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Bulgaria vs Portugal Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 26 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 16:00
Final 90-82
19-19 24-21 27-18 20-24
Position#13
Record4-1
FormWLLWW
Points / game77.4
Allowed / game68.4
vs
Position#14
Record5-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game86.4
Allowed / game66.8
EuropeEuroBasketRound 6· Arena Botevgrad
Other2023
Meetings · Bulgaria v Portugal
26 Feb 2023
BULG90
PORT82
12 Aug 2017
BULG91
PORT65
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bulgaria winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Portugal winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BulgariaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBulgaria
Date
Competition
Cyprus
#40
W
88-55
88
55
+33
93avg 73
H25/08
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
84-72
84
72
+12
75avg 73
H28/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#1
L
87-114
87
114
-27
no box
A01/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#22
L
87-101
87
101
-14
no box
H03/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#24
L
81-91
81
91
-10
no box
H04/09
EuroBasket
Georgia
#26
W
92-80
92
80
+12
no box
A06/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#5
L
80-89
80
89
-9
no box
H07/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
L
78-88
78
88
-10
74avg 73
A10/11
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
75-66
75
66
+9
74avg 73
A13/11
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
62-61
62
61
+1
49avg 73
A23/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-15
29-15
16-11
24-14
29-19
12-15
23-20
20-18
17-28
18-29
31-32
21-25
29-31
23-19
19-25
16-26
21-21
25-24
12-22
23-24
14-18
25-20
27-19
26-23
19-20
11-21
30-25
20-23
20-21
32-23
12-23
14-21
16-8
17-13
24-27
18-18
16-12
15-13
13-19
18-17
163.1Avg total
81.4Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.468.4145.8+9.080%
Season at home (2)86.063.5149.5+22.5100%
Season away (3)71.771.7143.3+0.067%
Last 10 (10)81.481.7163.1-0.350%
Last 5 (5)77.476.8154.2+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)73.785.6159.4-11.924%
vs Similar ◀ (11)77.379.2156.5-1.945%
vs Weaker (2)81.560.5142.0+21.0100%
This opponent (Portugal) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPortugal
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#14
L
69-83
69
83
-14
no box
A29/11
World Cup
France
#8
L
56-94
56
94
-38
no box
A24/02
World Cup
France
#8
L
56-69
56
69
-13
no box
H27/02
World Cup
Hungary
#42
L
68-69
68
69
-1
no box
A01/07
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
L
62-77
62
77
-15
no box
H04/07
World Cup
Romania
#16
W
75-59
75
59
+16
72avg 85
A25/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
102-69
102
69
+33
108avg 85
H28/08
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
W
88-78
88
78
+10
85avg 85
H10/11
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
92-62
92
62
+30
89avg 85
H13/11
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
75-66
75
66
+9
71avg 85
A23/02
EuroBasket
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-24
22-17
20-23
13-19
17-15
16-22
11-27
12-30
16-17
19-17
8-15
13-20
13-21
18-19
21-13
16-16
14-19
16-26
21-21
11-11
17-14
25-16
19-19
14-10
35-17
23-22
23-18
21-12
21-20
23-32
23-12
21-14
27-14
27-27
18-10
20-11
21-9
17-27
26-22
11-8
146.9Avg total
74.3Scored
72.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)86.466.8153.2+19.6100%
Season at home (3)94.069.7163.7+24.3100%
Season away (2)75.062.5137.5+12.5100%
Last 10 (10)74.372.6146.9+1.750%
Last 5 (5)86.466.8153.2+19.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)63.874.4138.2-10.620%
vs Similar ◀ (7)77.080.9157.9-3.957%
vs Weaker (13)80.565.5146.0+14.985%
This opponent (Bulgaria) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.1+0.1
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: -1.9-1.9Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.1+0.1
BulgariaPortugal
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BulgariaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cyprus
#40
W
48-30
48
30
+18
H25/08
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H28/08
EuroBasket
Spain
#1
L
35-57
35
57
-22
A01/09
EuroBasket
Turkey
#22
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H03/09
EuroBasket
Montenegro
#24
W
46-45
46
45
+1
H04/09
EuroBasket
Georgia
#26
W
39-38
39
38
+1
A06/09
EuroBasket
Belgium
#5
L
30-41
30
41
-11
H07/09
EuroBasket
Portugal
#14
W
52-44
52
44
+8
A10/11
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
33-21
33
21
+12
A13/11
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
31-25
31
25
+6
A23/02
EuroBasket
79.2Avg total
40.7Scored
38.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.040.678.6-2.640%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.941.081.9-0.153%-
Last 30 away (15)35.140.275.3-5.127%-
Last 10 (10)40.738.579.2+2.280%-
Last 5 (5)37.033.870.8+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.142.678.7-6.629%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)40.540.280.7+0.445%-
vs Weaker (2)40.525.566.0+15.0100%-
This opponent (Portugal) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PortugalLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Montenegro
#14
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A29/11
World Cup
France
#8
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A24/02
World Cup
France
#8
W
35-34
35
34
+1
H27/02
World Cup
Hungary
#42
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A01/07
World Cup
Montenegro
#14
L
30-45
30
45
-15
H04/07
World Cup
Romania
#16
W
42-30
42
30
+12
A25/08
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
58-39
58
39
+19
H28/08
EuroBasket
Bulgaria
#13
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H10/11
EuroBasket
Romania
#16
W
54-41
54
41
+13
H13/11
EuroBasket
Cyprus
#40
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A23/02
EuroBasket
79.6Avg total
40.1Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.136.575.6+2.660%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.736.076.7+4.773%-
Last 30 away (15)37.537.174.6+0.547%-
Last 10 (10)40.139.579.6+0.650%-
Last 5 (5)47.239.686.8+7.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)33.934.968.8-1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)38.142.380.4-4.143%-
vs Weaker (13)43.634.778.3+8.977%-
This opponent (Bulgaria) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bulgariatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bulgaria: 76.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.417.8
47.6%
50.6%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.69.4
34.1%
32.5%28.2
🏀 Free throws15.612.4
79.5%
71.4%12.4
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Portugaltheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Portugal: 85.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 74.8 points a game
47%
35%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.822.2
57.2%
50.6%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.69.8
36.8%
32.5%29.4
🏀 Free throws17.611.8
67.0%
71.4%11.8
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 5/5 games with a box score before 26 Feb 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Bulgaria
WWLLWLLLWW
Portugal
WWWWWLLLLL
#13
League position
#14
+11.9
Net rating
+27.1
105.4
Offensive rating
118.4
93.5
Defensive rating
91.3
49.1%
Effective FG%
56.4%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
47.6%
19.4%
Turnover %
16.9%
35.1%
Off. rebound %
37.6%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.1%
3-point %
36.8%
72.1%
Assist %
67.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence105.4 · 118.4Defence93.5 · 91.3Shooting49.1% · 56.4%3-point %34.1% · 36.8%Ball care19.4% · 16.9%Off. rebounds35.1% · 37.6%Free throws0.24 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Bulgaria   ■ Portugal
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Bulgaria wins
1
Portugal wins
DateGameScore
10/11/22Portugal v Bulgaria88-78
12/08/17Bulgaria v Portugal91-65
02/08/17Portugal v Bulgaria71-82
Bulgarialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/23ARomania62-61
13/11/22ACyprus75-66
10/11/22APortugal78-88
07/09/22HBelgium80-89
06/09/22AGeorgia92-80
04/09/22HMontenegro81-91
03/09/22HTurkey87-101
01/09/22ASpain87-114
28/08/22HRomania84-72
25/08/22HCyprus88-55
Portugallast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/02/23ACyprus75-66
13/11/22HRomania92-62
10/11/22HBulgaria88-78
28/08/22HCyprus102-69
25/08/22ARomania75-59
04/07/22HMontenegro62-77
01/07/22AHungary68-69
27/02/22HFrance56-69
24/02/22AFrance56-94
29/11/21AMontenegro69-83

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bulgaria
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game77.486.071.7
Allowed / game68.463.571.7
Point differential+9.0+22.5+0.0
Avg total145.8149.5143.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Portugal
EuroBasket 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWWW100%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game86.494.075.0
Allowed / game66.869.762.5
Point differential+19.6+24.3+12.5
Avg total153.2163.7137.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%100%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Portugal550100%86.466.8+19.6
2 Poland54180%82.668.4+14.2
3 Croatia54180%79.868.0+11.8
4 Bulgaria54180%77.468.4+9.0
5 North Macedonia54180%71.466.8+4.6
6 Slovakia64267%73.272.7+0.5
7 Romania106460%72.671.1+1.5
8 Switzerland116555%69.669.5+0.1
9 Austria115645%75.075.7-0.7
10 Norway94544%72.272.8-0.6
11 Denmark104640%75.273.2+2.0
12 Ireland62433%75.784.7-9.0
13 Luxembourg41325%78.079.5-1.5
14 Albania41325%78.288.0-9.8
15 Kosovo41325%79.589.8-10.2
16 Cyprus121118%63.278.4-15.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Bulgaria1924272090
Portugal1921182482
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