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East Carolina vs USC Upstate Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 83-70
44-32 39-38
Position#159
Record-
FormLWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
East Carolina 🏆
USA
Vs
57%
43%
■ EAST 57%■ USC 43%
Pythia win probability
Projected 74-72
Projected total 145.6
USC Upstate
USA
Position#286
Record-
FormLWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · East Carolina v USC Upstate
02 Nov 2026
EAST83
USC 70
15 Nov 2023
EAST81
USC 83
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

East Carolina faces USC Upstate on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the Pirates at 57% to win over the Buccaneers' 43%. East Carolina has gone 2-3 in its last five outings, dropping 83-90 to UAB away on 8 March, falling 66-93 to Tulsa at home on 5 March, and then beating Memphis 84-68 at home on 1 March, while USC Upstate also sits 2-3 after a 64-65 loss to Gardner-Webb at home on 4 March, a 71-61 win over the same team on 28 February, and a 59-71 defeat to Radford away on 26 February. Their only prior meeting ended with USC Upstate triumphing 83-81 on 15 November 2023. The Pythia model projects a close 74-72 score, with a combined 145.6 points and a 16% chance that East Carolina covers the home line of -13.5; the over on the 151.5 total has a 35% probability, and a 5% chance of overtime. The game is expected to be a tight contest, with East Carolina's recent 84-68 win over Memphis hinting at the offensive firepower that could tip the balance.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

East Carolina winWon
56.8%fair 1.76
Best odds1.12
Implied86.0%
Edge-29.3pp
USC Upstate winLost
43.2%fair 2.31
Best odds7.50
Implied14.0%
Edge+29.3pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

East CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
76-75
76
75
+1
A01/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
L
73-81
73
81
-8
H07/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
88-72
88
72
+16
H12/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
85-75
85
75
+10
A14/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
89-92 OT
89
92
-3
H19/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
56-68
56
68
-12
A21/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
82-81
82
81
+1
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
84-68
84
68
+16
H01/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
66-93
66
93
-27
H06/03
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
83-90
83
90
-7
A08/03
NCAA
1H
2H
38-36
38-39
28-35
45-46
46-31
42-41
38-34
47-41
33-37
36-32
25-36
31-32
34-43
48-38
44-30
40-38
28-53
38-40
44-41
39-49
157.7Avg total
78.2Scored
79.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.279.5157.7-1.350%
Last 5 (5)74.280.0154.2-5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)69.878.2148.0-8.324%
vs Similar (2)69.067.5136.5+1.550%
vs Weaker (3)80.374.3154.7+6.0100%
USC UpstateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Longwood
#202
W
65-60
65
60
+5
H30/01
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
L
67-76
67
76
-9
A04/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
W
100-94 OT
100
94
+6
H07/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
70-95
70
95
-25
H13/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
75-82 OT
75
82
-7
A14/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
64-68
64
68
-4
A19/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
76-74
76
74
+2
H21/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
L
59-71
59
71
-12
A27/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
71-61
71
61
+10
H28/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
L
64-65
64
65
-1
H05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
21-21
44-39
36-32
31-44
39-40
52-51
35-50
35-45
28-31
41-38
27-30
37-38
47-34
29-40
30-29
29-42
31-24
40-37
30-29
34-36
145.7Avg total
71.1Scored
74.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)71.174.6145.7-3.540%
Last 5 (5)66.867.8134.6-1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)62.977.8140.6-14.90%
vs Similar (14)75.377.7153.0-2.443%
vs Weaker (8)84.661.8146.4+22.975%
Over/Under 146.5Actual: Over 146.5
Over 146.5
47.0%
@ 1.50-15.9pp
Under 146.5
53.0%
@ 2.60+15.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Under
Bet365
2.60
Betano
2.40
Over/Under 151.5 · main lineActual: Over 151.5
Over 151.5
35.3%
@ 1.91-14.7pp
Under 151.5
64.7%
@ 1.90+14.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
WilliamHill
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.87
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Be
1.88
SBO
1.87
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 156.5Actual: Under 156.5
Over 156.5
25.0%
@ 2.55-11.9pp
Under 156.5
75.0%
@ 1.47+11.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.55
Betano
2.47
Under
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47

📊 3. Team Totals

East Carolina total 77.5Actual: East Carolina over 77.5
Over 77.5
35.6%
@ 1.34-32.1pp
Under 77.5
64.4%
@ 2.80+32.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Under
Betano
2.80
East Carolina total 81.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina over 81.5
Over 81.5
22.4%
@ 1.85-28.3pp
Under 81.5
77.6%
@ 2.02+28.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
East Carolina total 85.5Actual: East Carolina under 85.5
Over 85.5
12.6%
@ 2.27-27.2pp
Under 85.5
87.4%
@ 1.50+27.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.50
USC Upstate total 65Actual: USC Upstate over 65
Over 65
75.2%
Under 65
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
USC Upstate total 69 · main lineActual: USC Upstate over 69
Over 69
60.9%
@ 1.88+11.3pp
Under 69
39.1%
@ 1.85-11.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.88
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
USC Upstate total 73Actual: USC Upstate under 73
Over 73
44.9%
Under 73
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread East Carolina -16.5Actual: USC Upstate +16.5
EAST -16.5
10.4%
@ 2.40-30.1pp
USC +16.5
89.6%
@ 1.60+30.1pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Bet365
2.40
Betano
2.18
USC
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52
Spread East Carolina -13.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate +13.5
EAST -13.5
15.7%
@ 1.90-35.3pp
USC +13.5
84.3%
@ 1.93+35.3pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Marathon Be
1.82
BetVictor
1.78
USC
Betano
1.93
Marathon Be
1.91
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Spread East Carolina -10.5Actual: East Carolina -10.5
EAST -10.5
22.7%
@ 1.72-36.8pp
USC +10.5
77.3%
@ 2.30+36.8pp
Best 5 market prices
EAST
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.55
USC
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.00

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: +0.4+0.42nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: -3.8-3.8
-5-2+0+2+51st half1st half: -1.8-1.81st half: +0.4+0.42nd half2nd half: +0.8+0.82nd half: -3.8-3.8
East CarolinaUSC Upstate
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
East CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Florida Atlantic
#164
W
38-36
38
36
+2
A01/02
NCAA
Temple
#205
L
28-35
28
35
-7
H07/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
W
46-31
46
31
+15
H12/02
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A14/02
NCAA
Wichita State
#71
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H19/02
NCAA
Charlotte
#216
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A21/02
NCAA
UTSA Roadrunners
#365
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A26/02
NCAA
Memphis
#277
W
44-30
44
30
+14
H01/03
NCAA
Tulsa
#23
L
28-53
28
53
-25
H06/03
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
44-41
44
41
+3
A08/03
NCAA
73.4Avg total
35.8Scored
37.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)32.237.669.7-5.437%57%
Last 30 at home (18)32.736.569.2-3.839%44%
Last 30 away (12)31.439.270.6-7.733%75%
Last 10 (10)35.837.673.4-1.850%70%
Last 5 (5)35.040.675.6-5.640%80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (25)31.138.269.3-7.128%56%
vs Similar (2)35.531.567.0+4.0100%50%
vs Weaker (3)38.736.375.0+2.367%67%
USC UpstateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Longwood
#202
D
21-21
21
21
+0
H30/01
NCAA
UNC Asheville
#237
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A04/02
NCAA
Charleston Southern
#229
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H07/02
NCAA
High Point
#10
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H13/02
NCAA
Longwood
#202
L
28-31
28
31
-3
A14/02
NCAA
Winthrop
#62
L
27-30
27
30
-3
A19/02
NCAA
Presbyterian
#263
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H21/02
NCAA
Radford
#176
W
30-29
30
29
+1
A27/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H28/02
NCAA
Gardner Webb
#370
W
30-29
30
29
+1
H05/03
NCAA
64.4Avg total
32.4Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 71.5
Last 30 (30)33.633.066.6+0.740%30%
Last 30 at home (16)36.232.168.4+4.150%44%
Last 30 away (14)30.633.964.6-3.329%14%
Last 10 (10)32.432.064.4+0.450%30%
Last 5 (5)33.029.262.2+3.880%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)28.037.665.6-9.60%12%
vs Similar (14)32.933.966.7-1.029%36%
vs Weaker (8)40.626.867.4+13.9100%38%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half winnerActual: East Carolina win
EAST win
no forecast
@ 1.20
USC win
no forecast
@ 4.55
1st half Spread East Carolina -7.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina -7.5
EAST -7.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
USC +7.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
1st half Over/Under 71.5 · main lineActual: Over 71.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.95
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
East Carolina 1st half total 39.5 · main lineActual: East Carolina over 39.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.88
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
USC Upstate 1st half total 31.5 · main lineActual: USC Upstate over 31.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.87
1st half Spread East Carolina -8.5Actual: East Carolina -8.5
EAST -8.5
no forecast
@ 2.05
USC +8.5
no forecast
@ 1.75
1st half Spread East Carolina -6.5Actual: East Carolina -6.5
EAST -6.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
USC +6.5
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 69.5Actual: Over 69.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.72
Under
no forecast
@ 2.10
1st half Over/Under 73.5Actual: Over 73.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.25
Under
no forecast
@ 1.55
1st half Spread East Carolina -9.5Actual: East Carolina -9.5
EAST -9.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
USC +9.5
no forecast
@ 1.60
1st half Spread East Carolina -5.5Actual: East Carolina -5.5
EAST -5.5
no forecast
@ 1.57
USC +5.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
1st half Over/Under 67.5Actual: Over 67.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.47
Under
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Spread East Carolina -10.5Actual: East Carolina -10.5
EAST -10.5
no forecast
@ 2.37
USC +10.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
1st half Spread East Carolina -4.5Actual: East Carolina -4.5
EAST -4.5
no forecast
@ 1.47
USC +4.5
no forecast
@ 2.45
1st half Spread East Carolina -11.5Actual: East Carolina -11.5
EAST -11.5
no forecast
@ 2.62
USC +11.5
no forecast
@ 1.42
1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: East Carolina (regulation)
EAST
no forecast
@ 1.23
Draw
no forecast
@ 26.00
USC
no forecast
@ 4.96

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
EAST win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
USC win + total 151.5
🔒 Pro
Overtime
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: EAST leads at half
🔒 Pro
🔒 4 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
USC Upstate +973.8%2.65
Bet365
2.65		----+38.7ppLost
USC Upstate +870.7%2.85
Bet365
2.85		----+38.2ppLost
USC Upstate +1076.7%2.40
Bet365
2.40		----+37.9ppLost
USC Upstate +1179.4%2.20
Bet365
2.20		----+37.3ppLost
USC Upstate +8.571.6%2.69
Bet365
2.72
Betano
2.65		---+37.2ppLost
USC Upstate +9.574.6%2.48
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45		---+37.1ppLost
USC Upstate +10.577.3%2.19
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.00		--+36.8ppLost
USC Upstate +1281.8%2.05
Bet365
2.05		----+36.8ppLost
USC Upstate +11.579.9%2.11
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.12
1xBet
2.07		--+36.3ppLost
USC Upstate +1384.0%1.91
Marathon Bet
1.96
Bet365
1.86		---+35.4ppPush
USC Upstate +13.584.3%1.87
Betano
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.80		+35.3ppWon
USC Upstate +1486.0%1.79
Marathon Bet
1.85
Bet365
1.74		---+34.5ppWon
USC Upstate +12.582.2%1.95
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
SBO
1.92
BetVictor
1.80		+34.4ppLost
USC Upstate +14.586.3%1.77
Betano
1.82
Marathon Bet
1.78
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.71		-+33.4ppWon
East Carolina under 79.571.4%2.35
Betano
2.35		----+32.9ppLost
USC Upstate +15.588.0%1.65
1xBet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.60		--+32.7ppWon
East Carolina under 80.574.6%2.15
Betano
2.15		----+32.4ppLost
East Carolina under 8382.5%1.83
Marathon Bet
1.83		----+32.0ppPush
USC Upstate +1587.8%1.64
Bet365
1.64		----+31.4ppWon
East Carolina under 82.580.4%1.87
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.87
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		-+30.6ppLost
USC Upstate +16.589.6%1.56
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.52		---+30.1ppWon
East Carolina under 83.583.0%1.75
Betano
1.75		----+29.9ppWon
East Carolina under 8279.9%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+29.9ppLost
USC Upstate +1689.4%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+29.7ppWon
East Carolina under 84.585.3%1.60
Betano
1.60		----+28.6ppWon
USC Upstate +17.590.9%1.48
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.44		---+28.3ppWon
East Carolina under 81.577.6%1.91
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.90
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85		-+28.3ppLost
USC Upstate +1790.8%1.47
Bet365
1.47		----+27.4ppWon
East Carolina under 85.587.4%1.50
Betano
1.50		----+27.2ppWon
East Carolina under 8176.9%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+26.9ppLost
USC Upstate +18.592.2%1.41
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.37		---+26.7ppWon
USC Upstate +1892.1%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+25.8ppWon
East Carolina under 86.589.3%1.42
Betano
1.42		----+25.5ppWon
USC Upstate +19.593.3%1.35
Betano
1.39
Bet365
1.32		---+24.9ppWon
East Carolina under 87.591.0%1.35
Betano
1.35		----+24.2ppWon
USC Upstate +1993.2%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+23.2ppWon
USC Upstate +20.594.2%1.30
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.26		---+22.9ppWon
USC Upstate +2094.2%1.27
Bet365
1.27		----+21.3ppWon
Under 15470.5%1.64
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62		---+13.4ppWon
Under 154.571.1%1.59
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.58		---+13.0ppWon
Under 15572.5%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+12.8ppWon
Under 155.573.1%1.52
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.52		---+12.3ppWon
USC Upstate over 62.581.6%1.31
Betano
1.31		----+12.0ppWon
Under 15674.5%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+12.0ppWon
Under 156.575.0%1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47		---+11.9ppWon
Under 15776.4%1.44
Bet365
1.44		----+11.9ppWon
Under 157.576.8%1.41
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40		---+11.4ppWon
USC Upstate over 65.572.8%1.47
Betano
1.47		----+11.3ppWon
Under 15878.2%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+11.2ppWon
USC Upstate over 64.576.0%1.39
Betano
1.39		----+11.1ppWon
USC Upstate over 63.578.9%1.33
Betano
1.33		----+10.7ppWon
Under 158.578.6%1.36
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.35		---+10.6ppWon
Under 15979.9%1.34
Bet365
1.34		----+10.4ppWon
Under 159.580.3%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+9.3ppWon
Overtime: no94.6%1.02
WilliamHill
1.02
Betano
1.01		---+1.6pp-
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
East Carolina wins
1
USC Upstate wins
DateGameScore
16/11/23East Carolina v USC Upstate81-83
East Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26AUAB83-90
06/03/26HTulsa66-93
01/03/26HMemphis84-68
26/02/26AUTSA Roadrunners82-81
21/02/26ACharlotte56-68
19/02/26HWichita State89-92 OT
14/02/26ARice85-75
12/02/26HUTSA Roadrunners88-72
07/02/26HTemple73-81
01/02/26AFlorida Atlantic76-75
USC Upstatelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26HGardner Webb64-65
28/02/26HGardner Webb71-61
27/02/26ARadford59-71
21/02/26HPresbyterian76-74
19/02/26AWinthrop64-68
14/02/26ALongwood75-82 OT
13/02/26HHigh Point70-95
07/02/26HCharleston Southern100-94 OT
04/02/26AUNC Asheville67-76
30/01/26HLongwood65-60

📊 11. Overall Statistics

East Carolina
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 151.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
USC Upstate
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 151.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

American Conference conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rice110100%100.055.0+45.0
2 Temple110100%68.056.0+12.0
3 UAB1010%78.099.0-21.0
4 UTSA Roadrunners1010%74.095.0-21.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Big South conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 High Point110100%72.057.0+15.0
2 Winthrop1010%98.0103.0-5.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
East Carolina443983
USC Upstate323870
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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