Barnaul hosts Tambov on 2 November 2026 in the Super League, with the Pythia model designating Barnaul as the favourite and projecting an 80-78 win; the model gives Barnaul a 59% chance to win and Tambov a 41% chance, with a 5% likelihood of overtime. Barnaul, 1-5 in 6 games, averages 78.7 points and allows 86.7, sitting 13th in the league, and has won only one of its last five, a 78-74 victory over Metallurg on 22 October, while Tambov, 2-3 in 5 games, averages 72.2 points and allows 73.0, positioned 7th, has won two of its last five, including an 83-76 win over Izhevsk on 25 October. In the 10 meetings between the clubs, Tambov leads 7-3, though Barnaul last defeated Tambov 94-75 on 16 April. The Pythia model sets a -9.5 spread for Barnaul with a 27% chance of covering and a 157 point total line with a 52% probability of the over, projecting a total of 158.2 points for the game. The last encounter saw Barnaul beat Tambov 94-75, a result that echoes the current projected margin.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Barnaul winWon
59.2%fair 1.69
Best odds1.37
Implied70.1%
Edge-10.8pp
Tambov winLost
40.8%fair 2.45
Best odds3.09
Implied29.9%
Edge+10.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 31 Oct 14:21 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Barnaul) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 152Actual: Under 152
Over 152
64.3%
Under 152
35.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 157 · main lineActual: Under 157
Over 157
52.2%
@ 1.89+2.7pp
Under 157
47.8%
@ 1.85-2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.89
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathon Be
1.81
1xBet
1.81
Over/Under 162Actual: Under 162
Over 162
40.0%
Under 162
60.0%
@ 1.52
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
Marathon Be
1.52
📊 3. Team Totals
Barnaul total 77.5Actual: Barnaul over 77.5
Over 77.5
61.1%
Under 77.5
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barnaul total 81.5 · main lineActual: Barnaul under 81.5
Over 81.5
45.7%
@ 1.83-4.3pp
Under 81.5
54.3%
@ 1.83+4.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Barnaul total 85.5Actual: Barnaul under 85.5
Over 85.5
30.9%
Under 85.5
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tambov total 70Actual: Tambov under 70
Over 70
78.1%
Under 70
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tambov total 74 · main lineActual: Tambov under 74
Over 74
64.5%
@ 1.83+14.5pp
Under 74
35.5%
@ 1.83-14.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Tambov total 78Actual: Tambov under 78
Over 78
48.7%
Under 78
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Barnaul -12.5Actual: Tambov +12.5
BARN -12.5
19.4%
TAMB +12.5
80.6%
@ 1.53
Best 5 market prices
BARN
No market prices yet.
TAMB
Marathon Be
1.53
Spread Barnaul -9.5 · main lineActual: Barnaul -9.5
BARN -9.5
27.4%
@ 1.84-20.2pp
TAMB +9.5
72.6%
@ 1.83+20.2pp
Best 5 market prices
BARN
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.84
TAMB
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.53
Spread Barnaul -6.5Actual: Barnaul -6.5
BARN -6.5
37.3%
@ 1.96-10.3pp
TAMB +6.5
62.7%
@ 1.82+10.3pp
Best 5 market prices
BARN
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.85
TAMB
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Pinnacle
1.78
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
BarnaulTambov
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BABarnaulLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dynamo Vladivostok
#3
W
19-17
19
17
+2
H25/03
Super League
Metallurg
#11
L
15-20
15
20
-5
A14/04
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
L
15-17
15
17
-2
H15/04
Super League
Tambov
#13
W
16-12
16
12
+4
A16/04
Super League
Ufa
#1
L
20-28
20
28
-8
A01/10
Super League
Temp Sumz Revda
#2
L
19-25
19
25
-6
A04/10
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
W
14-13
14
13
+1
H12/10
Super League
Dynamo Grozny
#3
L
17-24
17
24
-7
H15/10
Super League
Metallurg
#9
L
21-23
21
23
-2
A22/10
Super League
Chelyabinsk
#4
W
26-24
26
24
+2
A25/10
Super League
38.5Avg total
18.2Scored
20.3Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)
18.5
20.3
38.8
-1.9
40%
53%
Last 30 at home (14)
18.9
18.8
37.7
+0.1
57%
43%
Last 30 away (16)
18.1
21.7
39.8
-3.6
25%
62%
Last 10 (10)
18.2
20.3
38.5
-2.1
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
19.4
21.8
41.2
-2.4
40%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (26)
18.6
20.5
39.1
-1.9
42%
54%
vs Similar ◀ (4)
17.8
19.2
37.0
-1.5
25%
50%
vs Weaker
no games
This opponent (Tambov) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TATambovLast 10 – 1st quarter points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Temp Sumz Revda
#2
L
14-34
14
34
-20
H22/03
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#7
L
13-19
13
19
-6
H28/03
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
L
13-24
13
24
-11
A14/04
Super League
Metallurg
#11
W
23-13
23
13
+10
H15/04
Super League
Barnaul
#14
L
12-16
12
16
-4
H16/04
Super League
CSKA Moscow 2
#5
W
14-10
14
10
+4
A01/10
Super League
Dynamo Grozny
#3
L
19-24
19
24
-5
A04/10
Super League
Metallurg
#9
L
16-20
16
20
-4
H12/10
Super League
Chelyabinsk
#4
W
22-19
22
19
+3
H15/10
Super League
Izhevsk
#12
L
20-21
20
21
-1
H25/10
Super League
36.6Avg total
16.6Scored
20.0Allowed
1st quarter
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the quarter
Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)
17.0
20.5
37.5
-3.5
37%
33%
Last 30 at home (15)
18.1
19.3
37.3
-1.2
40%
40%
Last 30 away (15)
15.9
21.7
37.6
-5.9
33%
27%
Last 10 (10)
16.6
20.0
36.6
-3.4
30%
40%
Last 5 (5)
18.2
18.8
37.0
-0.6
40%
60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (24)
16.5
21.0
37.6
-4.5
33%
29%
vs Similar ◀ (5)
18.4
17.8
36.2
+0.6
60%
40%
vs Weaker (1)
20.0
21.0
41.0
-1.0
0%
100%
This opponent (Barnaul) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st quarter bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
Q1 Spread Barnaul -2 · main lineActual: Barnaul -2
BARN -2
no forecast
@ 1.82
TAMB +2
no forecast
@ 1.84
Q1 Over/Under 40.5 · main lineActual: Over 40.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.83
Barnaul 1st quarter total 20.5 · main lineActual: Barnaul over 20.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.84
Tambov 1st quarter total 18.5 · main lineActual: Tambov under 18.5
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Tambov +10
74.7%
1.77
Marathon Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Lost
Tambov +11
77.5%
1.66
Marathon Bet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
-
-
-
+23.0pp
Push
Tambov +10.5
75.5%
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
-
-
-
+22.4pp
Lost
Tambov +9
71.7%
1.72
1xBet
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.56
-
-
-
+20.7pp
Lost
Tambov +9.5
72.6%
1.68
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.53
-
-
-
+20.2pp
Lost
Tambov +12.5
80.6%
1.53
Marathon Bet
1.53
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Tambov +12
80.1%
1.57
Marathon Bet
1.57
-
-
-
-
-
Won
Tambov +11.5
78.2%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.62
-
-
-
-
-
Won
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Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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