Arkansas hosts Central Arkansas on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Arkansas as the clear favourite at 96% versus 4% for Central Arkansas, a reflection of Arkansas's higher points per game and lower points allowed per game across all competition games this season. Arkansas has gone 2-1 this season, scoring 84.7 points per game and conceding 68.3, while Central Arkansas also stands at 2-1, averaging 90.7 points per game and allowing 67.0. At home, Arkansas is undefeated 2-0, posting 91.0 points per game and 57.0 allowed, and their last five games include a 76-53 win over Robert Morris, a 72-91 loss to Virginia, and a 106-61 victory over Arkansas-Pine Bluff. Central Arkansas's road record is 0-1, with 60.0 points scored and 92.0 allowed, and their last five games feature a 127-54 win over Ecclesia, a 60-92 loss to Ole Miss, and an 85-55 win over Oral Roberts. In head-to-head play, Arkansas has won all four meetings, most recently 93-56 on 11 November 2025. Pythia projects a 90-69 score, 159.1 total points, and a 49% probability that the total will go over the 159.5 line, with a 1% chance of overtime. The game will likely see Arkansas maintain its dominance, as indicated by the model's high confidence.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Arkansas winWon
96.1%fair 1.04
Best odds1.01
Implied94.1%
Edge+2.0pp
Central Arkansas winLost
3.9%fair 25.54
Best odds34.00
Implied5.9%
Edge-2.0pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Arkansas) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 155.5Actual: Under 155.5
Over 155.5
58.8%
@ 1.52-3.3pp
Under 155.5
41.2%
@ 2.50+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 160.5 · main lineActual: Under 160.5
Over 160.5
46.4%
@ 2.00-3.3pp
Under 160.5
53.6%
@ 1.91+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.83
SBO
1.81
Under
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Over/Under 165.5Actual: Under 165.5
Over 165.5
34.5%
@ 2.72-1.7pp
Under 165.5
65.5%
@ 1.50+1.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.40
Under
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Arkansas total 89Actual: Arkansas under 89
Over 89
54.1%
Under 89
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arkansas total 93 · main lineActual: Arkansas under 93
Over 93
37.4%
@ 1.85-12.8pp
Under 93
62.6%
@ 1.87+12.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Arkansas total 97Actual: Arkansas under 97
Over 97
23.0%
Under 97
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Central Arkansas total 62.5Actual: Central Arkansas over 62.5
Over 62.5
74.6%
@ 1.34+7.0pp
Under 62.5
25.4%
@ 2.80-7.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.80
Central Arkansas total 66.5 · main lineActual: Central Arkansas under 66.5
Over 66.5
60.2%
@ 1.85+9.0pp
Under 66.5
39.8%
@ 2.00-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.86
Marathon Be
1.85
Central Arkansas total 70.5Actual: Central Arkansas under 70.5
Over 70.5
44.3%
@ 2.35+5.8pp
Under 70.5
55.7%
@ 1.47-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Arkansas -28.5Actual: Central Arkansas +28.5
ARKA -28.5
no forecast
@ 2.25
CENT +28.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.18
CENT
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Spread Arkansas -25.5 · main lineActual: Central Arkansas +25.5
ARKA -25.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
CENT +25.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Pinnacle
1.90
Bet365
1.89
Betano
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.81
CENT
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
Spread Arkansas -22.5Actual: Central Arkansas +22.5
ARKA -22.5
43.9%
@ 1.57-15.0pp
CENT +22.5
56.1%
@ 2.25+15.0pp
Best 5 market prices
ARKA
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
CENT
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.25
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
ArkansasCentral Arkansas
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Arkansas under 96.5
74.6%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+13.1pp
Won
Arkansas under 98.5
80.6%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+12.7pp
Won
Arkansas under 95.5
71.3%
1.54
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Arkansas under 97.5
77.7%
1.39
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
Arkansas under 99.5
83.3%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+9.2pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 61.5
77.7%
1.31
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+7.5pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 62.5
74.6%
1.34
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 63.5
71.3%
1.42
Bet365
1.43
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Arkansas (regulation)
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 51.5
96.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 59.5
83.2%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+4.4pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 57.5
87.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 53.5
94.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 55.5
91.3%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Central Arkansas over 56.5
89.7%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Arkansas over 73.5
95.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Arkansas over 72.5
96.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Arkansas win
96.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Arkansas over 75.5
92.8%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Over 134.5
93.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Under 179.5
89.7%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Arkansas over 77.5
89.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Over 139.5
88.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Under 169.5
74.1%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Arkansas -4.5
92.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
83.0%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-1.4pp
Won
Arkansas over 79.5
85.6%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-1.6pp
Lost
Over 144.5
81.8%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-2.6pp
Won
Over 149.5
72.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-2.9pp
Lost
Arkansas over 81.5
80.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.3pp
Lost
Arkansas over 82.5
77.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Lost
Central Arkansas under 79.5
85.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.0pp
Won
Arkansas over 83.5
74.4%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Lost
Central Arkansas under 77.5
80.0%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Arkansas -10.5
81.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.2pp
Won
Central Arkansas under 76.5
77.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Central Arkansas under 75.5
74.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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