Alcorn State hosts Howard on 5 November 2026 in the NCAA, with Howard the model favourite as the Pythia predicts a 74% chance of victory over Alcorn State's 26% chance, projecting a 70-77 score and a total of 147.1 points; the home line of 6.5 gives a 47% probability that Alcorn State covers, while the 150.5 total has a 41% chance of going over, and a 4% overtime probability. Alcorn State enters with a 0-1 record, averaging 58.0 points and allowing 99.0, positioned 383rd in the league, and has gone 2-3 in its last five games, with recent losses to Ole Miss 58-99 and Prairie View A&M 56-65 and a win over Alabama State 77-65. Howard also sits at 0-1, averaging 62.0 points and conceding 72.0, ranked 264th, and has a 3-2 record in its last five, with losses to Yale 62-72 and Michigan 80-101 and a win over UMBC 86-83. Their head-to-head history shows one meeting, Howard winning 72-64 on 13 November 2025. The game will test whether Howard can maintain its edge over a struggling Alcorn State side.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alcorn State winLost
26.2%fair 3.82
Best odds4.27
Implied22.5%
Edge+3.6pp
Howard winWon
73.8%fair 1.35
Best odds1.28
Implied77.5%
Edge-3.6pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 04 Nov 06:58 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Alcorn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
55.8%
@ 1.45-8.8pp
Under 144.5
44.2%
@ 2.72+8.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.40
Under
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
43.7%
@ 1.90-6.6pp
Under 149.5
56.3%
@ 2.00+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.85
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
BetVictor
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
32.2%
@ 2.40-6.5pp
Under 154.5
67.8%
@ 1.52+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.37
Under
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
📊 3. Team Totals
Alcorn State total 65.5Actual: Alcorn State over 65.5
Over 65.5
no forecast
@ 1.35
Under 65.5
no forecast
@ 3.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
2.77
Alcorn State total 70 · main lineActual: Alcorn State over 70
Over 70
49.3%
@ 1.85-1.0pp
Under 70
50.7%
@ 1.87+1.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Alcorn State total 74Actual: Alcorn State over 74
Over 74
33.7%
Under 74
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Howard total 75Actual: Howard over 75
Over 75
58.9%
Under 75
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Howard total 79 · main lineActual: Howard over 79
Over 79
42.5%
@ 1.85-7.5pp
Under 79
57.5%
@ 1.85+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Howard total 83Actual: Howard over 83
Over 83
27.4%
Under 83
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Alcorn State +6Actual: Howard -6
ALCO +6
44.8%
@ 1.98-2.3pp
HOWA -6
55.2%
@ 1.76+2.3pp
Best 5 market prices
ALCO
Marathon Be
1.98
Bet365
1.95
HOWA
Bet365
1.76
Marathon Be
1.74
Spread Alcorn State +9 · main lineActual: Howard -9
ALCO +9
56.4%
@ 1.90+5.8pp
HOWA -9
43.6%
@ 2.27-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ALCO
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.58
HOWA
Bet365
2.27
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathon Be
1.84
Spread Alcorn State +12Actual: Alcorn State +12
ALCO +12
67.1%
@ 1.37-0.8pp
HOWA -12
32.9%
@ 2.90+0.8pp
Best 5 market prices
ALCO
Bet365
1.37
HOWA
Bet365
2.90
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
Alcorn StateHoward
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Alcorn StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bethune-Cookman
#185
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H14/02
NCAA
Florida A&M
#245
L
29-39
29
39
-10
H17/02
NCAA
Jackson State
#306
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H21/02
NCAA
Texas Southern
#281
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A27/02
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
L
22-36
22
36
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Miss. Valley St.
#372
W
38-23
38
23
+15
H04/03
NCAA
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
#280
L
19-37
19
37
-18
H06/03
NCAA
Alabama State
#330
W
32-31
32
31
+1
A09/03
NCAA
Prairie View A&M
#198
W
26-22
26
22
+4
A10/03
NCAA
Ole Miss
#42
L
31-52
31
52
-21
A03/11
NCAA
64.4Avg total
29.7Scored
34.7Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 70.5
Last 30 (30)
31.2
37.5
68.7
-6.3
20%
33%
Last 30 at home (10)
31.5
33.1
64.6
-1.6
20%
20%
Last 30 away (20)
31.1
39.8
70.8
-8.7
20%
40%
Last 10 (10)
29.7
34.7
64.4
-5.0
30%
20%
Last 5 (5)
29.2
33.0
62.2
-3.8
60%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)
30.4
38.1
68.5
-7.7
15%
35%
vs Similar (2)
35.5
43.5
79.0
-8.0
0%
50%
vs Weaker (2)
37.0
24.0
61.0
+13.0
100%
0%
This opponent (Howard) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
This opponent (Alcorn State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: Alcorn State win
ALCO win
no forecast
@ 2.85
HOWA win
no forecast
@ 1.44
2nd half Spread Alcorn State +3.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State +3.5
ALCO +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
HOWA -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Over 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
Alcorn State 2nd half total 37.5 · main lineActual: Alcorn State over 37.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Howard 2nd half total 41.5 · main lineActual: Howard over 41.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.88
2nd half Spread Alcorn State +2.5Actual: Alcorn State +2.5
ALCO +2.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
HOWA -2.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half Spread Alcorn State +4.5Actual: Alcorn State +4.5
ALCO +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.82
HOWA -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Howard (regulation)
ALCO
no forecast
@ 2.87
Draw
no forecast
@ 19.00
HOWA
no forecast
@ 1.47
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Howard under 82.5
70.2%
1.52
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
+9.5pp
Lost
Under 156
71.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Lost
Under 157
73.4%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Lost
Under 157.5
73.9%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Under 156.5
72.0%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+6.0pp
Lost
Under 158
75.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 77.5
77.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 78.5
79.7%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Lost
Under 158.5
75.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
Howard +13.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Alcorn State under 76.5
74.0%
1.32
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 88.5
95.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Overtime: no
95.6%
1.03
WilliamHill
1.04
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.4pp
-
Alcorn State +16.5
79.5%
1.23
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Alcorn State +15.5
76.9%
1.28
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Alcorn State under 80.5
84.6%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Under 160.5
79.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 86.5
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Alcorn State +13.5
71.3%
1.39
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 175.5
95.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Lost
Alcorn State +14.5
74.2%
1.32
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Alcorn State under 81.5
86.7%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 90.5
97.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Howard -2
70.3%
1.39
Bet365
1.39
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Alcorn State under 84.5
91.7%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Alcorn State under 82.5
88.6%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Under 170.5
92.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Lost
Under 165.5
86.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Alcorn State under 79.5
82.3%
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Lost
Howard -1
73.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Howard +8.5
90.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.8pp
Won
Alcorn State under 75.5
70.8%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+2.6pp
Lost
Howard +3.5
81.3%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Howard +1.5
76.0%
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Howard -1.5
71.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.29
-
-
-
+1.8pp
Won
Alcorn State +21.5
89.3%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Howard over 61.5
93.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.6pp
Won
Howard over 60.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3pp
Won
Howard over 62.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Won
Howard over 63.5
91.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Won
Alcorn State +15
76.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Won
Alcorn State +14
73.4%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
-0.2pp
Won
Howard over 64.5
89.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Howard (regulation)
71.4%
1.25
Betano
1.26
Marathon Bet
1.23
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Alcorn State +13
70.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
-0.9pp
Won
Howard over 65.5
87.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
Over 125.5
90.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.2pp
Won
Howard over 69.5
77.7%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Howard over 66.5
85.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Howard over 67.5
83.1%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Won
Howard win
73.8%
1.23
SBO
1.28
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.24
Bet365
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-3.6pp
Won
Howard over 68.5
80.5%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-4.5pp
Won
Howard over 71.5
71.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
Over 130.5
84.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Howard over 70.5
74.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-6.6pp
Won
Over 135.5
75.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.3pp
Won
Free daily update
Get it on Telegram
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which
predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our
Cookie Policy.
Manage Cookies
Strictly Necessary
Always Active
Cookies required to use the site and the features you have asked for. They provide the
pages, predictions and account functions you requested. These are essential for the
operation of our website.
Session and security cookies, your logged-in state, your
subscription status, and the record of this cookie choice itself. These cannot be switched
off because the site cannot be delivered without them.
Functionality Cookies
Cookies that remember the preferences and settings from your last visit, so the site
behaves the way you left it. They do not tell us who you are and they are not used to
build a profile of you.
Your preferred tours and filters, which notices you have dismissed, your
theme choice, and display preferences you have chosen. Kept for up to two years, and you
can clear them from your browser at any time.
These are what "Essential Only" keeps. Choosing "Allow Necessary Cookies
Only" inside this panel switches them off as well.
Performance Cookies
Cookies used to collect information about your usage of the site. These are used to
produce aggregated statistics about visits to our pages. We use these statistics
internally to test and improve the site and to give you a better experience. Without them
our ability to provide a smoother experience may be degraded.
Which pages and predictions are read, how long pages take to
load, and which features are used, including Google Analytics. Reported in
aggregate, never sold, and not used to identify you personally when you are not signed in.
These are off unless you switch them on here or choose "Accept All".
Third Party Marketing/Targeting
Cookies used to deliver adverts relevant to you based on your interests. This can include
limiting the number of times you see an advert as well as helping us measure the
effectiveness of an advert. Without these cookies you will still see adverts, but they
will not be adjusted to your interests.
Set by our advertising partners. Switching these off does not
reduce the number of adverts you see; it only makes them less relevant to you.
🔒
A Pro feature
Filtering, slicing and choosing dates are part of Pro -
unlock every pick, all slicers, Challenger/ITF boards, set scores and games markets.