California Baptist faces North Florida on 3 November 2026 in an NCAA matchup where the model names California Baptist the clear favourite, rating them 86% to win largely because of their dominant 4-1 run in the last five games and a projected 81-69 victory; the 14% chance for North Florida reflects their 1-4 stretch and recent struggles. California Baptist's last five contests include a 60-68 loss to Kansas away, a 63-61 win over Utah Valley State away, and a comfortable 86-72 home victory against Utah Tech, showing resilience and scoring depth. North Florida's five-game span features a 85-93 defeat to West Georgia away, a 61-85 loss to Jacksonville Dolphins at home, and a 76-70 win over Florida Gulf Coast at home, indicating inconsistency. The Pythia model projects a total of 149.7 points for the game, with a 3% probability of overtime. The home team's line is 81-69, and the model assigns an 86% chance that California Baptist will cover the spread.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
California Baptist winLost
85.9%fair 1.16
Best odds1.20
Implied84.0%
Edge+1.9pp
North Florida winWon
14.1%fair 7.09
Best odds6.00
Implied16.0%
Edge-1.9pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
California Baptist total 79Actual: California Baptist under 79
Over 79
58.4%
Under 79
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
California Baptist total 83 · main lineActual: California Baptist under 83
Over 83
41.7%
@ 1.85-8.5pp
Under 83
58.3%
@ 1.87+8.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
California Baptist total 87Actual: California Baptist under 87
Over 87
26.5%
Under 87
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 68Actual: North Florida over 68
Over 68
52.4%
Under 68
47.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
North Florida total 72 · main lineActual: North Florida under 72
Over 72
36.4%
@ 1.85-14.0pp
Under 72
63.6%
@ 1.88+14.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
North Florida total 76Actual: North Florida under 76
Over 76
22.7%
Under 76
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread California Baptist -14Actual: North Florida +14
CALI -14
43.4%
@ 2.50+5.9pp
NORT +14
56.6%
@ 1.50-5.9pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
2.50
NORT
Bet365
1.50
Spread California Baptist -11 · main lineActual: North Florida +11
CALI -11
54.6%
@ 1.93+5.4pp
NORT +11
45.4%
@ 1.87-5.4pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.92
Marathon Be
1.87
NORT
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Spread California Baptist -8Actual: North Florida +8
CALI -8
65.5%
@ 1.77+9.5pp
NORT +8
34.5%
@ 2.30-9.5pp
Best 5 market prices
CALI
Marathon Be
1.77
Bet365
1.55
NORT
Bet365
2.30
Marathon Be
1.95
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
California BaptistNorth Florida
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
North FloridaLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lipscomb
#121
L
49-64
49
64
-15
H31/01
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
W
47-36
47
36
+11
A06/02
NCAA
Queens Royals
#116
L
22-40
22
40
-18
A07/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A12/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A14/02
NCAA
Austin Peay
#49
L
33-48
33
48
-15
H20/02
NCAA
Stetson
#304
L
31-47
31
47
-16
A21/02
NCAA
Florida Gulf Coast
#224
W
49-34
49
34
+15
H27/02
NCAA
Jacksonville Dolphins
#289
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H28/02
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
W
50-45
50
45
+5
A05/03
NCAA
82.9Avg total
40.0Scored
42.9Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 81.5
Last 30 (30)
42.0
46.1
88.1
-4.1
27%
73%
Last 30 at home (14)
44.4
44.3
88.6
+0.1
36%
71%
Last 30 away (16)
40.0
47.7
87.7
-7.7
19%
75%
Last 10 (10)
40.0
42.9
82.9
-2.9
40%
50%
Last 5 (5)
40.8
42.0
82.8
-1.2
60%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)
40.6
46.8
87.4
-6.2
20%
72%
vs Similar (3)
43.0
49.0
92.0
-6.0
33%
67%
vs Weaker (2)
58.0
33.0
91.0
+25.0
100%
100%
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: North Florida win
CALI win
no forecast
@ 1.40
NORT win
no forecast
@ 3.00
2nd half Spread California Baptist -3.5 · main lineActual: North Florida +3.5
CALI -3.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
NORT +3.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half Over/Under 81.5 · main lineActual: Under 81.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.83
Under
no forecast
@ 1.91
California Baptist 2nd half total 43.5 · main lineActual: California Baptist under 43.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.78
North Florida 2nd half total 38.5 · main lineActual: North Florida under 38.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.82
Under
no forecast
@ 1.90
2nd half Spread California Baptist -4.5Actual: North Florida +4.5
CALI -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
NORT +4.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 83.5Actual: Under 83.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.93
Under
no forecast
@ 1.82
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: North Florida (regulation)
CALI
no forecast
@ 1.44
Draw
no forecast
@ 18.50
NORT
no forecast
@ 3.00
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 158
70.1%
1.76
Pinnacle
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.64
-
+20.9pp
Won
Under 159
72.2%
1.70
Pinnacle
1.79
SBO
1.78
Marathon Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.55
-
+20.4pp
Won
Under 158.5
70.8%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.62
+20.2pp
Won
Under 160
74.3%
1.63
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.69
Bet365
1.50
-
-
+20.0pp
Won
Under 159.5
72.8%
1.64
Pinnacle
1.76
SBO
1.74
Marathon Bet
1.63
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.52
+19.9pp
Won
North Florida under 74.5
71.9%
1.65
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.73
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
-
+18.1pp
Won
Under 164
81.5%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+16.6pp
Won
Under 164.5
81.8%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+15.9pp
Won
Under 165
83.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
-
+15.6pp
Won
North Florida under 79.5
85.4%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+14.3pp
Won
North Florida under 76.5
78.0%
1.45
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.36
-
-
+13.8pp
Won
Under 167.5
86.2%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+12.4pp
Won
North Florida under 75.5
75.0%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
North Florida under 78.5
83.2%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
1xBet
1.29
-
-
+12.2pp
Won
California Baptist under 87.5
74.4%
1.46
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.37
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 161
76.2%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.7pp
Won
California Baptist under 90.5
83.1%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
+11.5pp
Won
California Baptist under 89.5
80.4%
1.31
Bet365
1.35
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.25
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
Under 160.5
74.8%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
California Baptist under 91.5
85.5%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Under 163.5
80.2%
1.34
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Under 162
78.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
Under 161.5
76.7%
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+10.9pp
Won
Under 162.5
78.5%
1.36
Betano
1.36
Bet365
1.36
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
California Baptist under 88.5
77.5%
1.37
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.30
-
-
-
+10.5pp
Won
Under 163
79.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
North Florida under 77.5
80.7%
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
+10.2pp
Won
North Florida under 82.5
90.8%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
+10.0pp
Won
California Baptist -2
83.8%
1.26
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
-
+9.7pp
Lost
Under 172.5
91.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
+9.4pp
Won
North Florida under 80.5
87.4%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.17
-
-
-
+8.9pp
Won
California Baptist under 86.5
71.0%
1.47
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
North Florida under 83.5
92.2%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+8.4pp
Won
California Baptist -1
85.7%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Lost
North Florida under 81.5
89.2%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
California Baptist +1.5
87.3%
1.16
Bet365
1.16
-
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Lost
Under 165.5
83.4%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+7.2pp
Won
California Baptist -1.5
84.2%
1.19
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
California Baptist (regulation)
84.1%
1.17
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Lost
North Florida under 84.5
93.5%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
California Baptist -2.5
81.4%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Lost
California Baptist +11.5
97.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.9pp
Won
California Baptist +6.5
94.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+5.8pp
Lost
California Baptist -6
72.3%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.4pp
Lost
California Baptist -4
78.5%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+5.2pp
Lost
California Baptist -5.5
73.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.37
Betano
1.34
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
California Baptist -5
75.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+5.1pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.1%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+5.0pp
-
California Baptist -4.5
76.3%
1.29
Bet365
1.31
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Lost
California Baptist -3.5
79.2%
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
California Baptist -6.5
70.0%
1.42
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.40
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
California Baptist -3
81.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+4.8pp
Lost
Under 170.5
89.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Under 175.5
94.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
California Baptist +8.5
95.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Won
California Baptist +3.5
90.5%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+2.5pp
Lost
California Baptist over 65.5
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Lost
California Baptist over 63.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
California Baptist over 64.5
95.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
California Baptist win
85.9%
1.14
SBO
1.20
Marathon Bet
1.17
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
+1.9pp
Lost
California Baptist over 66.5
92.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+1.5pp
Lost
California Baptist over 67.5
91.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
California Baptist over 68.5
89.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+0.1pp
Lost
California Baptist over 69.5
87.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Lost
North Florida +21.5
79.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-1.1pp
Won
North Florida over 55.5
90.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.9pp
Won
California Baptist over 70.5
85.4%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Lost
North Florida +19.5
74.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
California Baptist over 71.5
83.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-2.5pp
Lost
North Florida +19
73.3%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
California Baptist over 73.5
77.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-3.0pp
Lost
California Baptist over 72.5
80.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Lost
North Florida +18.5
71.2%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-3.9pp
Won
Over 130.5
88.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
North Florida over 57.5
86.5%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
North Florida over 56.5
88.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-4.2pp
Won
North Florida +23.5
83.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-4.8pp
Won
North Florida +18
70.3%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
-5.0pp
Won
North Florida over 58.5
84.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Won
California Baptist over 74.5
74.4%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-6.5pp
Lost
North Florida over 59.5
81.7%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-7.0pp
Won
Over 132.5
85.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-7.4pp
Won
Over 135.5
80.8%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-8.2pp
Lost
North Florida over 61.5
76.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-9.5pp
Won
North Florida over 60.5
79.0%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-10.0pp
Won
California Baptist over 75.5
71.1%
1.14
Bet365
1.16
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-
-10.2pp
Lost
North Florida over 62.5
72.8%
1.11
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-11.3pp
Won
Over 140.5
71.2%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-11.9pp
Lost
Over 137.5
77.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.4pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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