East Carolina faces USC Upstate on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Pirates at 57% to win over the Buccaneers' 43%. East Carolina has gone 2-3 in its last five outings, dropping 83-90 to UAB away on 8 March, falling 66-93 to Tulsa at home on 5 March, and then beating Memphis 84-68 at home on 1 March, while USC Upstate also sits 2-3 after a 64-65 loss to Gardner-Webb at home on 4 March, a 71-61 win over the same team on 28 February, and a 59-71 defeat to Radford away on 26 February. Their only prior meeting ended with USC Upstate triumphing 83-81 on 15 November 2023. The Pythia model projects a close 74-72 score, with a combined 145.6 points and a 16% chance that East Carolina covers the home line of -13.5; the over on the 151.5 total has a 35% probability, and a 5% chance of overtime. The game is expected to be a tight contest, with East Carolina's recent 84-68 win over Memphis hinting at the offensive firepower that could tip the balance.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
East Carolina winWon
56.8%fair 1.76
Best odds1.12
Implied86.0%
Edge-29.3pp
USC Upstate winLost
43.2%fair 2.31
Best odds7.50
Implied14.0%
Edge+29.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
East Carolina total 77.5Actual: East Carolina over 77.5
Over 77.5
35.6%
@ 1.34-32.1pp
Under 77.5
64.4%
@ 2.80+32.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.80
East Carolina total 81.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina over 81.5
Over 81.5
22.4%
@ 1.85-28.3pp
Under 81.5
77.6%
@ 2.02+28.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
East Carolina total 85.5Actual: East Carolina under 85.5
Over 85.5
12.6%
@ 2.27-27.2pp
Under 85.5
87.4%
@ 1.50+27.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.50
USC Upstate total 65Actual: USC Upstate over 65
Over 65
75.2%
Under 65
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
USC Upstate total 69 · main lineActual: USC Upstate over 69
Over 69
60.9%
@ 1.88+11.3pp
Under 69
39.1%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
USC Upstate total 73Actual: USC Upstate under 73
Over 73
44.9%
Under 73
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread East Carolina -16.5Actual: USC Upstate +16.5
EAST -16.5
10.4%
@ 2.40-30.1pp
USC +16.5
89.6%
@ 1.60+30.1pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
USC
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
Spread East Carolina -13.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate +13.5
EAST -13.5
15.7%
@ 1.90-35.3pp
USC +13.5
84.3%
@ 1.93+35.3pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
USC
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Spread East Carolina -10.5Actual: East Carolina -10.5
EAST -10.5
22.7%
@ 1.72-36.8pp
USC +10.5
77.3%
@ 2.30+36.8pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
USC
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.00
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
East CarolinaUSC Upstate
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
ECEast CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A01/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
L
28-35
28
35
-7
H07/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H12/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H19/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A21/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H01/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
28-53
28
53
-25
H06/03
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A08/03
NCAA
73.4Avg total
35.8Scored
37.6Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71.5
Last 30 (30)
32.2
37.6
69.7
-5.4
37%
57%
Last 30 at home (18)
32.7
36.5
69.2
-3.8
39%
44%
Last 30 away (12)
31.4
39.2
70.6
-7.7
33%
75%
Last 10 (10)
35.8
37.6
73.4
-1.8
50%
70%
Last 5 (5)
35.0
40.6
75.6
-5.6
40%
80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)
31.1
38.2
69.3
-7.1
28%
56%
vs Similar (2)
35.5
31.5
67.0
+4.0
100%
50%
vs Weaker (3)
38.7
36.3
75.0
+2.3
67%
67%
UUUSC UpstateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Longwood
#202
D
21-21
21
21
+0
H30/01
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A04/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H07/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H13/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A19/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H05/03
NCAA
64.4Avg total
32.4Scored
32.0Allowed
1st half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 71.5
Last 30 (30)
33.6
33.0
66.6
+0.7
40%
30%
Last 30 at home (16)
36.2
32.1
68.4
+4.1
50%
44%
Last 30 away (14)
30.6
33.9
64.6
-3.3
29%
14%
Last 10 (10)
32.4
32.0
64.4
+0.4
50%
30%
Last 5 (5)
33.0
29.2
62.2
+3.8
80%
20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)
28.0
37.6
65.6
-9.6
0%
12%
vs Similar (14)
32.9
33.9
66.7
-1.0
29%
36%
vs Weaker (8)
40.6
26.8
67.4
+13.9
100%
38%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: East Carolina win
EAST win
no forecast
@ 1.20
USC win
no forecast
@ 4.55
1st half Spread East Carolina -7.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina -7.5
EAST -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
USC +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
East Carolina 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
USC Upstate 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread East Carolina -8.5Actual: East Carolina -8.5
EAST -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
USC +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread East Carolina -6.5Actual: East Carolina -6.5
EAST -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
USC +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread East Carolina -9.5Actual: East Carolina -9.5
EAST -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
USC +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread East Carolina -5.5Actual: East Carolina -5.5
EAST -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
USC +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Spread East Carolina -10.5Actual: East Carolina -10.5
EAST -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
USC +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread East Carolina -4.5Actual: East Carolina -4.5
EAST -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
USC +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Spread East Carolina -11.5Actual: East Carolina -11.5
EAST -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
USC +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: East Carolina (regulation)
EAST
no forecast
@ 1.23
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
USC
no forecast
@ 4.96
ECEast CarolinaLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Atlantic
#164
L
38-39
38
39
-1
A01/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H07/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
42-41
42
41
+1
H12/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A14/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H19/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
31-32
31
32
-1
A21/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H01/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H06/03
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A08/03
NCAA
80.0Avg total
40.4Scored
39.6Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 79.5
Last 30 (30)
37.8
38.5
76.3
-0.7
47%
33%
Last 30 at home (18)
38.1
37.3
75.3
+0.8
56%
28%
Last 30 away (12)
37.4
40.2
77.7
-2.8
33%
42%
Last 10 (10)
40.4
39.6
80.0
+0.8
50%
50%
Last 5 (5)
39.2
39.4
78.6
-0.2
40%
40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)
37.7
38.7
76.4
-1.0
44%
32%
vs Similar (2)
33.5
36.0
69.5
-2.5
50%
0%
vs Weaker (3)
41.7
38.0
79.7
+3.7
67%
67%
UUUSC UpstateLast 10 – 2nd half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Longwood
#202
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H30/01
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A04/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
W
52-51
52
51
+1
H07/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
35-45
35
45
-10
H13/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A14/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A19/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
L
29-40
29
40
-11
H21/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A27/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H28/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
L
34-36
34
36
-2
H05/03
NCAA
78.2Avg total
37.2Scored
41.0Allowed
2nd half
Scored
Allowed
Total
Margin
Won the half
Over 79.5
Last 30 (30)
39.2
39.2
78.4
-0.0
40%
33%
Last 30 at home (16)
41.9
38.2
80.1
+3.8
50%
50%
Last 30 away (14)
36.1
40.4
76.5
-4.4
29%
14%
Last 10 (10)
37.2
41.0
78.2
-3.8
40%
30%
Last 5 (5)
33.8
38.6
72.4
-4.8
20%
0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)
34.9
40.1
75.0
-5.2
12%
25%
vs Similar (14)
38.9
41.1
80.1
-2.2
43%
36%
vs Weaker (8)
44.0
35.0
79.0
+9.0
62%
38%
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winnerActual: East Carolina win
EAST win
no forecast
@ 1.29
USC win
no forecast
@ 3.65
2nd half Spread East Carolina -5.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate +5.5
EAST -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.90
USC +5.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
2nd half Over/Under 79.5 · main lineActual: Under 79.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: East Carolina (regulation)
EAST
no forecast
@ 1.32
Draw
no forecast
@ 20.00
USC
no forecast
@ 3.65
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
USC Upstate +9
73.8%
2.65
Bet365
2.65
-
-
-
-
+38.7pp
Lost
USC Upstate +8
70.7%
2.85
Bet365
2.85
-
-
-
-
+38.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate +10
76.7%
2.40
Bet365
2.40
-
-
-
-
+37.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate +11
79.4%
2.20
Bet365
2.20
-
-
-
-
+37.3pp
Lost
USC Upstate +8.5
71.6%
2.69
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.65
-
-
-
+37.2pp
Lost
USC Upstate +9.5
74.6%
2.48
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
-
-
-
+37.1pp
Lost
USC Upstate +10.5
77.3%
2.19
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.00
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
USC Upstate +12
81.8%
2.05
Bet365
2.05
-
-
-
-
+36.8pp
Lost
USC Upstate +11.5
79.9%
2.11
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
2.07
-
-
+36.3pp
Lost
USC Upstate +13
84.0%
1.91
Marathon Bet
1.96
Bet365
1.86
-
-
-
+35.4pp
Push
USC Upstate +13.5
84.3%
1.87
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
+35.3pp
Won
USC Upstate +14
86.0%
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.74
-
-
-
+34.5pp
Won
USC Upstate +12.5
82.2%
1.95
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.92
BetVictor
1.80
+34.4pp
Lost
USC Upstate +14.5
86.3%
1.77
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.71
-
+33.4pp
Won
East Carolina under 79.5
71.4%
2.35
Betano
2.35
-
-
-
-
+32.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate +15.5
88.0%
1.65
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+32.7pp
Won
East Carolina under 80.5
74.6%
2.15
Betano
2.15
-
-
-
-
+32.4pp
Lost
East Carolina under 83
82.5%
1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83
-
-
-
-
+32.0pp
Push
USC Upstate +15
87.8%
1.64
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
-
+31.4pp
Won
East Carolina under 82.5
80.4%
1.87
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
+30.6pp
Lost
USC Upstate +16.5
89.6%
1.56
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+30.1pp
Won
East Carolina under 83.5
83.0%
1.75
Betano
1.75
-
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Won
East Carolina under 82
79.9%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+29.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate +16
89.4%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+29.7pp
Won
East Carolina under 84.5
85.3%
1.60
Betano
1.60
-
-
-
-
+28.6pp
Won
USC Upstate +17.5
90.9%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
+28.3pp
Won
East Carolina under 81.5
77.6%
1.91
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
+28.3pp
Lost
USC Upstate +17
90.8%
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
-
+27.4pp
Won
East Carolina under 85.5
87.4%
1.50
Betano
1.50
-
-
-
-
+27.2pp
Won
East Carolina under 81
76.9%
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
-
-
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
USC Upstate +18.5
92.2%
1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+26.7pp
Won
USC Upstate +18
92.1%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+25.8pp
Won
East Carolina under 86.5
89.3%
1.42
Betano
1.42
-
-
-
-
+25.5pp
Won
USC Upstate +19.5
93.3%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
+24.9pp
Won
East Carolina under 87.5
91.0%
1.35
Betano
1.35
-
-
-
-
+24.2pp
Won
USC Upstate +19
93.2%
1.33
Bet365
1.33
-
-
-
-
+23.2pp
Won
USC Upstate +20.5
94.2%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.26
-
-
-
+22.9pp
Won
USC Upstate +20
94.2%
1.27
Bet365
1.27
-
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Won
Under 154
70.5%
1.64
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
-
-
-
+13.4pp
Won
Under 154.5
71.1%
1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58
-
-
-
+13.0pp
Won
Under 155
72.5%
1.55
Bet365
1.55
-
-
-
-
+12.8pp
Won
Under 155.5
73.1%
1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52
-
-
-
+12.3pp
Won
USC Upstate over 62.5
81.6%
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Under 156
74.5%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+12.0pp
Won
Under 156.5
75.0%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 157
76.4%
1.44
Bet365
1.44
-
-
-
-
+11.9pp
Won
Under 157.5
76.8%
1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
+11.4pp
Won
USC Upstate over 65.5
72.8%
1.47
Betano
1.47
-
-
-
-
+11.3pp
Won
Under 158
78.2%
1.38
Bet365
1.38
-
-
-
-
+11.2pp
Won
USC Upstate over 64.5
76.0%
1.39
Betano
1.39
-
-
-
-
+11.1pp
Won
USC Upstate over 63.5
78.9%
1.33
Betano
1.33
-
-
-
-
+10.7pp
Won
Under 158.5
78.6%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35
-
-
-
+10.6pp
Won
Under 159
79.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+10.4pp
Won
Under 159.5
80.3%
1.31
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
-
+9.3pp
Won
Overtime: no
94.6%
1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6pp
-
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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