PythiaBasketballBETA
European Championship WomenRound 3· National Basketball Performance Centre
Great Britain W will host Luxembourg W on 17 November 2026 in the European Championship Women, and the Pythia model names the home side as the clear favourite, assigning it a 92% chance of winning and projecting a 79-63 victory; the model's confidence stems from Great Britain's 6-2 season record, 78.4 points per game and 71.0 allowed, and its perfect 4-0 home record with 80.2 points scored and 68.2 allowed, compared to Luxembourg's 3-5 record, 65.0 points per game and 70.4 allowed, and a 1-2 road record with 69.0 points scored and 70.3 allowed. Great Britain's last five games include four wins and one loss, with a recent 85-83 home win over Ukraine and a 68-55 home win over Norway, while Luxembourg's last five feature one win and four losses, including a 49-100 loss to France and a 73-81 loss to Bosnia & Herzegovina. The teams have met twice before, with Great Britain winning both encounters. Pythia gives Great Britain a 92% probability of covering the home line, and the projected total of 142.6 points carries a 2% chance of overtime. The game ends with Great Britain's 79 points against Luxembourg's 63.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 78.4 | 71.0 | 149.4 | +7.4 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 80.2 | 68.2 | 148.5 | +12.0 | 100% |
| Season away (4) | 76.5 | 73.8 | 150.2 | +2.8 | 50% |
| Last 10 (10) | 76.0 | 72.3 | 148.3 | +3.7 | 60% |
| Last 5 (5) | 74.0 | 74.2 | 148.2 | -0.2 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 63.7 | 76.4 | 140.1 | -12.7 | 14% |
| vs Similar (7) | 71.1 | 71.9 | 143.0 | -0.7 | 29% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (16) | 77.8 | 58.8 | 136.6 | +19.1 | 75% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 65.0 | 70.4 | 135.4 | -5.4 | 38% |
| Season at home (5) | 62.6 | 70.4 | 133.0 | -7.8 | 40% |
| Season away (3) | 69.0 | 70.3 | 139.3 | -1.3 | 33% |
| Last 10 (10) | 65.1 | 68.6 | 133.7 | -3.5 | 40% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.2 | 78.8 | 141.0 | -16.6 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 54.6 | 83.7 | 138.3 | -29.1 | 0% |
| vs Similar (7) | 71.0 | 58.6 | 129.6 | +12.4 | 86% |
| vs Weaker (13) | 73.4 | 58.6 | 132.0 | +14.8 | 77% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.4 | 32.1 | 67.4 | +3.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 at home (15) | 34.9 | 33.8 | 68.7 | +1.1 | 40% | - |
| Last 30 away (15) | 35.8 | 30.3 | 66.1 | +5.5 | 60% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.9 | 36.0 | 72.9 | +0.9 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.4 | 36.4 | 70.8 | -2.0 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (7) | 29.9 | 38.6 | 68.4 | -8.7 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 33.6 | 33.0 | 66.6 | +0.6 | 43% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (16) | 38.6 | 28.8 | 67.4 | +9.8 | 75% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 35.1 | 33.5 | 68.6 | +1.6 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (17) | 35.6 | 31.9 | 67.5 | +3.7 | 59% | - |
| Last 30 away (13) | 34.5 | 35.6 | 70.2 | -1.1 | 31% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.9 | 32.7 | 66.6 | +1.2 | 40% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 32.0 | 36.8 | 68.8 | -4.8 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (10) | 28.6 | 40.8 | 69.4 | -12.2 | 0% | - |
| vs Similar (7) | 37.9 | 28.9 | 66.7 | +9.0 | 86% | - |
| vs Weaker (13) | 38.7 | 30.4 | 69.1 | +8.3 | 62% | - |
Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.3 | 19.6 | 48.5% | - | 39.1 |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.9 | 7.3 | 30.7% | - | 22.0 |
| 🏀 Free throws | 13.1 | 10.4 | 79.7% | - | 10.4 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 40.8 | 18.0 | 44.1% | - | 36.0 |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 23.5 | 4.3 | 18.4% | - | 13.0 |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.7 | 13.5 | 72.3% | - | 13.5 |
Great Britain W
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | Ukraine W | 85-83 |
| 11/11/26 | A | France W | 57-104 |
| 17/03/26 | H | Norway W | 68-55 |
| 14/03/26 | H | Austria W | 83-71 |
| 11/03/26 | A | Switzerland W | 77-58 |
| 18/11/25 | A | Norway W | 91-48 |
| 15/11/25 | A | Austria W | 81-85 |
| 12/11/25 | H | Switzerland W | 85-64 |
| 22/06/25 | H | Germany W | 67-80 |
| 20/06/25 | A | Sweden W | 66-75 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/26 | H | France W | 49-100 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Ukraine W | 52-64 |
| 17/03/26 | A | Bosnia & Herzegovina W | 73-81 OT |
| 14/03/26 | H | Israel W | 52-76 |
| 11/03/26 | H | Ireland W | 85-73 |
| 18/11/25 | H | Bosnia & Herzegovina W | 75-39 |
| 15/11/25 | A | Israel W | 65-77 |
| 12/11/25 | A | Ireland W | 69-53 |
| 09/02/25 | A | Montenegro W | 53-86 |
| 06/02/25 | A | Bosnia & Herzegovina W | 78-37 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWWLW | 75% |
| Home | WWWW | 100% |
| Away | LWWL | 50% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 75% | 100% | 50% |
| Points / game | 78.4 | 80.2 | 76.5 |
| Allowed / game | 71.0 | 68.2 | 73.8 |
| Point differential | +7.4 | +12.0 | +2.8 |
| Avg total | 149.4 | 148.5 | 150.2 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 62% | 75% | 50% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 100% (1) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLLLL | 38% |
| Home | WWLLL | 40% |
| Away | WLL | 33% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Win % | 38% | 40% | 33% |
| Points / game | 65.0 | 62.6 | 69.0 |
| Allowed / game | 70.4 | 70.4 | 70.3 |
| Point differential | -5.4 | -7.8 | -1.3 |
| Avg total | 135.4 | 133.0 | 139.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 38% | 40% | 33% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 12% | 0% | 33% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 102.0 | 53.0 | +49.0 |
| 2 |  Serbia W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100% | 82.8 | 65.0 | +17.8 |
| 3 |  Italy W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 69.0 | 55.5 | +13.5 |
| 4 |  Turkey W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 77.5 | 64.5 | +13.0 |
| 5 |  Spain W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 79.0 | 67.5 | +11.5 |
| 6 |  Hungary W | 2 | 2 | 0 | 100% | 67.5 | 60.0 | +7.5 |
| 7 |  Poland W | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 75.4 | 53.2 | +22.1 |
| 8 |  Bulgaria W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 88.6 | 63.1 | +25.5 |
| 9 |  Latvia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 77.9 | 64.2 | +13.6 |
| 10 |  Israel W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 82.4 | 71.2 | +11.1 |
| 11 | Great Britain W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 78.4 | 71.0 | +7.4 |
| 12 |  Belgium W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 86.0 | 74.3 | +11.7 |
| 13 |  Lithuania W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 70.0 | +8.0 |
| 14 |  Finland W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 67% | 78.0 | 82.3 | -4.3 |
| 15 |  Montenegro W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 74.6 | 62.0 | +12.6 |
| 16 |  Greece W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 89.5 | 77.4 | +12.1 |
| 17 |  Croatia W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 80.2 | 73.0 | +7.2 |
| 18 |  Slovenia W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 75.8 | 70.1 | +5.6 |
| 19 |  Austria W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 73.9 | 70.2 | +3.6 |
| 20 |  Ukraine W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 72.0 | 66.4 | +5.6 |
| 21 |  Germany W | 2 | 1 | 1 | 50% | 76.0 | 70.5 | +5.5 |
| 22 |  Slovakia W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 70.1 | 64.6 | +5.5 |
| 23 |  Netherlands W | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 79.1 | 78.0 | +1.1 |
| 24 |  Denmark W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 83.2 | 79.6 | +3.6 |
| 25 | Luxembourg W | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 65.0 | 70.4 | -5.4 |
| 26 |  Portugal W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 67.3 | 67.8 | -0.5 |
| 27 |  Switzerland W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 69.7 | 73.2 | -3.5 |
| 28 |  Ireland W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 73.5 | 80.3 | -6.8 |
| 29 |  Romania W | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 58.7 | 75.0 | -16.3 |
| 30 |  Iceland W | 4 | 1 | 3 | 25% | 64.2 | 84.0 | -19.8 |
| 31 | Bosnia & Herzegovina W | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 71.2 | 85.8 | -14.7 |
| 32 |  North Macedonia W | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17% | 62.5 | 96.5 | -34.0 |
| 33 |  Czech Republic W | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 70.0 | 77.5 | -7.5 |
| 34 | Sweden W | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0% | 73.3 | 88.7 | -15.3 |
| 35 |  Estonia W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 62.0 | 86.8 | -24.8 |
| 36 |  Norway W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 51.0 | 75.8 | -24.8 |
| 37 |  Cyprus W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 54.2 | 80.2 | -26.0 |
| 38 |  Azerbaijan W | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0% | 45.7 | 105.0 | -59.3 |
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