The LNB Elite clash on 15 November 2026 pits Dijon, the 2nd-place team with a 6-1 record and 93.1 points per game, against Nanterre, who sit 5th with a 5-2 record and 86.7 points per game, and the model names Dijon the favourite with a 63% chance to win; the projected score is 90-86 and the projected total 175.9, comfortably above the 172.5 line with a 57% over probability. Dijon's home form is solid, 2-1 at home with 94.3 points scored and 92.0 allowed, and they have won four of their last five, including a 97-71 victory over Cholet and a 91-81 win over Saint Quentin, though they suffered a 94-108 loss to Nancy. Nanterre's road record is 1-2, 83.0 points scored and 90.3 allowed, and they have won three of their last five, highlighted by a 101-98 win over JL Bourg and a 93-81 win at home against Chalon/Saone, but they were beaten 82-102 by Rytas. Historically, Dijon leads the 10-game head-to-head series 6-4, though Nanterre last defeated Dijon 87-69 on 2 May 2026. The spread of -3.0 gives Dijon a 55% chance to cover, and the game carries a 5% overtime probability.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dijon win
62.7%fair 1.59
Best odds1.76
Implied54.4%
Edge+8.3pp
Nanterre win
37.3%fair 2.68
Best odds2.15
Implied45.6%
Edge-8.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Dijon) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 176 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 170-174 (12%). The market's main line is 174.5.
Over/Under 169.5
Over 169.5
64.4%
@ 1.64+5.3pp
Under 169.5
35.6%
@ 2.30-5.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.64
WilliamHill
1.57
1xBet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Marathon Be
1.55
Under
WilliamHill
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.21
Marathon Be
2.21
Over/Under 174.5 · main line
Over 174.5
52.6%
@ 2.05+3.0pp
Under 174.5
47.4%
@ 1.90-3.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Marathon Be
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.84
Marathon Be
1.84
SBO
1.82
Betano
1.80
Over/Under 179.5
Over 179.5
40.7%
@ 2.65+4.5pp
Under 179.5
59.3%
@ 1.48-4.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.47
Under
Marathon Be
1.48
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
📊 3. Team Totals
Dijon total 83.5
Over 83.5
72.4%
@ 1.40+7.8pp
Under 83.5
27.6%
@ 2.55-7.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.55
Dijon total 87.5 · main line
Over 87.5
58.9%
@ 1.85+8.3pp
Under 87.5
41.1%
@ 1.90-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
Bet365
1.83
BetVictor
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathon Be
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.90
Marathon Be
1.90
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Dijon total 91.5
Over 91.5
44.3%
@ 2.45+7.2pp
Under 91.5
55.7%
@ 1.44-7.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.45
Under
Betano
1.44
Nanterre total 81.5
Over 81.5
66.3%
@ 1.52+2.7pp
Under 81.5
33.7%
@ 2.67-2.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.52
Betano
1.37
Under
Betano
2.67
Bet365
2.40
Nanterre total 85.5 · main line
Over 85.5
51.3%
@ 1.79-0.7pp
Under 85.5
48.7%
@ 2.00+0.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.79
Marathon Be
1.79
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
WilliamHill
1.73
Under
WilliamHill
2.00
1xBet
1.94
Marathon Be
1.94
Betano
1.93
BetVictor
1.75
Nanterre total 89.5
Over 89.5
36.3%
@ 2.65-0.5pp
Under 89.5
63.7%
@ 1.47+0.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.35
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.43
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Dijon's side (positive = Dijon win). Pythia's expected margin is +3.9; Dijon win by 1+ in 56% of simulations.
Spread Dijon -5
DIJ -5
47.6%
@ 2.32+7.7pp
NAN +5
52.4%
@ 1.64-7.7pp
Best 5 market prices
DIJ
Marathon Be
2.32
1xBet
2.32
Bet365
2.17
NAN
Bet365
1.64
Marathon Be
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Spread Dijon -2 · main line
DIJ -2
58.5%
@ 1.90+8.1pp
NAN +2
41.5%
@ 1.95-8.1pp
Best 5 market prices
DIJ
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.83
Bet365
1.76
NAN
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Be
1.89
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.87
Spread Dijon +1
DIJ +1
64.3%
@ 1.70+8.3pp
NAN -1
35.7%
@ 2.35-8.3pp
Best 5 market prices
DIJ
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathon Be
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Bet365
1.54
NAN
Bet365
2.35
Marathon Be
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.16
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
DijonNanterre
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Dijon) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
DIJ win
58.0%
@ 1.80+5.6pp
NAN win
42.0%
@ 1.98-5.6pp
2nd half Spread Dijon 0 · main line
DIJ 0
58.0%
@ 1.81+6.3pp
NAN 0
42.0%
@ 1.93-6.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 85.5 · main line
Over
57.1%
@ 1.90+6.8pp
Under
42.9%
@ 1.89-6.8pp
Dijon 2nd half total 43 · main line
Over
59.3%
@ 1.84+8.5pp
Under
40.7%
@ 1.90-8.5pp
Nanterre 2nd half total 42.5 · main line
Over
52.3%
@ 1.88+2.3pp
Under
47.7%
@ 1.87-2.3pp
2nd half Over/Under 84
Over
62.8%
@ 1.84+12.0pp
Under
37.2%
@ 1.90-12.0pp
2nd half Spread Dijon -1
DIJ -1
53.7%
@ 1.96+5.9pp
NAN +1
46.3%
@ 1.79-5.9pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
DIJ
55.6%
@ 1.87+6.4pp
Draw
4.0%
@ 21.00-1.4pp
NAN
40.4%
@ 2.02-5.1pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dijontheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Dijon: 83.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
36.4
20.1
55.2%
55.6%
40.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
26.0
8.6
33.1%
34.3%
25.8
🏀Free throws
25.1
17.6
70.1%
74.2%
17.6
Their opponents take 62.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Nanterretheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Nanterre: 81.1 points a game allowed
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
34.6
17.6
50.9%
55.6%
35.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.3
8.6
34.0%
34.3%
25.8
🏀Free throws
26.9
20.1
74.7%
74.2%
20.1
Their opponents take 59.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 64.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dijontheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Dijon: 90.6 points a game allowed
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀25%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.4 pts a game · 25% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
34.0
19.2
56.4%
55.6%
38.4
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
27.6
9.9
36.0%
34.3%
29.8
🏀Free throws
29.5
22.4
75.8%
74.2%
22.4
Their opponents take 61.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Nanterretheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Nanterre: 79.2 points a game allowed
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.4 points a game
47%
33%
20%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
35.5
18.4
51.8%
55.6%
36.8
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.1
8.3
33.0%
34.3%
24.8
🏀Free throws
24.5
17.6
72.0%
74.2%
17.6
Their opponents take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Dijon
WLWWWWWWWL
Nanterre
LWWLWLWWLL
#2
League position
#5
+13.9
Net rating
+3.4
112.0
Offensive rating
96.2
98.2
Defensive rating
92.8
60.0%
Effective FG%
51.3%
52.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
12.2%
Turnover %
14.9%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.33
41.4%
3-point %
31.5%
64.4%
Assist %
67.7%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%
Profile
■ Dijon■ Nanterre
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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