PythiaBasketballBETA
Liga A· Estadio Angel Sandrin
Instituto de Cordoba will host San Lorenzo on 16 November 2026 in the Liga A, and the Pythia model names Instituto as the clear favourite, rating them at a 90% chance of victory thanks to a 6-2 record, 77.9 points scored per game and only 76.5 points allowed, placing them fourth in the league. San Lorenzo, with a 2-6 record, 70.1 points per game and 83.2 points allowed, sits seventeenth and has struggled on the road, going 0-2 in their two away games with 101.5 points allowed per game. Instituto's home form is solid, 3-1 at home, 76.0 points scored and 74.0 allowed, and they have won four of their last five games, including a 92-88 win over Quimsa and a 75-71 home victory against Racing de Chivilcoy. San Lorenzo's last five have been bleak, with only one win and losses to Independiente de Oliva, Atenas and San Martin. Historically, Instituto has dominated the rivalry, winning nine of ten meetings and most recently beating San Lorenzo 86-67 on 21 February 2026. Pythia projects a score of 83-68 for Instituto, a total of 151.1 points, and a 90% probability that Instituto will win; San Lorenzo has only a 10% chance. The model also estimates a 2% chance of overtime.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 77.9 | 76.5 | 154.4 | +1.4 | 75% |
| Season at home (4) | 76.0 | 74.0 | 150.0 | +2.0 | 75% |
| Season away (4) | 79.8 | 79.0 | 158.8 | +0.8 | 75% |
| Last 10 (10) | 77.7 | 76.7 | 154.4 | +1.0 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 76.4 | 74.4 | 150.8 | +2.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 74.6 | 80.4 | 155.0 | -5.9 | 33% |
| vs Similar (16) | 77.1 | 75.3 | 152.4 | +1.8 | 56% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 84.8 | 75.6 | 160.4 | +9.2 | 100% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (8) | 70.1 | 83.2 | 153.4 | -13.1 | 25% |
| Season at home (6) | 69.5 | 77.2 | 146.7 | -7.7 | 33% |
| Season away (2) | 72.0 | 101.5 | 173.5 | -29.5 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 70.1 | 82.2 | 152.3 | -12.1 | 20% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.8 | 84.6 | 147.4 | -21.8 | 20% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 75.7 | 82.4 | 158.0 | -6.7 | 29% |
| vs Similar (8) | 80.9 | 80.9 | 161.8 | +0.0 | 50% |
| vs Weaker (1) | 70.0 | 80.0 | 150.0 | -10.0 | 0% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 38.8 | 38.3 | 77.1 | +0.5 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (14) | 39.9 | 37.8 | 77.6 | +2.1 | 57% | - |
| Last 30 away (16) | 37.9 | 38.8 | 76.7 | -0.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 36.8 | 39.4 | 76.2 | -2.6 | 30% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 36.8 | 41.2 | 78.0 | -4.4 | 20% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (9) | 36.3 | 42.2 | 78.6 | -5.9 | 22% | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 40.2 | 35.9 | 76.2 | +4.3 | 75% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (5) | 38.8 | 38.8 | 77.6 | +0.0 | 40% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 37.5 | 42.8 | 80.3 | -5.3 | 23% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 38.2 | 42.7 | 80.8 | -4.5 | 22% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 36.4 | 43.0 | 79.4 | -6.6 | 25% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 35.4 | 43.5 | 78.9 | -8.1 | 0% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 31.2 | 43.4 | 74.6 | -12.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (21) | 37.2 | 43.5 | 80.7 | -6.3 | 19% | - |
| vs Similar (8) | 38.2 | 40.4 | 78.6 | -2.1 | 38% | - |
| vs Weaker (1) | 37.0 | 47.0 | 84.0 | -10.0 | 0% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 31.4 | 17.7 | 54.4% | 35.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 28.1 | 8.7 | 32.6% | 26.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 19.0 | 13.5 | 72.7% | 13.5 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 34.5 | 19.0 | 54.4% | 38.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 24.9 | 7.5 | 32.6% | 22.5 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.7 | 17.0 | 72.7% | 17.0 |
Instituto de Cordoba
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | San Lorenzo v Instituto de Cordoba | 67-86 |
| 18/10/25 | Instituto de Cordoba v San Lorenzo | 89-86 |
| 08/04/25 | San Lorenzo v Instituto de Cordoba | 72-87 |
| 11/11/24 | Instituto de Cordoba v San Lorenzo | 94-65 |
| 02/04/24 | San Lorenzo v Instituto de Cordoba | 72-75 |
| 16/12/23 | Instituto de Cordoba v San Lorenzo | 66-52 |
| 18/02/23 | Instituto de Cordoba v San Lorenzo | 70-62 |
| 25/01/23 | San Lorenzo v Instituto de Cordoba | 77-84 |
| 03/02/22 | San Lorenzo v Instituto de Cordoba | 84-76 |
| 06/11/21 | Instituto de Cordoba v San Lorenzo | 101-65 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/11/26 | A | Olimpico | 83-82 |
| 08/11/26 | A | Quimsa | 92-88 OT |
| 04/11/26 | H | Racing de Chivilcoy | 75-71 |
| 01/11/26 | H | Gimnasia | 57-58 |
| 22/10/26 | H | Lanus | 75-73 |
| 10/10/26 | H | Ferro | 97-94 OT |
| 03/10/26 | A | Regatas | 63-73 |
| 01/10/26 | A | San Martin | 81-73 |
| 20/05/26 | A | Quimsa | 71-75 |
| 16/05/26 | H | Quimsa | 83-80 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | A | Independiente de Oliva | 89-122 |
| 13/11/26 | A | Atenas | 55-81 |
| 08/11/26 | H | San Martin | 42-75 |
| 07/11/26 | H | Regatas | 70-65 |
| 28/10/26 | H | Platense | 58-80 |
| 18/10/26 | H | Obera TC | 73-78 |
| 17/10/26 | H | Penarol | 85-92 |
| 09/10/26 | H | Gimnasia | 89-73 |
| 18/04/26 | A | Obras Sanitarias | 70-76 |
| 15/04/26 | A | Argentino | 70-80 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WLWWW | 75% |
| Home | WWLW | 75% |
| Away | WLWW | 75% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Win % | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Points / game | 77.9 | 76.0 | 79.8 |
| Allowed / game | 76.5 | 74.0 | 79.0 |
| Point differential | +1.4 | +2.0 | +0.8 |
| Avg total | 154.4 | 150.0 | 158.8 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 83% (6) | 75% (4) | 100% (2) |
| Overtime % | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LWLLL | 25% |
| Home | LLLWL | 33% |
| Away | LL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| Win % | 25% | 33% | 0% |
| Points / game | 70.1 | 69.5 | 72.0 |
| Allowed / game | 83.2 | 77.2 | 101.5 |
| Point differential | -13.1 | -7.7 | -29.5 |
| Avg total | 153.4 | 146.7 | 173.5 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 12% | 17% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 50% (2) | 50% (2) | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Quimsa | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 85.2 | 75.8 | +9.5 |
| 2 |  Penarol | 8 | 7 | 1 | 88% | 82.1 | 74.8 | +7.4 |
| 3 |  Gimnasia | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 77.2 | 74.0 | +3.2 |
| 4 | Instituto de Cordoba | 8 | 6 | 2 | 75% | 77.9 | 76.5 | +1.4 |
| 5 |  Atenas | 7 | 5 | 2 | 71% | 84.4 | 79.0 | +5.4 |
| 6 |  Boca Juniors | 8 | 5 | 3 | 62% | 89.5 | 83.2 | +6.2 |
| 7 |  Independiente de Oliva | 4 | 2 | 2 | 50% | 99.5 | 89.0 | +10.5 |
| 8 |  Olimpico | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 86.8 | 85.4 | +1.4 |
| 9 |  Argentino | 8 | 4 | 4 | 50% | 77.9 | 79.5 | -1.6 |
| 10 |  Obera TC | 7 | 3 | 4 | 43% | 80.0 | 83.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 |  Platense | 8 | 3 | 5 | 38% | 76.9 | 78.6 | -1.8 |
| 12 |  Lanus | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36% | 78.5 | 79.3 | -0.7 |
| 13 |  Racing de Chivilcoy | 9 | 3 | 6 | 33% | 79.4 | 82.8 | -3.3 |
| 14 |  La Union | 6 | 2 | 4 | 33% | 78.2 | 83.2 | -5.0 |
| 15 |  Regatas | 7 | 2 | 5 | 29% | 73.3 | 75.7 | -2.4 |
| 16 |  Ferro | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 81.5 | 85.6 | -4.1 |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 8 | 2 | 6 | 25% | 70.1 | 83.2 | -13.1 |
| 18 |  San Martin | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 81.6 | 87.4 | -5.9 |
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