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Illinois vs Fairleigh Dickinson Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 120-45
67-20 53-25
Position#3
Record-
FormWWWWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Illinois 🏆
USA
Vs
96%
■ ILLI 96%■ FAIR 4%
Pythia win probability
Projected 83-62
Projected total 145.7
Fairleigh Dickinson
USA
Position#423
Record-
FormWLLLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Illinois v Fairleigh Dickinson
02 Nov 2026
ILLI120
FAIR45
29 Dec 2023
ILLI104
FAIR71
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Illinois faces Fairleigh Dickinson on 2 November 2026 in the NCAA, with the Pythia model designating Illinois as the clear favourite, assigning it a 96% chance of victory largely because of its dominant 4-1 record in the last five games, including a 71-59 win at home over Iowa and a 65-55 win away against Houston, while Fairleigh Dickinson struggles with a 1-4 record in its recent five outings, most notably a 61-70 loss to Mercyhurst Lakers. The teams have met once before, with Illinois winning 104-71 on 29 December 2023. Pythia projects a final score of 83-62, giving Illinois 83 points and Fairleigh Dickinson 62, for a projected total of 145.7 points. The model assigns a 4% probability to an away win and a 96% probability to a home win, and it estimates a 34% chance that the game will exceed the 152.5 total line. The overtime probability is 1%. Illinois's recent success and Fairleigh Dickinson's recent struggles suggest a decisive outcome, with the projected score reflecting the clear disparity between the two squads.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illinois winWon
96.1%fair 1.04
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Fairleigh Dickinson winLost
3.9%fair 25.65
Best odds100.00
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 01 Nov 07:04 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

IllinoisUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCLA
#73
L
94-95 OT
94
95
-1
A22/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
70-84
70
84
-14
H28/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
80-54
80
54
+26
H04/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
78-72
78
72
+6
A08/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
L
88-91 OT
88
91
-3
H13/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
105-70
105
70
+35
H20/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
76-55
76
55
+21
H22/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A27/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
W
71-59
71
59
+12
H28/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
62-71
62
71
-9
A04/04
NCAA
1H
2H
50-43
36-43
31-38
39-46
41-21
39-33
37-34
41-38
36-30
42-48
40-30
65-40
35-28
41-27
24-22
41-33
28-32
43-27
29-37
33-34
149.5Avg total
78.9Scored
70.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)78.970.6149.5+8.360%
Last 5 (5)75.862.0137.8+13.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)72.074.0146.0-2.043%
vs Weaker (23)83.266.9150.0+16.383%
Fairleigh DickinsonUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wagner
#249
L
72-75 OT
72
75
-3
A31/01
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H06/02
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H07/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
66-59
66
59
+7
H13/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
57-63
57
63
-6
H14/02
NCAA
Chicago State
#363
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A20/02
NCAA
New Haven Chargers
#250
L
77-84
77
84
-7
H22/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
59-76
59
76
-17
A27/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
60-74
60
74
-14
A28/02
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
L
61-70
61
70
-9
A05/03
NCAA
1H
2H
29-33
37-33
31-24
43-34
28-30
27-22
29-25
37-34
25-30
32-33
28-26
32-33
39-55
38-29
33-36
26-40
30-31
30-43
28-35
33-35
131.1Avg total
64.1Scored
67.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)64.167.0131.1-2.940%
Last 5 (5)63.472.6136.0-9.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)60.170.9131.0-10.827%
vs Similar (12)68.073.3141.3-5.317%
vs Weaker (5)72.860.8133.6+12.080%
Over/Under 148.5Actual: Over 148.5
Over 148.5
43.0%
@ 1.57-21.7pp
Under 148.5
57.0%
@ 3.20+21.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.31
Under
Bet365
3.20
Betano
2.22
Over/Under 153.5 · main lineActual: Over 153.5
Over 153.5
31.4%
@ 1.93-18.9pp
Under 153.5
68.6%
@ 2.22+18.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.93
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.80
Marathon Be
1.70
Under
Bet365
2.22
Marathon Be
1.95
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Over/Under 158.5Actual: Over 158.5
Over 158.5
21.3%
@ 2.72-17.7pp
Under 158.5
78.7%
@ 1.70+17.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Bet365
2.10
Under
Marathon Be
1.70
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.39

📊 3. Team Totals

Illinois total 91Actual: Illinois over 91
Over 91
20.9%
Under 91
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illinois total 95 · main lineActual: Illinois over 95
Over 95
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under 95
no forecast
@ 1.85
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.85
Under
Marathon Be
1.85
Illinois total 98.5Actual: Illinois over 98.5
Over 98.5
no forecast
@ 1.87
Under 98.5
no forecast
@ 1.92
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Fairleigh Dickinson total 52.5Actual: Fairleigh Dickinson under 52.5
Over 52.5
no forecast
@ 1.37
Under 52.5
no forecast
@ 4.20
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.29
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.20
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.67
Fairleigh Dickinson total 57 · main lineActual: Fairleigh Dickinson under 57
Over 57
71.3%
@ 1.85+21.3pp
Under 57
28.7%
@ 1.85-21.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.85
Under
BetVictor
1.85
Fairleigh Dickinson total 61Actual: Fairleigh Dickinson under 61
Over 61
55.7%
Under 61
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Illinois -41.5Actual: Illinois -41.5
ILLI -41.5
no forecast
@ 2.27
FAIR +41.5
no forecast
@ 1.68
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Betano
2.27
Bet365
2.10
FAIR
Bet365
1.68
Betano
1.55
Spread Illinois -38.5 · main lineActual: Illinois -38.5
ILLI -38.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
FAIR +38.5
no forecast
@ 2.00
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.83
BetVictor
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Marathon Be
1.73
FAIR
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathon Be
1.75
Spread Illinois -35.5Actual: Illinois -35.5
ILLI -35.5
no forecast
@ 1.54
FAIR +35.5
no forecast
@ 2.35
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Bet365
1.54
Betano
1.53
FAIR
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.32

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: -2.5-2.52nd half2nd half: +5.1+5.12nd half: -0.1-0.1
-6-3+0+3+61st half1st half: +3.6+3.61st half: -2.5-2.52nd half2nd half: +5.1+5.12nd half: -0.1-0.1
IllinoisFairleigh Dickinson
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
IllinoisLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UCLA
#73
W
50-43
50
43
+7
A22/02
NCAA
Michigan
#6
L
31-38
31
38
-7
H28/02
NCAA
Oregon
#293
W
41-21
41
21
+20
H04/03
NCAA
Maryland
#305
W
37-34
37
34
+3
A08/03
NCAA
Wisconsin
#57
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H13/03
NCAA
Penn
#115
W
40-30
40
30
+10
H20/03
NCAA
VCU Rams
#27
W
35-28
35
28
+7
H22/03
NCAA
Houston
#18
W
24-22
24
22
+2
A27/03
NCAA
Iowa
#81
L
28-32
28
32
-4
H28/03
NCAA
Uconn
#11
L
29-37
29
37
-8
A04/04
NCAA
66.6Avg total
35.1Scored
31.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)38.431.669.9+6.870%20%
Last 30 at home (17)38.429.668.0+8.871%12%
Last 30 away (13)38.334.272.5+4.269%31%
Last 10 (10)35.131.566.6+3.670%10%
Last 5 (5)31.229.861.0+1.460%0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)32.137.069.1-4.914%14%
vs Weaker (23)40.329.970.2+10.387%22%
Fairleigh DickinsonLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Wagner
#249
L
29-33
29
33
-4
A31/01
NCAA
Stonehill
#283
W
31-24
31
24
+7
H06/02
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
L
28-30
28
30
-2
H07/02
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
29-25
29
25
+4
H13/02
NCAA
Central Connecticut State
#114
L
25-30
25
30
-5
H14/02
NCAA
Chicago State
#363
W
28-26
28
26
+2
A20/02
NCAA
New Haven Chargers
#250
L
39-55
39
55
-16
H22/02
NCAA
Le Moyne
#240
L
33-36
33
36
-3
A27/02
NCAA
LIU Sharks
#59
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A28/02
NCAA
Mercyhurst Lakers
#206
L
28-35
28
35
-7
A05/03
NCAA
62.5Avg total
30.0Scored
32.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver 75.5
Last 30 (30)30.331.862.1-1.540%7%
Last 30 at home (14)32.629.061.6+3.657%7%
Last 30 away (16)28.234.262.4-6.125%6%
Last 10 (10)30.032.562.5-2.530%10%
Last 5 (5)31.636.668.2-5.020%20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)26.534.761.3-8.29%0%
vs Similar (12)29.432.662.0-3.233%8%
vs Weaker (5)35.627.463.0+8.2100%20%
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
1st half Spread Illinois -20 · main lineActual: Illinois -20
ILLI -20
no forecast
@ 1.85
FAIR +20
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 75.5 · main lineActual: Over 75.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.62
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Illinois 1st half total 46 · main lineActual: Illinois over 46
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
Fairleigh Dickinson 1st half total 27.5 · main lineActual: Fairleigh Dickinson under 27.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.80
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Over/Under 74Actual: Over 74
Over
no forecast
@ 1.85
Under
no forecast
@ 1.85
1st half Spread Illinois -19Actual: Illinois -19
ILLI -19
no forecast
@ 1.87
FAIR +19
no forecast
@ 1.83
1st half Over/Under 77.5Actual: Over 77.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.38
Under
no forecast
@ 1.53
1st half Spread Illinois -21.5Actual: Illinois -21.5
ILLI -21.5
no forecast
@ 1.72
FAIR +21.5
no forecast
@ 2.07
1st half Over/Under 72.5Actual: Over 72.5
Over
no forecast
@ 2.07
Under
no forecast
@ 1.72
1st half Spread Illinois -22.5Actual: Illinois -22.5
ILLI -22.5
no forecast
@ 1.88
FAIR +22.5
no forecast
@ 1.95
1st half Over/Under 70.5Actual: Over 70.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.78
Under
no forecast
@ 2.00
1st half Over/Under 80.5Actual: Over 80.5
Over
no forecast
@ 3.20
Under
no forecast
@ 1.30
1st half Spread Illinois -23.5Actual: Illinois -23.5
ILLI -23.5
no forecast
@ 1.85
FAIR +23.5
no forecast
@ 1.93
1st half Spread Illinois -16.5Actual: Illinois -16.5
ILLI -16.5
no forecast
@ 1.25
FAIR +16.5
no forecast
@ 3.50
1st half Over/Under 68.5Actual: Over 68.5
Over
no forecast
@ 1.53
Under
no forecast
@ 3.25
1st half Spread Illinois -24.5Actual: Illinois -24.5
ILLI -24.5
no forecast
@ 2.22
FAIR +24.5
no forecast
@ 1.57

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
ILLI win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
FAIR win + total 153.5
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: ILLI leads at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: level at half
🔒 Pro
Half-time / full-time: FAIR leads at half
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: close (1-10 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: clear (11-20 points)
🔒 Pro
Winning margin: blowout (21+ points)
🔒 Pro
🔒 8 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Illinois under 88.570.2%4.50
1xBet
4.50		----+49.5ppLost
Illinois under 91.579.7%2.88
1xBet
3.25
Betano
2.50		---+47.4ppLost
Illinois under 90.576.8%2.75
Betano
2.75		----+43.8ppLost
Under 15470.2%2.06
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Marathon Bet
1.90		--+26.5ppLost
Under 15572.3%1.98
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathon Bet
1.87		--+26.5ppLost
Under 154.570.8%1.89
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Marathon Bet
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Betfair
1.83		+26.0ppLost
Under 15674.4%1.93
Bet365
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathon Bet
1.92		--+26.0ppLost
Under 155.572.9%1.86
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathon Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.83
Betfair
1.83		+25.8ppLost
Under 15776.4%1.82
Marathon Bet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80		--+25.6ppLost
Under 156.574.9%1.86
Bet365
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.89
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85		+25.4ppLost
Under 15878.3%1.72
Marathon Bet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.68		--+24.8ppLost
Under 157.576.8%1.69
Marathon Bet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.78
Bet365
1.74
Betano
1.44		-+24.7ppLost
Under 15980.1%1.64
Marathon Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62		---+23.1ppLost
Under 16081.8%1.55
Bet365
1.55		----+22.0ppLost
Under 159.580.4%1.58
Bet365
1.58		----+22.0ppLost
Fairleigh Dickinson over 5771.3%1.85
BetVictor
1.85		----+21.3ppLost
Under 16183.4%1.50
Bet365
1.50		----+20.9ppLost
Under 160.582.1%1.52
Bet365
1.52		----+20.9ppLost
Fairleigh Dickinson over 56.572.3%1.69
Betano
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.50		--+20.0ppLost
Under 16284.9%1.43
Bet365
1.43		----+20.0ppLost
Under 161.583.7%1.45
Bet365
1.45		----+19.5ppLost
Under 16386.3%1.38
Bet365
1.38		----+19.3ppLost
Under 162.585.1%1.40
Bet365
1.40		----+18.9ppLost
Under 16487.6%1.33
Bet365
1.33		----+17.7ppLost
Under 158.578.7%1.58
Marathon Bet
1.70
Bet365
1.66
Betano
1.39		--+17.7ppLost
Under 163.586.5%1.35
Bet365
1.35		----+17.5ppLost
Fairleigh Dickinson over 55.575.5%1.60
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.50		---+17.1ppLost
Under 164.587.8%1.31
Bet365
1.31		----+16.8ppLost
Under 166.590.1%1.22
Bet365
1.22		----+13.9ppWon
Under 171.594.4%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+9.4ppWon
Under 176.597.1%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+7.7ppWon
Under 168.592.1%1.10
Bet365
1.10		----+7.0ppWon
Under 173.595.7%1.04
Bet365
1.04		----+6.0ppWon
Over 128.585.8%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----7.0ppWon
Fairleigh Dickinson under 68.573.0%1.11
1xBet
1.11		-----11.3ppWon
Over 131.581.1%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----11.7ppWon
Over 133.577.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----12.1ppWon
Illinois over 75.578.5%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----15.2ppWon
Over 136.571.6%1.04
Bet365
1.04		-----17.8ppWon
Illinois over 76.575.4%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----18.2ppWon
Illinois over 77.572.2%1.01
Bet365
1.01		-----21.5ppWon
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Illinois wins
0
Fairleigh Dickinson wins
DateGameScore
30/12/23Illinois v Fairleigh Dickinson104-71
Illinoislast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/26AUconn62-71
28/03/26HIowa71-59
27/03/26AHouston65-55
22/03/26HVCU Rams76-55
20/03/26HPenn105-70
13/03/26HWisconsin88-91 OT
08/03/26AMaryland78-72
04/03/26HOregon80-54
28/02/26HMichigan70-84
22/02/26AUCLA94-95 OT
Fairleigh Dickinsonlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/03/26AMercyhurst Lakers61-70
28/02/26ALIU Sharks60-74
27/02/26ALe Moyne59-76
22/02/26HNew Haven Chargers77-84
20/02/26AChicago State60-59
14/02/26HCentral Connecticut State57-63
13/02/26HSt. Francis (PA)66-59
07/02/26HMercyhurst Lakers55-52
06/02/26HStonehill74-58
31/01/26AWagner72-75 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illinois
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 153.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Fairleigh Dickinson
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over 153.5---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Big Ten conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Nebraska110100%106.064.0+42.0
2 Penn State110100%97.057.0+40.0
3 Michigan State110100%96.059.0+37.0
4 Indiana110100%91.057.0+34.0
5 Maryland110100%96.067.0+29.0
6 Michigan110100%84.068.0+16.0
7 Wisconsin110100%75.068.0+7.0
8 Purdue110100%78.072.0+6.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Northeast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Stonehill110100%84.056.0+28.0
2 Central Connecticut State1010%56.068.0-12.0
3 LIU Sharks1010%60.074.0-14.0
4 New Haven Chargers1010%58.074.0-16.0
5 Mercyhurst Lakers1010%43.078.0-35.0
6 Le Moyne1010%64.0106.0-42.0
7 St. Francis (ILL)1010%47.096.0-49.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Illinois6753120
Fairleigh Dickinson202545
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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