Illinois hosts Sam Houston St. on 13 November 2026 in the NCAA, and the Pythia model names Illinois the clear favourite, rating them 99% to win because their season average of 103.3 points per game far outpaces Sam Houston St.'s 87.0, while their opponents allow only 66.3 points compared to Sam Houston St.'s 77.3, and Illinois' 2-0 home record with 116.0 points per game and 57.5 allowed per game shows dominance at home. Both teams are 2-1 for the season, with Illinois scoring 103.3 and allowing 66.3, and Sam Houston St. scoring 87.0 and allowing 77.3; Illinois' last five games include a 112-70 win over Penn and a 120-45 win over Fairleigh Dickinson, while Sam Houston St. has beaten Pepperdine 85-77 and Howard Payne 102-59 but fell 74-96 to Alabama. The Pythia model projects a 94-67 score, with a 160.5 total, giving Illinois a 99% chance to win and a 1% chance for Sam Houston St.; the 169.5 line carries a 29% over probability, and the game is not expected to go into overtime.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Illinois winWon
98.6%fair 1.01
Best odds1.01
Implied94.8%
Edge+3.8pp
Sam Houston St. winLost
1.4%fair 72.95
Best odds100.00
Implied5.2%
Edge-3.8pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 19:44 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Illinois) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 164.5Actual: Over 164.5
Over 164.5
40.1%
@ 1.37-27.2pp
Under 164.5
59.9%
@ 2.85+27.2pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.37
Under
Bet365
2.85
Betano
2.80
Over/Under 169.5 · main lineActual: Over 169.5
Over 169.5
28.7%
@ 1.83-24.9pp
Under 169.5
71.3%
@ 2.10+24.9pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
BetVictor
1.78
WilliamHill
1.73
Marathon Be
1.72
Under
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Be
1.99
SBO
1.88
Over/Under 174.5Actual: Over 174.5
Over 174.5
19.1%
@ 2.20-23.1pp
Under 174.5
80.9%
@ 1.67+23.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.18
Under
Marathon Be
1.67
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
📊 3. Team Totals
Illinois total 99.5Actual: Illinois over 99.5
Over 99.5
28.2%
@ 1.42-36.7pp
Under 99.5
71.8%
@ 2.70+36.7pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.41
Under
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.52
Illinois total 103.5 · main lineActual: Illinois over 103.5
Over 103.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Under 103.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
Over
WilliamHill
1.91
Marathon Be
1.87
Bet365
1.86
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.91
BetVictor
1.85
Marathon Be
1.83
WilliamHill
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Illinois total 107.5Actual: Illinois over 107.5
Over 107.5
no forecast
@ 2.50
Under 107.5
no forecast
@ 1.50
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.35
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Sam Houston St. total 63.5Actual: Sam Houston St. over 63.5
Over 63.5
62.6%
@ 1.44-0.4pp
Under 63.5
37.4%
@ 2.45+0.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.45
Sam Houston St. total 67.5 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. over 67.5
Over 67.5
46.7%
@ 1.85-3.3pp
Under 67.5
53.3%
@ 1.87+3.3pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
Under
Marathon Be
1.87
Betano
1.85
WilliamHill
1.85
BetVictor
1.85
Bet365
1.83
Sam Houston St. total 71.5Actual: Sam Houston St. over 71.5
Over 71.5
31.3%
@ 2.42-6.0pp
Under 71.5
68.7%
@ 1.44+6.0pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Under
Betano
1.44
⚖️ 4. Spread
Spread Illinois -39.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +39.5
ILLI -39.5
no forecast
@ 2.18
SAM +39.5
no forecast
@ 1.62
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Betano
2.18
Bet365
2.15
SAM
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.60
Spread Illinois -36.5 · main lineActual: Sam Houston St. +36.5
ILLI -36.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
SAM +36.5
no forecast
@ 1.91
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Betano
1.91
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
Marathon Be
1.85
1xBet
1.83
SAM
Bet365
1.91
Marathon Be
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.83
SBO
1.81
Spread Illinois -33.5Actual: Sam Houston St. +33.5
ILLI -33.5
no forecast
@ 1.65
SAM +33.5
no forecast
@ 2.20
Best 5 market prices
ILLI
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.60
SAM
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.10
⏱️ 5. Halves
Half by half
IllinoisSam Houston St.
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Illinois under 99.5
71.8%
2.61
Bet365
2.70
Betano
2.52
-
-
-
+36.7pp
Lost
Under 172
76.9%
1.84
Marathon Bet
1.87
SBO
1.85
Bet365
1.80
-
-
+26.9pp
Lost
Under 170
72.8%
1.98
Bet365
2.05
Marathon Bet
1.95
SBO
1.93
-
-
+26.8pp
Lost
Under 171
74.9%
1.89
Bet365
1.95
Marathon Bet
1.87
SBO
1.85
-
-
+26.7pp
Lost
Under 170.5
73.4%
1.93
Betano
2.00
WilliamHill
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.92
SBO
1.88
+26.3pp
Lost
Under 173
78.7%
1.75
Marathon Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.71
-
-
-
+25.7pp
Lost
Under 171.5
75.4%
1.87
Betano
1.90
Marathon Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
SBO
1.88
WilliamHill
1.85
+25.6pp
Lost
Under 172.5
77.3%
1.79
Marathon Bet
1.85
Betano
1.80
WilliamHill
1.80
SBO
1.78
Bet365
1.74
+25.3pp
Lost
Under 169.5
71.3%
1.96
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.05
WilliamHill
2.00
Marathon Bet
1.99
SBO
1.88
+24.9pp
Lost
Under 169
70.7%
2.00
Bet365
2.12
SBO
1.88
-
-
-
+24.3pp
Lost
Under 174
80.5%
1.67
Marathon Bet
1.71
Bet365
1.64
-
-
-
+24.1pp
Lost
Under 173.5
79.1%
1.69
Marathon Bet
1.75
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.66
-
-
+24.0pp
Lost
Under 175
82.2%
1.57
Bet365
1.57
-
-
-
-
+23.3pp
Lost
Under 174.5
80.9%
1.62
Marathon Bet
1.67
Betano
1.60
Bet365
1.60
-
-
+23.1pp
Lost
Under 175.5
82.5%
1.54
Betano
1.55
Bet365
1.54
-
-
-
+22.6pp
Lost
Under 176
83.8%
1.50
Bet365
1.50
-
-
-
-
+21.3pp
Lost
Under 177
85.3%
1.45
Bet365
1.45
-
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Under 176.5
84.1%
1.47
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.47
-
-
-
+21.1pp
Lost
Under 177.5
85.5%
1.42
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.41
-
-
-
+20.6pp
Lost
Under 178
86.7%
1.40
Bet365
1.40
-
-
-
-
+20.5pp
Lost
Under 178.5
86.9%
1.38
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.37
-
-
-
+19.8pp
Lost
Under 179
88.0%
1.34
Bet365
1.34
-
-
-
-
+18.5pp
Lost
Under 179.5
88.2%
1.32
Bet365
1.32
-
-
-
-
+17.7pp
Lost
Illinois (regulation)
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.6pp
Won
Illinois win
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 72.5
72.1%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.31
-
-
-
+3.7pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. under 80.5
91.6%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
+2.0pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. under 78.5
88.2%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
+1.0pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. over 51.5
93.6%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 52.5
92.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
+0.8pp
Won
Sam Houston St. under 76.5
83.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. under 74.5
78.4%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
+0.7pp
Lost
Sam Houston St. over 54.5
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 53.5
90.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-0.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 55.5
87.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 56.5
84.7%
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-
-
-
-
-2.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 58.5
79.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-2.8pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 57.5
82.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.08
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 60.5
73.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.20
-
-
-
-
-4.4pp
Won
Illinois over 82.5
87.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-5.5pp
Won
Sam Houston St. over 59.5
76.5%
1.13
Bet365
1.13
-
-
-
-
-5.8pp
Won
Illinois over 84.5
82.6%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-8.5pp
Won
Illinois over 83.5
85.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-8.6pp
Won
Illinois -16.5
82.3%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
-9.9pp
Won
Over 146.5
80.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-10.7pp
Won
Illinois over 85.5
79.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-
-11.6pp
Won
Illinois over 86.5
77.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-12.7pp
Won
Illinois over 87.5
73.8%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
-16.7pp
Won
Over 151.5
71.2%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-17.8pp
Won
Illinois over 88.5
70.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
-
-17.9pp
Won
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Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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