Belmont faces Furman on 14 November 2026 in the NCAA, and Pythia rates Belmont the clear favourite, assigning a 75% chance of victory largely because their season record of 2-1 and a points-per-game advantage of 74.0 over 62.3 set them apart from Furman's undefeated 4-0 record and 94.5 points per game. Belmont's home form is flawless, 2-0 with 73.5 points scored and only 49.5 allowed, while Furman remains unbeaten on the road, 2-0 with 79.5 points and 68.5 allowed. In the last five games each side has won two of five, with Belmont's recent loss to Lipscomb 75-88 away and Furman's recent win over Holy Cross 80-67 away. Their head-to-head history shows Furman with three wins to Belmont's one, the last meeting ending 76-74 for Furman on 8 November 2024. Pythia projects a 80-72 score, a total of 152.2, and a 69% probability that Belmont covers the home line of -2.5, while the over on the 153.5 total has a 46% chance, and there is a 4% chance of overtime. Belmont's dominant home defence and Furman's high-scoring offence make this a tight but likely Belmont win.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Belmont winWon
75.3%fair 1.33
Best odds1.69
Implied57.3%
Edge+18.1pp
Furman winLost
24.7%fair 4.06
Best odds2.26
Implied42.7%
Edge-18.1pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Belmont) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 149.5Actual: Under 149.5
Over 149.5
55.8%
@ 1.50-6.6pp
Under 149.5
44.2%
@ 2.55+6.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Under
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 154.5 · main lineActual: Under 154.5
Over 154.5
43.7%
@ 1.91-6.5pp
Under 154.5
56.3%
@ 1.91+6.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Over/Under 159.5Actual: Under 159.5
Over 159.5
32.3%
@ 2.55-4.8pp
Under 159.5
67.7%
@ 1.47+4.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Belmont total 74Actual: Belmont under 74
Over 74
73.1%
Under 74
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Belmont total 78 · main lineActual: Belmont under 78
Over 78
58.0%
@ 1.85+7.9pp
Under 78
42.0%
@ 1.86-7.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Under
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Belmont total 82Actual: Belmont under 82
Over 82
41.6%
Under 82
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Furman total 72Actual: Furman under 72
Over 72
50.2%
Under 72
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Furman total 76 · main lineActual: Furman under 76
Over 76
34.6%
@ 1.86-15.3pp
Under 76
65.4%
@ 1.85+15.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
Furman total 80Actual: Furman under 80
Over 80
21.5%
Under 80
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Belmont -5.5Actual: Belmont -5.5
BELM -5.5
58.8%
@ 2.25+17.5pp
FURM +5.5
41.2%
@ 1.57-17.5pp
Best 5 market prices
BELM
Bet365
2.25
Betano
2.22
FURM
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Spread Belmont -2.5 · main lineActual: Belmont -2.5
BELM -2.5
69.2%
@ 1.88+18.1pp
FURM +2.5
30.8%
@ 1.96-18.1pp
Best 5 market prices
BELM
Bet365
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
FURM
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
Bet365
1.93
BetVictor
1.91
Marathon Be
1.90
Spread Belmont +0.5Actual: Belmont +0.5
BELM +0.5
75.3%
FURM -0.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
BELM
No market prices yet.
FURM
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
BelmontFurman
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Belmont (regulation)
72.9%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
+19.1pp
Won
Belmont -2
71.9%
1.77
Pinnacle
1.79
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.76
Bet365
1.74
-
+18.4pp
Won
Belmont win
75.3%
1.65
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.68
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.65
Marathon Bet
1.63
+18.1pp
Won
Belmont -1
74.8%
1.67
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.66
-
-
-
+18.1pp
Won
Belmont +1
76.9%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
Belmont -1.5
73.0%
1.72
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.70
-
+17.6pp
Won
Belmont +2.5
80.4%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+17.0pp
Won
Belmont +2
79.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Belmont +1.5
77.4%
1.54
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
+16.8pp
Won
Belmont +3.5
82.5%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+16.1pp
Won
Belmont +3
82.1%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+16.0pp
Won
Belmont +4
84.4%
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Belmont +4.5
84.7%
1.34
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+15.4pp
Won
Belmont +5
86.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+15.2pp
Won
Belmont +5.5
86.7%
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.29
-
-
-
+15.0pp
Won
Furman under 78.5
73.3%
1.53
Betano
1.53
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
Furman under 77.5
70.1%
1.62
Betano
1.62
-
-
-
-
+14.2pp
Won
Belmont +7.5
90.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+13.9pp
Won
Furman under 79.5
76.3%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Furman under 80.5
79.1%
1.38
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
-
+13.3pp
Won
Belmont +12.5
95.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Belmont +17.5
98.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+8.3pp
Won
Belmont over 74.5
70.6%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+6.7pp
Lost
Belmont +22.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Belmont over 73.5
73.9%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
Belmont over 72.5
77.0%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Lost
Overtime: no
95.8%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Belmont over 71.5
79.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
Under 161.5
71.9%
1.37
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+4.5pp
Won
Under 161
71.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.3pp
Won
Belmont over 68.5
87.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Belmont over 69.5
85.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+4.0pp
Won
Under 162
73.4%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+3.9pp
Won
Under 162.5
73.9%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.4pp
Won
Belmont under 97.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Belmont under 98.5
96.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0pp
Won
Under 164.5
77.6%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
-
+2.9pp
Won
Belmont under 95.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 169.5
85.4%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 174.5
91.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Belmont under 93.5
91.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Won
Furman +22.5
89.9%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.3pp
Won
Belmont under 91.5
87.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.5pp
Won
Over 129.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.6pp
Won
Furman over 57.5
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Furman over 58.5
90.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.3pp
Won
Belmont under 88.5
80.3%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.0pp
Won
Belmont under 89.5
82.9%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Furman over 59.5
89.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Belmont under 87.5
77.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Furman over 60.5
87.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.5pp
Won
Over 134.5
85.8%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.6pp
Lost
Belmont under 85.5
71.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-4.3pp
Won
Furman over 61.5
85.1%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Furman +17.5
80.6%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Furman over 62.5
82.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-6.3pp
Lost
Over 139.5
77.7%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Lost
Furman over 63.5
80.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-8.3pp
Lost
Furman over 64.5
77.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Lost
Furman over 65.5
74.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-11.0pp
Lost
Furman over 66.5
70.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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