Davidson hosts Mercer on 7 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Davidson the clear favourite, rating them 88% to win largely because of their undefeated 1-0 season record, 76.0 points scored per game and 61.0 points allowed per game, placing them 125th in the league; Mercer sits at 1-1, 78.5 points per game and 74.5 allowed, 228th. Davidson's single game win came 76-61 against Washington State, while their last five games show three wins and two losses, and a recent 64-59 home victory over Loyola Chicago; Mercer's road record is 0-1 with 67.0 points scored and 96.0 allowed, and their last five include two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 90-53 home win over Reinhardt. The teams have met once before, with the last meeting noted as a 58-70 loss for Davidson to Saint Josephs Hawks. Pythia projects a 80-66 score, 146.3 total points, and gives Davidson a 57% chance to cover the -11.5 spread, while the over on 149.5 has a 42% probability; the game has a 3% overtime chance. The final game-day fact: Davidson's recent 76-61 win was away.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Davidson winWon
87.9%fair 1.14
Best odds1.15
Implied84.7%
Edge+3.2pp
Mercer winLost
12.1%fair 8.29
Best odds6.50
Implied15.3%
Edge-3.2pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 07:38 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Davidson) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 144.5Actual: Over 144.5
Over 144.5
54.1%
@ 1.52-7.3pp
Under 144.5
45.9%
@ 2.40+7.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.40
Over/Under 149.5 · main lineActual: Over 149.5
Over 149.5
41.9%
@ 2.00-7.5pp
Under 149.5
58.1%
@ 1.88+7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 154.5Actual: Over 154.5
Over 154.5
30.4%
@ 2.75-5.1pp
Under 154.5
69.6%
@ 1.47+5.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.40
📊 3. Team Totals
Davidson total 76Actual: Davidson over 76
Over 76
65.8%
Under 76
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Davidson total 80 · main lineActual: Davidson over 80
Over 80
49.4%
@ 1.82-1.4pp
Under 80
50.6%
@ 1.88+1.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
Marathon Be
1.88
Davidson total 84Actual: Davidson over 84
Over 84
33.2%
Under 84
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercer total 65Actual: Mercer over 65
Over 65
55.4%
Under 65
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mercer total 69 · main lineActual: Mercer over 69
Over 69
39.1%
@ 1.88-10.5pp
Under 69
60.9%
@ 1.85+10.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
Mercer total 73Actual: Mercer over 73
Over 73
24.8%
Under 73
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Davidson -14.5Actual: Mercer +14.5
DAVI -14.5
45.9%
@ 2.40+6.7pp
MERC +14.5
54.1%
@ 1.53-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DAVI
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.32
MERC
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
Spread Davidson -11.5 · main lineActual: Davidson -11.5
DAVI -11.5
56.7%
@ 1.93+6.7pp
MERC +11.5
43.3%
@ 1.93-6.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DAVI
Bet365
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.90
Marathon Be
1.87
SBO
1.87
MERC
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.88
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.86
Spread Davidson -8.5Actual: Davidson -8.5
DAVI -8.5
67.0%
@ 1.55+7.5pp
MERC +8.5
33.0%
@ 2.30-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
DAVI
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
MERC
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
DavidsonMercer
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Mercer under 72.5
72.9%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+9.1pp
Lost
Davidson (regulation)
86.3%
1.15
Marathon Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
-
-
-
+8.2pp
Won
Mercer under 74.5
78.9%
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
-
-
-
+7.7pp
Lost
Mercer under 73.5
76.0%
1.33
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
+7.3pp
Lost
Davidson -7
72.6%
1.41
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
-
+6.9pp
Won
Davidson -7.5
70.3%
1.46
Bet365
1.47
Betano
1.45
-
-
-
+6.8pp
Won
Davidson -6.5
73.4%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Davidson -5.5
76.4%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
+6.5pp
Won
Davidson -4.5
79.2%
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
+6.4pp
Won
Davidson -5
78.6%
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-
-
-
-
+6.3pp
Won
Davidson -6
75.7%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+6.2pp
Won
Davidson -4
81.4%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+6.1pp
Won
Mercer under 77.5
86.1%
1.15
1xBet
1.17
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Davidson -3.5
81.9%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.7pp
Won
Mercer under 75.5
81.5%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
+5.3pp
Lost
Overtime: no
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
-
-
-
+5.3pp
-
Davidson -1.5
86.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
-
-
-
-
+5.0pp
Won
Davidson +8.5
96.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.9pp
Won
Under 155.5
71.7%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Under 156.5
73.7%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+4.6pp
Lost
Davidson under 96.5
95.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Davidson under 98.5
96.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Won
Under 155
71.1%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+4.1pp
Lost
Davidson under 99.5
97.5%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Davidson +3.5
92.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Won
Davidson under 94.5
93.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+3.6pp
Won
Under 173.5
95.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.5pp
Won
Davidson win
87.9%
1.13
Marathon Bet
1.15
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.12
WilliamHill
1.11
+3.2pp
Won
Under 156
73.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+3.2pp
Lost
Davidson under 85.5
71.6%
1.32
Betano
1.32
-
-
-
-
+3.1pp
Lost
Davidson under 92.5
89.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+2.4pp
Won
Under 168.5
91.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+2.3pp
Won
Under 158.5
77.5%
1.23
Bet365
1.23
-
-
-
-
+2.2pp
Lost
Davidson under 86.5
74.9%
1.27
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Lost
Davidson under 89.5
83.5%
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Davidson under 90.5
85.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+2.1pp
Won
Davidson under 88.5
80.9%
1.18
Bet365
1.18
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Won
Under 163.5
85.5%
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
-
+1.1pp
Lost
Mercer over 51.5
93.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.7pp
Won
Over 123.5
92.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-0.8pp
Won
Mercer over 53.5
89.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-1.2pp
Won
Mercer over 52.5
91.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-2.1pp
Won
Davidson over 74.5
70.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.32
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
-2.3pp
Won
Mercer over 54.5
88.1%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-3.1pp
Won
Over 128.5
86.3%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Mercer over 55.5
86.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-3.4pp
Won
Mercer +21.5
76.5%
1.15
Bet365
1.15
-
-
-
-
-4.1pp
Won
Mercer +19.5
70.8%
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
-
-
-
-5.4pp
Won
Mercer over 56.5
83.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-5.7pp
Won
Mercer over 57.5
81.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-6.1pp
Won
Mercer over 59.5
75.2%
1.13
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Over 133.5
78.3%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-6.7pp
Won
Mercer over 58.5
78.2%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
-7.3pp
Won
Mercer over 60.5
71.9%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
-11.2pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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