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Barcelos vs Illiabum Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 20:30
Projected 73-68
Projected total 140.8
Final 63-82
23-20 15-24 12-18 13-20
Position#13
Record2-3
FormLWLLW
Points / game69.6
Allowed / game74.6
Barcelos
Portugal
Vs
66%
34%
■ BARC 66%■ ILLI 34%
Pythia win probability
Illiabum 🏆
Portugal
Position#10
Record2-3
FormWLWLL
Points / game70.0
Allowed / game74.6
PortugalProligaRound 6· Escola Secundaria de Barcelos
Other2026-27
Meetings · Barcelos v Illiabum
07 Nov 2026
BARC63
ILLI82
03 Jan 2015
BARC85
ILLI80
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Barcelos will host Illiabum in the Proliga on 7 November 2026, with the model designating Barcelos as the favourite and predicting a 66% chance of a home win. Both sides enter the game with identical 2-3 records from all competition games, each averaging 70.0 points per game and conceding 74.6, while Illiabum sits slightly higher in the standings at 11th versus Barcelos' 12th. Barcelos has split its two home games 1-1, scoring 64.0 and allowing 74.0, and has won two of its last five, including a 80-70 victory over Benfica Lisboa B away on 1 November; Illiabum has also won two of five, with a recent 75-70 home win over Galitos Barreiro on 17 October. In their two prior meetings, Barcelos has won both, most recently 75-70 on 11 April 2015. The Pythia model projects a 73-68 scoreline, totaling 140.8 points, with a 2.5-point home line and a 72% probability that Barcelos covers it; the over-142.5 line carries a 45% chance of hitting. The game carries a 5% overtime probability, and Illiabum's road form is 0-2 with 63.5 points scored and 80.0 allowed. The match will hinge on whether Illiabum can overturn its recent struggles on the road.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Barcelos winLost
65.7%fair 1.52
Best odds1.75
Implied53.3%
Edge+12.5pp
Illiabum winWon
34.3%fair 2.92
Best odds2.10
Implied46.7%
Edge-12.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BarcelosPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBarcelos
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#1
L
58-64
58
64
-6
no box
A17/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
68-72
68
72
-4
no box
A22/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
71-62
71
62
+9
no box
A24/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
65-69
65
69
-4
no box
H30/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
56-66
56
66
-10
no box
H01/05
LPB
Lusitania
#3
L
68-73
68
73
-5
57avg 54
A05/10
Proliga
Barreirense
#14
W
81-79 OT
81
79
+2
72avg 54
H10/10
Proliga
Vasco Da Gama
#11
L
72-82
72
82
-10
59avg 54
A17/10
Proliga
Sangalhos
#1
L
47-69
47
69
-22
28avg 54
H24/10
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#15
W
80-70
80
70
+10
no box
A01/11
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-12
13-16
12-12
12-24
26-21
14-12
18-22
10-17
20-15
17-16
19-20
15-11
18-22
20-16
9-13
18-18
10-17
12-19
17-10
17-20
15-19
20-15
16-23
17-16
22-10
19-14
17-18
13-29
20-35
27-10
12-14
13-23
9-15
23-22
6-18
9-14
18-24
24-18
17-15
21-13
137.2Avg total
66.6Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)69.674.6144.2-5.040%
Season at home (2)64.074.0138.0-10.050%
Season away (3)73.375.0148.3-1.733%
Last 10 (10)66.670.6137.2-4.030%
Last 5 (5)69.674.6144.2-5.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)63.072.8135.8-9.720%
vs Similar (7)72.673.3145.9-0.757%
vs Weaker (3)70.760.7131.3+10.0100%
This opponent (Illiabum) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IlliabumPortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormIlliabum
Date
Competition
Imortal B
#9
W
77-40
77
40
+37
74avg 66
A19/04
Proliga
Portimonense
#6
L
59-63
59
63
-4
50avg 66
A25/04
Proliga
Ginasio
#8
W
76-69
76
69
+7
77avg 66
H01/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
L
74-88
74
88
-14
74avg 66
H09/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
L
60-76
60
76
-16
51avg 66
A16/05
Proliga
Academica
#16
W
85-75
85
75
+10
52avg 66
H03/10
Proliga
CB Queluz
#8
L
57-61
57
61
-4
48avg 66
A10/10
Proliga
Galitos Barreiro
#5
W
75-70
75
70
+5
71avg 66
H17/10
Proliga
Sampaense
#7
L
70-99
70
99
-29
53avg 66
A24/10
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#2
L
63-68
63
68
-5
53avg 66
H31/10
Proliga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-7
17-7
23-15
13-11
11-16
18-16
18-8
12-23
24-18
17-20
20-15
15-16
21-27
23-27
16-17
14-17
15-13
8-21
17-13
20-29
18-22
21-16
20-21
26-16
19-24
10-14
19-11
9-12
14-16
22-18
21-25
18-11
18-26
12-21
20-26
20-26
14-12
8-18
18-14
23-24
140.5Avg total
69.6Scored
70.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)70.074.6144.6-4.640%
Season at home (3)74.371.0145.3+3.367%
Season away (2)63.580.0143.5-16.50%
Last 10 (10)69.670.9140.5-1.340%
Last 5 (5)70.074.6144.6-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)63.878.6142.4-14.80%
vs Similar (12)67.269.8137.1-2.642%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)83.269.4152.5+13.885%
This opponent (Barcelos) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 136.5Actual: Over 136.5
Over 136.5
59.7%
Under 136.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 141.5 · main lineActual: Over 141.5
Over 141.5
47.6%
@ 1.91-1.4pp
Under 141.5
52.4%
@ 1.85+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.91
SBO
1.91
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Under
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
SBO
1.76
1xBet
1.61
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Under 146.5
Over 146.5
35.8%
Under 146.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Barcelos total 66.5Actual: Barcelos under 66.5
Over 66.5
72.8%
@ 1.37+9.0pp
Under 66.5
27.2%
@ 2.42-9.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.37
Under
1xBet
2.42
Barcelos total 70.5 · main lineActual: Barcelos under 70.5
Over 70.5
58.4%
@ 1.86+7.6pp
Under 70.5
41.6%
@ 1.95-7.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.72
Under
BetVictor
1.95
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.72
Barcelos total 74.5Actual: Barcelos under 74.5
Over 74.5
42.8%
@ 2.41+6.6pp
Under 74.5
57.2%
@ 1.37-6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.41
Under
1xBet
1.37
Illiabum total 65Actual: Illiabum over 65
Over 65
61.9%
Under 65
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illiabum total 69 · main lineActual: Illiabum over 69
Over 69
46.0%
@ 1.72-4.0pp
Under 69
54.0%
@ 1.72+4.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Under
1xBet
1.72
Illiabum total 73Actual: Illiabum over 73
Over 73
30.8%
Under 73
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Barcelos -0.5Actual: Illiabum +0.5
BARC -0.5
65.7%
ILLI +0.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
BARC
No market prices yet.
ILLI
No market prices yet.
Spread Barcelos +2.5 · main lineActual: Illiabum -2.5
BARC +2.5
72.0%
@ 1.83+22.0pp
ILLI -2.5
28.0%
@ 2.34-22.0pp
Best 5 market prices
BARC
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.42
ILLI
1xBet
2.34
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
SBO
1.83
Spread Barcelos +5.5Actual: Illiabum -5.5
BARC +5.5
80.2%
ILLI -5.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
BARC
No market prices yet.
ILLI
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -4.0-4.0Q4: -1.5-1.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -4.0-4.0Q4: -1.5-1.5
BarcelosIlliabum
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BarcelosLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
FC Porto
#1
W
34-28
34
28
+6
A17/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A22/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A24/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H30/04
LPB
Ovarense
#3
L
22-36
22
36
-14
H01/05
LPB
Lusitania
#3
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A05/10
Proliga
Barreirense
#14
W
41-24
41
24
+17
H10/10
Proliga
Vasco Da Gama
#11
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A17/10
Proliga
Sangalhos
#1
L
32-37
32
37
-5
H24/10
Proliga
Benfica Lisboa B
#15
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A01/11
Proliga
71.6Avg total
36.8Scored
34.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)34.136.971.0-2.840%53%
Last 30 at home (14)34.139.473.5-5.221%64%
Last 30 away (16)34.134.868.9-0.656%44%
Last 10 (10)36.834.871.6+2.060%40%
Last 5 (5)39.436.475.8+3.060%40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)33.938.071.8-4.140%55%
vs Similar (7)34.736.170.9-1.429%57%
vs Weaker (3)34.731.366.0+3.367%33%
This opponent (Illiabum) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
IlliabumLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Imortal B
#9
W
41-14
41
14
+27
A19/04
Proliga
Portimonense
#6
L
29-32
29
32
-3
A25/04
Proliga
Ginasio
#8
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H01/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
L
44-54
44
54
-10
H09/05
Proliga
CAB Madeira
#2
L
23-34
23
34
-11
A16/05
Proliga
Academica
#16
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H03/10
Proliga
CB Queluz
#8
L
29-38
29
38
-9
A10/10
Proliga
Galitos Barreiro
#5
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H17/10
Proliga
Sampaense
#7
L
30-47
30
47
-17
A24/10
Proliga
Galitos Aveiro
#2
L
22-30
22
30
-8
H31/10
Proliga
69.3Avg total
33.4Scored
35.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 69.5
Last 30 (30)36.735.071.6+1.753%60%
Last 30 at home (15)39.934.974.9+5.073%73%
Last 30 away (15)33.435.068.4-1.633%47%
Last 10 (10)33.435.969.3-2.540%50%
Last 5 (5)31.237.468.6-6.240%60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)27.835.663.4-7.820%20%
vs Similar (12)34.236.670.8-2.333%50%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)42.333.275.5+9.185%85%
This opponent (Barcelos) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: Illiabum win
BARC win
no forecast
@ 1.80
ILLI win
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Barcelos -0.5 · main lineActual: Illiabum +0.5
BARC -0.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
ILLI +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 69.5 · main lineActual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
Barcelos 1st half total 35.5 · main lineActual: Barcelos over 35.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.80
Illiabum 1st half total 35.5 · main lineActual: Illiabum over 35.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.86
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half: BARC + total 70.5
BARC & over
no forecast
@ 3.65
BARC & under
no forecast
@ 3.45
1st half: Draw + total 70.5
Draw & over
no forecast
@ 29.00
Draw & under
no forecast
@ 26.00
1st half: ILLI + total 70.5
ILLI & over
no forecast
@ 4.00
ILLI & under
no forecast
@ 3.75
1st half Over/Under 71Actual: Over 71
Over
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under
no forecast
@ 1.76
1st half Spread Barcelos -1.5Actual: Illiabum +1.5
BARC -1.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
ILLI +1.5
no forecast
@ 1.70
1st half Spread Barcelos +0.5Actual: Illiabum -0.5
BARC +0.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
ILLI -0.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Illiabum (regulation)
BARC
no forecast
@ 1.85
Draw
no forecast
@ 16.50
ILLI
no forecast
@ 2.02

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
BARC win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
ILLI win + total 141.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: BARC leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ILLI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Team with the highest-scoring quarter
🔒 Pro
Highest-scoring half
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Barcelos +270.9%1.91
SBO
1.91		----+22.9ppLost
Barcelos +2.572.0%1.74
Bet365
1.83
Betfair
1.83
SBO
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.42		+22.0ppLost
Barcelos +373.9%1.76
SBO
1.76		----+21.9ppLost
Barcelos over 65.576.0%1.32
1xBet
1.32		----+9.0ppLost
Barcelos over 66.572.8%1.37
1xBet
1.37		----+9.0ppLost
Barcelos +3.574.6%1.35
1xBet
1.35		----+9.0ppLost
Barcelos +4.577.5%1.29
1xBet
1.29		----+8.5ppLost
Barcelos over 64.578.9%1.24
1xBet
1.24		----+8.2ppLost
Illiabum under 74.573.4%1.30
1xBet
1.30		----+5.2ppLost
Illiabum under 73.570.2%1.35
1xBet
1.35		----+5.1ppLost
Overtime: no95.0%1.03
Betano
1.03		----+3.9pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Barcelostheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Barcelos: 66.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.5 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.0 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.2 points a game
50%
30%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.016.2
49.2%
52.8%32.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.86.0
20.2%
30.4%18.0
🏀 Free throws24.216.0
66.0%
67.0%16.0
They take 62.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illiabumtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illiabum: 65.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers17.1 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.2 points a game
50%
30%
20%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.017.4
48.3%
52.8%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.35.7
29.5%
30.4%17.1
🏀 Free throws20.513.9
67.8%
67.0%13.9
They take 55.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 19.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 4/10 games with a box score before 07 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Barcelos
WLLWLLLWLL
Illiabum
LLWLWLLWLW
#13
League position
#10
-10.0
Net rating
-3.7
71.6
Offensive rating
83.3
81.5
Defensive rating
87.0
40.2%
Effective FG%
46.9%
43.3%
Opp. effective FG%
49.7%
19.7%
Turnover %
18.4%
0.39
Free-throw rate
0.37
20.2%
3-point %
29.5%
47.2%
Assist %
64.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence71.6 · 83.3Defence81.5 · 87.0Shooting40.2% · 46.9%3-point %20.2% · 29.5%Ball care19.7% · 18.4%Free throws0.39 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Barcelos   ■ Illiabum
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Barcelos wins
0
Illiabum wins
DateGameScore
11/04/15Illiabum v Barcelos70-75
03/01/15Barcelos v Illiabum85-80
Barceloslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/11/26ABenfica Lisboa B80-70
24/10/26HSangalhos47-69
17/10/26AVasco Da Gama72-82
10/10/26HBarreirense81-79 OT
05/10/26ALusitania68-73
01/05/16HOvarense56-66
30/04/16HOvarense65-69
24/04/16AOvarense71-62
22/04/16AOvarense68-72
17/04/16AFC Porto58-64
Illiabumlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/10/26HGalitos Aveiro63-68
24/10/26ASampaense70-99
17/10/26HGalitos Barreiro75-70
10/10/26ACB Queluz57-61
03/10/26HAcademica85-75
16/05/26ACAB Madeira60-76
09/05/26HCAB Madeira74-88
01/05/26HGinasio76-69
25/04/26APortimonense59-63
19/04/26AImortal B77-40

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Barcelos
Proliga 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW40%
HomeWL50%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%50%33%
Points / game69.664.073.3
Allowed / game74.674.075.0
Point differential-5.0-10.0-1.7
Avg total144.2138.0148.3
Over 141.560%50%67%
Win by 10+20%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %20%50%0%
Illiabum
Proliga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL40%
HomeWWL67%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%67%0%
Points / game70.074.363.5
Allowed / game74.671.080.0
Point differential-4.6+3.3-16.5
Avg total144.6145.3143.5
Over 141.560%67%50%
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sangalhos65183%75.060.5+14.5
2 Galitos Aveiro65183%79.272.0+7.2
3 Lusitania64267%81.372.3+9.0
4 Santo Andre64267%78.776.2+2.5
5 Galitos Barreiro64267%74.373.0+1.3
6 Galomar53260%77.269.0+8.2
7 Sampaense53260%87.681.6+6.0
8 CB Queluz53260%71.071.0+0.0
9 Maia53260%86.888.2-1.4
10 Illiabum52340%70.074.6-4.6
11 Barcelos52340%69.674.6-5.0
12 Vasco Da Gama62433%85.888.8-3.0
13 Ginasio Olhanense62433%84.788.7-4.0
14 Barreirense62433%76.885.3-8.5
15 Benfica Lisboa B61517%67.780.7-13.0
16 Academica6060%79.388.0-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Barcelos2315121363
Illiabum2024182082
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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