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AEL vs Tal Tech Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 76-74
Projected total 149.5
Final 74-67
23-16 16-16 19-21 16-14
Position#4
Record2-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game77.5
Allowed / game59.5
AEL 🏆
Vs
58%
42%
■ AEL 58%■ TAL 42%
Pythia win probability
Tal Tech
Position#11
Record2-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game84.0
Allowed / game81.3
EuropeENBL· Nicos Solomonides Arena
Other2026-27
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

AEL faces Tal Tech in the ENBL on 3 November 2026, with the model favouring AEL at 58% to 42% for the win; the projected score is 76-74 and the total is 149.5 points. AEL has gone 2-0 this season, averaging 77.5 points and allowing 59.5, and sits third in the league; at home they are 1-0, scoring 76.0 and conceding 58.0. Their last five games include four wins and one loss, with recent victories over Morphou 71-49 at home, ETHA Engomi 74-70 away, and Fyllingen 76-58 at home. Tal Tech is 2-1 this season, averaging 84.0 points and conceding 81.3, and occupies sixth place; on the road they are 0-1, scoring 74.0 and allowing 80.0. Their last five games also show four wins and one loss, with recent wins over Keila KK 79-58 away, Latvijas Universitate 78-59 at home, and a loss to Tartu Ulikool 41-65 away. The model predicts a close contest with AEL covering the spread and a 5% chance of overtime.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEL winWon
58.5%fair 1.71
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tal Tech winLost
41.5%fair 2.41
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AELLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAEL
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
L
81-85
81
85
-4
67avg 72
H22/04
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
66-86
66
86
-20
50avg 72
A25/04
Division A
Keravnos
#2
W
87-82
87
82
+5
82avg 72
H29/04
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
60-92
60
92
-32
45avg 72
A02/05
Division A
Spartak Pleven
#3
W
79-61
79
61
+18
79avg 72
A06/10
ENBL
Apoel BC
#5
L
73-80
73
80
-7
69avg 72
A12/10
Division A
Paralimni
#4
W
89-77
89
77
+12
86avg 72
H17/10
Division A
Fyllingen
#16
W
76-58
76
58
+18
74avg 72
H21/10
ENBL
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
74-70
74
70
+4
72avg 72
A26/10
Division A
Morphou
#8
W
71-49
71
49
+22
68avg 72
H30/10
Division A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-18
23-18
20-21
15-28
19-30
8-18
24-22
15-16
23-21
19-19
17-24
28-18
20-22
16-30
11-20
13-20
22-9
19-15
18-21
20-16
25-19
17-24
17-14
14-23
20-22
22-22
24-20
23-13
20-11
14-17
20-14
22-16
23-14
18-10
21-24
12-22
20-11
22-15
19-13
10-10
149.6Avg total
75.6Scored
74.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)77.559.5137.0+18.0100%
Season at home (1)76.058.0134.0+18.0100%
Season away (1)79.061.0140.0+18.0100%
Last 10 (10)75.674.0149.6+1.660%
Last 5 (5)76.666.8143.4+9.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)70.684.0154.6-13.422%
vs Similar (10)86.579.6166.1+6.990%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)82.070.7152.7+11.391%
This opponent (Tal Tech) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tal TechLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTech
Date
Competition
Donar Groningen
#8
W
83-70
83
70
+13
81avg 75
H30/09
ENBL
Viimsi
#13
W
85-64
85
64
+21
68avg 75
A04/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Voluntari
#5
L
74-80
74
80
-6
69avg 75
A07/10
ENBL
VEF Riga
#2
L
70-90
70
90
-20
60avg 75
H10/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Liepaja
#11
W
78-71
78
71
+7
67avg 75
A14/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Ventspils
#5
W
85-82
85
82
+3
80avg 75
A16/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Ogre
#10
W
82-78
82
78
+4
75avg 75
H21/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tartu Ulikool
#4
L
41-65
41
65
-24
28avg 75
A24/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
78-59
78
59
+19
76avg 75
H28/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Keila KK
#9
W
79-58
79
58
+21
79avg 75
A31/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-19
20-21
23-14
20-16
24-15
21-14
19-19
21-16
14-22
20-20
19-18
21-20
15-18
18-21
19-28
18-23
16-20
17-16
24-15
21-20
17-17
16-22
28-17
24-26
26-21
25-18
18-18
13-21
9-15
15-21
9-12
8-17
28-11
13-11
21-18
16-19
20-17
21-19
16-12
22-10
147.2Avg total
75.5Scored
71.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)84.081.3165.3+2.767%
Season at home (2)89.082.0171.0+7.0100%
Season away (1)74.080.0154.0-6.00%
Last 10 (10)75.571.7147.2+3.870%
Last 5 (5)73.068.4141.4+4.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)74.086.3160.3-12.315%
vs Similar (8)81.478.9160.2+2.575%
vs Weaker (9)87.171.2158.3+15.9100%
This opponent (AEL) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 163Actual: Under 163
Over 163
20.0%
Under 163
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 168Actual: Under 168
Over 168
12.8%
Under 168
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 173Actual: Under 173
Over 173
7.8%
Under 173
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

AEL total 81Actual: AEL under 81
Over 81
30.4%
Under 81
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL total 85Actual: AEL under 85
Over 85
18.0%
Under 85
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL total 89Actual: AEL under 89
Over 89
9.5%
Under 89
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tal Tech total 79Actual: Tal Tech under 79
Over 79
29.0%
Under 79
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tal Tech total 83Actual: Tal Tech under 83
Over 83
17.3%
Under 83
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tal Tech total 87Actual: Tal Tech under 87
Over 87
9.2%
Under 87
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread AEL -3Actual: AEL -3
AEL -3
49.5%
TAL +3
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
AEL
No market prices yet.
TAL
No market prices yet.
Spread AEL 0Actual: AEL 0
AEL 0
58.5%
TAL 0
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
AEL
No market prices yet.
TAL
No market prices yet.
Spread AEL +3Actual: AEL +3
AEL +3
67.3%
TAL -3
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
AEL
No market prices yet.
TAL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -0.4-0.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.8+3.8Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -0.4-0.4
AELTal Tech
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AELLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
W
46-36
46
36
+10
H22/04
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
27-48
27
48
-21
A25/04
Division A
Keravnos
#2
W
42-40
42
40
+2
H29/04
Division A
Keravnos
#2
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A02/05
Division A
Spartak Pleven
#3
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A06/10
ENBL
Apoel BC
#5
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A12/10
Division A
Paralimni
#4
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H17/10
Division A
Fyllingen
#16
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H21/10
ENBL
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A26/10
Division A
Morphou
#8
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H30/10
Division A
75.8Avg total
39.3Scored
36.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.437.177.5+3.370%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.236.278.3+6.085%-
Last 30 away (17)39.037.876.8+1.259%-
Last 10 (10)39.336.575.8+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)40.233.073.2+7.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)35.940.676.4-4.744%-
vs Similar (10)42.238.881.0+3.470%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)42.432.775.1+9.691%-
This opponent (Tal Tech) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Tal TechLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Donar Groningen
#8
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H30/09
ENBL
Viimsi
#13
W
45-29
45
29
+16
A04/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Voluntari
#5
L
34-42
34
42
-8
A07/10
ENBL
VEF Riga
#2
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H10/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Liepaja
#11
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A14/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Ventspils
#5
L
33-39
33
39
-6
A16/10
Latvia-Estonian League
BK Ogre
#10
W
51-39
51
39
+12
H21/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Tartu Ulikool
#4
L
24-36
24
36
-12
A24/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Latvijas Universitate
#14
W
41-22
41
22
+19
H28/10
Latvia-Estonian League
Keila KK
#9
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A31/10
Latvia-Estonian League
73.3Avg total
37.5Scored
35.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.139.878.9-0.740%-
Last 30 at home (13)43.241.684.8+1.546%-
Last 30 away (17)36.038.474.4-2.435%-
Last 10 (10)37.535.873.3+1.740%-
Last 5 (5)38.034.472.4+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)36.243.479.6-7.215%-
vs Similar (8)39.540.279.8-0.838%-
vs Weaker (9)42.934.177.0+8.878%-
This opponent (AEL) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AELtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEL: 75.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.0 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.3
54.6%
53.5%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.66.5
28.8%
32.5%19.5
🏀 Free throws21.815.4
70.6%
70.7%15.4
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tal Techtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tal Tech: 73.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.0 points a game
51%
31%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.418.7
51.4%
53.5%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.17.8
31.1%
32.5%23.4
🏀 Free throws20.613.0
63.1%
70.7%13.0
They take 61.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEL
WWWWLWLWLL
Tal Tech
WWLWWWLLWW
#4
League position
#11
+2.4
Net rating
+2.5
92.1
Offensive rating
86.9
89.7
Defensive rating
84.5
50.3%
Effective FG%
49.4%
48.4%
Opp. effective FG%
47.3%
14.3%
Turnover %
16.9%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.33
28.8%
3-point %
31.1%
62.3%
Assist %
72.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence92.1 · 86.9Defence89.7 · 84.5Shooting50.3% · 49.4%3-point %28.8% · 31.1%Ball care14.3% · 16.9%Free throws0.36 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ AEL   ■ Tal Tech
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
AEL wins
0
Tal Tech wins
No previous meetings.
AELlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26HMorphou71-49
26/10/26AETHA Engomi74-70
21/10/26HFyllingen76-58
17/10/26HParalimni89-77
12/10/26AApoel BC73-80
06/10/26ASpartak Pleven79-61
02/05/26AKeravnos60-92
29/04/26HKeravnos87-82
25/04/26AKeravnos66-86
22/04/26HKeravnos81-85
Tal Techlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26AKeila KK79-58
28/10/26HLatvijas Universitate78-59
24/10/26ATartu Ulikool41-65
21/10/26HBK Ogre82-78
16/10/26AVentspils85-82
14/10/26ABK Liepaja78-71
10/10/26HVEF Riga70-90
07/10/26AVoluntari74-80
04/10/26AViimsi85-64
30/09/26HDonar Groningen83-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEL
ENBL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game77.576.079.0
Allowed / game59.558.061.0
Point differential+18.0+18.0+18.0
Avg total137.0134.0140.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tal Tech
ENBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game84.089.074.0
Allowed / game81.382.080.0
Point differential+2.7+7.0-6.0
Avg total165.3171.0154.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Kapfenberg Bulls220100%101.077.0+24.0
2 Syntainics MBC330100%98.376.7+21.7
3 AEL220100%77.559.5+18.0
4 Tindastoll330100%84.769.3+15.3
5 Spartak Pleven43175%77.572.2+5.2
6 Tal Tech32167%84.081.3+2.7
7 Voluntari32167%79.383.3-4.0
8 Anwil Wloclawek21150%91.584.0+7.5
9 Jonava21150%75.572.0+3.5
10 Alkar21150%87.090.0-3.0
11 Dubrava21150%83.091.5-8.5
12 CIU31233%82.085.0-3.0
13 Donar Groningen31233%80.383.7-3.3
14 Bristol Flyers31233%79.087.7-8.7
15 Fyllingen41325%70.280.2-10.0
16 BK Liepaja41325%76.289.8-13.5
17 Zrinjski Mostar3030%77.381.3-4.0
18 Lausanne Basket4040%75.090.0-15.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AEL2316191674
Tal Tech1616211467
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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