Brigham Young will host Ohio State on 2 November 2026 in a low-scoring NCAA matchup where the Pythia model expects a tight contest, projecting a final score of 78-76 in favour of the Cougars. Brigham Young has won 3 of its last 5 games, including a 68-48 victory over West Virginia away, while Ohio State has also won 3 of its last 5, highlighted by a 72-69 win over Iowa at home. The model gives Brigham Young a 57% chance to win and Ohio State a 43% chance, with the Cougars the favourite. The spread is set at -3.5 for Brigham Young, and the probability that they cover is 46%. The over-under line is 161.0, with a 31% chance of the total exceeding that figure. The model estimates a 5% chance of overtime. Brigham Young's recent loss to Texas 71-79 at home on 19 March 2026 and Ohio State's loss to Michigan 67-71 away on 13 March 2026 illustrate the defensive intensity both teams will bring to the game.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 76.2 | 77.7 | 153.9 | -1.5 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 78.4 | 73.4 | 151.8 | +5.0 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 72.4 | 76.0 | 148.4 | -3.6 | 20% |
| vs Similar (13) | 77.0 | 75.0 | 152.0 | +2.0 | 62% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 93.8 | 78.5 | 172.2 | +15.2 | 83% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 73.9 | 69.9 | 143.8 | +4.0 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 77.6 | 69.2 | 146.8 | +8.4 | 60% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 70.2 | 76.8 | 147.0 | -6.7 | 17% |
| vs Similar (12) | 74.8 | 74.8 | 149.6 | -0.1 | 42% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 85.7 | 68.6 | 154.2 | +17.1 | 92% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.2 | 38.1 | 75.3 | -0.9 | 47% | 50% |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 38.7 | 37.9 | 76.6 | +0.8 | 59% | 47% |
| Last 30 away (13) | 35.3 | 38.4 | 73.7 | -3.1 | 31% | 54% |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.6 | 40.8 | 76.4 | -5.2 | 40% | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 39.4 | 40.2 | 79.6 | -0.8 | 60% | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (5) | 35.4 | 38.0 | 73.4 | -2.6 | 40% | 40% |
| vs Similar (13) | 32.4 | 38.3 | 70.7 | -5.9 | 15% | 31% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 43.2 | 37.9 | 81.2 | +5.3 | 83% | 75% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over 76.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 36.8 | 34.2 | 71.0 | +2.6 | 50% | 33% |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 38.2 | 33.9 | 72.1 | +4.3 | 56% | 39% |
| Last 30 away (12) | 34.8 | 34.7 | 69.4 | +0.1 | 42% | 25% |
| Last 10 (10) | 34.8 | 31.6 | 66.4 | +3.2 | 60% | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.6 | 32.4 | 70.0 | +5.2 | 60% | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (6) | 34.7 | 38.8 | 73.5 | -4.2 | 17% | 33% |
| vs Similar (12) | 34.4 | 34.8 | 69.2 | -0.3 | 50% | 25% |
| vs Weaker (12) | 40.2 | 31.3 | 71.6 | +8.9 | 67% | 42% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 162 | 71.3% | 1.75 | 1.79 | 1.75 | 1.71 | - | - | +18.2pp | Lost |
| Under 162.5 | 71.9% | 1.70 | 1.75 | 1.71 | 1.68 | 1.67 | - | +17.6pp | Lost |
| Under 163 | 73.3% | 1.65 | 1.66 | 1.64 | - | - | - | +16.9pp | Lost |
| Under 164 | 75.3% | 1.58 | 1.58 | - | - | - | - | +16.9pp | Lost |
| Under 164.5 | 75.7% | 1.55 | 1.55 | 1.55 | - | - | - | +16.2pp | Lost |
| Under 163.5 | 73.9% | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.60 | - | - | - | +16.1pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 83.5 | 72.0% | 1.62 | 1.62 | - | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Lost |
| Under 165 | 77.1% | 1.52 | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | +15.9pp | Lost |
| Under 165.5 | 77.5% | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Lost |
| Under 166 | 78.9% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +15.5pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 84.5 | 75.2% | 1.53 | 1.54 | 1.53 | 1.52 | - | - | +14.8pp | Lost |
| Under 166.5 | 79.3% | 1.44 | 1.44 | 1.43 | - | - | - | +14.7pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 85.5 | 78.2% | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.44 | - | - | +14.7pp | Lost |
| Under 167 | 80.6% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +14.5pp | Lost |
| Under 167.5 | 80.9% | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.38 | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 86.5 | 80.9% | 1.37 | 1.38 | 1.36 | - | - | - | +14.2pp | Lost |
| Under 168 | 82.1% | 1.35 | 1.35 | - | - | - | - | +13.2pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 87.5 | 83.4% | 1.32 | 1.34 | 1.30 | - | - | - | +13.1pp | Lost |
| Under 168.5 | 82.4% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +12.9pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 89.5 | 87.8% | 1.23 | 1.23 | - | - | - | - | +12.5pp | Lost |
| Ohio State under 82.5 | 74.9% | 1.47 | 1.50 | 1.44 | - | - | - | +12.1pp | Lost |
| Ohio State under 81.5 | 71.7% | 1.53 | 1.57 | 1.52 | 1.50 | - | - | +12.1pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 88.5 | 85.7% | 1.25 | 1.26 | 1.25 | - | - | - | +11.8pp | Lost |
| Under 170.5 | 85.2% | 1.25 | 1.25 | - | - | - | - | +10.8pp | Lost |
| Ohio State under 83.5 | 77.8% | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +9.8pp | Won |
| Brigham Young under 90.5 | 89.6% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.14 | - | - | - | +9.5pp | Lost |
| Brigham Young under 91.5 | 91.2% | 1.14 | 1.15 | 1.12 | - | - | - | +9.4pp | Lost |
| Ohio State under 84.5 | 80.5% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +9.4pp | Won |
| Under 175.5 | 90.8% | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | - | - | +8.5pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +11 | 79.3% | 1.30 | 1.30 | - | - | - | - | +7.9pp | Push |
| Ohio State +9 | 73.8% | 1.40 | 1.40 | - | - | - | - | +7.5pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +8 | 70.6% | 1.47 | 1.47 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +10 | 76.7% | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | - | - | - | +7.2pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +23.5 | 96.4% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Won |
| Ohio State +9.5 | 74.5% | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.34 | - | - | - | +6.7pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +13.5 | 84.3% | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Ohio State +10.5 | 77.3% | 1.31 | 1.33 | 1.29 | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +11.5 | 79.9% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1.24 | - | - | - | +6.5pp | Won |
| Ohio State +8.5 | 71.6% | 1.42 | 1.44 | 1.40 | - | - | - | +6.3pp | Lost |
| Ohio State +18.5 | 92.2% | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | - | +6.1pp | Won |
| Brigham Young +21.5 | 97.3% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +4.5pp | Won |
| Brigham Young +16.5 | 94.0% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +4.4pp | Won |
| Overtime: no | 94.6% | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.03 | - | - | - | +4.2pp | - |
| Brigham Young +11.5 | 87.6% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +2.0pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 59.5 | 94.1% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +0.4pp | Won |
| Brigham Young +6.5 | 76.3% | 1.22 | 1.22 | - | - | - | - | +0.1pp | Won |
| Brigham Young +5.5 | 73.3% | 1.26 | 1.26 | - | - | - | - | +0.1pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 61.5 | 91.4% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -0.1pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 62.5 | 92.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -0.9pp | Won |
| Brigham Young +4.5 | 70.2% | 1.29 | 1.31 | 1.28 | - | - | - | -1.3pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 63.5 | 91.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -1.4pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 64.5 | 89.8% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -1.7pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 63.5 | 87.9% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -2.3pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 65.5 | 87.9% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | -3.2pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 66.5 | 85.8% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | -4.6pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 65.5 | 83.6% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -4.7pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 67.5 | 83.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -6.1pp | Won |
| Over 135.5 | 85.6% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -6.7pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 67.5 | 78.3% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -7.3pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 68.5 | 81.0% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -7.7pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 68.5 | 75.3% | 1.12 | 1.12 | - | - | - | - | -7.8pp | Won |
| Ohio State over 69.5 | 72.1% | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.14 | - | - | - | -8.9pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 69.5 | 78.3% | 1.07 | 1.07 | - | - | - | - | -9.3pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 70.5 | 75.3% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | -10.3pp | Won |
| Over 140.5 | 77.4% | 1.05 | 1.05 | - | - | - | - | -11.6pp | Won |
| Brigham Young over 71.5 | 72.1% | 1.11 | 1.11 | - | - | - | - | -12.3pp | Won |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 | H | Texas | 71-79 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Houston | 66-73 |
| 11/03/26 | A | West Virginia | 68-48 |
| 10/03/26 | H | Kansas State | 105-91 |
| 08/03/26 | H | Texas Tech | 82-76 |
| 04/03/26 | A | Cincinnati | 68-90 |
| 28/02/26 | A | West Virginia | 71-79 |
| 25/02/26 | H | UCF Knights | 84-97 |
| 22/02/26 | H | Iowa State | 79-69 |
| 19/02/26 | A | Arizona | 68-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/03/26 | H | TCU | 64-66 |
| 13/03/26 | A | Michigan | 67-71 |
| 12/03/26 | H | Iowa | 72-69 |
| 07/03/26 | H | Indiana | 91-78 |
| 05/03/26 | A | Penn State | 94-62 |
| 01/03/26 | H | Purdue | 82-74 |
| 26/02/26 | A | Iowa | 57-74 |
| 22/02/26 | A | Michigan State | 60-66 |
| 18/02/26 | H | Wisconsin | 86-69 |
| 15/02/26 | H | Virginia | 66-70 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 161 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over 161 | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 46.0 | +45.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 98.0 | 59.0 | +39.0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 76.0 | 42.0 | +34.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 95.0 | 65.0 | +30.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 53.0 | +26.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 95.0 | +1.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% | 76.0 | 80.0 | -4.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 120.0 | 45.0 | +75.0 | |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 106.0 | 64.0 | +42.0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 97.0 | 57.0 | +40.0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 59.0 | +37.0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 91.0 | 57.0 | +34.0 | |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 96.0 | 67.0 | +29.0 | |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 86.0 | 60.0 | +26.0 | |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 84.0 | 68.0 | +16.0 | |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 75.0 | 68.0 | +7.0 | |
| 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 78.0 | 72.0 | +6.0 |
| Team | 1H | 2H | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 60 | 94 | |
| 37 | 46 | 83 |
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