lost
Under 165.5
73.7%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Under 168.5
79.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Under 173.5
87.0%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Under 178.5
92.4%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Over 133.5
91.2%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.0pp
Won
Over 138.5
85.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
Norfolk State over 57.5
85.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Over 143.5
76.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
William & Mary under 93.5
73.1%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-9.7pp
Lost
Norfolk State over 59.5
79.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.9pp
Won
Norfolk State over 61.5
73.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-15.0pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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