PythiaBasketballBETA
NCAA
Gardner Webb will host NC Greensboro on 18 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the model favouring the visitors who hold a 74% chance of victory over the home side's 26% probability; the projected score is 72-79 and the total points are expected to reach 150.9 with a 4% likelihood of overtime. Gardner Webb entered the season with a 1-2 record, averaging 61.3 points and conceding 83.3, while NC Greensboro sits at 2-2, scoring 81.0 and allowing 70.8, placing them 205th in the league. At home Gardner Webb has won 1 of 1 games, posting 88.0 points and 66.0 allowed, and in the last five contests they have won twice and lost three; their recent outings include a 88-66 victory over Erskine at home and defeats to Texas 50-98 and Uconn 46-86 away. NC Greensboro's road record is 0-2 with 68.5 points scored and 78.0 allowed, and over the last five they also have two wins and three losses, highlighted by a 91-84 home win over Lees-McRae and losses to Illinois 72-82 and Elon 65-74. The game will hinge on whether Gardner Webb can replicate its lone home win and keep the score close to the projected 72-79.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (3) | 61.3 | 83.3 | 144.7 | -22.0 | 33% |
| Season at home (1) | 88.0 | 66.0 | 154.0 | +22.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 48.0 | 92.0 | 140.0 | -44.0 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 66.3 | 81.2 | 147.5 | -14.9 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 61.6 | 79.0 | 140.6 | -17.4 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (27) | 64.8 | 85.6 | 150.3 | -20.8 | 7% |
| vs Similar | no games | ||||
| vs Weaker (2) | 96.5 | 65.5 | 162.0 | +31.0 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (4) | 81.0 | 70.8 | 151.8 | +10.2 | 50% |
| Season at home (2) | 93.5 | 63.5 | 157.0 | +30.0 | 100% |
| Season away (2) | 68.5 | 78.0 | 146.5 | -9.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 79.6 | 76.0 | 155.6 | +3.6 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 79.8 | 72.8 | 152.6 | +7.0 | 40% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 75.1 | 85.5 | 160.6 | -10.4 | 20% |
| vs Similar (11) | 77.8 | 79.0 | 156.8 | -1.2 | 55% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 89.8 | 70.7 | 160.5 | +19.2 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 31.0 | 40.3 | 71.3 | -9.2 | 27% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 33.9 | 37.5 | 71.5 | -3.6 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 28.1 | 43.0 | 71.1 | -14.9 | 13% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 29.3 | 40.0 | 69.3 | -10.7 | 20% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 26.6 | 39.8 | 66.4 | -13.2 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (27) | 30.6 | 41.6 | 72.2 | -11.0 | 19% | - |
| vs Similar | no games | |||||
| vs Weaker (2) | 36.0 | 30.5 | 66.5 | +5.5 | 100% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.2 | 36.1 | 73.3 | +1.1 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 39.1 | 34.4 | 73.5 | +4.7 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 35.3 | 37.7 | 73.0 | -2.5 | 47% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 37.5 | 35.3 | 72.8 | +2.2 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 37.0 | 33.6 | 70.6 | +3.4 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (10) | 35.9 | 38.3 | 74.2 | -2.4 | 30% | - |
| vs Similar (11) | 34.2 | 37.2 | 71.4 | -3.0 | 45% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (6) | 41.5 | 30.7 | 72.2 | +10.8 | 83% | - |
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| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Erskine | 88-66 |
| 06/11/26 | A | Texas | 50-98 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Uconn | 46-86 |
| 06/03/26 | A | High Point | 59-81 |
| 05/03/26 | A | USC Upstate | 65-64 |
| 28/02/26 | A | USC Upstate | 61-71 |
| 27/02/26 | H | UNC Asheville | 71-77 |
| 20/02/26 | A | Radford | 70-82 |
| 17/02/26 | A | Charleston Southern | 66-75 |
| 14/02/26 | H | High Point | 87-112 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/26 | H | Lees-McRae | 91-84 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Illinois (Chi.) | 72-82 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Elon | 65-74 |
| 04/11/26 | H | Milligan | 96-43 |
| 08/03/26 | A | Furman | 75-81 |
| 07/03/26 | A | Wofford | 75-72 |
| 07/03/26 | H | VMI | 84-70 |
| 28/02/26 | A | Samford | 78-87 |
| 27/02/26 | A | Chattanooga Mocs | 85-80 |
| 21/02/26 | H | East Tennessee St | 75-87 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLW | 33% |
| Home | W | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Win % | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 61.3 | 88.0 | 48.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.3 | 66.0 | 92.0 |
| Point differential | -22.0 | +22.0 | -44.0 |
| Avg total | 144.7 | 154.0 | 140.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 33% | 100% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLW | 50% |
| Home | WW | 100% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Win % | 50% | 100% | 0% |
| Points / game | 81.0 | 93.5 | 68.5 |
| Allowed / game | 70.8 | 63.5 | 78.0 |
| Point differential | +10.2 | +30.0 | -9.5 |
| Avg total | 151.8 | 157.0 | 146.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 25% | 50% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  High Point | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 76.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 |
| 2 |  Longwood | 4 | 3 | 1 | 75% | 94.2 | 67.2 | +27.0 |
| 3 |  UNC Asheville | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.5 | 81.8 | -0.2 |
| 4 |  Charleston Southern | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 73.7 | 76.3 | -2.7 |
| 5 | Gardner Webb | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 61.3 | 83.3 | -22.0 |
| 6 |  USC Upstate | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 75.0 | 68.8 | +6.2 |
| 7 |  Winthrop | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 89.0 | 94.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 |  Radford | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 59.7 | 76.7 | -17.0 |
| 9 |  Presbyterian | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 71.7 | 90.7 | -19.0 |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Furman | 4 | 4 | 0 | 100% | 94.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 |
| 2 |  Citadel | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 94.3 | 61.3 | +33.0 |
| 3 |  Western Carolina | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 97.0 | 74.3 | +22.7 |
| 4 | NC Greensboro | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 81.0 | 70.8 | +10.2 |
| 5 |  Samford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 83.0 | 73.0 | +10.0 |
| 6 |  VMI | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 79.5 | 74.8 | +4.8 |
| 7 |  Wofford | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 80.0 | 78.2 | +1.8 |
| 8 |  Mercer | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 78.2 | 80.6 | -2.4 |
| 9 |  Chattanooga Mocs | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 86.7 | 82.7 | +4.0 |
| 10 |  East Tennessee St | 3 | 1 | 2 | 33% | 65.3 | 68.3 | -3.0 |
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