On 14 November 2026 the NCAA matchup pits Charleston Southern against West Georgia, with the model designating Charleston Southern as the clear favourite thanks to its 93% win probability and a projected 84-67 score that reflects a strong offensive output of 73.7 points per game versus West Georgia's 60.3, while Charleston Southern's defence has allowed only 76.3 per game. Charleston Southern's overall 1-2 record sits at league position 277, but its sole home win, 86-49 over Columbia International, shows a high-scoring 86.0 points and a tight 49.0 allowed, and the team has won 2 of its last 5 games. West Georgia, meanwhile, is 0-3 with 74.7 points allowed per game and has lost all 2 road outings, scoring only 55.5 on the road, and has been defeated in 4 of its last 5 games, including a 70-73 loss to UNC Asheville. The Pythia model gives Charleston Southern a 93% chance to win, a 87% probability that the home team covers the -5.0 line, and a 56% chance of the total exceeding 149.0, with a 2% overtime probability, and the projected total points are 151.6.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Charleston Southern winWon
93.1%fair 1.07
Best odds1.52
Implied65.3%
Edge+27.8pp
West Georgia winLost
6.9%fair 14.50
Best odds2.80
Implied34.7%
Edge-27.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 07:07 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Charleston Southern -10
74.7%
3.15
Bet365
3.15
-
-
-
-
+45.1pp
Won
Charleston Southern -9
77.5%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+45.0pp
Won
Charleston Southern -8
80.2%
2.62
Bet365
2.62
-
-
-
-
+44.7pp
Won
Charleston Southern -11
71.6%
3.40
Bet365
3.40
-
-
-
-
+44.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern -8.5
78.1%
2.54
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.37
-
-
-
+41.6pp
Won
Charleston Southern -10.5
72.5%
3.00
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.80
-
-
-
+41.5pp
Won
Charleston Southern -9.5
75.4%
2.73
Bet365
2.90
Betano
2.57
-
-
-
+41.5pp
Won
Charleston Southern -7
82.6%
2.36
Bet365
2.40
Pinnacle
2.32
-
-
-
+41.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern -7.5
80.7%
2.34
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.18
-
-
-
+40.7pp
Won
Charleston Southern -6.5
83.0%
2.21
Bet365
2.30
Pinnacle
2.22
Betano
2.10
-
-
+40.0pp
Won
Charleston Southern -6
84.9%
2.17
Bet365
2.22
Pinnacle
2.12
-
-
-
+39.7pp
Won
Charleston Southern -5.5
85.2%
1.99
Bet365
2.12
Pinnacle
2.02
Betano
1.95
BetVictor
1.88
-
+37.7pp
Won
Charleston Southern -5
87.0%
1.94
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.85
-
-
+37.0pp
Won
Charleston Southern -4.5
87.2%
1.82
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.81
BetVictor
1.75
+34.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern -1
93.0%
1.58
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
-
+34.3pp
Won
Charleston Southern -4
88.9%
1.84
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
-
+34.2pp
Won
Charleston Southern -1.5
92.1%
1.58
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.50
-
-
+33.5pp
Won
Charleston Southern -3.5
89.1%
1.77
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
BetVictor
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Marathon Bet
1.69
+32.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern (regulation)
92.0%
1.53
1xBet
1.61
Betano
1.50
Marathon Bet
1.49
-
-
+32.2pp
Won
Charleston Southern -3
90.3%
1.76
SBO
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.64
+31.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern -2.5
90.5%
1.67
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.71
Marathon Bet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.57
+31.6pp
Won
Charleston Southern -2
92.0%
1.61
Bet365
1.66
Pinnacle
1.57
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern +1
93.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+31.3pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 76
81.1%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
+31.1pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 75.5
81.6%
1.77
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.70
-
+29.2pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 76.5
78.8%
1.84
Pinnacle
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.82
WilliamHill
1.80
-
+29.2pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 77.5
75.8%
1.93
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.86
WilliamHill
1.85
-
+29.0pp
Won
Charleston Southern +2
94.8%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 77
78.2%
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
+28.2pp
Won
Charleston Southern +1.5
93.9%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.38
-
-
-
+27.8pp
Won
Charleston Southern win
93.1%
1.46
SBO
1.52
Marathon Bet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.45
+27.8pp
Won
Charleston Southern +2.5
94.9%
1.36
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+26.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern +3
95.5%
1.35
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
-
+25.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 74.5
84.2%
1.55
Betano
1.55
-
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 78.5
72.5%
2.14
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.01
-
-
+25.6pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 73.5
86.5%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+24.8pp
Won
Charleston Southern +3.5
95.5%
1.31
Bet365
1.34
Betano
1.28
-
-
-
+24.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern +4
96.2%
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 72.5
88.5%
1.42
Bet365
1.45
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
+23.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern +4.5
96.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.29
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+23.7pp
Won
Charleston Southern +5.5
96.8%
1.24
Betano
1.24
-
-
-
-
+22.7pp
Won
West Georgia under 73
73.0%
1.83
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Bet
1.82
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Won
West Georgia under 74.5
77.0%
1.62
Pinnacle
1.73
Betano
1.52
-
-
-
+22.5pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 70.5
91.9%
1.31
Betano
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 71.5
90.4%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+21.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern +6.5
97.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+19.5pp
Won
West Georgia under 73.5
73.9%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.80
Pinnacle
1.72
Betano
1.62
-
+19.3pp
Won
West Georgia under 72.5
70.6%
1.84
1xBet
1.86
Marathon Bet
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
+18.9pp
Won
Charleston Southern over 68.5
94.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+18.3pp
Won
West Georgia under 78.5
87.0%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+17.9pp
Won
West Georgia under 75.5
79.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.44
-
-
-
+17.1pp
Won
West Georgia under 77.5
84.8%
1.35
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
+16.5pp
Won
West Georgia under 76.5
82.5%
1.37
Betano
1.37
-
-
-
-
+16.4pp
Won
West Georgia under 79.5
88.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+13.6pp
Won
Charleston Southern +11.5
98.9%
1.09
Bet365
1.09
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Charleston Southern +16.5
99.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+9.9pp
Won
Overtime: no
98.4%
1.04
WilliamHill
1.05
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.8pp
Won
Charleston Southern +21.5
99.8%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+7.0pp
Won
Over 142
72.6%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+5.6pp
Won
Over 142.5
71.1%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 143
70.4%
1.43
Bet365
1.43
-
-
-
-
+5.5pp
Won
Over 141.5
73.2%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Won
Over 141
74.7%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+4.7pp
Won
Over 140.5
75.2%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+4.2pp
Won
Over 138.5
78.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Over 123.5
95.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Won
Over 128.5
92.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.7pp
Won
Over 133.5
86.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+1.7pp
Won
Under 173.5
91.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.3pp
Won
Under 168.5
85.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-3.7pp
Won
West Georgia over 55.5
87.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.1pp
Won
Under 163.5
77.1%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
West Georgia over 57.5
83.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-7.6pp
Won
Charleston Southern under 94.5
84.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.1pp
Won
West Georgia over 59.5
77.6%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-11.4pp
Won
Charleston Southern under 92.5
79.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.7pp
Won
West Georgia over 61.5
71.1%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-15.5pp
Won
Charleston Southern under 90.5
73.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-16.4pp
Lost
West Georgia +23.5
71.3%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-19.0pp
Lost
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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